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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

And finally - the trends in tenure shifts are seen across England, but more pronounced in some places than others..

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

P.s. It seems very unlikely that brexit had a meaningful impact on the trends we reported here.

Also evidence that many landlords switched to incorporation or short lettings as more tax efficient or profitable ventures - important govt rebalances this.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Tax reform quietly helped reshaped the housing market: fewer landlords, more first-time buyers, no clear harm to tenants.

Read more in our @jrf-uk.bsky.social report
www.jrf.org.uk/housing/reba...

Rebalancing the housing market through tax reform

Tax reforms introduced in 2016 marked a decisive shift in housing policy, reducing landlord demand and freeing up homes for first-time buyers (FTBs)

www.jrf.org.uk

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

In our report we suggest some ways in which Government could double down on these tax changes including closing incorporation loop-holes and equalising the tax paid on income from property with income from earnings.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

We need to see a ramping up in the delivery of new homes.

But we don’t need the PRS to start expanding again – new supply can flow into owner occupation and affordable housing, especially social rent.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Still, too many face unaffordable, poor quality, or overcrowded housing, while more young adults are stuck living with parents into their 20s and 30s.

A root cause is not enough homes generally.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

In fact our analysis, and analysis by the ONS, finds that the average share of income spent on rent has edged down slightly since 2016. This holds for lower income households too.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Private renting is still too costly, insecure and often poor quality – pushing many into poverty.

But we found no evidence that the 2016 tax changes made things worse. (And the RRB will rebalance the relationship, giving tenants more stability and security

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

The upshot?

More young people getting on the housing ladder – building equity instead of paying their landlords mortgage. Achieving their aspirations of home ownership and putting down roots.

But what about those still renting?

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Among middle-to-high income 20-34 year olds, home ownership rose from a low of 40% in 2015/16 to 47% by 2023/24.

There are now over a million more owner occupied homes than if the pre-2016 trend had been followed.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

After 2016 growth in buy-to-let lending slowed from 25% a year to just 1%.

Instead first-time buyer lending expanded, increasing from an avg. of £11bn a year to 2015 to on avg. £18bn a year since (in todays money). Their share of new lending increased from 23% to 41%.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

With fewer landlords buying, plus government support and family wealth transfers, first-time buying picked up and the rate of owner occupation increased, reversing years of falling homeownership rates.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Why? One big factor is tax changes.

Ending mortgage interest relief and a higher stamp duty slowed new landlord purchases, net effect being that the sector has held fairly constant in size since 2016 rather than continuing to expand.

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

Everyone knows the private rented sector ballooned after 2000. What’s less commented on: it flatlined after 2016 – and the rate of owner occupation started to recover.

(Note official stats don’t any shrinking of the PRS to 2024)

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29d

New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.

Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.

A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Inside Housing @insidehousing.bsky.social · Aug 11

The times are changing: let’s look to research for understanding and opportunity 

We are proud to sponsor Thinkhouse’s Early Career Researcher’s Prize, which is an opportunity to showcase work to a wide audience, says Bekah Ryder at Altair

dlvr.it

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · Aug 18

Some great graphs, maps and useful analysis in the ONS publication, here:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Private rental affordability, England, Wales and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics

Private rent prices by country and English region, expressed as a percentage of gross monthly income of private renting households. Part of our additional measures of housing affordability series.

www.ons.gov.uk

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · Aug 18

Across 1/3rd of local authorities in England and Wales, average expenditure of incomes on rent was over 30%, a commonly accepted measure of unaffordability.

Every London local authority was above this threshold. Bristol, Bath, Brighton & commuter towns were also v expensive.

Figure 3: The North East and East Midlands had the most affordable rents and the lowest range of affordability ratios

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · Aug 18

On average across England private renters spent 36% of incomes on rent, increasing to 42% in London.

This compares to 26% in Wales and 25% in Northern Ireland. The North East of England is most affordable with private rents at on average around 20% of incomes.

Figure 2: Private rents were above the affordability threshold in FYE 2024 for England, mainly because of high ratios for London

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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · Aug 18

ONS have published new private rented affordability analysis for 2024.

Ratios of rents to incomes dipped in 2022/23 as incomes climbed faster than rents.

Rents have been catching up so affordability has worsened again and seems likely it will continue to worsen through 2025...

Figure 1: Private rents have been consistently above 30% in England, below 30% in Northern Ireland, and usually below 30% in Wales

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Aug 7

We’re hiring a Media Manager 📢

Can you identify compelling news stories that resonate with the mainstream media and political debates?

Do you thrive in shaping strategy and working with colleagues to turn policy ideas into media successes?

Apply: jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c....

Octo Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details

jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and May 2024, wages grew 1.8%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.3%.

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Common Wealth @cmmonwealth.bsky.social · Aug 4

💰 How much public wealth do you think was given away for free via Right to Buy?

1bn? 10bn? 100bn?

Try 200 BILLION pounds.

🧵 Here's how Britain’s most infamous housing policy became its biggest housing disaster — and near the largest privatisation in British history.

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Iain Porter @iainkporter.bsky.social · Jul 29

Govt dropped cuts to PIP, but today's Committee report highlights MPs' concerns that many disabled people will be pushed into poverty by remaining cuts to Universal Credit's health element. In evidence to the inquiry I warned of the hardship this will cause. 1/5

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Tens of thousands at risk of poverty despite Labour’s benefit U-turn, MPs warn

Changes to welfare reforms not enough to protect newly sick and disabled people from financial hardship

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Joseph Elliott

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Jul 25

New job alert 📢

We're hiring a Senior Policy Advisor for our Scotland office.

If you believe as passionately as we do that we can deliver a fairer Scotland free from poverty then this job could be for you. 🔽 1/3

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