Peter Matejic
@statspeter.bsky.social
Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty
Reposted by Peter Matejic
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
December 18, 2025 at 11:33 AM
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
December 5, 2025 at 11:53 AM
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3
November 27, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
November 27, 2025 at 3:47 PM
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
We don't - and there are two effects: larger families already affected by the cap don't gain, and some gaining families won't see the full increase because they will come up against the cap. Looking at www.gov.uk/government/s..., just under half of capped families in May 2025 had 3+ kids (~60k).
Benefit cap: number of households capped to May 2025
www.gov.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:27 AM
We don't - and there are two effects: larger families already affected by the cap don't gain, and some gaining families won't see the full increase because they will come up against the cap. Looking at www.gov.uk/government/s..., just under half of capped families in May 2025 had 3+ kids (~60k).
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
November 26, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
See gov.uk/government/p... for the DWP analysis and look out for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis on overall living standards shortly, showing there is more to do to tackle this more broadly.
gov.uk
November 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
See gov.uk/government/p... for the DWP analysis and look out for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis on overall living standards shortly, showing there is more to do to tackle this more broadly.
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
November 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
November 24, 2025 at 3:45 PM
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
Congratulations - this has been very useful
November 13, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Congratulations - this has been very useful
With earnings barely increasing, many families are likely to experience mounting financial pressures, eroding living standards.
November 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
With earnings barely increasing, many families are likely to experience mounting financial pressures, eroding living standards.
Weak real earnings growth will be particularly concerning for lower-income households. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, with food and housing costs continuing to rise faster than the overall price level.
November 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Weak real earnings growth will be particularly concerning for lower-income households. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, with food and housing costs continuing to rise faster than the overall price level.
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
November 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
We need an independent process to advise on a standard allowance rate that reflects what people need to afford the essentials, and for rates to quickly move towards that level.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
We need an independent process to advise on a standard allowance rate that reflects what people need to afford the essentials, and for rates to quickly move towards that level.
The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.
This means the standard allowance is set to rise from £92 to £98 per week for singles and from £145 to £154 per week for couples. However it will remain below the level needed to afford a basic basket of essentials.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
This means the standard allowance is set to rise from £92 to £98 per week for singles and from £145 to £154 per week for couples. However it will remain below the level needed to afford a basic basket of essentials.
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
Thanks Noah, but I'm looking at UK not US earnings - see www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan... for the official data I am using.
Average weekly earnings in Great Britain - Office for National Statistics
Estimates of growth in earnings for employees before tax and other deductions from pay.
www.ons.gov.uk
October 16, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Thanks Noah, but I'm looking at UK not US earnings - see www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan... for the official data I am using.
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
October 14, 2025 at 8:26 AM
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.
September 25, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.
Unless we get strong growth in one of the next two months' data, annual earnings growth will fall to ~zero in data out on 11th Nov, before Budget, highlighting the importance of decisions there.
September 16, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Unless we get strong growth in one of the next two months' data, annual earnings growth will fall to ~zero in data out on 11th Nov, before Budget, highlighting the importance of decisions there.
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
September 16, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 1:06 PM
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
After a year of a new govt people on low to middle incomes are still struggling to reach the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) 📢
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
September 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.
August 14, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.