Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Pinned
Are Investors Dreaming The Impossible Dream?
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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Eric ...
thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: Are Investors Dreaming The Impossible Dream? thefelderreport.com/2025/11/22/a...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
the credit default swaps continue to move up and to the right
CRWV ORCL
CRWV ORCL
November 24, 2025 at 1:25 PM
the credit default swaps continue to move up and to the right
CRWV ORCL
CRWV ORCL
NEW POST: Are Investors Dreaming The Impossible Dream? thefelderreport.com/2025/11/22/a...
Are Investors Dreaming The Impossible Dream?
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
LINK
Eric ...
thefelderreport.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:54 PM
NEW POST: Are Investors Dreaming The Impossible Dream? thefelderreport.com/2025/11/22/a...
‘The core pattern remains: large increases in compute and engineering produce modest, targeted improvements rather than broad advances. This is made more stark by the presence of Moonshot's Kimi near the top of the chart. Reports suggest it cost < $10m to train.’ paulkedrosky.com/on-benchmark...
November 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
‘The core pattern remains: large increases in compute and engineering produce modest, targeted improvements rather than broad advances. This is made more stark by the presence of Moonshot's Kimi near the top of the chart. Reports suggest it cost < $10m to train.’ paulkedrosky.com/on-benchmark...
Americans With Four-Year Degrees Now Comprise a Record 25% of Unemployed Workers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 22, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Americans With Four-Year Degrees Now Comprise a Record 25% of Unemployed Workers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Historical data shows that Americans’ intuitions about the future of the labour market are often close to the mark.‘ ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
November 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
‘Historical data shows that Americans’ intuitions about the future of the labour market are often close to the mark.‘ ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
‘The S&P has intermediate and longer-term DeMark Combo and Sequential sell Countdown 13 exhaustion signals in play. Previous Combo 13s have seen reversals of 20% on average but the evidence is that a top is in and a new high might not be seen for more than a year.’ substack.com/inbox/post/1...
November 22, 2025 at 6:21 PM
‘The S&P has intermediate and longer-term DeMark Combo and Sequential sell Countdown 13 exhaustion signals in play. Previous Combo 13s have seen reversals of 20% on average but the evidence is that a top is in and a new high might not be seen for more than a year.’ substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
WAPO jumps into the circular-revenue graphic game.
@washingtonpost.com $ORCL $NVDA
www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
@washingtonpost.com $ORCL $NVDA
www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
November 22, 2025 at 1:53 PM
WAPO jumps into the circular-revenue graphic game.
@washingtonpost.com $ORCL $NVDA
www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
@washingtonpost.com $ORCL $NVDA
www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
“They think they’re investing, because they’re not going to the physical location of a casino, but the fact is what they’re doing is similar to that, sometimes much worse because of the accessibility and how easy it is to do it on a 24/7 basis.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Why It’s Harder to Tell Gambling From Investing Nowadays
With a tap on your phone, bet on football, elections and the price a stock will hit just hours from now.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
“They think they’re investing, because they’re not going to the physical location of a casino, but the fact is what they’re doing is similar to that, sometimes much worse because of the accessibility and how easy it is to do it on a 24/7 basis.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
“Long term supply is dwindling. We see an environment where oil demand will continue to rise coupled with decades of underinvestment, creating a supply constrained environment for oil.” www.offshore-mag.com/special-repo...
Report: Long-term oil supply dwindling, new discoveries needed
Prolonged declines in exploration and a slower energy transition sets up the case for higher oil prices, according to Melius Research.
www.offshore-mag.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:29 PM
“Long term supply is dwindling. We see an environment where oil demand will continue to rise coupled with decades of underinvestment, creating a supply constrained environment for oil.” www.offshore-mag.com/special-repo...
‘Some Republicans in Congress have warned that Trump’s embrace of lighter-touch AI regulation could hurt them electorally, according to a person close to the party leadership, amid concerns about job losses, high energy prices or child safety due to AI.‘ www.ft.com/content/e087...
Donald Trump’s support for pro-AI proposal fuels Maga backlash
US president endorses move to restrict regulation by states after lobbying from Silicon Valley
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:14 PM
‘Some Republicans in Congress have warned that Trump’s embrace of lighter-touch AI regulation could hurt them electorally, according to a person close to the party leadership, amid concerns about job losses, high energy prices or child safety due to AI.‘ www.ft.com/content/e087...
’Today’s eye-popping AI valuations are partly based on the assumption that LLMs are the main game in town. Might a new AI approach break the control of the Big Tech companies currently trying to outspend their way to LLM dominance?’ www.ft.com/content/e05d...
Behind the AI bubble, another tech revolution could be brewing
Today’s eye-popping valuations are based on the assumption that LLMs are the only game in town
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
’Today’s eye-popping AI valuations are partly based on the assumption that LLMs are the main game in town. Might a new AI approach break the control of the Big Tech companies currently trying to outspend their way to LLM dominance?’ www.ft.com/content/e05d...
“We’ve seen an expansion of the ecosystem to include companies with weaker balance sheets like Oracle and CoreWeave, more debt and we’ve also seen more interlocking and circular revenue relationships. That interconnectivity between the players brings systemic risk.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 21, 2025 at 3:50 PM
“We’ve seen an expansion of the ecosystem to include companies with weaker balance sheets like Oracle and CoreWeave, more debt and we’ve also seen more interlocking and circular revenue relationships. That interconnectivity between the players brings systemic risk.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
German Power Prices Surge as Fossil Fuel Use Hits 9-Month High www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
German Power Prices Surge as Fossil Fuel Use Hits 9-Month High www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Inflation started to pick up in spring 2021 and peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. By the beginning of 2025, the middle class had spent down all their extra savings, often to keep up with higher costs. Wage increases weren’t much help—they were consumed by inflation, too.‘ www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation
Workers are growing tired of an economy in which everything seems to get more expensive.
www.wsj.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:20 PM
‘Inflation started to pick up in spring 2021 and peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. By the beginning of 2025, the middle class had spent down all their extra savings, often to keep up with higher costs. Wage increases weren’t much help—they were consumed by inflation, too.‘ www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
‘Japan’s headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% Y/Y. Core inflation (ex-fresh food) also ticked up to 3.0%, while the “core-core” measure (ex-food and energy) rose to 3.1%. The increases were driven by yen-sensitive durable goods and accommodation charges.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/21/u...
November 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
‘Japan’s headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% Y/Y. Core inflation (ex-fresh food) also ticked up to 3.0%, while the “core-core” measure (ex-food and energy) rose to 3.1%. The increases were driven by yen-sensitive durable goods and accommodation charges.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/21/u...
”If you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5T in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500B in annual depreciation expense, more than their combined profits for 2025.” - @peterberezin.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 2:59 PM
”If you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5T in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500B in annual depreciation expense, more than their combined profits for 2025.” - @peterberezin.bsky.social
“This is a concerning setup for the Nasdaq 100. This would be the 21st time the index opened 1.5%+ higher but still closed the day 1% or lower. The last two occurrences marked short-term dips, but historically the 1-week to 1-month returns that follow have been weak.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/802
November 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
“This is a concerning setup for the Nasdaq 100. This would be the 21st time the index opened 1.5%+ higher but still closed the day 1% or lower. The last two occurrences marked short-term dips, but historically the 1-week to 1-month returns that follow have been weak.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/802
'Investors have sunk more than $60 billion into OpenAI, recently valuing it at $500 billion, on the belief it will continue to dominate the market for developing AI that creates content and reasons the way humans do. That domination is teetering.' www.theinformation.com/articles/ope...
OpenAI CEO Warns of ‘Headwinds’ From Resurgent Google
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told colleagues last month that Google’s recent progress in artificial intelligence could “create some temporary economic headwinds for our company,” though he added that OpenAI ...
www.theinformation.com
November 21, 2025 at 12:23 AM
'Investors have sunk more than $60 billion into OpenAI, recently valuing it at $500 billion, on the belief it will continue to dominate the market for developing AI that creates content and reasons the way humans do. That domination is teetering.' www.theinformation.com/articles/ope...
'During past capex booms, equity prices have typically peaked before investment declined. And even when investment fell off its highs, it usually did so at levels that continued to add to excess capacity.' www.bcaresearch.com/reports/when... by @peterberezin.bsky.social
November 20, 2025 at 9:02 PM
'During past capex booms, equity prices have typically peaked before investment declined. And even when investment fell off its highs, it usually did so at levels that continued to add to excess capacity.' www.bcaresearch.com/reports/when... by @peterberezin.bsky.social
'A company can play with shadow banking if it’s in the shadows. But the hyperscalers’ deals are so big that every tidbit has to be carefully scrutinized. Their financial acrobatics is fooling no one.' www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
November 20, 2025 at 8:37 PM
'A company can play with shadow banking if it’s in the shadows. But the hyperscalers’ deals are so big that every tidbit has to be carefully scrutinized. Their financial acrobatics is fooling no one.' www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
'Nvidia is making money selling shovels in a gold rush. But one thing to bear in mind is this: the main reason that anyone remembers the shovel vendors of the late 1800s is that there didn’t turn out to be all that much gold in the end.' garymarcus.substack.com/p/nvidias-ea...
November 20, 2025 at 8:33 PM
'Nvidia is making money selling shovels in a gold rush. But one thing to bear in mind is this: the main reason that anyone remembers the shovel vendors of the late 1800s is that there didn’t turn out to be all that much gold in the end.' garymarcus.substack.com/p/nvidias-ea...
‘He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within 2 minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Blvd with this guy, right?”’ fortune.com/2025/11/20/d...
One of the world’s most popular economists on why AI is ‘undoubtedly going to crash’: It’s built on ‘digital lettuce’—and the U.S. will be just fine anyway | Fortune
Irish economist David McWilliams is taking his “History of Money” to America: “You kind of feel the boominess of the place, right?” he told Fortune.
fortune.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
‘He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within 2 minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Blvd with this guy, right?”’ fortune.com/2025/11/20/d...
’History has a cautionary lesson for Nvidia and AI investors more generally. While Cisco‘s sales growth never reached the parabolic heights attained by Nvidia, it did hold at pretty strong levels and even seemed to be re-accelerating...until it fell off a cliff.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 20, 2025 at 6:27 PM
’History has a cautionary lesson for Nvidia and AI investors more generally. While Cisco‘s sales growth never reached the parabolic heights attained by Nvidia, it did hold at pretty strong levels and even seemed to be re-accelerating...until it fell off a cliff.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
Why Bond Investors Aren’t Totally Buying the AI Hype www.man.com/insights/vie...
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Why Bond Investors Aren’t Totally Buying the AI Hype www.man.com/insights/vie...
‘If the “golden constant” holds, gold’s real value may eventually level out or revert. Plotting 10-year real gold returns against real gold prices shows quite a significant negative relationship between real returns and real gold prices.’ www.man.com/insights/gol...
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
‘If the “golden constant” holds, gold’s real value may eventually level out or revert. Plotting 10-year real gold returns against real gold prices shows quite a significant negative relationship between real returns and real gold prices.’ www.man.com/insights/gol...