Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report: https://thefelderreport.com
Pinned
'There Is No Training For This'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
QUOTE
The ...
thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...
'A weaker dollar will reduce the weight of American assets in global indices, forcing benchmark-hugging investors to sell them. That will further weaken the greenback, feeding a vicious cycle.' www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 5, 2026 at 8:11 PM
'A weaker dollar will reduce the weight of American assets in global indices, forcing benchmark-hugging investors to sell them. That will further weaken the greenback, feeding a vicious cycle.' www.economist.com/finance-and-...
‘Altman’s frustration perfectly illustrates how AI companies have driven themselves into a corner. Either they can charge a hefty monthly fee to cut their losses and reassure investors or scare away users through annoying ads.‘ futurism.com/artificial-i...
Sam Altman Is Spiraling
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared on X that he thinks Anthropic's ads are "funny" — before posting a lengthy screed about how they're unfair.
futurism.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:48 PM
‘Altman’s frustration perfectly illustrates how AI companies have driven themselves into a corner. Either they can charge a hefty monthly fee to cut their losses and reassure investors or scare away users through annoying ads.‘ futurism.com/artificial-i...
‘If there is a danger of financial disruption, it comes from the effect on quant investors’ portfolios.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
February 5, 2026 at 6:41 PM
‘If there is a danger of financial disruption, it comes from the effect on quant investors’ portfolios.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
I wrote about the crypto crash and why this is the worst crypto winter in the industry's history.
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
February 5, 2026 at 5:43 PM
I wrote about the crypto crash and why this is the worst crypto winter in the industry's history.
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
‘Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi is reducing its exposure to US dollar assets and turning to European and emerging markets, its chief executive has said.’ www.ft.com/content/20d0...
Amundi says it will cut exposure to US over coming year
€2.4tn asset manager is latest to voice concern over US policymaking and its impact on dollar assets
www.ft.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:17 PM
‘Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi is reducing its exposure to US dollar assets and turning to European and emerging markets, its chief executive has said.’ www.ft.com/content/20d0...
‘Investors and advisers to companies planning to go public this year are concerned not only about initial trading, but also that the standard six-month lockup period might prompt significant selling that pressures shares.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Exclusive | SpaceX Seeks Early Index Entry as It Prepares Massive IPO
Advisers to Elon Musk have reached out to major index providers seeking ways to secure earlier inclusion in market benchmarks to lift shares.
www.wsj.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:08 PM
‘Investors and advisers to companies planning to go public this year are concerned not only about initial trading, but also that the standard six-month lockup period might prompt significant selling that pressures shares.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
“The real risk in private credit is not a sudden explosion, it’s a slow burn: losses that stay hidden for a long time, then show up quietly in lower returns, weaker insurer balance sheets and disappointed savers, without ever triggering a classic financial crisis.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending
Investors have been drawn to high yields—but opacity, complexity and hidden “cockroaches” are worth worrying about.
www.bloomberg.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:00 PM
“The real risk in private credit is not a sudden explosion, it’s a slow burn: losses that stay hidden for a long time, then show up quietly in lower returns, weaker insurer balance sheets and disappointed savers, without ever triggering a classic financial crisis.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
‘While some buyers of gold and silver are motivated by narratives about the demise of fiat money, others just want to buy whatever has gone up. These return-chasing investors are pursuing a wealth-destroying strategy of “buy high, sell low.”’ www.acadian-asset.com/investment-i...
Fear of missing out on global catastrophe (FOMOOGC) | Acadian Asset Management
www.acadian-asset.com
February 5, 2026 at 5:43 PM
‘While some buyers of gold and silver are motivated by narratives about the demise of fiat money, others just want to buy whatever has gone up. These return-chasing investors are pursuing a wealth-destroying strategy of “buy high, sell low.”’ www.acadian-asset.com/investment-i...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
This seems important
www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipm...
www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipm...
Samsung to ramp up HBM4 DRAM output capacity by 70% to meet rising Nvidia, AMD demand - KED Global
Samsung Electronics Co. plans on a sweeping expansion of its next-generation DRAM production lines, increasing capacity for advanced memory used in high-bandwi
www.kedglobal.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:41 PM
This seems important
www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipm...
www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipm...
‘As for the GENIUS Act, having set the stage for another destructive experiment in free banking, it may well be remembered as the Reckless Idiot Act. The current US approach is a recipe for financial and economic instability.’ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c...
The Coming Crypto Apocalypse
Nouriel Roubini thinks the writing is on the wall for an industry that has offered no use cases beyond crime and corruption.
www.project-syndicate.org
February 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM
‘As for the GENIUS Act, having set the stage for another destructive experiment in free banking, it may well be remembered as the Reckless Idiot Act. The current US approach is a recipe for financial and economic instability.’ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c...
’Spending 40% of annual revenue on AI chips and related infrastructure is a sizable gamble. And that comes as the market is growing more worried about how AI will disrupt established tech players including many cloud software providers that are major customers of Google.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/goog...
February 5, 2026 at 3:56 PM
’Spending 40% of annual revenue on AI chips and related infrastructure is a sizable gamble. And that comes as the market is growing more worried about how AI will disrupt established tech players including many cloud software providers that are major customers of Google.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/goog...
‘Pundits have a long record of claiming that a new form of media had made advertising dollars recession-proof, only to be disproved by a subsequent downturn.’ www.economist.com/finance-and-...
AI is not the only threat menacing big tech
Are Meta and Google ads really recession-proof?
www.economist.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:49 PM
‘Pundits have a long record of claiming that a new form of media had made advertising dollars recession-proof, only to be disproved by a subsequent downturn.’ www.economist.com/finance-and-...
China Trader Who Made $3 Billion on Gold Bets Big Against Silver www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 5, 2026 at 3:31 PM
China Trader Who Made $3 Billion on Gold Bets Big Against Silver www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Japan’s policy makers need to stop battling symptoms like Yen depreciation or yield spikes and focus instead on confronting the underlying problem, which is the public debt overhang.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Japan's FX interventions don't work
The most recent episode is just more evidence that Japan's FX interventions don't work
robinjbrooks.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM
‘Japan’s policy makers need to stop battling symptoms like Yen depreciation or yield spikes and focus instead on confronting the underlying problem, which is the public debt overhang.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
“This is a very split market. 16% of S&P 500 stocks are at 52 week highs while 5% are at 52 week lows. This only happened 3 other times: July 1990, August 2015, March 2025. Each were followed by at least a -10% #$SPX correction in the next 2 months.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/848
February 5, 2026 at 3:03 PM
“This is a very split market. 16% of S&P 500 stocks are at 52 week highs while 5% are at 52 week lows. This only happened 3 other times: July 1990, August 2015, March 2025. Each were followed by at least a -10% #$SPX correction in the next 2 months.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/848
”Cyclical leadership is usually a positive for stock market returns; however, Energy leadership has been the exception. The S&P 500 has fallen at a greater than 7% annualize pace when Energy has been the top-performing sector, on average.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/848 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
February 5, 2026 at 3:01 PM
”Cyclical leadership is usually a positive for stock market returns; however, Energy leadership has been the exception. The S&P 500 has fallen at a greater than 7% annualize pace when Energy has been the top-performing sector, on average.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/848 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Felder
RENMAC:
“.. While there is quite a bit of attention on AI driving layoffs, most of the reasons cited in this data set are about ‘closing,’ ‘economic conditions,’ ‘restructuring,’ and ‘loss of contract.’ AI is a comparatively small factor behind the January jump in layoff news.”
“.. While there is quite a bit of attention on AI driving layoffs, most of the reasons cited in this data set are about ‘closing,’ ‘economic conditions,’ ‘restructuring,’ and ‘loss of contract.’ AI is a comparatively small factor behind the January jump in layoff news.”
February 5, 2026 at 2:51 PM
RENMAC:
“.. While there is quite a bit of attention on AI driving layoffs, most of the reasons cited in this data set are about ‘closing,’ ‘economic conditions,’ ‘restructuring,’ and ‘loss of contract.’ AI is a comparatively small factor behind the January jump in layoff news.”
“.. While there is quite a bit of attention on AI driving layoffs, most of the reasons cited in this data set are about ‘closing,’ ‘economic conditions,’ ‘restructuring,’ and ‘loss of contract.’ AI is a comparatively small factor behind the January jump in layoff news.”
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Reposted by Jesse Felder
February 5, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Reposted by Jesse Felder
remember that VIX is not a fear index (as many believe). it’s a temperature gauge of the market that informs of SPX is sick/weak or healthy/strong. the correct interpretation isn’t, “people are scared” it’s “something may be wrong”
February 4, 2026 at 11:35 PM
remember that VIX is not a fear index (as many believe). it’s a temperature gauge of the market that informs of SPX is sick/weak or healthy/strong. the correct interpretation isn’t, “people are scared” it’s “something may be wrong”
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Utter buying panic in Walmart. The stock now topping 43x forward earnings for the next 12 months.
Echo of last year's momentum stampede into Costco (which peaked on Feb. 13)?
Echo of last year's momentum stampede into Costco (which peaked on Feb. 13)?
February 4, 2026 at 7:10 PM
Utter buying panic in Walmart. The stock now topping 43x forward earnings for the next 12 months.
Echo of last year's momentum stampede into Costco (which peaked on Feb. 13)?
Echo of last year's momentum stampede into Costco (which peaked on Feb. 13)?
'LLMs are great, but they aren’t AGI, and they aren’t reliable. Moreover, they are expensive to operate, and because many companies can build roughly the same thing, they are commodities.' garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman...
Sam Altman and the day Nvidia’s meteoric rise came to an end
Happy half anniversary, GPT-5
garymarcus.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 9:13 PM
'LLMs are great, but they aren’t AGI, and they aren’t reliable. Moreover, they are expensive to operate, and because many companies can build roughly the same thing, they are commodities.' garymarcus.substack.com/p/sam-altman...
Why the Next Oil Crisis Will Be More Dangerous www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
February 4, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Why the Next Oil Crisis Will Be More Dangerous www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
‘First, the logic of lending to software companies has broken down. Second, the allure of private credit itself is starting to erode.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
February 4, 2026 at 6:19 PM
‘First, the logic of lending to software companies has broken down. Second, the allure of private credit itself is starting to erode.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
“This industry has never gone through a down cycle, so it makes a lot of sense that investors are especially jittery.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Once the Hottest Bet on Wall St., Private Credit Has Started to Crack
www.nytimes.com
February 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM
“This industry has never gone through a down cycle, so it makes a lot of sense that investors are especially jittery.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...