Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Jesse Felder

@jessefelder.bsky.social

2K followers 83 following 2.9K posts

Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Pinned

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 3d

NEW POST: How Do You Measure A Bubble? thefelderreport.com/2025/10/04/h...

How Do You Measure A Bubble?

Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. PODCAST Ho...

thefelderreport.com

5 3 15

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 9h

Unusually high GLD volume is associated with tops or pre-tops. Don't shoot the messenger.

1 5 13

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 6h

Very kind of you. Thanks so much.

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 12h

“The guy at the epicenter, Nvidia, is basically starting to do what all ultimate bad actors do in the final inning, which is extending financing, they’re buying their investors.“ fortune.com/2025/10/07/a...

75% of gains, 80% of profits, 90% of capex—AI’s grip on the S&P is total and Morgan Stanley's top analyst is 'very concerned' | Fortune

The long bull market since 2022 is a "one-note narrative" since the explosion of ChatGPT, according to Lisa Shalett, CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

fortune.com

1 9

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 12h

‘There was a sharp increase in the short interest of the largest leveraged inverse ETFs in the weeks after Liberation Day, which remains high today. The unwinding of these positions would only intensify a rise in volatility and selloff in stocks.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

3 7

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 12h

‘The previous two times the real expected earnings yield was negative, in the late 1990s and in 2022, both corresponded with market tops. Today the expected earnings yield is even more negative, at around -1%.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

4 20

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 12h

MOODY’S: Twenty-two states are either in a recession or on the precipice of a downturn. 👀

@axios.com 🇺🇸
www.axios.com/newsletters/...

43 200 470

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 12h

'Bank research finds that if policymakers are uncertain about the persistence of inflation — as they are likely to be in the case of a supply shock — policy should respond more forcefully to inflation than under conditions of certainty.’ www.ft.com/content/c774...

Central banks need to learn lessons about supply shocks

We now know that the inflation that often follows can be persistent rather than transitory

www.ft.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 12h

’Jane is not alone in reckoning this is a big growth area. Citadel is looking for US physical gas specialists; Balyasny and Qube have started trading physical gas in Europe; and Jain Global last month acquired Anahau Energy to fast-track its own business in the field.‘ www.ft.com/content/f03a...

Jane Street is getting physical

In commodities at least

www.ft.com

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 12h

BTIG: “.. Consumer Continues to Give a Bad Message. Equal-Weight discretionary continues to plunge vs. equal-weight S&P.

“.. $XRT remains weak along with restaurants and homebuilders are quietly -15% from Sep. highs.” 👀

6 31 130

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 13h

completing the h/s top

2 18

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 12h

BTIG: “There is something going on” with Private Equity that is not getting enough attention ..

“.. has plunged ~14%, while HY spreads (up until a few days ago) were 'tighter'. Spreads have now widened three days in a row .. means there is a lot riding on the AI narrative holding up.”

13 53 190

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 13h

Robinhood Founders Join World’s Richest in Risky Trading Revival www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Robinhood Founders Join World’s Richest in Risky Trading Revival

Robinhood Markets Inc.’s co-founders have joined the ranks of the world’s richest after their trading firm mounted a comeback as unpredictable as the markets it opened to millions of everyday investor...

www.bloomberg.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 13h

“Spikes in inflation expectations unrelated to gas and food price increases could signal that the risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored, as they did in the late 1970s, has increased noticeably.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Rising Inflation Expectations Pose Risk for the Fed, Study Says

The most recent spike in inflation expectations poses a bigger risk than past episodes to the US central bank’s ability to tame price pressures, according to a recent paper from the Federal Reserve Ba...

www.bloomberg.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 13h

‘Gilder, who got blindsided by the telecom collapse, scoffs at the current data center mania. “It’s way overbuilding,” he says by phone from his home in the Berkshire hills of Mass. He’s bullish on AI, he says, but thinks data centers are yesterday’s technology.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘I Believe It’s a Bubble’: What Some Smart People Are Saying About AI

A growing group of critics say we’re in an artificial intelligence bubble. Is it true? If so, how would we know?

www.bloomberg.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 13h

Bill Dudley: “What’s the most likely outcome of the artificial intelligence boom? Economic transformation or huge losses for investors? Yes.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

AI Can Transform the Economy and Still Be a Bubble

The crash probably won’t be like 2008, though.

www.bloomberg.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 13h

‘We are witnessing not just historically rich valuations but also a return to the kind of risk-taking that was so prevalent in the run-up to the 2008 GFC. The Fed is likely to be increasingly worried about further inflating asset prices and fueling bubbles.’ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...

As Growth Decouples From Employment, the Fed Faces a Trilemma

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks macroeconomic and market trends are giving the US central bank reason to fear for financial stability.

www.project-syndicate.org

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 14h

‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...

1 4 14

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 14h

‘History never repeats but often rhymes. The current environment echoes central bank inflection points of January 2020 (after the Fed had just completed its 2019 "insurance cuts" amid trade war concerns) and July 2024 when markets were pricing in a dovish pivot.’ www.man.com/insights/vie...

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 14h

“The market is saying, ‘You guys are going to inflate away the debt, not now but in the long term.” www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

1 2 8

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 14h

1 2

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 14h

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 18h

The massive rally in gold prices (lhs) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22 isn't about Dollar debasement. After all, the Dollar is currently at a multi-month high (rhs). Instead, the rally is about debasement fears across all advanced economy currencies, including Euro and Yen.

5 5 23

Reposted by Jesse Felder

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 16h

You kinda gotta 👀 that references to the “debasement trade” are surging amid US Dollar Spot Index heading to multi-month high

4 5 32

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 15h

‘Leverage combined with dramatic policymaking is proving to be a volatile mix. Investors struggling to understand why some people are worried about the economy, even when stock indexes are flying high, might find explanations within less-visible parts of the market.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/how-...

How Trump Threw a Wrench Into Credit Markets

Tariffs and other policy swings are exposing strains at highly indebted companies within less visible parts of the market.

www.wsj.com

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 15h

‘McKinsey reckons that nearly 60% of the growth in American wealth since 2000 has been “on paper” (ie, beyond what actual economic growth would justify).’ www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The stockmarket is fuelling America’s economy

What happens in the event of a slump?