Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report: https://thefelderreport.com
Pinned
Another Changing Of The Guard
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
STAT
Histo...
thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...
"So you aggregate the Mag7... you're talking like 20-30% of the overall S&P 500 buyback. So that's a huge point because... buybacks are like 7-8x the largest source of demand for equities over the past 15 years." -Charlie McElligott www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lots More With Charlie McElligott on This Week's SaaSpocalypse
A terrible few days for software, crypto, and more.
www.bloomberg.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:50 PM
"So you aggregate the Mag7... you're talking like 20-30% of the overall S&P 500 buyback. So that's a huge point because... buybacks are like 7-8x the largest source of demand for equities over the past 15 years." -Charlie McElligott www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count on.
Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected.
The ghosts of Burns, Miller, and Martin (not to mention Powell) loom over Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected.
The ghosts of Burns, Miller, and Martin (not to mention Powell) loom over Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
These Presidents Found Out How Trying to Control the Fed Chair Can Backfire
President Trump thinks his new chair can deliver low interest rates. Three presidents in the past learned otherwise.
www.wsj.com
February 8, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count on.
Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected.
The ghosts of Burns, Miller, and Martin (not to mention Powell) loom over Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected.
The ghosts of Burns, Miller, and Martin (not to mention Powell) loom over Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
“.. a simple chart of large cap US energy companies. In the words of a client who has been-there-and-done-that, we’re moving into the ‘revenge of the dinosaurs’ phase of the game now.”
- GS desk #$XLE
- GS desk #$XLE
February 8, 2026 at 3:59 PM
“.. a simple chart of large cap US energy companies. In the words of a client who has been-there-and-done-that, we’re moving into the ‘revenge of the dinosaurs’ phase of the game now.”
- GS desk #$XLE
- GS desk #$XLE
‘In the past hundred years, whenever a currency’s value fell significantly vs. gold (in other words, it took more currency to buy gold, or “the gold price went up”), signs of “monetary inflation” erupted soon afterwards. This is what happened in 1973.‘ www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...
Here Comes $10 Gasoline
Retail gasoline prices could rise to $10, just as we warned in our 2022 book Inflation.
www.forbes.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:46 PM
‘In the past hundred years, whenever a currency’s value fell significantly vs. gold (in other words, it took more currency to buy gold, or “the gold price went up”), signs of “monetary inflation” erupted soon afterwards. This is what happened in 1973.‘ www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...
‘Big tech’s dramatic ramp-up in projected capex this year will all but wipe out free cash flow for Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms. That will force some of those companies to make some difficult choices such as whether to end stock buybacks or borrow more.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/cap...
February 7, 2026 at 6:57 PM
‘Big tech’s dramatic ramp-up in projected capex this year will all but wipe out free cash flow for Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms. That will force some of those companies to make some difficult choices such as whether to end stock buybacks or borrow more.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/cap...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
The paradigm has shifted. Time to update your priors.
February 7, 2026 at 5:11 PM
The paradigm has shifted. Time to update your priors.
NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...
Another Changing Of The Guard
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
STAT
Histo...
thefelderreport.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:10 PM
NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...
‘Natural gas has grown extremely volatile as US liquefied natural gas exports and the artificial intelligence boom supercharge demand.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Two Minutes That Made Traders Lose Faith in the Gas Market
From an erroneous trading halt to speculation about “banging the close,” the US gas market is showing signs of strain
www.bloomberg.com
February 7, 2026 at 4:11 PM
‘Natural gas has grown extremely volatile as US liquefied natural gas exports and the artificial intelligence boom supercharge demand.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“A similar pattern emerged in 2000. After Tech peaked in March of that year, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45%, even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4%, respectively.” www.barrons.com/articles/tec...
A Tech Bust Gave Way to a Broader Rally. What Comes Next Could Be Ugly.
Well before the past week’s gyrations, the stock market’s character already had undergone a significant transformation, one that resembled what followed the dot-com boom at the end of the last century...
www.barrons.com
February 7, 2026 at 4:04 PM
“A similar pattern emerged in 2000. After Tech peaked in March of that year, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45%, even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4%, respectively.” www.barrons.com/articles/tec...
’Big Tech’s AI push is bigger than the railroad expansion of the 1850s, the Apollo space program that put astronauts on the moon in the 1960s and the decadeslong build-out of the U.S. interstate highway system that ended in the 1970s.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-s...
February 7, 2026 at 3:48 PM
’Big Tech’s AI push is bigger than the railroad expansion of the 1850s, the Apollo space program that put astronauts on the moon in the 1960s and the decadeslong build-out of the U.S. interstate highway system that ended in the 1970s.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-s...
‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
February 7, 2026 at 3:27 PM
‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
‘The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when #$XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
February 7, 2026 at 3:25 PM
‘The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when #$XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
“Energy funds see 2nd biggest weekly inflow ever.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
February 7, 2026 at 3:21 PM
“Energy funds see 2nd biggest weekly inflow ever.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
'Across three AI companies where we have data (Anthropic, Minimax and Z.ai), compute accounts for more than salaries, marketing, and all other spending combined. Across all three, expenses were 2-3x larger than revenues.' epochai.substack.com/p/in-both-ch...
February 6, 2026 at 10:44 PM
'Across three AI companies where we have data (Anthropic, Minimax and Z.ai), compute accounts for more than salaries, marketing, and all other spending combined. Across all three, expenses were 2-3x larger than revenues.' epochai.substack.com/p/in-both-ch...
'The AI capex spending multiple has collapsed and gone negative.' paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the...
February 6, 2026 at 10:40 PM
'The AI capex spending multiple has collapsed and gone negative.' paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the...
‘Solid tech earnings mask a more concerning trend emerging: returns on invested capital among hyperscalers are starting to decline.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
February 6, 2026 at 5:56 PM
‘Solid tech earnings mask a more concerning trend emerging: returns on invested capital among hyperscalers are starting to decline.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘The job-opening rate for finance workers reached 2% in December, the lowest since the survey began 15 years ago. In professional and business services, openings were at the lowest since April 2020, the early days of the pandemic.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
‘The job-opening rate for finance workers reached 2% in December, the lowest since the survey began 15 years ago. In professional and business services, openings were at the lowest since April 2020, the early days of the pandemic.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
A widening gap between the VIX and individual S&P 500 stock volatility suggests stress may be spreading stock-by-stock, not just at the index—appearing near Nasdaq 100 highs.
We break down what it could mean in the February Financial Forecast. tinyurl.com/44w5tbzs
We break down what it could mean in the February Financial Forecast. tinyurl.com/44w5tbzs
February 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM
A widening gap between the VIX and individual S&P 500 stock volatility suggests stress may be spreading stock-by-stock, not just at the index—appearing near Nasdaq 100 highs.
We break down what it could mean in the February Financial Forecast. tinyurl.com/44w5tbzs
We break down what it could mean in the February Financial Forecast. tinyurl.com/44w5tbzs
‘Buybacks have been a major source of equity demand in recent years. But now, the landscape has shifted again as the biggest companies in the market started opt to spend their money on AI. And so companies themselves are no longer acting as volatility dampeners.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
February 6, 2026 at 5:04 PM
‘Buybacks have been a major source of equity demand in recent years. But now, the landscape has shifted again as the biggest companies in the market started opt to spend their money on AI. And so companies themselves are no longer acting as volatility dampeners.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
'It is important to keep in mind that the precious metals mania is just one extreme area of excess in the financial system. In cryptocurrency, private capital and indeed the current AI-fuelled stock market boom, periods of spectacular gains should act as red flags.’ www.ft.com/content/0397...
The cautionary tale of gold and silver
Precious metals mania is just one area of excess in the financial system
www.ft.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:27 PM
'It is important to keep in mind that the precious metals mania is just one extreme area of excess in the financial system. In cryptocurrency, private capital and indeed the current AI-fuelled stock market boom, periods of spectacular gains should act as red flags.’ www.ft.com/content/0397...
"Higher capex telegraphs that it may take longer for AI strategies to play out. Not welcome news for investors that are already fixated on when AI-related revenue will start to show up.” www.ft.com/content/0e7f...
February 6, 2026 at 4:21 PM
"Higher capex telegraphs that it may take longer for AI strategies to play out. Not welcome news for investors that are already fixated on when AI-related revenue will start to show up.” www.ft.com/content/0e7f...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
B of A: “.. THIS IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST INFRASTRUCTURE/INVESTMENT THEMES OF OUR LIFETIME. Inflation adjusted.”
February 6, 2026 at 3:54 PM
B of A: “.. THIS IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST INFRASTRUCTURE/INVESTMENT THEMES OF OUR LIFETIME. Inflation adjusted.”
‘Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis don’t agree on much but the data-center boom is a rare exception. Vermont’s Democratic Socialist senator and Florida’s right-wing governor want to slam the brakes on the hundreds of new AI facilities springing up across the country.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
AI Has Turned Bernie and DeSantis Into Unlikely Allies
Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis don’t agree on much, but the data-center boom is a rare exception. Vermont’s Democratic Socialist senator and Florida’s right-wing governor want to slam the brakes on t...
www.bloomberg.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:08 PM
‘Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis don’t agree on much but the data-center boom is a rare exception. Vermont’s Democratic Socialist senator and Florida’s right-wing governor want to slam the brakes on the hundreds of new AI facilities springing up across the country.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
“For DATs with no revenue, no operating business, and no way to exit their treasury positions without destroying the market for those positions, the drawdown is existential. We call this the Hotel California trade: You can check in, but you can’t check out.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Crypto-Hoarding Firms Pose Fresh Threat to Market After Selloff
Crypto-hoarding treasury companies, which helped turbocharge a digital-asset rally in last year’s first nine months, are now at risk of sparking market contagion as selling pressure mounts.
www.bloomberg.com
February 6, 2026 at 4:05 PM
“For DATs with no revenue, no operating business, and no way to exit their treasury positions without destroying the market for those positions, the drawdown is existential. We call this the Hotel California trade: You can check in, but you can’t check out.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Inflation pressures are building, driven by higher wages, higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar.’ www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-ou...
February 6, 2026 at 3:50 PM
‘Inflation pressures are building, driven by higher wages, higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar.’ www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-ou...