Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report: https://thefelderreport.com
Pinned
'There Is No Training For This'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
QUOTE
The ...
thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...
Why the Next Oil Crisis Will Be More Dangerous www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
February 4, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Why the Next Oil Crisis Will Be More Dangerous www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
‘First, the logic of lending to software companies has broken down. Second, the allure of private credit itself is starting to erode.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
February 4, 2026 at 6:19 PM
‘First, the logic of lending to software companies has broken down. Second, the allure of private credit itself is starting to erode.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
“This industry has never gone through a down cycle, so it makes a lot of sense that investors are especially jittery.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Once the Hottest Bet on Wall St., Private Credit Has Started to Crack
www.nytimes.com
February 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM
“This industry has never gone through a down cycle, so it makes a lot of sense that investors are especially jittery.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
‘A downbeat mood among US consumers is showing up in corporate results as companies that sell them food, drinks and household goods warn of soft sales.‘ www.ft.com/content/6aea...
Food and drink companies suffer as US shopper sentiment sinks
Groups report soft sales and plans to cut prices as consumer confidence falls to its weakest level in more than a decade
www.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 6:07 PM
‘A downbeat mood among US consumers is showing up in corporate results as companies that sell them food, drinks and household goods warn of soft sales.‘ www.ft.com/content/6aea...
“We basically tapped every single project finance bank possible, but there are only so many banks,” said a banker familiar with Oracle’s fundraising. “Banks will have to offload that risk if they want to keep lending.” www.ft.com/content/90aa...
Banks seek out new buyers for Oracle data centre loans
Rare investment-grade rating helps attract insurers and private credit funds to construction debt
www.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 5:57 PM
“We basically tapped every single project finance bank possible, but there are only so many banks,” said a banker familiar with Oracle’s fundraising. “Banks will have to offload that risk if they want to keep lending.” www.ft.com/content/90aa...
‘More than $17.7 billion of US tech company loans dropped to distressed trading levels during the past four weeks, with the total tech distressed debt pile at about $46.9 billion.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 4, 2026 at 5:43 PM
‘More than $17.7 billion of US tech company loans dropped to distressed trading levels during the past four weeks, with the total tech distressed debt pile at about $46.9 billion.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘For almost a decade, OpenAI was an asset for Microsoft. Last Wednesday, OpenAI became something new for its biggest investor: a liability.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Microsoft’s Deal With OpenAI Now Viewed as a Risk, Not Reward
The partnership, once applauded, now faces a skeptical audience
www.bloomberg.com
February 4, 2026 at 4:33 PM
‘For almost a decade, OpenAI was an asset for Microsoft. Last Wednesday, OpenAI became something new for its biggest investor: a liability.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
‘OpenAI is facing growing skepticism from the markets about its cash burn and future profitability. OpenAI has effectively funded its data center buildout by leveraging the balance sheets of its partners. That strategy may no longer work.’ www.theinformation.com/newsletters/...
Why Big Tech Companies Are Racing to Fund OpenAI
Nvidia could invest around $30 billion, Amazon is down for at least $20 billion and Microsoft is looking at $10 billion as part of a $100 billion fundraising for OpenAI. SoftBank will bring the AI com...
www.theinformation.com
February 4, 2026 at 4:28 PM
‘OpenAI is facing growing skepticism from the markets about its cash burn and future profitability. OpenAI has effectively funded its data center buildout by leveraging the balance sheets of its partners. That strategy may no longer work.’ www.theinformation.com/newsletters/...
”Over the past week, we have observed a clustering of Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The Nasdaq 100 Index tends to perform weakly in the following 3 to 6 months.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/847 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
February 4, 2026 at 4:10 PM
”Over the past week, we have observed a clustering of Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The Nasdaq 100 Index tends to perform weakly in the following 3 to 6 months.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/847 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
“Staples gained more than 1.5% today while Tech fell more than 2%, the second time that’s happened in the last 3 trading sessions. Outside of Q1’25, the only other times we’ve seen this was during the early 2000s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/847
February 4, 2026 at 3:59 PM
“Staples gained more than 1.5% today while Tech fell more than 2%, the second time that’s happened in the last 3 trading sessions. Outside of Q1’25, the only other times we’ve seen this was during the early 2000s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/847
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent
Total bankruptcy filings rose 11 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2025.
www.uscourts.gov
February 4, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
CAPITAL ECON: ".. ISM services prices paid index jumped back up to 66.6, up 1.5-points from 65.1 in December. While still below its three-year-high of 70.0 last October, the figure does imply that PCE core services ex-housing (aka 'supercore') inflation may remain above target for some time .."
February 4, 2026 at 3:45 PM
CAPITAL ECON: ".. ISM services prices paid index jumped back up to 66.6, up 1.5-points from 65.1 in December. While still below its three-year-high of 70.0 last October, the figure does imply that PCE core services ex-housing (aka 'supercore') inflation may remain above target for some time .."
Blue Owl, Ares Lead Private Market Firms Bashed by Software Risk www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 4, 2026 at 12:53 AM
Blue Owl, Ares Lead Private Market Firms Bashed by Software Risk www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘I think the merger is really a kind of bailout, to give a lot of cash to a company that is otherwise in distress. Fact is, xAI ain’t doing all that great. It’s burning money fast, with no obvious business model or market niche, and has little to show for it.‘ garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theor...
Four theories about the SpaceX - xAI merger
Spoiler alert: it’s probably not really about synergy
garymarcus.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 8:14 PM
‘I think the merger is really a kind of bailout, to give a lot of cash to a company that is otherwise in distress. Fact is, xAI ain’t doing all that great. It’s burning money fast, with no obvious business model or market niche, and has little to show for it.‘ garymarcus.substack.com/p/four-theor...
‘Since 1930, the S&P 500 Index has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm, according to data compiled by Barclays.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 3, 2026 at 8:06 PM
‘Since 1930, the S&P 500 Index has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm, according to data compiled by Barclays.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘While many of the fundamental factors that fueled the rise in gold remain largely intact, be warned: since 1975, silver has never made a new high in the year after falling like this.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
February 3, 2026 at 7:46 PM
‘While many of the fundamental factors that fueled the rise in gold remain largely intact, be warned: since 1975, silver has never made a new high in the year after falling like this.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
'Last September, Levi’s warned of “rising anti-Americanism as a consequence of the Trump tariffs and governmental policies”. Chris Kempczinski, McDonald’s CEO, said that “the aura around America has dimmed a bit”.’ www.ft.com/content/3276...
American brands have lost their cool
As boycotts spread, the US is discovering the price of being politically unpopular
www.ft.com
February 3, 2026 at 7:28 PM
'Last September, Levi’s warned of “rising anti-Americanism as a consequence of the Trump tariffs and governmental policies”. Chris Kempczinski, McDonald’s CEO, said that “the aura around America has dimmed a bit”.’ www.ft.com/content/3276...
‘Investors believe that the rapid IPO timeline is more about Musk’s desire to beat OpenAI and Anthropic to the public markets. Bankers fear that there may not be enough cash in the public markets to shoulder all three at once, giving the first mover the advantage.‘ www.ft.com/content/9d2b...
How Elon Musk used SpaceX to rescue xAI and build a $1.25tn colossus
Billionaire folds rocket maker into a lossmaking AI start-up, betting scale and control can beat rivals to blockbuster IPO
www.ft.com
February 3, 2026 at 7:22 PM
‘Investors believe that the rapid IPO timeline is more about Musk’s desire to beat OpenAI and Anthropic to the public markets. Bankers fear that there may not be enough cash in the public markets to shoulder all three at once, giving the first mover the advantage.‘ www.ft.com/content/9d2b...
‘Is collecting the $300 billion from OpenAI still “probable” in management’s judgment? The answer has to be yes, under the accounting rules, for Oracle to include the sum in its RPOs.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what...
What Oracle Has to Lose From OpenAI and Nvidia’s Rocky Relationship
Nvidia’s OpenAI pivot puts Oracle’s accounting in the spotlight.
www.wsj.com
February 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM
‘Is collecting the $300 billion from OpenAI still “probable” in management’s judgment? The answer has to be yes, under the accounting rules, for Oracle to include the sum in its RPOs.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Small Traders Are Long and Aggressive
YouTube video by Elliott Wave International
youtube.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 PM
‘Broadly, Big Tech companies are transitioning from low to high capex "with limited disclosure" about financial details, which could mean the expense of the AI buildout is being miscalculated, Morgan Stanley notes.’ www.axios.com/2026/02/03/s...
The AI buildout is getting cash strapped
The biggest tech companies are increasingly getting creative with their balance sheets as they finance their AI ambitions.
www.axios.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:56 PM
‘Broadly, Big Tech companies are transitioning from low to high capex "with limited disclosure" about financial details, which could mean the expense of the AI buildout is being miscalculated, Morgan Stanley notes.’ www.axios.com/2026/02/03/s...
‘Fiscal policy is out of control almost everywhere.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckl... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
February 3, 2026 at 4:19 PM
‘Fiscal policy is out of control almost everywhere.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckl... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Felder
bullish strategists and PMs have no clue how much they are relying on the dispersion trade holding
February 3, 2026 at 4:11 PM
bullish strategists and PMs have no clue how much they are relying on the dispersion trade holding
'Six months ago, SanDisk shares were trading hands at around $45 a pop. The sellside saw this as a little cheap, with a consensus 12-month price target just shy of $51. Today, SanDisk shares are about $665 a pop and the sellside now thinks they could be worth nearly $700.’ www.ft.com/content/c6f1...
February 3, 2026 at 4:04 PM
'Six months ago, SanDisk shares were trading hands at around $45 a pop. The sellside saw this as a little cheap, with a consensus 12-month price target just shy of $51. Today, SanDisk shares are about $665 a pop and the sellside now thinks they could be worth nearly $700.’ www.ft.com/content/c6f1...
“January will be remembered as the month when silver traded like a meme stock.” www.ft.com/content/8c69...
Silver’s runaway rally becomes ‘death trap’ for Reddit’s retail crowd
Meteoric rise — and thumping sell-off — has seen the volatile precious metal compared to a ‘meme stock’
www.ft.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM
“January will be remembered as the month when silver traded like a meme stock.” www.ft.com/content/8c69...