John Carey
@johncarey.bsky.social
New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:19 PM
New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.
Reposted by John Carey
Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days.
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
Constitutional Crisis or a Stalemate? John Carey and Gretchen Helmke on the State of American Democracy - New Books Network
newbooksnetwork.com
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days.
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
Reposted by John Carey
New podcast on threats to democracy and academic freedom in the US with my Bright Line Watch colleagues @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke
Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days.
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
Constitutional Crisis or a Stalemate? John Carey and Gretchen Helmke on the State of American Democracy - New Books Network
newbooksnetwork.com
May 12, 2025 at 12:23 PM
New podcast on threats to democracy and academic freedom in the US with my Bright Line Watch colleagues @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke
Reposted by John Carey
FABULOUS conversation with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke from Bright Line Watch about the April report on American democracy. @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast coming! Meanwhile, check out the newest report and follow @brendannyhan.bsky.social
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
Threats to democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days | Bright Line Watch
brightlinewatch.org
May 7, 2025 at 12:56 PM
FABULOUS conversation with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke from Bright Line Watch about the April report on American democracy. @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast coming! Meanwhile, check out the newest report and follow @brendannyhan.bsky.social
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
New report from BrightLineWatch.org with lots on threats to academic freedom as well as updates on the state of American democracy. With @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, and Sue Stokes
May 5, 2025 at 1:28 PM
New report from BrightLineWatch.org with lots on threats to academic freedom as well as updates on the state of American democracy. With @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, and Sue Stokes
Reposted by John Carey
Republicans who say they are more aligned with Trump than the GOP are somewhat less likely to rate democracy favorably and more likely to view strongman rule positively. In total, 55% of Trump supporters endorse a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with Congress.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Republicans who say they are more aligned with Trump than the GOP are somewhat less likely to rate democracy favorably and more likely to view strongman rule positively. In total, 55% of Trump supporters endorse a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with Congress.
Reposted by John Carey
Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
Reposted by John Carey
Political science and misinformation experts assessed technology-related threats to democracy similarly, though misinformation experts rated Meta's loosened content moderation rules and the revoking of the Biden AI executive order as more threatening to democracy than political science experts.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Political science and misinformation experts assessed technology-related threats to democracy similarly, though misinformation experts rated Meta's loosened content moderation rules and the revoking of the Biden AI executive order as more threatening to democracy than political science experts.
Reposted by John Carey
Experts rate Jan. 6 pardons and firings of executive branch officials as the gravest threats to American democracy, followed closely by the roles and influence of Musk/DOGE. These actions were widely approved by Republicans.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Experts rate Jan. 6 pardons and firings of executive branch officials as the gravest threats to American democracy, followed closely by the roles and influence of Musk/DOGE. These actions were widely approved by Republicans.
Reposted by John Carey
-Expert ratings of US democracy lowest since we began tracking in 2017
-The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.
-The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.
February 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
-Expert ratings of US democracy lowest since we began tracking in 2017
-The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.
-The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.
Re-upping @brendannyhan.bsky.social alert on the new Bright Line Watch report on the first month of Trump 2. New data on attitudes toward democracy, executive aggrandizement, and political violence.
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-...
-Expert ratings of US democracy at post-2016 low
-55% of Trump-aligned Rs approve of "strong leader who does not have to bother w/Congress"
-Jan 6 pardons, exec branch firings, Musk influence rated as grave threats
🧵 of results below
-Expert ratings of US democracy at post-2016 low
-55% of Trump-aligned Rs approve of "strong leader who does not have to bother w/Congress"
-Jan 6 pardons, exec branch firings, Musk influence rated as grave threats
🧵 of results below
February 24, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Re-upping @brendannyhan.bsky.social alert on the new Bright Line Watch report on the first month of Trump 2. New data on attitudes toward democracy, executive aggrandizement, and political violence.
Read and heed from @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social. This is the best overview I've seen, not just of the last few weeks, but of what to expect in the next few years, and how history (ours and, yes, from other countries) can instruct us - www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Path to American Authoritarianism
What comes after democratic breakdown.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 11, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Read and heed from @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social. This is the best overview I've seen, not just of the last few weeks, but of what to expect in the next few years, and how history (ours and, yes, from other countries) can instruct us - www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by John Carey
📣MORE OF THIS!
Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
A Constitutional Crisis?
We’re covering an imbalance of power in the government.
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2025 at 1:38 PM
📣MORE OF THIS!
Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
Reposted by John Carey
“The president is openly violating the law & Constitution on a daily basis”- @brendannyhan.bsky.social
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend...
“We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend...
“We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”
February 7, 2025 at 1:11 PM
“The president is openly violating the law & Constitution on a daily basis”- @brendannyhan.bsky.social
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend...
“We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend...
“We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”
Reposted by John Carey
Right now: Phenomenal conference on the erosion of democracy & the rule of law. Many speakers emphasizing the critical need to "make legible" what is happening in the US today--those who have the freedom to speak out must continue to do so as many are being intimidated into silence.
Extremely timely conference tomorrow: Democracy & the Rule of Law Under Pressure in DC at McCourt/Georgetown Law
www.law.georgetown.edu/event/democr...
Schedule
www.law.georgetown.edu/wp-content/u...
Registration
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
My panel is 10:45 AM-12 PM; join us! (media esp.)
www.law.georgetown.edu/event/democr...
Schedule
www.law.georgetown.edu/wp-content/u...
Registration
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
My panel is 10:45 AM-12 PM; join us! (media esp.)
February 7, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Right now: Phenomenal conference on the erosion of democracy & the rule of law. Many speakers emphasizing the critical need to "make legible" what is happening in the US today--those who have the freedom to speak out must continue to do so as many are being intimidated into silence.
@brendannyhan.bsky.social and brand new survey data from Bright Line Watch featured in @nytimes.com The Morning newsletter with German Lopez. We're on new and unfamiliar terrain here.
NYT's The Morning newsletter with the clearest explanation of the crisis we now face - expert ratings of US democracy in our Bright Line Watch survey have already plummeted to levels not seen during Trump's first term
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
February 7, 2025 at 6:02 PM
@brendannyhan.bsky.social and brand new survey data from Bright Line Watch featured in @nytimes.com The Morning newsletter with German Lopez. We're on new and unfamiliar terrain here.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/u...
This is government by 8 year-old boys
This is government by 8 year-old boys
Interior Department Says Gulf of Mexico Is Now ‘Gulf of America’
Trump also renamed Denali, North America’s tallest peak, as Mount McKinley, despite objections from Alaska’s senators.
www.nytimes.com
January 25, 2025 at 4:48 PM
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/u...
This is government by 8 year-old boys
This is government by 8 year-old boys
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this
Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this
Opinion | How to Fix America’s Two-Party Problem
Proportional representation could help restore American democracy.
www.nytimes.com
January 15, 2025 at 2:51 AM
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this
Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this
Outstanding back and forth on current threats to democracy, pessimism bias among experts, and how to correct for it - featuring @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @smotus.bsky.social, and BrightLineWatch.org data. Catch it (recommending 1.75x speed) at www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...
Threats to democracy in the 2nd Trump administration - Niskanen Center
Trump has promised to remake the federal bureaucracy in his own image and go after his political opponents and the media in his 2nd administration. But there are signals that public protest and civil ...
www.niskanencenter.org
January 9, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Outstanding back and forth on current threats to democracy, pessimism bias among experts, and how to correct for it - featuring @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @smotus.bsky.social, and BrightLineWatch.org data. Catch it (recommending 1.75x speed) at www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...
Reposted by John Carey
How concerned should we be about backsliding during the second Trump term? Have past concerns come to fruition? Bright Light Watch asked experts to assign probabilities to concrete "bad" events in several past waves and the most recent one. We collaborated on a report summarizing these predictions.
If you're interested in forecasting/expert judgment, don't miss our joint report w/@anthlittle.bsky.social (now correctly tagged!)
Past forecasts of negative democratic events are too pessimistic except for events rated as most likely, but aggregate forecasts are quite accurate when adjusted
Past forecasts of negative democratic events are too pessimistic except for events rated as most likely, but aggregate forecasts are quite accurate when adjusted
December 17, 2024 at 6:08 PM
How concerned should we be about backsliding during the second Trump term? Have past concerns come to fruition? Bright Light Watch asked experts to assign probabilities to concrete "bad" events in several past waves and the most recent one. We collaborated on a report summarizing these predictions.
Reposted by John Carey
Important, but also another way in which our politics are distorted by the Trump GOP's "heads I win, tails you lose" approach.
November 6, 2024 at 10:14 PM
Important, but also another way in which our politics are distorted by the Trump GOP's "heads I win, tails you lose" approach.
Reposted by John Carey
(joint with @johncarey.bsky.social, Brian Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and amazing Dartmouth students Elizabeth Chun, Alice Cook, Leyla Jacoby, and Lilian Sweeney)
September 5, 2024 at 3:14 PM
(joint with @johncarey.bsky.social, Brian Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and amazing Dartmouth students Elizabeth Chun, Alice Cook, Leyla Jacoby, and Lilian Sweeney)
Latest from @brightlinewatch just out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social @suestokes.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin - check out the Nyhan thread or read the whole report here - brightlinewatch.org/from-convict...
July 11, 2024 at 5:28 PM
Latest from @brightlinewatch just out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social @suestokes.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin - check out the Nyhan thread or read the whole report here - brightlinewatch.org/from-convict...
Reposted by John Carey
My public opinion undergrads will be working through this report in a few weeks.
March 18, 2024 at 9:40 PM
My public opinion undergrads will be working through this report in a few weeks.
Reposted by John Carey
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa...
Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)
Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)
March 12, 2024 at 1:58 PM
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa...
Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)
Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)