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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond
@johnrraymond.bsky.social
11K followers 1.1K following 2.3K posts
Slava Ukraini🇺🇦 #BelieveWomen "Trump is Putin's puppet." Author Web: https://tinyurl.com/JRRaymond How Trump Operates: https://tinyurl.com/thememo1 My Youtube Videos: https://tinyurl.com/JRRYTDeleted
tinyurl.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1h
Just like the canadian military, the U.S. military personnel are not bad people, and I refuse to accept that framing.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1h
The Relief So yes, I feel relief. It is the relief of a citizen who still believes in the idea of a republic that can distinguish right from wrong, even when the right thing happens for the wrong reason. It is a small victory, but a real one — and in these times, real victories are rare enough to be honored.
johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1h
Dear #BlueWizards, We have good news. It looks like the military will be getting paid this week, even despite the shutdown.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/yes-i-feel-r...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Yes, I Feel Relief Knowing That, at Least for Now, U.S. Military Personnel Will Be Receiving Pay
There comes a point, even in the most degraded political climate, when the moral compass must override the partisan reflex. Today, that…
johnrraymondesq.medium.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 3h
For reference, @gametheory101.bsky.social's video:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1dQ...

(This video is filled with nonsense, but at least his conclusions are semi sound...)
Tomahawked? Inside a U.S./Ukraine Long-Range Strike Plan
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 3h
The End of the Fantasy So yes — when even William Spaniel can detect that the emperor has no missiles, it’s time to stop indulging the fantasy. The Tomahawk narrative is not a sign of new resolve; it’s an admission of political exhaustion. The truth is simple. Ukraine needs ammunition, not anecdotes.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 3h
Dear #BlueWizards, When even @gametheory101.bsky.social can see that this tomahawk talk is hot air, you know it is all bullshit.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/you-know-tom...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
You Know Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine Is Hot Air When Even William Spaniel Can See It
It tells you everything you need to know about the unreality of Washington’s “Tomahawk-for-Ukraine” chatter that even William Spaniel —…
johnrraymondesq.medium.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 5h
Not going to link the Zeihan video...
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 5h
Ukraine and its backers cannot afford to vest trust in rhetorical shifts that may evaporate under Kremlin pressure. One must treat Trump 2.0 as not a normal state actor, but as a narrative control mechanism—a regime whose external output is, until materialized, Kremlin-backed propaganda. Recognizing that, the only rational posture is one of radical empiricism: disbelieve until you see, and even then trust but verify the downstream motive. In short, believe in tomahawks only once they go kaboom in Russia and Ukraine.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 5h
Dear #BlueWizards, Peter Zeihan's latest take on tomahawks for Ukraine is impossible to watch. Has he been living under a rock?

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/tomahaw...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Tomahawks? When Dealing with a Known Traitor and Liar Like Trump, Trust Actions, Not Words
In an environment of systematic deception, words lose their meaning. Promises, declarations, supposed chatter, verbal commitments—they become tools of manipulation, not indicators of intent. The only ...
www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 22h
Act Like Patriots So, Senators Murkowski, Collins, Young, and every House Republican who still calls themselves a conservative in good faith: quit wringing your hands. File the motions. Force the votes. Stand on the floor and make the case that your party must not become a weapon against its own country. If you cannot defend the federal workforce, you cannot defend the nation. If you cannot stop your president from burning down the government, then the oath you swore—to support and defend the Constitution of the United States—means nothing. History is watching. So are the people you were elected to serve.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 22h
Dear #BlueWizards, Don't fall for GOP bullshit. If they cared about the Republic they would act, not verbally wring their hands

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/dear-go...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Dear GOP Congresspeople, Quit Wringing Your Hands and Do Something
The time for polite dissent and finger-wagging press releases is over. The United States is now governed by an executive actively dismantling its own institutions for political advantage. President Tr...
www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 23h
The completely idiotic post in question:

bsky.app/profile/chri...

All one has to do is ask: how was Trump's supposed jealousy ever turned against him? The answer is, it wasn't.
chrislhayes.bsky.social
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · Jun 20
It's actually *incredibly useful* that Trump is palpably jealous of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize and desperately wants one himself.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 23h
The End of a Shit Theory Chris Hayes’s “useful” theory dies here, and with it the last pretense that MSNBC’s punditry is a form of intelligence. The record shows what happens when fake journalists confuse cleverness for comprehension: they become apologists for the very forces they claim to oppose. Trump’s Nobel talk was never useful; it was a mirror. And in that mirror we see the media class reflected—vain, performative, and fatally unserious.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 23h
Dear #BlueWizards, @chrislhayes.bsky.social's idiotic post from June is still up and still stupid. This is what we get from MSM

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/the-end...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
The End of the Useful Idiot: Chris Hayes and the Collapse of the “Nobel” Illusion
Chris Hayes declared that it was “incredibly useful” that President Trump wanted a Nobel Peace Prize. He mistook pathological vanity for leverage. A hundred and twelve days later, the result is clear:...
www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
For reference, @vladvexler.bsky.social's latest video calling out the @thestudyofwar.bsky.social for their bullshit analysis:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kppb...
ISW: Russia is entering "phase 0" of war with NATO
YouTube video by Vlad Vexler Chat
www.youtube.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
The Only Real Conclusion Vexler is right: bullshitting helps no one. And yet, the truthful and useful statement is still stark: Russia is structuring the battlespace so that escalation remains feasible at a time of its choosing. NATO’s task is to collapse the option value—operationally (air and counter-drone readiness), institutionally (clear Article 4/5 signaling), and epistemically (analysis that distinguishes what is known from what is inferred). That is how the West wins Phase 0. Not with bullshit.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
Dear #BlueWizards, @vladvexler.bsky.social's latest video is the kind of analysis the West needs - calling bullshit bullshit.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/phase-0...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Phase 0 As Option Value: What ISW Should Have Said—and Why Vexler Is Right
The only analytically coherent way to read “Phase 0” is as optionality: Russia is deliberately withholding actions that would foreclose escalation against NATO. That is not a doctrinal proof of war-pr...
www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
For reference, @gametheory101.bsky.social's long-winded video that offers an exciting topline without ever properly acknowledging that the scenario sits deep inside a low probability well:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh_m...
Gambling from Behind: Why the Kremlin Is Trying to Bait NATO
YouTube video by William Spaniel
www.youtube.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
The most likely way these probes help is by splitting NATO attention and tiring out Europe — not by springing some perfect trap. Each country that keeps a few air defenses at home instead of sending them to Ukraine helps Russia a little. Each voter who gets tired of war spending helps Russia a little more. Small, real things like these change the battlefield; a Rube Goldberg story does not. Elaborate plots can sound smart, but smart is not the same as useful. Useful analysis gives weight to each path, tells us which is biggest, and says how to stop it. The big risk here is the slow one: allies protecting themselves first until Ukraine is left standing alone. That is what needs attention. The cinematic chain of miracles that lets Putin win by clever trickery belongs in fiction, not in strategy.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
Dear #BlueWizards, I am not saying @gametheory101.bsky.social is wrong, just that his latest video isn't want analysis looks like.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/dear-william...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Dear William Spaniel, Elaborate Doesn’t Mean Elegant or Useful
Sometimes people think that if an explanation is long and complicated, it must be smart. But that is not true. An idea can be elaborate and…
johnrraymondesq.medium.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
For reference, @paulwarburg.bsky.social's latest video after a week hiatus:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=N07a...
Russia's 'Dutch Disease' Just Became Fatal
YouTube video by Paul Warburg
www.youtube.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
V. A Solid Return Paul Warburg’s week away has produced more than a return — it has yielded a masterclass in structural analysis. This isn’t another pulse-check on GDP or ruble volatility; it is the post-mortem outline of a system that has mistaken extraction for vitality. If he is correct — and his record suggests he is — the Russian Federation’s economic collapse may not be sudden, but it will be pathological: arteries constricting, tissue dying, organs failing one by one until only the political skeleton remains, animated by fear and inertia. Warburg’s “Double Dutch Disease” lecture, therefore, should be read as both economic analysis and regime obituary.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
Dear #BlueWizards, @paulwarburg.bsky.social has returned with a banger diagnosing the Russian economy and its decent into collapse.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/paul-warburg...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
Paul Warburg Returns with a Forensic Autopsy of Russia’s Imploding Economy
After a week’s absence — likely linked to the family health issues Paul previously alluded to — he has reemerged with one of his strongest…
johnrraymondesq.medium.com
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
But if the window opens fully, the opportunities are real. Congress doesn’t get many moments where its supermajority powers are operationally credible again. If Swalwell is right, history might demand that the House and Senate act not merely as legislative bodies but as instruments of constitutional revival.
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johnrraymond.bsky.social
John R Raymond @johnrraymond.bsky.social · 1d
Dear #BlueWizards, If @ericswalwell.bsky.social is correct the implications could be staggering.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/if-swal...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social
If Swalwell Is Right, the Implications Could Be Staggering
If Representative Eric Swalwell’s warnings about an impending “Epstein bomb” are grounded in fact—not political theater—then we may be witnessing one of the deepest instabilities to ever threaten the ...
www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io
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