John Sugden
@johnsug.bsky.social
Armchair analytics for ultramarathons I'll likely never run
final tracker (more or less -- still don't know who was the tenth runner to complete the first loop) -- congrats on a fun time in Frozen Head, John Kelly! #bm100
March 20, 2025 at 3:31 PM
final tracker (more or less -- still don't know who was the tenth runner to complete the first loop) -- congrats on a fun time in Frozen Head, John Kelly! #bm100
Reposted by John Sugden
Need to zoom in on the #bm100 fun run zone i.e. till 4am. The main issue will be the wind but temps and clouds should hold off for a bit.
March 20, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Need to zoom in on the #bm100 fun run zone i.e. till 4am. The main issue will be the wind but temps and clouds should hold off for a bit.
weather forecasts from www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Frozen...
"Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100
"Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100
March 20, 2025 at 12:39 AM
weather forecasts from www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Frozen...
"Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100
"Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100
random #bm100 maths; for Tomo to go onto loop 3, he'd need a loop 3 time of 11:27:10; his prior loop 3 finishes were 15:13:08, 13:08:46, and 12:34:22, so this would be a bit of a stretch. However, he has a leisurely 15:27:10 to complete a fun run -- totally do-able.
1/2
1/2
March 19, 2025 at 9:20 PM
random #bm100 maths; for Tomo to go onto loop 3, he'd need a loop 3 time of 11:27:10; his prior loop 3 finishes were 15:13:08, 13:08:46, and 12:34:22, so this would be a bit of a stretch. However, he has a leisurely 15:27:10 to complete a fun run -- totally do-able.
1/2
1/2
It's hard to update the tracker when we don't know which six runners are still out there, but the best update I can do it this: The #bm100 has been on-going for 23+ hours now. Since 1998, only 26% of runners who took over 23 hours to finish loop 2 even made it to a fun run :/
March 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's hard to update the tracker when we don't know which six runners are still out there, but the best update I can do it this: The #bm100 has been on-going for 23+ hours now. Since 1998, only 26% of runners who took over 23 hours to finish loop 2 even made it to a fun run :/
Note, per @taka-does-stuff.bsky.social John Kelly came in right after Tomo, and not in the first wave like I assumed. That being the case, his historical performance looks like this; the Barkley is out for blood this year #bm100
March 19, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Note, per @taka-does-stuff.bsky.social John Kelly came in right after Tomo, and not in the first wave like I assumed. That being the case, his historical performance looks like this; the Barkley is out for blood this year #bm100
simplifying a bit (assuming no one will get past the fun run, but I can always expand as needed), but I'm not sure it's yet really "readable" #bm100
March 19, 2025 at 3:27 AM
simplifying a bit (assuming no one will get past the fun run, but I can always expand as needed), but I'm not sure it's yet really "readable" #bm100
I know these initial charts are pointless, but if nothing else, helps me work on the formatting (I'm still new to creating charts for Bluesky) #bm100
March 19, 2025 at 2:25 AM
I know these initial charts are pointless, but if nothing else, helps me work on the formatting (I'm still new to creating charts for Bluesky) #bm100
Reposted by John Sugden
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March 18, 2025 at 8:00 PM
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calculated some quick stats on #bm100 runner finishing likelihoods based on their completion of each loop, while waiting for loop 1 to finish johnsug.substack.com/p/barkley-pr...
March 18, 2025 at 6:42 PM
calculated some quick stats on #bm100 runner finishing likelihoods based on their completion of each loop, while waiting for loop 1 to finish johnsug.substack.com/p/barkley-pr...
update; no, in fact, I cannot do math #bm100
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:57 am / 00:57
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 2:17 pm / 14:17
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:37 pm / 23:37
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:37 am / 03:37
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 am / 11:37
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 pm / 23:37
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:57 am / 00:57
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 2:17 pm / 14:17
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:37 pm / 23:37
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:37 am / 03:37
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 am / 11:37
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 pm / 23:37
March 18, 2025 at 2:59 PM
update; no, in fact, I cannot do math #bm100
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:57 am / 00:57
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 2:17 pm / 14:17
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:37 pm / 23:37
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:37 am / 03:37
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 am / 11:37
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 pm / 23:37
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:57 am / 00:57
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 2:17 pm / 14:17
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:37 pm / 23:37
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:37 am / 03:37
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 am / 11:37
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 pm / 23:37
#bm100 starts at 11:17 am ET, so (if I did my math right)
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:37 am / 00:37
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 1:57 pm / 13:57
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:17 pm / 23:17
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:17 am / 03:17
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 am / 11:17
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 pm / 23:17
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:37 am / 00:37
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 1:57 pm / 13:57
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:17 pm / 23:17
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:17 am / 03:17
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 am / 11:17
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 pm / 23:17
March 18, 2025 at 2:51 PM
#bm100 starts at 11:17 am ET, so (if I did my math right)
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:37 am / 00:37
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 1:57 pm / 13:57
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:17 pm / 23:17
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:17 am / 03:17
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 am / 11:17
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 pm / 23:17
loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:37 am / 00:37
loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 1:57 pm / 13:57
loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:17 pm / 23:17
fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:17 am / 03:17
loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 am / 11:17
loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 pm / 23:17
Found this guide for anyone else creating content for Bluesky
March 18, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Found this guide for anyone else creating content for Bluesky
