Jonathan Rosser
@jonathanrosser.bsky.social
Climate Uncertainties, Tipping Points, Economic Impacts, Polar Oceans Researcher. Research Officer at the London School of Economics.
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-rosser-88222073/
Website: https://www.jonathanrosser.com/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-rosser-88222073/
Website: https://www.jonathanrosser.com/
Pinned
Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections
Centennial oscillations occur in the Southern Ocean in the majority of an ensemble of pre-industrial control runs of 16 CMIP6 models. These oscillations involve features such as the Antarctic Circumpo...
essopenarchive.org
I am excited to announce our new preprint "Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections". This is the first paper on content from my PhD thesis and I am so happy that it is now submitted. essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
*** Presentation on Uncertainties in Climate Models and the Southern Ocean ***
Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections
Centennial oscillations occur in the Southern Ocean in the majority of an ensemble of pre-industrial control runs of 16 CMIP6 models. These oscillations involve features such as the Antarctic Circumpo...
essopenarchive.org
September 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
*** Presentation on Uncertainties in Climate Models and the Southern Ocean ***
Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
Really enjoyed presenting at the Challenger Society Ocean Modelling Special Interest Group this week. For more info see our recent preprint: essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
August 19, 2025 at 1:14 PM
🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.
📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...
Great article in The Economist on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the impact of potential changes in it (a key focus of my current work). www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
The shutdown of ocean currents could freeze Europe
When climate change poses a strategic threat, it needs a strategic response
www.economist.com
August 18, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Great article in The Economist on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the impact of potential changes in it (a key focus of my current work). www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
It is good to see @economist.com highlighting the importance of climate tipping points, and the work being done to understand and prepare for them. It discusses the work being done by UK groups (including the @aria-research.bsky.social project which I am part of) www.economist.com/interactive/...
Earth’s climate is approaching irreversible tipping points
Scientists are racing to work out just how close they might be
www.economist.com
August 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
It is good to see @economist.com highlighting the importance of climate tipping points, and the work being done to understand and prepare for them. It discusses the work being done by UK groups (including the @aria-research.bsky.social project which I am part of) www.economist.com/interactive/...
PhD Graduation!!
Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).
Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).
July 28, 2025 at 5:25 PM
PhD Graduation!!
Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).
Very happy to finally graduate from my PhD, focusing on Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”. I am incredibly grateful to all those who have supported me throughout, friends, family and colleagues (too many to name here,please check out my acknowledgements).
I am excited to announce our new preprint "Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections". This is the first paper on content from my PhD thesis and I am so happy that it is now submitted. essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections
Centennial oscillations occur in the Southern Ocean in the majority of an ensemble of pre-industrial control runs of 16 CMIP6 models. These oscillations involve features such as the Antarctic Circumpo...
essopenarchive.org
July 22, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I am excited to announce our new preprint "Shutdown of Southern Ocean Convective Centennial Variability under Global Warming and Implications for Climate Projections". This is the first paper on content from my PhD thesis and I am so happy that it is now submitted. essopenarchive.org/users/946271...
We're hiring! Research Officer on the RobustAssess project, funded by @aria-research.bsky.social . Join the @granthamlse.bsky.social and the London School of Economics as a Research Officer and work on climate tipping points and the future of climate model ensembles.
July 11, 2025 at 10:33 AM
We're hiring! Research Officer on the RobustAssess project, funded by @aria-research.bsky.social . Join the @granthamlse.bsky.social and the London School of Economics as a Research Officer and work on climate tipping points and the future of climate model ensembles.
Fantastic work from the UK OBR and CCC, presented by Carbon Brief, showing how the estimated costs of climate change for the UK have increased from around 5% to 8% of GDP by 2070 under 3C of warming, while the cost of avoiding is much lower and has roughly halved since the last estimate!
NEW: Getting to net-zero will be much cheaper than thought for the UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly, says OBR
Quick piece / thread with 4 key charts showing, yet again, why climate action is far less costly than inaction
🧵
www.carbonbrief.org/...
1/6
Quick piece / thread with 4 key charts showing, yet again, why climate action is far less costly than inaction
🧵
www.carbonbrief.org/...
1/6
July 9, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Fantastic work from the UK OBR and CCC, presented by Carbon Brief, showing how the estimated costs of climate change for the UK have increased from around 5% to 8% of GDP by 2070 under 3C of warming, while the cost of avoiding is much lower and has roughly halved since the last estimate!
Had some fantastic conversations following my talk on "Economic impacts of AMOC tipping and uncertainty" at the Global Tipping Points Conference at University of Exeter.
July 2, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Had some fantastic conversations following my talk on "Economic impacts of AMOC tipping and uncertainty" at the Global Tipping Points Conference at University of Exeter.
Thank you so much to @bas.ac.uk and @cambridgemba.bsky.social for inviting me to speak to their Executive MBA group about the economic impacts of climate change and the use of climate information in decision-making.
June 10, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Thank you so much to @bas.ac.uk and @cambridgemba.bsky.social for inviting me to speak to their Executive MBA group about the economic impacts of climate change and the use of climate information in decision-making.
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
Lowest global sea ice area for the date on record 🧪
June 3, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Lowest global sea ice area for the date on record 🧪
Really looking forward to presenting my work on the Economic consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7 at #EGU25, do drop by if you would like to learn more about climate model uncertainty and its relevance for economic modelling.
May 1, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Really looking forward to presenting my work on the Economic consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7 at #EGU25, do drop by if you would like to learn more about climate model uncertainty and its relevance for economic modelling.
EGU Presentation: "Economic Consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7"
I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested!
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
@egu.eu
I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested!
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
@egu.eu
Abstract EGU25-12178
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
April 24, 2025 at 6:19 PM
EGU Presentation: "Economic Consequences of CMIP Diversity and Targets for CMIP7"
I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested!
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
@egu.eu
I am presenting next week at #EGU25 on the economic consequences of climate and model uncertainty, do come and watch or get in touch if you are interested!
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
@egu.eu
Very happy to announce I have submitted the final printed and bound version of my PhD thesis “Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”! It is also now accessible online: www.repository.cam.ac.uk/items/f8e627.... More details in the thread:
April 16, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Very happy to announce I have submitted the final printed and bound version of my PhD thesis “Southern Ocean Centennial Oscillations in the CMIP6 Ensemble”! It is also now accessible online: www.repository.cam.ac.uk/items/f8e627.... More details in the thread:
Had a fantastic time at the TipESM and ClimTip Joint Annual Meeting in Paris. I really enjoyed the intense discussion on tipping point impacts and behaviour, as well as thought-provoking breakout groups and storyline sessions encouraging us to think outside the box and reconsider our assumptions.
👋 Paris welcomes #ClimTip and #TipESM with a perfect April weather for the joint annual conference 2025 hosted at Institut Henri Poincaré!
We look forward to lively exchanges between researchers working on #ClimateTippingPoints in the Earth system!
@climtip.bsky.social @tipesm.bsky.social
We look forward to lively exchanges between researchers working on #ClimateTippingPoints in the Earth system!
@climtip.bsky.social @tipesm.bsky.social
April 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Had a fantastic time at the TipESM and ClimTip Joint Annual Meeting in Paris. I really enjoyed the intense discussion on tipping point impacts and behaviour, as well as thought-provoking breakout groups and storyline sessions encouraging us to think outside the box and reconsider our assumptions.
Hybrid Talk, Zoom Link Available: "Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points"
I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...
I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...
Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points — climaTRACES Lab
This session is led by Jonathan Rosser (Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey). Our weekly climaTRACES workshops is at...
climatraces.org
March 10, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Hybrid Talk, Zoom Link Available: "Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points"
I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...
I am very excited to be speaking at the ClimaTRACES workshop today 12:45 (Monday 10th march). Feel free to join us in person or on the zoom link available here: climatraces.org/events/works...
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
"A weaker current may also allow more warm water to penetrate southwards, exacerbating the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and contributing to global sea-level rise. Faster ice melting could then lead to further weakening of the current, commencing a vicious spiral of current slowdown."
Melting Antarctic ice will slow the world’s strongest ocean current – and the global consequences are profound
Part of the system that pumps water, heat and nutrients around the globe is at risk. Climate change could slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current down 20% by 2050.
theconversation.com
March 3, 2025 at 3:08 PM
"A weaker current may also allow more warm water to penetrate southwards, exacerbating the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and contributing to global sea-level rise. Faster ice melting could then lead to further weakening of the current, commencing a vicious spiral of current slowdown."
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
🧪🌊🧵 Despite having his job at NOAA terminated @zacklabe.com has still brought his visualisations that show the alarming recent trend in Antarctic sea-ice extent up to date.
zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...
1/2
zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...
1/2
Antarctic: Sea-Ice Concentration/Extent/Thickness
My visualizations: Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentration Arctic Sea Ice Volume and Thickness Arctic Temperatures Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Concentrat…
zacklabe.com
March 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🧪🌊🧵 Despite having his job at NOAA terminated @zacklabe.com has still brought his visualisations that show the alarming recent trend in Antarctic sea-ice extent up to date.
zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...
1/2
zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...
1/2
If you would like to watch my talk on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" it is now available on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yvk...
February 27, 2025 at 3:48 PM
If you would like to watch my talk on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" it is now available on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yvk...
Really enjoyed speaking on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" as well as some results from my recent paper on the uncertainties surrounding interacting tipping points (www.nature.com/articles/s43...).
Thank you for the invite!
Thank you for the invite!
Join the GSI and Tipping Points Seminar Series for a guest lecture tomorrow from Dr Jonathan Rosser, LSE, on his research focused on physical uncertainties and economic impacts of climate tipping points.
Please email [email protected] to confirm your place.
Please email [email protected] to confirm your place.
February 20, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Really enjoyed speaking on "The Economic Impacts of Climate Tipping Points" as well as some results from my recent paper on the uncertainties surrounding interacting tipping points (www.nature.com/articles/s43...).
Thank you for the invite!
Thank you for the invite!
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵
February 11, 2025 at 8:26 AM
January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵
Reposted by Jonathan Rosser
Latest data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social shows:
January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record
🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level
🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024
#ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍
January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record
🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level
🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024
#ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍
February 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Latest data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social shows:
January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record
🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level
🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024
#ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍
January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record
🌡️ 1.75ºC above pre-industrial level
🌊 Second highest global SST, 0.19°C below January 2024
#ClimateAction 🧪⚒️🌍
I am really excited to be part of the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme @aria-research.bsky.social working with David Stainforth, the London School of Economics and @granthamlse.bsky.social.
February 16, 2025 at 9:03 PM
I am really excited to be part of the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme @aria-research.bsky.social working with David Stainforth, the London School of Economics and @granthamlse.bsky.social.
Climate tipping points could have large consequences for human society, but we still have huge uncertainty around them. @climtip.bsky.social and I have put together a thread diving into more detail around my recent research on this uncertainty and how we should approach it:
❓Did you know that many climate models—the ones we rely on for future planning—have a serious blind spot and may be overconfident.
A new study in @commsearth.bsky.social reveals why this is a problem. And it’s all about polar ice sheets and climate tipping points. 1/🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
A new study in @commsearth.bsky.social reveals why this is a problem. And it’s all about polar ice sheets and climate tipping points. 1/🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
February 6, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Climate tipping points could have large consequences for human society, but we still have huge uncertainty around them. @climtip.bsky.social and I have put together a thread diving into more detail around my recent research on this uncertainty and how we should approach it:
"How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" at Evidence Week.
This week David Stainforth and I are at
#EvidenceWeek
in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.
This week David Stainforth and I are at
#EvidenceWeek
in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.
January 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
"How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" at Evidence Week.
This week David Stainforth and I are at
#EvidenceWeek
in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.
This week David Stainforth and I are at
#EvidenceWeek
in Parliament with Sense about Science to present research evidence on "How to cope with climate uncertainties in strategic decisions" to parliamentarians.