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Jim Barrineau

@jwb12.bsky.social

590 followers 240 following 1K posts

Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here: www.barrineau.substack.com Ex-USN, ex-CIA

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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 3h

Literally standing on the side of the angels.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 11h

Tariffs continue to wreak havoc. The idea that we should be surprised tariffs have not done a lot of damage will soon be discarded. The macro econ figures are massively distorted by AI-related spending: under the hood--autos, agriculture, and much more the rot is only starting.

‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil

Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 21h

And serves as an encouragement to take irresponsible risks

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

I would like to invite you to pay well over 100X earnings for the future king of self-driving...if you can overlook the periodic running of red lights that might kill you or someone else...

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

The US is two economies--the top 20% are responsible for 51% of consumer spending. If you are in that cohort, everything is fine. If you are outside, the noose of slowly rising prices, expensive cars, houses, health and home insurance, electricity prices is tightening

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 3d

If we take out every small boat in the Caribbean we are going to save like 900 million American lives!!!(MAGA math)

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 3d

It falls upon the WSJ to finally show some reality-based data that demonstrates Trump and Prime Minister Miller are lying daily about Portland protests.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

What’s Really Going On in Portland, According to Police Reports

Protests outside an ICE facility were dwindling in size and at times ”low energy” in the days and weeks before President Trump called in troops, according to official law-enforcement logs.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

International developed stocks crushed the US to start the year to the S&P April low, but since then the US and its AI hype have steadily out-performed rest of developed world.

After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

This is where follow up questioning is a core function. The number of things they don’t know, the social posts they haven’t read…are astounding but it’s a reliable safety valve for them every time

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

We didn't think financial conditions could get any looser but we were wrong. We now have loose financial conditions, a massive and growing fiscal deficit, rate cuts going into rising inflation, and hundreds of billions being thrown at data centers. Why wouldn't there be a bubble forming??

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 5d

This should be a daily talking point, along with “Stephen Miller is really in charge”

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 5d

The deficit is exploding despite tariff revenue and performative firings of government workers. We are on a one-way train that is accelerating into the tunnel.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 5d

We will be lamenting the Trump shunning of green power for decades.

Global solar and wind power surges despite US green cuts under Trump

Renewable energy held back in world’s biggest economy while growing in India, the Middle East and Africa

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 5d

Can there be any doubt that this is a bubble just waiting for the piece of bad news to come that acts as a catalyst for a steep decline that feeds off itself?
on.ft.com/4hiKI5X

OpenAI’s computing deals top $1tn

Partners including Nvidia, AMD and Oracle have signed up to Sam Altman’s huge bet on the future of artificial intelligence

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

Have they promised to provide you with $500M in financing? That seems to be their smallest ticket

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

At this point is t OpenAI just throwing numbers around and burning cash hand over fist? Wonder if any of this has materialized three years from now

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

The US is losing its self-sufficiency in food, rapidly.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 7d

There should be two primary simple talking points for Dems that everyone can understand:
—Trump’s dementia
—Trump’s corruption
Should be repeated everywhere, all the time. Play the clips of him unhinged.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 9d

See? It’s easy. Ask follow up questions as soon as the lies and bullshit start. Come on, media.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 9d

The probability of two rate cuts by December meeting have gone from low 20s to low 40s percent--in a week.
Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 10d

The tariffs are making us so rich we can afford to subsidize all the parts of the economy the tariffs destroy--that's just 3d chess economic policies right there....
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Exclusive | Trump Explores Bailout of at Least $10 Billion for U.S. Farmers

Farmers are harvesting one of the largest crops in history, while China holds off on buying U.S. soybeans.