Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
Commendable job by NYT here, given the state of mainstream media. Let's call this a good start, and when we start seeing dementia articles we know we are are directly facing reality.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
Shorter Days, Signs of Fatigue: Trump Faces Realities of Aging in Office
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Commendable job by NYT here, given the state of mainstream media. Let's call this a good start, and when we start seeing dementia articles we know we are are directly facing reality.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/u...
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
November 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
November 23, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
November 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
November 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
There is always a case to be made to get rid of a terrible leader of a foreign country. The points here apply to maybe a dozen countries. And history is littered with the cases of unitended consequences. Getting rid of Maduro could easily--easily--create disaster
Opinion | The Case for Overthrowing Maduro (Gift Article)
Thinking through the case for intervention in Venezuela.
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
There is always a case to be made to get rid of a terrible leader of a foreign country. The points here apply to maybe a dozen countries. And history is littered with the cases of unitended consequences. Getting rid of Maduro could easily--easily--create disaster
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
The California Campaign to Introduce a First-of-Its-Kind Billionaire’s Tax
The union-backed ballot measure is aimed at raising healthcare funding, but it faces opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:03 AM
There are good and bad ways to tax the uber-rich--I think taxing unrealized gains is problematic, for example, but the big picture is: it's coming. The wealth disparity we have now is simply unsustainable, this is just an early iteration.
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
www.wsj.com/business/cal...
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
Elliott seeks to reassure investors as long-term returns fall behind S&P 500
Performance has lagged at Paul Singer’s hedge fund amid concerns that large size is barrier to strong returns
on.ft.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Paying hedge fund fees for a hedge fund of this size, with an incredibly low probability of beating the S&P net of fees, is simply lighting your money on fire.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
If the Fed starts taking the massive wealth disparity into account as the lower 80% of the country struggles, and cuts rates because of it--who benefits the most? The upper 20% of course, who can take advantage of the financialization of everything.
Must be addressed politically
Must be addressed politically
Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns
John Williams suggests poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates next month
on.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:24 PM
If the Fed starts taking the massive wealth disparity into account as the lower 80% of the country struggles, and cuts rates because of it--who benefits the most? The upper 20% of course, who can take advantage of the financialization of everything.
Must be addressed politically
Must be addressed politically
Great data on something we all intuitively know by now: Media and tech wants to stoke our anger and division for eyeballs, because it works.
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the west
New research shows how incentives in the modern media ecosystem help explain rising division and negativity
on.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Great data on something we all intuitively know by now: Media and tech wants to stoke our anger and division for eyeballs, because it works.
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
on.ft.com/4oU8V4S
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
November 5, 2025 at 12:30 PM
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
Down about 5% pre-market. Another good earnings, bad market reaction story--very telling for what the market is thinking about valuations
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
AMD Reports Sharply Higher Profits, Sales
The chip maker reported steep gains in both profit and sales for the third quarter as it moved deeper into AI data centers and increased sales of personal computer processors.
www.wsj.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Down about 5% pre-market. Another good earnings, bad market reaction story--very telling for what the market is thinking about valuations
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
www.wsj.com/business/ear...
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
November 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
November 3, 2025 at 1:26 PM
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.