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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 50m

Er I've been studying the accuracy record of polls of all kinds for well over a decade, it's what I do. I know how accurate they are or are not.

Unlike mwmedia - see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/05/almo...

Almost Everything In West Media's Polling Video Is Wrong

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1h

Note that this is actually Redbridge-Accent, not standalone Redbridge. The same combo as the very successful marginal seat tracking poll this year.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2h

14 is high compared to other pollsters, but One Nation has been rising lately in every poll series.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4h

Noting that I am not yet applying a house effect to Redbridge, my 2PP aggregate following Redbridge is 55.9 to ALP (-0.6)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4h

This 14% is to my knowledge the highest One Nation has been in any reputable national poll since June-July 1998. (During that time they had two 14.5s and a 14 in Morgan and a 14 in Nielsen.)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4h

All three Redbridges so far this term have been low for Labor cf my aggregate of other polls, with their very high ON readings contributing. However the difference is only weakly statistically significant in isolation so I'll wait for more evidence here.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4h

#Redbridge ALP 34 L-NP 29 Grn 11 ON 14 IND/other 12

Their 2PP 54.0 to ALP (+0.5)
My estimate for these primaries 53.9 (-0.8) which is the lowest for this term from anyone

Sep 25-Oct 7

www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Coalition’s catch-22: Caught between teals and One Nation surge

Polls show One Nation’s vote is rising in regional and rural areas. But is pandering towards the far right a fool’s errand for the Coalition?

www.afr.com

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Great Australian Party leader and fleetingly former Senator Rod Culleton has been found guilty of falsely declaring he wasn't bankrupt to run at the 2022 election. He faces the same charge for the 2025 election. Will be interesting to see the penalty.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

This party was trying to get registered for this year's election but didn't get there in time.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Oh dear. The chap behind Power 2 People is not just a March for Australia organiser, he's a fire ant baiting truther.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09...

MP slammed for speaking at 'scaremongering' rally that claimed fire ant bait shrinks babies' heads

A Queensland MP is facing criticism for speaking at a gathering of conspiracy theorists who erroneously claim vaccines cause stupidity and fire ant bait is harmful to fetal brain development.

www.abc.net.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

It is checked. A random sample of claimed members (a few to several dozen) are contacted to see if they will say they are actually members of the party. If too many say they're not then the party is not registered. That said the statistical test is fairly lenient.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

The application being published means it somehow managed to pass membership vetting to establish that it at least may really have 1500 members. Usually parties with websites as bad as P2P don't get near.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Party registration watch: because there is less than zero actual voter demand for yet another paranoid minor right party with a manifesto assembled from Ralph Babet's lost belly fluff, here is "Power 2 People" applying for registration, avoid.

aec.gov.au/Parties_and_...

aec.gov.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Wright is the current seat of interest. A direct swing of 5.2% from the LNP to One Nation would see One Nation win it. Some national polls have been close to this.

But Qld will be redistributed, with or without expansion.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3d

Candidate S Ley has taken the lead in my sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

I did not notice former Derwent Valley Mayor Ben Shaw had run for Sorell Council in 2022. Anyway he has now been elected to Sorell Council on a vacancy recount. #lgtas #politas

www.tec.tas.gov.au/local-govern...

www.tec.tas.gov.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

There isn't a question on it, I'd expect engagement is not high right now.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

(For Richmond, I assumed ALP->Grn was the same as Ryan and that all other->Grn in Richmond was the same as all other->ALP in Richmond. I got Greens beating Nat but it was inside 51-49).

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 4d

Richmond is actually an interesting one because the ALP->Grn preference flow would presumably be much weaker than Grn->ALP. Despite the easy ALP 2PP win, by the time you throw in the 5.2% primary vote swing and that, the Nat would be not far off winning it.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

Newspoll these days is less bouncy than it used to be so that may help him.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

Close to half of Coalition voters follow how to vote cards and the Coalition currently recommends prefs to Labor over Greens on its cards. Among the rest not surprising that plenty of right-wing L-NP supporters would prefer the centrish ALP to lefter Greens.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

sorry, I typed that the wrong way round. will delete and repost.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

through the roof. during that streak it was between net +26 and +57

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

I think the rest are right.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 5d

Greens also don't take Brisbane. They were 6.21 behind Labor at the 3CP point so taking 5.22 off Labor's primary still leaves Labor about a point ahead.