Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Unsurprising upheavals in Shooters Fishers and Farmers Tas after Carlo di Falco supports stadium #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Hobart stadium backflip sparks row in Shooters, Fishers, Farmers party
Key figures in Tasmania's Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party have quit following new MP Carlo Di Falco's backflip on the Macquarie Point Stadium project.
www.abc.net.au
November 24, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Unsurprising upheavals in Shooters Fishers and Farmers Tas after Carlo di Falco supports stadium #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/emrs... EMRS: Liberals Slip But Labor Again Doesn't Pick Up The Scraps #politas
EMRS: Liberals Slip But Labor Again Doesn't Pick Up The Scraps
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:34 PM
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/emrs... EMRS: Liberals Slip But Labor Again Doesn't Pick Up The Scraps #politas
Constant debate about rally crowd size estimates in #politas debates is tedious. I am assuming all rally crowd size estimates to be nonsense until there is a serious movement across lobby groups to fund a neutral crowd size estimation service.
November 24, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Constant debate about rally crowd size estimates in #politas debates is tedious. I am assuming all rally crowd size estimates to be nonsense until there is a serious movement across lobby groups to fund a neutral crowd size estimation service.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/brad... Brad Battin's Booting Is A Poll History Outlier
#Newspoll #springst
#Newspoll #springst
Brad Battin's Booting Is A Poll History Outlier
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:41 AM
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/brad... Brad Battin's Booting Is A Poll History Outlier
#Newspoll #springst
#Newspoll #springst
#EMRS Tas (state)
"🔵 Lib 34 (-4)
🔴 ALP 25 (+1)
🟢 Grn 17 (+4)
⚪️ Ind 19 (=)
Net Favs
🔵 Rockliff -1 (-19)
🔴 Willie -4 (-8)
n=1,000 50% CATI 50% CAWI Nov 17-21"
An ordinary poll for the govt after a good run lately but again Labor doesn't pick up much and the winners are the Greens. #politas
"🔵 Lib 34 (-4)
🔴 ALP 25 (+1)
🟢 Grn 17 (+4)
⚪️ Ind 19 (=)
Net Favs
🔵 Rockliff -1 (-19)
🔴 Willie -4 (-8)
n=1,000 50% CATI 50% CAWI Nov 17-21"
An ordinary poll for the govt after a good run lately but again Labor doesn't pick up much and the winners are the Greens. #politas
November 24, 2025 at 12:55 AM
#Newspoll Preferred Coalition leader Ley 21 Hastie 15 Taylor 9 Wilson 6 O'Brien 3 Don't know (after double prompt) 46. Ley leads 28-20 among those still supporting Coalition.
November 23, 2025 at 10:31 PM
#Newspoll Preferred Coalition leader Ley 21 Hastie 15 Taylor 9 Wilson 6 O'Brien 3 Don't know (after double prompt) 46. Ley leads 28-20 among those still supporting Coalition.
I won't be aggregating it as it's a lobby group commissioned poll but a recent Climate Council etc YouGov has ALP 34 L-NP 26 Grn 12 ON 18 IND 5 other 5, my estimate off these primaries is 54.8 to ALP.
November 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
I won't be aggregating it as it's a lobby group commissioned poll but a recent Climate Council etc YouGov has ALP 34 L-NP 26 Grn 12 ON 18 IND 5 other 5, my estimate off these primaries is 54.8 to ALP.
Party registration news: the party currently called "FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation" has applied to change its name to the equally terrible "votefusion.org for big ideas" (abbreviation votefusion.org)
Fusion Party
🌏 Planet Rescue | 🕵️ Whistleblower Protection | 🔬 Innovation
votefusion.org
November 23, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Party registration news: the party currently called "FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation" has applied to change its name to the equally terrible "votefusion.org for big ideas" (abbreviation votefusion.org)
(re question from other place)
Career average of absolute distance from #Newspoll zero netsat per poll:
Albanese 11.3 (partial career)
Howard 13.3
Hawke 13.4 (partial career, full career would be higher)
Morrison 14
Turnbull 19.3
Abbott 21.1
Gillard 22.0
Keating 24.4
Rudd 28.0
Career average of absolute distance from #Newspoll zero netsat per poll:
Albanese 11.3 (partial career)
Howard 13.3
Hawke 13.4 (partial career, full career would be higher)
Morrison 14
Turnbull 19.3
Abbott 21.1
Gillard 22.0
Keating 24.4
Rudd 28.0
November 23, 2025 at 8:50 AM
(re question from other place)
Career average of absolute distance from #Newspoll zero netsat per poll:
Albanese 11.3 (partial career)
Howard 13.3
Hawke 13.4 (partial career, full career would be higher)
Morrison 14
Turnbull 19.3
Abbott 21.1
Gillard 22.0
Keating 24.4
Rudd 28.0
Career average of absolute distance from #Newspoll zero netsat per poll:
Albanese 11.3 (partial career)
Howard 13.3
Hawke 13.4 (partial career, full career would be higher)
Morrison 14
Turnbull 19.3
Abbott 21.1
Gillard 22.0
Keating 24.4
Rudd 28.0
#Newspoll 58-42 to ALP (yep)
ALP 36 L-NP 24 Green 13 ON 15 IND/other 12
Albanese net 0 (haha) (47-47)
Ley net -29 (26-55)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27.
ALP 36 L-NP 24 Green 13 ON 15 IND/other 12
Albanese net 0 (haha) (47-47)
Ley net -29 (26-55)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27.
November 23, 2025 at 8:21 AM
#Newspoll 58-42 to ALP (yep)
ALP 36 L-NP 24 Green 13 ON 15 IND/other 12
Albanese net 0 (haha) (47-47)
Ley net -29 (26-55)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27.
ALP 36 L-NP 24 Green 13 ON 15 IND/other 12
Albanese net 0 (haha) (47-47)
Ley net -29 (26-55)
Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27.
Some inaccurate stats re the 1990 election attributed to Robert Hogg in Canberra Times article re Richardson. Labor's primary was 39.4 not 37-38, the combined Greens/Dems primary was about 13 not 23 (typo?) and the Green/Dems preference flow to ALP was about 64 not 80.
November 22, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Some inaccurate stats re the 1990 election attributed to Robert Hogg in Canberra Times article re Richardson. Labor's primary was 39.4 not 37-38, the combined Greens/Dems primary was about 13 not 23 (typo?) and the Green/Dems preference flow to ALP was about 64 not 80.
This sort of thing is a worry - LLM that can evade online polling bot detectors (including LLM detectors).
www.404media.co/a-researcher...
www.404media.co/a-researcher...
A Researcher Made an AI That Completely Breaks the Online Surveys Scientists Rely On
We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people.”
www.404media.co
November 22, 2025 at 10:47 AM
This sort of thing is a worry - LLM that can evade online polling bot detectors (including LLM detectors).
www.404media.co/a-researcher...
www.404media.co/a-researcher...
uComms reported in the field too.
Stadium, tax increases, seems poll asked 2025 vote but not current intention. Poll includes some Qs about impact on future vote which are notoriously unreliable.
#politas
Stadium, tax increases, seems poll asked 2025 vote but not current intention. Poll includes some Qs about impact on future vote which are notoriously unreliable.
#politas
November 20, 2025 at 12:15 PM
uComms reported in the field too.
Stadium, tax increases, seems poll asked 2025 vote but not current intention. Poll includes some Qs about impact on future vote which are notoriously unreliable.
#politas
Stadium, tax increases, seems poll asked 2025 vote but not current intention. Poll includes some Qs about impact on future vote which are notoriously unreliable.
#politas
#Spectre Strategy ALP 33 L-NP 25 Green 12.5 ON 17.5 others 12.
2PP 53-47 to ALP by respondent preferences but my last-election prefs estimate 55.1 to ALP
Nov 4-17
2PP 53-47 to ALP by respondent preferences but my last-election prefs estimate 55.1 to ALP
Nov 4-17
November 20, 2025 at 9:10 AM
#Spectre Strategy ALP 33 L-NP 25 Green 12.5 ON 17.5 others 12.
2PP 53-47 to ALP by respondent preferences but my last-election prefs estimate 55.1 to ALP
Nov 4-17
2PP 53-47 to ALP by respondent preferences but my last-election prefs estimate 55.1 to ALP
Nov 4-17
Sky says Speakman will be rolled for Kellie Sloane this week. #nswpol
www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...
www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...
Liberal MP Kellie Sloane set to be new NSW Opposition Leader by Friday
Liberal MP Kellie Sloane is set to be the new leader of the NSW Opposition by Friday morning.
www.skynews.com.au
November 19, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Sky says Speakman will be rolled for Kellie Sloane this week. #nswpol
www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...
www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...
#Morgan ALP 33 L-NP 27 Grn 12.5 ON 14 Ind/other 13.5
2PP 56.5 to ALP (-0.5) by respondent prefs
55 to ALP (-2) by last election
My conversion for these primaries 55.1 to ALP (-1.6)
n=5428, Oct 20 - Nov 16
www.roymorgan.com/findings/995...
2PP 56.5 to ALP (-0.5) by respondent prefs
55 to ALP (-2) by last election
My conversion for these primaries 55.1 to ALP (-1.6)
n=5428, Oct 20 - Nov 16
www.roymorgan.com/findings/995...
In November, support for One Nation increased to its highest since 1998; ALP maintains two-party preferred lead - Roy Morgan Research
www.roymorgan.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:51 AM
#Morgan ALP 33 L-NP 27 Grn 12.5 ON 14 Ind/other 13.5
2PP 56.5 to ALP (-0.5) by respondent prefs
55 to ALP (-2) by last election
My conversion for these primaries 55.1 to ALP (-1.6)
n=5428, Oct 20 - Nov 16
www.roymorgan.com/findings/995...
2PP 56.5 to ALP (-0.5) by respondent prefs
55 to ALP (-2) by last election
My conversion for these primaries 55.1 to ALP (-1.6)
n=5428, Oct 20 - Nov 16
www.roymorgan.com/findings/995...
Would be interested to see a copy of this "draft letter" and any accompanying correspondence to establish if there is any sign that it was actually only a "draft". The letter should be published. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Liberal minister reneged on footy funding after club attended Labor presser
Tasmanian Sports Minister Nick Duigan has admitted he reneged on plans to give North Launceston Football Club $100,000 after the club's president did a media conference with Labor.
www.abc.net.au
November 18, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Would be interested to see a copy of this "draft letter" and any accompanying correspondence to establish if there is any sign that it was actually only a "draft". The letter should be published. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Jess Wilson wins Vic Liberal leadership, reports Sam Groth has narrowly beaten David Southwick to stay Deputy (watch that space) #springst
November 17, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Jess Wilson wins Vic Liberal leadership, reports Sam Groth has narrowly beaten David Southwick to stay Deputy (watch that space) #springst
So I saw something saying there was a shock poll in the Herald-Sun showing the Vic Liberals in an election winning position. My priors were 1. the article will be by James Campbell 2. it won't be a shock poll 3. the claim will not be true. All priors were confirmed!
November 17, 2025 at 9:22 PM
So I saw something saying there was a shock poll in the Herald-Sun showing the Vic Liberals in an election winning position. My priors were 1. the article will be by James Campbell 2. it won't be a shock poll 3. the claim will not be true. All priors were confirmed!
Sam Groth gets settlement against Herald-Sun, believed to include takedown, apology and hefty compensation www.theage.com.au/politics/vic...
Sam and Brittany Groth settle legal battle against Herald Sun
The deputy Liberal leader and his wife have reached an out-of-court agreement in which they will be financially compensated and receive a published apology.
www.theage.com.au
November 17, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Sam Groth gets settlement against Herald-Sun, believed to include takedown, apology and hefty compensation www.theage.com.au/politics/vic...