Kitsch Liao
@kitschquixote.bsky.social
Associate Director @ACGlobalChina | Military and Cyber Consultant @doublethinklab | Taiwan Defense & Security, PLA, Chinese Influence Operation. Views my own.
Classic example of why wargame should be read with caution:
1/ Without the aim, structure, and player roles, funder and organizer of the game, it's hard to separate artefacts of gameism, biases from organzier and funding, to judge the validity of observations.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa...
1/ Without the aim, structure, and player roles, funder and organizer of the game, it's hard to separate artefacts of gameism, biases from organzier and funding, to judge the validity of observations.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa...
A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective
In August 2025, 25 international experts gathered at Syracuse University to do something unusual: plan China's invasion of Taiwan. For two days,
warontherocks.com
October 9, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Classic example of why wargame should be read with caution:
1/ Without the aim, structure, and player roles, funder and organizer of the game, it's hard to separate artefacts of gameism, biases from organzier and funding, to judge the validity of observations.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa...
1/ Without the aim, structure, and player roles, funder and organizer of the game, it's hard to separate artefacts of gameism, biases from organzier and funding, to judge the validity of observations.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa...
Reposted by Kitsch Liao
The awesome Kitsch discussing wargames on China-Taiwan
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnWC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnWC...
Inside the Hidden World of War Games: Simulating China’s Taiwan Invasion | CONNECTED Podcast
YouTube video by CONNECTED on TaiwanPlus
www.youtube.com
October 7, 2025 at 4:05 AM
The awesome Kitsch discussing wargames on China-Taiwan
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnWC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnWC...
I talked to AFP abut the need to acclimate Taiwan’s population through efforts like this year’s Han Kuan Exercise
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Taipei holds air raid drill to prepare for Chinese attack
Taipei came to a brief standstill on Thursday when air raid sirens forced people off the streets and into underground shelters in a rehearsal for a Chinese attack.
www.france24.com
July 17, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I talked to AFP abut the need to acclimate Taiwan’s population through efforts like this year’s Han Kuan Exercise
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
PLA doctrinal writing has long talked about graphite bombs but there has rarely been public disclosure on any sort of development - would be interesting to keep an eye on
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
Video teases new Chinese blackout bomb that can knock out enemy power stations
Animation shared by state broadcaster shows what appears to be graphite bomb designed to disrupt command and control systems.
www.scmp.com
July 5, 2025 at 7:44 AM
PLA doctrinal writing has long talked about graphite bombs but there has rarely been public disclosure on any sort of development - would be interesting to keep an eye on
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
Please join me today at 12:30 Paris/18:30 ET to discuss China's long-arm jurisdiction and how it affects Taiwan's prospects for survival.
www.iris-france.org/en/event/chi...
www.iris-france.org/en/event/chi...
China’s Long-Arm Jurisdiction and Its Implications for Taiwan - IRIS
Webconference organised by IRIS. China’s use of long-arm jurisdiction, which is defined as an attempt to apply domestic laws beyond its borders, has important implications for Taiwan, especially amid ...
www.iris-france.org
July 3, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Please join me today at 12:30 Paris/18:30 ET to discuss China's long-arm jurisdiction and how it affects Taiwan's prospects for survival.
www.iris-france.org/en/event/chi...
www.iris-france.org/en/event/chi...
I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Trump administration claims Chinese students ‘exploit’ U.S. universities
Beijing has prioritized the return of talented Chinese studying overseas to help development in high-tech fields. But are Chinese students in the United States really a national security threat?
www.washingtonpost.com
June 4, 2025 at 11:48 PM
I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Trump administration claims Chinese students ‘exploit’ U.S. universities
Beijing has prioritized the return of talented Chinese studying overseas to help development in high-tech fields. But are Chinese students in the United States really a national security threat?
www.washingtonpost.com
June 4, 2025 at 11:48 PM
I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Chatted a bit with the Telegraph on what readiness means in manifesting military power.
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
How America is losing its military supremacy to China
Beijing’s army boasts almost a million more troops than the US and has the largest navy in the world
www.telegraph.co.uk
June 4, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Chatted a bit with the Telegraph on what readiness means in manifesting military power.
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
1/ Xi made it clear in his op-ed to the Russians his No.1 priority is Taiwan, that Russia and China fought 80 years ago against Fascists - but the Soviet Volunteer Group (SVG) was fighting alongside the Republic of China (now Taiwan) armed forces, and Beijing is trying to erase that.
May 9, 2025 at 4:09 PM
1/ Xi made it clear in his op-ed to the Russians his No.1 priority is Taiwan, that Russia and China fought 80 years ago against Fascists - but the Soviet Volunteer Group (SVG) was fighting alongside the Republic of China (now Taiwan) armed forces, and Beijing is trying to erase that.
How does your misrepresentation match up perfectly with PRC propaganda?
May 5, 2025 at 9:09 PM
How does your misrepresentation match up perfectly with PRC propaganda?
1/ Ahead of tomorrow’s GMU chat on Taiwan’s defense issues, I wanted to highlight this article by @MichaelHunzeker
and Yuster Yu on the root cause of Taiwan’s rather ineffective military, and share a few of my thoughts.
warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiw...
and Yuster Yu on the root cause of Taiwan’s rather ineffective military, and share a few of my thoughts.
warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiw...
Taiwan’s Biggest Problem in Steeling Itself for War with China is Cultural - War on the Rocks
General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly wants to prepare China for a war over Taiwan. The measures he is taking to ready its people, economy, legal system,
warontherocks.com
May 1, 2025 at 7:36 PM
1/ Ahead of tomorrow’s GMU chat on Taiwan’s defense issues, I wanted to highlight this article by @MichaelHunzeker
and Yuster Yu on the root cause of Taiwan’s rather ineffective military, and share a few of my thoughts.
warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiw...
and Yuster Yu on the root cause of Taiwan’s rather ineffective military, and share a few of my thoughts.
warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiw...
I'll be talking about Taiwan's military balance with @MichaelHunzeker and all this Friday afternoon 1630-1800 at George Mason. Everyone's welcome to stop by if free!
RSVP: [email protected]
RSVP: [email protected]
April 29, 2025 at 12:04 AM
I'll be talking about Taiwan's military balance with @MichaelHunzeker and all this Friday afternoon 1630-1800 at George Mason. Everyone's welcome to stop by if free!
RSVP: [email protected]
RSVP: [email protected]
I analyzed Taiwan QDR's shift in CONOP, including 7 phases of defense and decentralized command. Using Taiwan's force planning model, I examined QDR's response to challenges and highlight Taiwan's lack of strategic integration and transparency on defense.
jamestown.org/program/taiw...
jamestown.org/program/taiw...
Taiwan Focuses on Societal Resilience and U.S. Cooperation in New Defense Review
Executive Summary: Taiwan’s 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant...
jamestown.org
April 28, 2025 at 3:24 PM
I analyzed Taiwan QDR's shift in CONOP, including 7 phases of defense and decentralized command. Using Taiwan's force planning model, I examined QDR's response to challenges and highlight Taiwan's lack of strategic integration and transparency on defense.
jamestown.org/program/taiw...
jamestown.org/program/taiw...
It was an absolute pleasure to be part of Sigur Center for Asian Studies' Taiwan roundtable this year alongside Professor Dean Chen and @ for the afternoon panel. Many thanks to Director @ericschluessel.bsky.social and Assistant Director for putting up this superb event.
April 28, 2025 at 2:28 PM
It was an absolute pleasure to be part of Sigur Center for Asian Studies' Taiwan roundtable this year alongside Professor Dean Chen and @ for the afternoon panel. Many thanks to Director @ericschluessel.bsky.social and Assistant Director for putting up this superb event.
If anyone’s free tomorrow afternoon - you’re welcome to come and see my blab about Taiwan’s overall security situation and the new resilience effort!
The First 100 Days: Trump 2.0 and U.S.-Taiwan and Cross Strait Relations www.eventbrite.com/e/the-first-...
The First 100 Days: Trump 2.0 and U.S.-Taiwan and Cross Strait Relations www.eventbrite.com/e/the-first-...
The First 100 Days: Trump 2.0 and U.S.-Taiwan and Cross Strait Relations
Join the Sigur Center to discuss how Donald Trump's second term is impacting U.S.-Taiwan relations and Cross Strait relations.
www.eventbrite.com
April 23, 2025 at 5:17 PM
If anyone’s free tomorrow afternoon - you’re welcome to come and see my blab about Taiwan’s overall security situation and the new resilience effort!
The First 100 Days: Trump 2.0 and U.S.-Taiwan and Cross Strait Relations www.eventbrite.com/e/the-first-...
The First 100 Days: Trump 2.0 and U.S.-Taiwan and Cross Strait Relations www.eventbrite.com/e/the-first-...
For the first time we can definitively link China Coast Guard as under OPCON of PLA's ETC; this combined with its undeclared operation designating targets within 24nm of Taiwan for missile strike represents an unprecedented escalation using law enforcement as cover to gain military advantage.
China is militarizing its coast guard against Taiwan. Here’s how Taipei and its allies can respond.
As new evidence emerges about China's practice of using its coast guard for military purposes, Taiwan and the US have the tools to push back.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
April 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
For the first time we can definitively link China Coast Guard as under OPCON of PLA's ETC; this combined with its undeclared operation designating targets within 24nm of Taiwan for missile strike represents an unprecedented escalation using law enforcement as cover to gain military advantage.
PLA is openly intercepting US Army HADES jet south of Taiwan “you are within 24 miles of China’s Taiwan, state your intent”
def.ltn.com.tw/article/brea...
def.ltn.com.tw/article/brea...
獨家》美軍機飛越恆春外海空域竟遭共機攔截 緊張局勢再升溫 - 自由軍武頻道
中國機艦未停止襲擾我國海空域，今天清晨6時47分，一架美國軍機飛越台灣恆春外海附近空域時，竟遭到中共軍機攔截並試圖驅趕，雙方在空中展開激烈對話。根據軍事粉專「Taiwan Adiz」記錄，中共軍機廣播質問：「美國軍機，你已進入中國台灣24浬區域，你的意圖是什麼？」美軍機則強硬回應：「我正在國際空域依
def.ltn.com.tw
April 6, 2025 at 2:15 AM
PLA is openly intercepting US Army HADES jet south of Taiwan “you are within 24 miles of China’s Taiwan, state your intent”
def.ltn.com.tw/article/brea...
def.ltn.com.tw/article/brea...
Taiwan’s Coast Guard for the first time confirmed that China’s Coast Guard was directed from the ETC JOCC, same as PLA, during the exercise.
www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/20...
www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/20...
海巡署：中國海警一套人馬兩套招牌 聽命戰區指揮部 | 政治 | 中央社 CNA
海巡署副署長謝慶欽今天表示，中國海警是「一套人馬、兩套招牌」，軍艦隸屬中央軍委會並受戰區指揮部指揮，但在海上執法就是公務船，由海巡署應處，非到萬不得已，海巡署不會請求海軍支援。
www.cna.com.tw
April 3, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Taiwan’s Coast Guard for the first time confirmed that China’s Coast Guard was directed from the ETC JOCC, same as PLA, during the exercise.
www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/20...
www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/20...
Ahead of PLA's April Fool's, I talked to Newsweek on how expnasion beyond has been at the core of PLAN thinking since Admiral Liu Huaqing (刘华清) , and extend far left of bang in current gray zone operation. shorturl.at/tmPiL
Island chains: Can the US's Cold War strategy still contain China?
China is expanding its military reach and presence within the three Pacific island chains with the world's largest navy.
shorturl.at
April 1, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Ahead of PLA's April Fool's, I talked to Newsweek on how expnasion beyond has been at the core of PLAN thinking since Admiral Liu Huaqing (刘华清) , and extend far left of bang in current gray zone operation. shorturl.at/tmPiL
I discussed with Newsweek on how LRASM fits into Taiwan's defense picture, emphasizing Taiwan should prioritize C5ISTAR and EMSO resiliency first.
www.newsweek.com/us-allies-an...
www.newsweek.com/us-allies-an...
How the US is arming allies with missiles to sink China's warships
The U.S. is arming China's regional rivals to the teeth with ship-sinking capabilities.
www.newsweek.com
March 25, 2025 at 7:37 PM
I discussed with Newsweek on how LRASM fits into Taiwan's defense picture, emphasizing Taiwan should prioritize C5ISTAR and EMSO resiliency first.
www.newsweek.com/us-allies-an...
www.newsweek.com/us-allies-an...
Reviewing Lai's first QDR, I emphasize the need for more transparency despite some positive developments, and the disclosure of lingering issues hampering Taiwan's national security.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Reading between the lines of Taiwan’s new Quadrennial Defense Review
The recently released Quadrennial Defense Review offers a window into the Taiwanese military’s issues with prioritization, operational readiness, and manpower retention.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
March 25, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Reviewing Lai's first QDR, I emphasize the need for more transparency despite some positive developments, and the disclosure of lingering issues hampering Taiwan's national security.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
I talked to Sky News Australia on China's irresponsible "silent ramp up" and Taiwan's need for a coherent case for its place within US national interest.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw64...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw64...
Taiwan faces more military pressure from China
YouTube video by Sky News Australia
www.youtube.com
January 13, 2025 at 12:52 PM
I talked to Sky News Australia on China's irresponsible "silent ramp up" and Taiwan's need for a coherent case for its place within US national interest.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw64...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw64...
In this peice, I contend that China has the intent and capability to make PLA a "world-class military," but this also creates a dangerous incentive structure for China to extend beyond its ambition to invade Taiwan.
www.newsweek.com/what-will-ch...
www.newsweek.com/what-will-ch...
What will China do with its newfound military power?
China has the intent and capability to become a "world-class military," experts told Newsweek.
www.newsweek.com
January 10, 2025 at 1:49 AM
In this peice, I contend that China has the intent and capability to make PLA a "world-class military," but this also creates a dangerous incentive structure for China to extend beyond its ambition to invade Taiwan.
www.newsweek.com/what-will-ch...
www.newsweek.com/what-will-ch...
I talked to newsweek on how China "skipped" a generaiton due to Sino-Soviet split, and ultimately how futile and dangerous the moniker of "sixth gen" is.
www.newsweek.com/us-china-new...
www.newsweek.com/us-china-new...
What is "next-generation" fighter aircraft in US-China air power race?
The next-generation fighter aircraft are designed to be superior to the existing most advanced combat jets.
www.newsweek.com
January 7, 2025 at 1:51 PM
I talked to newsweek on how China "skipped" a generaiton due to Sino-Soviet split, and ultimately how futile and dangerous the moniker of "sixth gen" is.
www.newsweek.com/us-china-new...
www.newsweek.com/us-china-new...
I talked to Newsweek on China's new AEW&C KJ-3000, its extended service ceiling and radar horizon, how this factors into power projection beyond FIC, but how far would depend on China's ability to extend Control of the Air beyond its coastal area.
www.newsweek.com/china-unveil...
www.newsweek.com/china-unveil...
China unveils new eye in the sky to detect US aircraft
The Chinese KJ-3000, an airborne early warning and control aircraft, is designed to detect aircraft and cruise missiles.
www.newsweek.com
January 6, 2025 at 8:39 PM
I talked to Newsweek on China's new AEW&C KJ-3000, its extended service ceiling and radar horizon, how this factors into power projection beyond FIC, but how far would depend on China's ability to extend Control of the Air beyond its coastal area.
www.newsweek.com/china-unveil...
www.newsweek.com/china-unveil...