Ville Kostian
@kostianv.bsky.social
Geopolitics, geoeconomics and military.
" #Trump envoy #Witkoff reportedly advised #Kremlin official on #Ukraine peace deal" - #Russia
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump envoy Witkoff reportedly advised Kremlin official on Ukraine peace deal
Steve Witkoff spoke to Yuri Ushakov on territorial control and suggested congratulating Donald Trump and framing talks more optimistically, audio recording suggests
www.theguardian.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:03 AM
"Russian mercenaries accused of cold-blooded killings in #Mali" - #Russia
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Russia's Wagner group accused of killing civilians in cold-blood in Mali
Refugees have given the BBC a harrowing account of atrocities committed by the Russian paramilitary force.
www.bbc.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:52 AM
"Russian mercenaries accused of cold-blooded killings in #Mali" - #Russia
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
" #Russia ’s #shadowfleet just won’t go away. Countries in the #Baltic Sea region have tried virtually every legal means of stopping this gnawing headache for every country whose waters have been traversed by these mostly dilapidated vessels"
www.politico.eu/article/emer...
www.politico.eu/article/emer...
The emergence of the shadow shipbreaking market
The shadow fleet now has its own system for scrapping ships, and it’s even riskier than the official one.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2025 at 5:49 AM
" #Russia ’s #shadowfleet just won’t go away. Countries in the #Baltic Sea region have tried virtually every legal means of stopping this gnawing headache for every country whose waters have been traversed by these mostly dilapidated vessels"
www.politico.eu/article/emer...
www.politico.eu/article/emer...
#EU - "Europeans sketch out plan B in race to raid Russian assets for #Ukraine" - #Russia
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
Europeans sketch out plan B in race to raid Russian assets for Ukraine
Officials are looking at an EU bridging loan to help Kyiv stay afloat if they can’t agree on using Moscow’s frozen state assets in time.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2025 at 5:47 AM
#EU - "Europeans sketch out plan B in race to raid Russian assets for #Ukraine" - #Russia
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
4/ Russian officials and ultranationalist voices continue rejecting the original and revised US-proposed peace plan drafts and are attempting to portray Europe as responsible for the Russian rejection.
November 25, 2025 at 5:41 AM
4/ Russian officials and ultranationalist voices continue rejecting the original and revised US-proposed peace plan drafts and are attempting to portray Europe as responsible for the Russian rejection.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
3/ Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Velykomykhailivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
November 25, 2025 at 5:41 AM
3/ Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Velykomykhailivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Read the full report:
Seizing the Initiative against Russia: Putting the United States in Control
To deter and win future wars, America must be able to seize the initiative against any actor it may need to fight.
isw.pub
November 25, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Read the full report:
Reposted by Ville Kostian
7/ The Trump Administration should use its relationship with the new Syrian government to push the Russians out entirely.
November 25, 2025 at 8:46 PM
7/ The Trump Administration should use its relationship with the new Syrian government to push the Russians out entirely.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
As ISW’s Nataliya Bugayova writes, Putin counts on offsets — using operations and partnerships in one region to offset the limits of Russia’s capability in another. (1/7)
Read the full report: isw.pub/SeizingtheIn...
Read the full report: isw.pub/SeizingtheIn...
November 25, 2025 at 8:46 PM
As ISW’s Nataliya Bugayova writes, Putin counts on offsets — using operations and partnerships in one region to offset the limits of Russia’s capability in another. (1/7)
Read the full report: isw.pub/SeizingtheIn...
Read the full report: isw.pub/SeizingtheIn...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
4/ PRC state media signalled support for independence movements on Japan’s Ryukyu islands as part of the CCP coercion of Tokyo. This PRC rhetoric threatens Japanese sovereignty and may be part of an effort to erode Japanese control there.
November 25, 2025 at 10:54 PM
4/ PRC state media signalled support for independence movements on Japan’s Ryukyu islands as part of the CCP coercion of Tokyo. This PRC rhetoric threatens Japanese sovereignty and may be part of an effort to erode Japanese control there.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
3/ The CCP has further escalated against Japan in response to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi saying that a war over Taiwan could threaten Japanese security. The CCP is trying to deter Japan and others from tying their security to that of Taiwan.
November 25, 2025 at 10:54 PM
3/ The CCP has further escalated against Japan in response to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi saying that a war over Taiwan could threaten Japanese security. The CCP is trying to deter Japan and others from tying their security to that of Taiwan.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
NEW: The PLA experimented with using civilian vessels in an amphibious landing exercise in August 2025 to enhance its limited sealift capacity. (🧵1/4)
Read more in the November 25, 2025, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Read more in the November 25, 2025, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
November 25, 2025 at 10:53 PM
NEW: The PLA experimented with using civilian vessels in an amphibious landing exercise in August 2025 to enhance its limited sealift capacity. (🧵1/4)
Read more in the November 25, 2025, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Read more in the November 25, 2025, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Reposted by Ville Kostian
5/ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces interdicted a shipment of explosive devices, weapons, and ammunition reportedly smuggled by Kurdistan Workers’ Party-linked fighters into northwestern Iran on November 25.
November 26, 2025 at 1:13 AM
5/ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces interdicted a shipment of explosive devices, weapons, and ammunition reportedly smuggled by Kurdistan Workers’ Party-linked fighters into northwestern Iran on November 25.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
NEW: Unspecified Iranian officials told The Telegraph on November 25 that the Houthis and some unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have become less responsive to Tehran. (1/5)
Iran Update, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate11...
Other Key Takeaways:
Iran Update, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate11...
Other Key Takeaways:
November 26, 2025 at 1:12 AM
NEW: Unspecified Iranian officials told The Telegraph on November 25 that the Houthis and some unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have become less responsive to Tehran. (1/5)
Iran Update, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate11...
Other Key Takeaways:
Iran Update, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate11...
Other Key Takeaways:
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Reposted by Ville Kostian
7/ Russian forces are employing their new offensive template in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize Kostyantynivka and threaten the Ukrainian Fortress Belt from the south.
November 26, 2025 at 4:38 AM
7/ Russian forces are employing their new offensive template in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize Kostyantynivka and threaten the Ukrainian Fortress Belt from the south.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
NEW: The Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.🧵(1/7)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525
Other Key Takeaways:
November 26, 2025 at 4:37 AM
NEW: The Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.🧵(1/7)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525
Other Key Takeaways:
Reposted by Ville Kostian
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff isn’t working for the US, or for humanity. He’s working for Vladimir Putin. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 25, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff isn’t working for the US, or for humanity. He’s working for Vladimir Putin. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Ville Kostian
There is a sense that even Trump’s MAGA movement doesn’t totally belong to him any longer.
The Wobbling of King Trump
At home and abroad, his autocratic approach is starting to run aground.
foreignpolicy.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:30 PM
There is a sense that even Trump’s MAGA movement doesn’t totally belong to him any longer.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
⚡️ Ukraine reportedly destroys 2 Russian aircraft, including rare A-60.
The A-60 is a rare Soviet-era experimental aircraft developed to test missile defense and anti-satellite technologies.
The A-60 is a rare Soviet-era experimental aircraft developed to test missile defense and anti-satellite technologies.
Ukraine reportedly destroys 2 Russian aircraft, including rare A-60
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Il-76 heavy transport aircraft as well as an experimental A-60 airborne laser complex, according to Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems...
kyivindependent.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:18 PM
⚡️ Ukraine reportedly destroys 2 Russian aircraft, including rare A-60.
The A-60 is a rare Soviet-era experimental aircraft developed to test missile defense and anti-satellite technologies.
The A-60 is a rare Soviet-era experimental aircraft developed to test missile defense and anti-satellite technologies.
Reposted by Ville Kostian
"We work, we fight, we defend the northern borders," Murmansk Governor Andrei Chibis exclaimed and slammed his hands on Putin's table in a bid to attract the dictator's attention
Banging on Putin's table
'We work, we fight, we defend the northern borders,' Governor of Murmansk Andrei Chibis exclaimed and beat his hands against the dictator's table in a meeting in the Kremlin this week.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
"We work, we fight, we defend the northern borders," Murmansk Governor Andrei Chibis exclaimed and slammed his hands on Putin's table in a bid to attract the dictator's attention
Reposted by Ville Kostian
As many as 16 bomber planes flew from Belaya air base in Siberia to the Olenya air base south of Murmansk on Monday.
Group of Tu-22M3 bombers redepolyed to Kola
As many as 16 bomber planes flew from Belaya air base in Siberia to the Olenya air base south of Murmansk on Monday.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:22 PM
As many as 16 bomber planes flew from Belaya air base in Siberia to the Olenya air base south of Murmansk on Monday.
" #Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into #Romania" - #Russia
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into Romania
Fighter jets track two uncrewed aircraft in first daytime breach of Romanian airspace since full-scale Ukraine war
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:28 PM
" #Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into #Romania" - #Russia
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...