Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.
China's wind and solar capacity additions rebounded in October after the predictable slump over the summer. 14 GW solar and 9 GW wind was added to the grid, after an average of 9 GW solar and 3 GW wind per month in the past three months.
November 26, 2025 at 12:47 PM
China's wind and solar capacity additions rebounded in October after the predictable slump over the summer. 14 GW solar and 9 GW wind was added to the grid, after an average of 9 GW solar and 3 GW wind per month in the past three months.
China's official news agency Xinhua puts the country's coal peak at "around 2027" and oil peak "around 2026", also referencing the commitment to "gradually reduce" coal consumption that has been missing from recent policy papers.
November 25, 2025 at 12:58 PM
China's official news agency Xinhua puts the country's coal peak at "around 2027" and oil peak "around 2026", also referencing the commitment to "gradually reduce" coal consumption that has been missing from recent policy papers.
I made a peace deal with a rabid dog: I give it a sausage and take off my protective gear, and it won't bite me again. It took the sausage so now we have peace. On my way to Oslo to pick up the peace prize. This is how you all sound talking about "peace deals" with Russia.
November 25, 2025 at 6:04 AM
I made a peace deal with a rabid dog: I give it a sausage and take off my protective gear, and it won't bite me again. It took the sausage so now we have peace. On my way to Oslo to pick up the peace prize. This is how you all sound talking about "peace deals" with Russia.
More flexible operation of coal power plants could cut power sector CO2 by 11%, electricity costs by 2.5% and double the share of solar and wind that the grid can accommodate without curtailment or energy storage - our new case study for China's Zhejiang province.
November 25, 2025 at 6:04 AM
More flexible operation of coal power plants could cut power sector CO2 by 11%, electricity costs by 2.5% and double the share of solar and wind that the grid can accommodate without curtailment or energy storage - our new case study for China's Zhejiang province.
We've spent decades trying to persuade societies to give up a small fraction of short-term growth in exchange for avoiding the climate crisis in the long term, with mixed success. Good luck convincing everyone to give up the pursuit of growth and prosperity wholesale instead.
There is no end of the #climatecrisis without the end of growth
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 AM
We've spent decades trying to persuade societies to give up a small fraction of short-term growth in exchange for avoiding the climate crisis in the long term, with mixed success. Good luck convincing everyone to give up the pursuit of growth and prosperity wholesale instead.
China's electricity consumption grew a whopping 10.4% year-on-year in October. Partially explained by big jumps in residential and service sector demand, up by 24% and 17%, but industrial demand also up 6.2% - looks like an end of five-year plan push to meet economic targets.
China's power generation from coal and gas saw a big jump in October, rising 7% on year. Generation is still down marginally, 0.4% in the year to October. Likely reasons: weather variation affecting residential&commercial power demand, and solar&wind curtailment.
November 21, 2025 at 7:51 AM
China's electricity consumption grew a whopping 10.4% year-on-year in October. Partially explained by big jumps in residential and service sector demand, up by 24% and 17%, but industrial demand also up 6.2% - looks like an end of five-year plan push to meet economic targets.
China's vice minister for environment Li Gao strongly puts forward the economic growth argument for China's green and low-carbon transformation, also citing our @creacleanair.bsky.social research on the contribution of clean energy sectors to China's GDP.
November 21, 2025 at 6:03 AM
China's vice minister for environment Li Gao strongly puts forward the economic growth argument for China's green and low-carbon transformation, also citing our @creacleanair.bsky.social research on the contribution of clean energy sectors to China's GDP.
China's power generation from coal and gas saw a big jump in October, rising 7% on year. Generation is still down marginally, 0.4% in the year to October. Likely reasons: weather variation affecting residential&commercial power demand, and solar&wind curtailment.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
China's power generation from coal and gas saw a big jump in October, rising 7% on year. Generation is still down marginally, 0.4% in the year to October. Likely reasons: weather variation affecting residential&commercial power demand, and solar&wind curtailment.
So the data center expansion could contribute a 3% increase to U.S. energy CO2 emissions and 7% increase to fossil gas use by 2035. That's not insignificant and heaven knows we can't afford any extra CO2 but I think most people are getting an overblown idea of the impact.
November 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
So the data center expansion could contribute a 3% increase to U.S. energy CO2 emissions and 7% increase to fossil gas use by 2035. That's not insignificant and heaven knows we can't afford any extra CO2 but I think most people are getting an overblown idea of the impact.
The @IEA is repeating its abject failure to account for the solar boom, now with EVs, to create an alternative reality for Trump where oil-burning vehicles will dominate transportation and oil demand will keep growing.
This is really quite scandalous... the key assumption that means rising oil demand is that EV sales share will be the same in 2050 as in 2024 in EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD (except China+EU) 🤷♂️
🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
November 13, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The @IEA is repeating its abject failure to account for the solar boom, now with EVs, to create an alternative reality for Trump where oil-burning vehicles will dominate transportation and oil demand will keep growing.
NEW from me: CO2 emissions in China have now been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time that energy demand growth at or above historical averages doesn't drive emissions up, thanks to the clean energy boom. 🧵👇
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
NEW from me: CO2 emissions in China have now been flat or falling for 18 months, the first time that energy demand growth at or above historical averages doesn't drive emissions up, thanks to the clean energy boom. 🧵👇
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 2:27 AM
🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org
China's formal submission of its new climate targets leaves out the commitment made in 2021 to gradually reduce coal consumption in 2026-30. It does reiterate the commitment to reduce carbon intensity, which is currently badly off track, but doesn't provide any progress update.
November 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
China's formal submission of its new climate targets leaves out the commitment made in 2021 to gradually reduce coal consumption in 2026-30. It does reiterate the commitment to reduce carbon intensity, which is currently badly off track, but doesn't provide any progress update.
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
November 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.
🇨🇳 NEW | Experts think #China can exceed its new 2035 #NDCs, but are less certain about short-term #emissions cuts
Full China Climate Transition Outlook 2025 survey:
energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-climate-transition-outlook-2025-expert-survey/
w/ @belindaschaepe.bsky.social; Xunpeng Shi
Full China Climate Transition Outlook 2025 survey:
energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-climate-transition-outlook-2025-expert-survey/
w/ @belindaschaepe.bsky.social; Xunpeng Shi
November 6, 2025 at 5:10 AM
China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.
Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta
🇨🇳 🇺🇳 NEW | Report: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban 4 years on
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
November 3, 2025 at 12:30 AM
🇨🇳 🇺🇳 NEW | Report: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban 4 years on
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.
The construction of a “new power system” that can efficiently integrate renewables still needs to be “accelerated”. Other areas of acceleration are electricity storage, which should be “developed vigorously”, and electrification of final energy consumption.
October 29, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
October 29, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement.
bsky.app/profile/crea...
bsky.app/profile/crea...
🇨🇳 🇮🇳 🇮🇩 NEW | #China, #India, and #Indonesia: the world's top #coal growth markets can all peak #emissions by 2030
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
@manojkumarnr.bsky.social
energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-india-and-indonesia-the-worlds-top-coal-growth-markets-can-all-peak-emissions-by-2030
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
@manojkumarnr.bsky.social
energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-india-and-indonesia-the-worlds-top-coal-growth-markets-can-all-peak-emissions-by-2030
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement.
bsky.app/profile/crea...
bsky.app/profile/crea...
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
October 27, 2025 at 11:44 AM
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
October 27, 2025 at 7:49 AM
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
Last new coal plant proposals cancelled or shelved in Thailand, Kenya, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan, Cambodia deciding not to build any new coal, Morocco committing to a 2040 coal phase-out, proposals for new coal power outside China at record low - lots of progress happening outside front page news.
New data from our Global #CoalPlant Tracker is out. A few key trends:
📉 Countries w/coal power under dev't hit a record low — only 33 remain since the Paris Agreement.
📉 New proposals fell below 2 GW in Q3 2025 — 85% below recent averages.
Explore the data ⤵️
globalenergymonitor.org/projects/glo...
📉 Countries w/coal power under dev't hit a record low — only 33 remain since the Paris Agreement.
📉 New proposals fell below 2 GW in Q3 2025 — 85% below recent averages.
Explore the data ⤵️
globalenergymonitor.org/projects/glo...
October 23, 2025 at 5:12 AM
Last new coal plant proposals cancelled or shelved in Thailand, Kenya, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan, Cambodia deciding not to build any new coal, Morocco committing to a 2040 coal phase-out, proposals for new coal power outside China at record low - lots of progress happening outside front page news.
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
October 20, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.
October 15, 2025 at 11:18 AM
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.