Librarian Capital
@librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
Pinned
We publish research on interesting stocks on Substack
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies
"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly
Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com
Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies
"Institutional-grade research at retail prices"
Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly
Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot
librariancapital.substack.com
"A broken clock is right twice a day", but "the boy who cried wolf" is useless as a predictive signal
December 15, 2025 at 9:20 AM
"A broken clock is right twice a day", but "the boy who cried wolf" is useless as a predictive signal
Something we did not expect to see:
Walmart $WMT shares have outperformed Microsoft $MSFT shares over both the past 5 years and LTM
L5Y: WMT price gain of 140% vs. MSFT's 119%
LTM: WMT price gain of 23% vs. MSFT's 6%
Walmart $WMT shares have outperformed Microsoft $MSFT shares over both the past 5 years and LTM
L5Y: WMT price gain of 140% vs. MSFT's 119%
LTM: WMT price gain of 23% vs. MSFT's 6%
December 14, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Something we did not expect to see:
Walmart $WMT shares have outperformed Microsoft $MSFT shares over both the past 5 years and LTM
L5Y: WMT price gain of 140% vs. MSFT's 119%
LTM: WMT price gain of 23% vs. MSFT's 6%
Walmart $WMT shares have outperformed Microsoft $MSFT shares over both the past 5 years and LTM
L5Y: WMT price gain of 140% vs. MSFT's 119%
LTM: WMT price gain of 23% vs. MSFT's 6%
"Australia will ban supermarket price gouging" (Bloomberg)
"ACCC ... found the grocery sector is ... an effective oligopoly (and) ... Australia’s largest supermarket groups rank among the most profitable globally"
Coles $COL and Woolworths $WOW supermarket EBIT margins at ~5.5%
"ACCC ... found the grocery sector is ... an effective oligopoly (and) ... Australia’s largest supermarket groups rank among the most profitable globally"
Coles $COL and Woolworths $WOW supermarket EBIT margins at ~5.5%
Australia to Ban Supermarket Price Gouging in Sweeping Competition Reforms
Australia will ban supermarket price gouging from July 1 under a new law the government says would protect shoppers from excessive grocery prices charged by major retailers.
www.bloomberg.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:48 PM
"Australia will ban supermarket price gouging" (Bloomberg)
"ACCC ... found the grocery sector is ... an effective oligopoly (and) ... Australia’s largest supermarket groups rank among the most profitable globally"
Coles $COL and Woolworths $WOW supermarket EBIT margins at ~5.5%
"ACCC ... found the grocery sector is ... an effective oligopoly (and) ... Australia’s largest supermarket groups rank among the most profitable globally"
Coles $COL and Woolworths $WOW supermarket EBIT margins at ~5.5%
2000: Time Warner gave up 55% of its equity to buy AOL
2025: Disney $DIS invests $1bn in OpenAI as part of an agreement where anyone* can use Sora to generate videos/images using 200 Disney characters and ... (check notes) Disney+ can stream some of these
(* for next 3 years)
2025: Disney $DIS invests $1bn in OpenAI as part of an agreement where anyone* can use Sora to generate videos/images using 200 Disney characters and ... (check notes) Disney+ can stream some of these
(* for next 3 years)
December 11, 2025 at 2:14 PM
2000: Time Warner gave up 55% of its equity to buy AOL
2025: Disney $DIS invests $1bn in OpenAI as part of an agreement where anyone* can use Sora to generate videos/images using 200 Disney characters and ... (check notes) Disney+ can stream some of these
(* for next 3 years)
2025: Disney $DIS invests $1bn in OpenAI as part of an agreement where anyone* can use Sora to generate videos/images using 200 Disney characters and ... (check notes) Disney+ can stream some of these
(* for next 3 years)
Altria $MO CEO succession
Billy Gifford to retire May-26; CEO since '20
CFO Sal Mancuso to be CEO; joined '90
Heather Newman to be CFO; joined '99
Gifford was CFO when MO paid $12.8bn for Juul stake
As CEO he paid $2.75bn for NJOY (now ITC ban), sold US IQOS rights back to $PM
Billy Gifford to retire May-26; CEO since '20
CFO Sal Mancuso to be CEO; joined '90
Heather Newman to be CFO; joined '99
Gifford was CFO when MO paid $12.8bn for Juul stake
As CEO he paid $2.75bn for NJOY (now ITC ban), sold US IQOS rights back to $PM
December 11, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Altria $MO CEO succession
Billy Gifford to retire May-26; CEO since '20
CFO Sal Mancuso to be CEO; joined '90
Heather Newman to be CFO; joined '99
Gifford was CFO when MO paid $12.8bn for Juul stake
As CEO he paid $2.75bn for NJOY (now ITC ban), sold US IQOS rights back to $PM
Billy Gifford to retire May-26; CEO since '20
CFO Sal Mancuso to be CEO; joined '90
Heather Newman to be CFO; joined '99
Gifford was CFO when MO paid $12.8bn for Juul stake
As CEO he paid $2.75bn for NJOY (now ITC ban), sold US IQOS rights back to $PM
Reposted by Librarian Capital
December 11, 2025 at 1:22 PM
The Telegraph, 2 days apart:
Tue: "Badenoch is right on masks*. Britons have already sacrificed enough to protect our national health service"
Today: "Flu crisis hits ‘worst-case scenario’. Cases rise by more than 50% in a week"
* Reject calls for a return to public masking
Tue: "Badenoch is right on masks*. Britons have already sacrificed enough to protect our national health service"
Today: "Flu crisis hits ‘worst-case scenario’. Cases rise by more than 50% in a week"
* Reject calls for a return to public masking
December 11, 2025 at 10:28 AM
The Telegraph, 2 days apart:
Tue: "Badenoch is right on masks*. Britons have already sacrificed enough to protect our national health service"
Today: "Flu crisis hits ‘worst-case scenario’. Cases rise by more than 50% in a week"
* Reject calls for a return to public masking
Tue: "Badenoch is right on masks*. Britons have already sacrificed enough to protect our national health service"
Today: "Flu crisis hits ‘worst-case scenario’. Cases rise by more than 50% in a week"
* Reject calls for a return to public masking
Nick Train on Rightmove
"In the US, ChatGPT has chosen to partner with ... Zillow, rather than compete ... It's not just a question of the inventory on the site ... What $RMV has is 'property intent & behaviour, signals for pricing, supply & demand dynamics and geographies'"
"In the US, ChatGPT has chosen to partner with ... Zillow, rather than compete ... It's not just a question of the inventory on the site ... What $RMV has is 'property intent & behaviour, signals for pricing, supply & demand dynamics and geographies'"
December 11, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Nick Train on Rightmove
"In the US, ChatGPT has chosen to partner with ... Zillow, rather than compete ... It's not just a question of the inventory on the site ... What $RMV has is 'property intent & behaviour, signals for pricing, supply & demand dynamics and geographies'"
"In the US, ChatGPT has chosen to partner with ... Zillow, rather than compete ... It's not just a question of the inventory on the site ... What $RMV has is 'property intent & behaviour, signals for pricing, supply & demand dynamics and geographies'"
"Oracle shares slide on $15bn increase in data centre spending" (FT)
$ORCL shares down ~11 pre-market after CapEx forecast raised "more than 40% to $50bn"
"It expected to generate $4bn more in revenue the following fiscal year"
NB. $PSKY $WBD bid's funded by Saudis, UAE, Qatar
$ORCL shares down ~11 pre-market after CapEx forecast raised "more than 40% to $50bn"
"It expected to generate $4bn more in revenue the following fiscal year"
NB. $PSKY $WBD bid's funded by Saudis, UAE, Qatar
December 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM
"Oracle shares slide on $15bn increase in data centre spending" (FT)
$ORCL shares down ~11 pre-market after CapEx forecast raised "more than 40% to $50bn"
"It expected to generate $4bn more in revenue the following fiscal year"
NB. $PSKY $WBD bid's funded by Saudis, UAE, Qatar
$ORCL shares down ~11 pre-market after CapEx forecast raised "more than 40% to $50bn"
"It expected to generate $4bn more in revenue the following fiscal year"
NB. $PSKY $WBD bid's funded by Saudis, UAE, Qatar
Reposted by Librarian Capital
freedom of speech
separation of church and state
and ICE’s acting director did what now
separation of church and state
and ICE’s acting director did what now
ICE’s acting director ordered a Boston Catholic parish to tear down its Advent Nativity scene—stripped of baby Jesus and branded with the message “ICE WAS HERE.” The parish priest is refusing, citing he pope’s call to stand with migrants. It's another chapter in Kristi Noem's war on Christians.
“ICE Was Here”: Pope Leo-Inspired Nativity Scene Sparks MAGA Outrage
A Nativity scene missing Jesus — and marked with an “ICE was here” sign — has triggered cries of “politicizing Christmas.” The parish priest says he’s answering Pope Leo's call to welcome stranger.
www.thelettersfromleo.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:40 PM
freedom of speech
separation of church and state
and ICE’s acting director did what now
separation of church and state
and ICE’s acting director did what now
"US proposes social media disclosure requirement for visitors from visa-free countries" (FT)
"The website for applications would also be decommissioned, leaving a mobile app as the only platform to request a visa waiver" - makes you wonder what data the app extracts
"The website for applications would also be decommissioned, leaving a mobile app as the only platform to request a visa waiver" - makes you wonder what data the app extracts
US proposes social media disclosure requirement for visitors from visa-free countries
Change would affect citizens of states including UK, France and Australia
www.ft.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:39 PM
"US proposes social media disclosure requirement for visitors from visa-free countries" (FT)
"The website for applications would also be decommissioned, leaving a mobile app as the only platform to request a visa waiver" - makes you wonder what data the app extracts
"The website for applications would also be decommissioned, leaving a mobile app as the only platform to request a visa waiver" - makes you wonder what data the app extracts
"JPMorgan shares slide (4.7%) as bank says expenses will jump $9bn in 2026" (FT)
$JPM "expecting expenses for 2026 of $105bn, up almost 10% from 2025"
Still ~3x Tangible Book Value ($105.70 at 25Q3)
Jamie Dimon said benefit of buybacks "diminishes every point" after 2x
www.ft.com/content/5256...
$JPM "expecting expenses for 2026 of $105bn, up almost 10% from 2025"
Still ~3x Tangible Book Value ($105.70 at 25Q3)
Jamie Dimon said benefit of buybacks "diminishes every point" after 2x
www.ft.com/content/5256...
December 10, 2025 at 9:04 AM
"JPMorgan shares slide (4.7%) as bank says expenses will jump $9bn in 2026" (FT)
$JPM "expecting expenses for 2026 of $105bn, up almost 10% from 2025"
Still ~3x Tangible Book Value ($105.70 at 25Q3)
Jamie Dimon said benefit of buybacks "diminishes every point" after 2x
www.ft.com/content/5256...
$JPM "expecting expenses for 2026 of $105bn, up almost 10% from 2025"
Still ~3x Tangible Book Value ($105.70 at 25Q3)
Jamie Dimon said benefit of buybacks "diminishes every point" after 2x
www.ft.com/content/5256...
Elanco $ELAN shares down 5.8% after investor day
New 2026-28 targets are:
MSD revenue growth
HSD Adj. EBITDA growth
LDD Adj. EPS growth
Market reaction implies these are either insufficient or unconvincing
New 2026-28 targets are:
MSD revenue growth
HSD Adj. EBITDA growth
LDD Adj. EPS growth
Market reaction implies these are either insufficient or unconvincing
December 10, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Elanco $ELAN shares down 5.8% after investor day
New 2026-28 targets are:
MSD revenue growth
HSD Adj. EBITDA growth
LDD Adj. EPS growth
Market reaction implies these are either insufficient or unconvincing
New 2026-28 targets are:
MSD revenue growth
HSD Adj. EBITDA growth
LDD Adj. EPS growth
Market reaction implies these are either insufficient or unconvincing
"Campari $CPR Owner in Talks to Settle Italy Tax Case for €400M" (Bloomberg)
"The case (is) over Lagfin SCA’s treatment of €5.3bn ($6.2bn) in capital gains"
"Payment will be divided into several installments", so they likely don't have to sell
"The case (is) over Lagfin SCA’s treatment of €5.3bn ($6.2bn) in capital gains"
"Payment will be divided into several installments", so they likely don't have to sell
Campari Owner in Talks to Settle Italy Tax Case for €400 Million
The owner of spritz maker Davide Campari-Milano NV is in advanced talks with Italian authorities to pay about €400 million ($465 million) to settle a criminal tax probe, according to people familiar w...
www.bloomberg.com
December 10, 2025 at 8:50 AM
"Campari $CPR Owner in Talks to Settle Italy Tax Case for €400M" (Bloomberg)
"The case (is) over Lagfin SCA’s treatment of €5.3bn ($6.2bn) in capital gains"
"Payment will be divided into several installments", so they likely don't have to sell
"The case (is) over Lagfin SCA’s treatment of €5.3bn ($6.2bn) in capital gains"
"Payment will be divided into several installments", so they likely don't have to sell
Reminder: Todd Combs networked his way to meeting Buffett, whereas Ted Weschler paid $5.3m for 2 lunches
"Weschler paid $2,626,311 last year (2010), and then won again (in 2011) with a slightly higher $2,626,411 bid" (Carol Loomis, via CNBC)
$BRK.B
"Weschler paid $2,626,311 last year (2010), and then won again (in 2011) with a slightly higher $2,626,411 bid" (Carol Loomis, via CNBC)
$BRK.B
$5.3M Dinners With Warren Buffett Lead to Dream Job for Money Manager
A portfolio manager who paid a total of $5.3 billion for two dinners with Warren Buffett has just been hired to help pick stocks at Berkshire Hathaway.
www.cnbc.com
December 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Reminder: Todd Combs networked his way to meeting Buffett, whereas Ted Weschler paid $5.3m for 2 lunches
"Weschler paid $2,626,311 last year (2010), and then won again (in 2011) with a slightly higher $2,626,411 bid" (Carol Loomis, via CNBC)
$BRK.B
"Weschler paid $2,626,311 last year (2010), and then won again (in 2011) with a slightly higher $2,626,411 bid" (Carol Loomis, via CNBC)
$BRK.B
Next time you see a reader comment in the FT that seems to show the reader hasn't read the article, note the FT often makes changes post publication
Most recommended comment in the article about Todd Combs' new job is one that points this out
132 likes imply many people noticed
Most recommended comment in the article about Todd Combs' new job is one that points this out
132 likes imply many people noticed
December 9, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Next time you see a reader comment in the FT that seems to show the reader hasn't read the article, note the FT often makes changes post publication
Most recommended comment in the article about Todd Combs' new job is one that points this out
132 likes imply many people noticed
Most recommended comment in the article about Todd Combs' new job is one that points this out
132 likes imply many people noticed
"Hospitals in England see more patients but waiting lists scarcely fall" (FT)
"No. of patients in England waiting for routine, non-emergency hospital treatment fell from 7.5m to 7.4m between Mar-24 & Mar-25 and has scarcely moved since"
Spire Healthcare $SPI down 23% LTM
www.ft.com/content/8c9b...
"No. of patients in England waiting for routine, non-emergency hospital treatment fell from 7.5m to 7.4m between Mar-24 & Mar-25 and has scarcely moved since"
Spire Healthcare $SPI down 23% LTM
www.ft.com/content/8c9b...
December 9, 2025 at 10:01 AM
"Hospitals in England see more patients but waiting lists scarcely fall" (FT)
"No. of patients in England waiting for routine, non-emergency hospital treatment fell from 7.5m to 7.4m between Mar-24 & Mar-25 and has scarcely moved since"
Spire Healthcare $SPI down 23% LTM
www.ft.com/content/8c9b...
"No. of patients in England waiting for routine, non-emergency hospital treatment fell from 7.5m to 7.4m between Mar-24 & Mar-25 and has scarcely moved since"
Spire Healthcare $SPI down 23% LTM
www.ft.com/content/8c9b...
British American Tobacco $BATS pre-close
Sees 2025 growth of ~2% in revenue and Adj. Profit from Ops. (was "top end of 1-2%", 1.5-2.5%)
Modern Oral category volume share
Top markets 31.8% (H1: 30.2%)
US 15.6% (H1: 13.2%, May: 15.6%)
US MO revenue up "triple-digit" (H1: +384%)
Sees 2025 growth of ~2% in revenue and Adj. Profit from Ops. (was "top end of 1-2%", 1.5-2.5%)
Modern Oral category volume share
Top markets 31.8% (H1: 30.2%)
US 15.6% (H1: 13.2%, May: 15.6%)
US MO revenue up "triple-digit" (H1: +384%)
December 9, 2025 at 9:34 AM
British American Tobacco $BATS pre-close
Sees 2025 growth of ~2% in revenue and Adj. Profit from Ops. (was "top end of 1-2%", 1.5-2.5%)
Modern Oral category volume share
Top markets 31.8% (H1: 30.2%)
US 15.6% (H1: 13.2%, May: 15.6%)
US MO revenue up "triple-digit" (H1: +384%)
Sees 2025 growth of ~2% in revenue and Adj. Profit from Ops. (was "top end of 1-2%", 1.5-2.5%)
Modern Oral category volume share
Top markets 31.8% (H1: 30.2%)
US 15.6% (H1: 13.2%, May: 15.6%)
US MO revenue up "triple-digit" (H1: +384%)
Todd Combs will report to Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan
He's been on $JPM board since 2016, resigning as director only yesterday (7-Dec)
Among obvious conflicts of interest, there's a period of time when he was negotiating his pay with Dimon while his legal duty was to supervise him
He's been on $JPM board since 2016, resigning as director only yesterday (7-Dec)
Among obvious conflicts of interest, there's a period of time when he was negotiating his pay with Dimon while his legal duty was to supervise him
December 8, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Todd Combs will report to Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan
He's been on $JPM board since 2016, resigning as director only yesterday (7-Dec)
Among obvious conflicts of interest, there's a period of time when he was negotiating his pay with Dimon while his legal duty was to supervise him
He's been on $JPM board since 2016, resigning as director only yesterday (7-Dec)
Among obvious conflicts of interest, there's a period of time when he was negotiating his pay with Dimon while his legal duty was to supervise him
Reposted by Librarian Capital
NEW: The Trump administration has argued that Fed board member Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud by declaring more than one primary residence on her loans.
We found that Trump once did the very thing he claimed could be a crime.
We found that Trump once did the very thing he claimed could be a crime.
Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud, Records Reveal
The Trump administration has argued that Fed board member Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud by declaring more than one primary residence on her loans. We found Trump once did the very thing he called “deceitful and potentially criminal.”
www.propublica.org
December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
NEW: The Trump administration has argued that Fed board member Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud by declaring more than one primary residence on her loans.
We found that Trump once did the very thing he claimed could be a crime.
We found that Trump once did the very thing he claimed could be a crime.
"Berkshire Hathaway stock picker Todd Combs to leave for JPMorgan" (FT) $BRK.B $JPM
"Combs is currently investment manager of Berkshire and chief executive of Geico"
"Combs is joining to run JPMorgan’s $10bn Strategic Investment Group"
"Combs is currently investment manager of Berkshire and chief executive of Geico"
"Combs is joining to run JPMorgan’s $10bn Strategic Investment Group"
Berkshire Hathaway stock picker Todd Combs to leave for JPMorgan
Warren Buffett announces leadership shake-up at conglomerate
www.ft.com
December 8, 2025 at 12:38 PM
"Berkshire Hathaway stock picker Todd Combs to leave for JPMorgan" (FT) $BRK.B $JPM
"Combs is currently investment manager of Berkshire and chief executive of Geico"
"Combs is joining to run JPMorgan’s $10bn Strategic Investment Group"
"Combs is currently investment manager of Berkshire and chief executive of Geico"
"Combs is joining to run JPMorgan’s $10bn Strategic Investment Group"
"L’Oréal doubles stake in Galderma to 20%" (FT)
$OR "buying the additional stake from a consortium led by private equity group EQT"
"Financial terms were not disclosed"
$GALD "have risen 82 per cent in the past year"
$OR "buying the additional stake from a consortium led by private equity group EQT"
"Financial terms were not disclosed"
$GALD "have risen 82 per cent in the past year"
L’Oréal doubles stake in Galderma to 20%
Beauty giant may take board seats but backs aesthetic injectables specialist’s independence
www.ft.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:10 AM
"L’Oréal doubles stake in Galderma to 20%" (FT)
$OR "buying the additional stake from a consortium led by private equity group EQT"
"Financial terms were not disclosed"
$GALD "have risen 82 per cent in the past year"
$OR "buying the additional stake from a consortium led by private equity group EQT"
"Financial terms were not disclosed"
$GALD "have risen 82 per cent in the past year"
Reposted by Librarian Capital
My constituent, Wilmer, was mauled by an ICE attack dog despite the fact that, as he has consistently explained, he was not resisting arrest or trying to flee—his wife and young children, all U.S. citizens, were forced to watch helplessly as Wilmer was violently attacked and dragged away.
December 6, 2025 at 2:41 AM
My constituent, Wilmer, was mauled by an ICE attack dog despite the fact that, as he has consistently explained, he was not resisting arrest or trying to flee—his wife and young children, all U.S. citizens, were forced to watch helplessly as Wilmer was violently attacked and dragged away.
MAHA = Make America Hepatitis Again
CDC advisers vote to abandon universal hepatitis B vaccination for newborns.
https://cnn.it/4pV4JCE
https://cnn.it/4pV4JCE
December 5, 2025 at 4:00 PM
MAHA = Make America Hepatitis Again
"Greggs $GRG Shares Get a Pick-Me-Up as JPMorgan Joins Ranks of Bulls" (Bloomberg)
Greggs Shares Jump After JPMorgan Initiates at Overweight
Greggs Plc shares jumped the most in two months Friday after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the struggling UK bakery firm is primed for a rebound.
www.bloomberg.com
December 5, 2025 at 1:53 PM
"Greggs $GRG Shares Get a Pick-Me-Up as JPMorgan Joins Ranks of Bulls" (Bloomberg)