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Mark Pack

@markpackuk.bsky.social

7.4K followers 820 following 3.8K posts

Lib Dem President and Life Peer. Author, "Polling UnPacked" / http://www.theweekinpolls.co.uk / https://libdemnewswire.substack.com / imprint + privacy http://markpack.org.uk/legal-privacy / he/him

www.theweekinpolls.co.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · Jul 6

A secret about how the House of Lords works: the Chief Whip's ring binder buff.ly/Whmcf0l < I have a new email newsletter

A secret about how the House of Lords works: the Chief Whip's ring binder

Welcome

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 44m

If I understand the methodology correctly, an 18 year old working in a museum shop counts as 'Establishment'. Which seems an unusual definition?

Very striking how different the answers among the "Establishment" are by age, making the age weighting very important.

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1h

To me, the most significant part of these findings seems to be the huge variation between different panel providers. Which highlights the value in knowing where a poll's panel data has come from, something that otherwise good polling transparency rules in the UK doesn't really tackle?

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1h

Hang on, don't you write newspaper columns Rob... :)

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2h

The ending of two party politics is looking rather like two party politics.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 4h

Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 47 (+40)
LDM: 32 (+10)
CON: 13 (-15)
LAB: 12 (-30)
GRN: 11 (+3)
Ind: 5 (-4)
Local: 3 (-3)
SNP: 1 (-1)
PLC: 1 (=)

Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 4h

It's a two member ward that split Labour and Reform last time, and hence those vote share changes showing Labour top last time.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 4h

What's the best column of his that you'd point people to in order to dispel scepticism about him? (I mainly come across his pieces when others are rubbishing them, which I know comes with a lot of selection bias.)

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 5h

You could have fun by changing your name to 'Official Statistics'.

Reposted by Mark Pack

Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 5h

NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos

Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...

Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election – chris hanretty

chris hanretty’s site

chrishanretty.co.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 6h

Lib Dems gain seat in Mel Stride’s constituency, again

Lib Dems gain seat in Mel Stride's constituency, again

The Liberal Democrats make another council by-election gain in Conservative frontbencher Mel Stride's constituency.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 8h

That's not unusual, but also not a reason to doubt polls for this reason: www.markpack.org.uk/169051/how-c...

How come I don't know anyone who has been polled?

Variations on 'I've never been polled and I don't know anyone who ever has been' are common amongst people sceptical about opinion polls.

www.markpack.org.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 21h

It works fairly well in practice, and I find that when I email pollsters about tables which haven't been released in that timescale, they usually respond promptly with the data (even at weekends(. So though not perfect (theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/how-to-imp...), it does seem better setup than US.

How to improve the regulation of political polling

Welcome to the 144th edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), which contains a special long read on what a process of relentless incrementalism to improve the self-regulation of political polling in this ...

theweekinpolls.substack.com

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks, will take a look.

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1d

Find the Lib Dems on Bluesky and Threads: some handy links to get you started -

Find the Lib Dems on Bluesky and Threads

Handy starting points for finding Liberal Democrats on Threads and Bluesky, along with lists for Lib Dem MPs and political polling.

www.markpack.org.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2d

Could it be you? New vacancy listed on Lib Dem website: Chief Steward (Volunteer)

Chief Steward (Volunteer)

The role of the Chief Steward is to organise the stewards’ team and oversee its activities in contributing to the running of all Liberal Democrat federal our Party conferences.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2d

Council by-elections results: the quarterly stats

Here are the scores on the doors for the latest quarter of principal authority council by-elections, showing vote and seat changes.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2d

Could it be you? New vacancy listed on Lib Dem website: Campaigns Manager (North West)

Campaigns Manager (North West)

To deliver election success in priority areas across the North West region, with a clear objective of putting “more gold on the map” – be it Lib Dem MPs, Lib Dem-led Councils, Lib Dem Mayors or...

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2d

Could it be you? New vacancy listed on Lib Dem website: Regional Development Officer (North West)

Regional Development Officer (North West)

To support local party election campaign teams in areas specified by the Regional Party and build capacity in campaigning. Drive better engagement with the full diversity of the region.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 2d

And by having immigrations make up nearly 90% of the population?

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Reposted by Mark Pack

Ed Davey @eddavey.libdems.org.uk · 3d

We have an independent judiciary in this country. Robert Jenrick wants puppet judges.

The Conservative Party once believed in the rule of law and our shared British values - no longer.

Robert Jenrick holds up a judges wig like a puppet during his speech to the Conservative Party Conference.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

Connoisseurs of Willie Rennie photo ops will of course be disappointed that his pumpkin was not dramatically over-sized.

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

It's a two pumpkin race.

General Boles @generalboles.bsky.social · 3d

Tory party conference got you down?

Far-right rhetoric left you feeling scared for the future?

Then why not take a minute to enjoy eighteen (18) pictures of Ed Davey on a pumpkin farm with young carers 🎃🚜

www.gettyimages.co.uk/editorial-im...

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

You can pointing while sitting down

Liberal Democrat councillor Adrian England showcases a more leisurely way to point at things. Sitting and pointing.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

As I recall, in this case an additional problem was that the TfL Streetscene site did not allow for the correct combination of reporting category and pin location on map.

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

... FoI ends up being used like this only because of other repeated earlier failings. It's much better to have that safety net than not.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 3d

... them to look into what went wrong.

But submitting an FoI request (!) finally got a proper response to one such incident: www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/requ...

Which neatly illustrates why Tony Blair is both right and wrong about FoI. Yes, this isn't what FoI was intended to tackle. But...

Request for details of actions taken re. FMS8131447 - a Freedom of Information request to Transport for London

Please provide me with copies of your records regarding the report of graffiti that was assigned reference number FMS8131447. This report was made by me on Sunday 7 October and you have responded say...

www.whatdotheyknow.com

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