Mark Zandi
@markzandi.bsky.social
Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics. Host of the Inside Economics podcast. Co-founder of Economy.com. Views expressed here are my own.
The K-shaped economy is becoming steadily more K-shaped. That’s the message in our updated estimate of personal outlays by income group.
January 18, 2026 at 4:39 PM
The K-shaped economy is becoming steadily more K-shaped. That’s the message in our updated estimate of personal outlays by income group.
President Trump says he is directing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to purchase $200 bil of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to bring down mortgage rates and address the severe housing affordability problem. Fixed mortgage rates have, in fact, declined by 10-20 bps to just over 6% on the news.
January 12, 2026 at 8:37 PM
President Trump says he is directing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to purchase $200 bil of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to bring down mortgage rates and address the severe housing affordability problem. Fixed mortgage rates have, in fact, declined by 10-20 bps to just over 6% on the news.
After cogitating a bit on the December jobs data, I’m increasingly convinced that the job market is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs.
January 11, 2026 at 6:28 PM
After cogitating a bit on the December jobs data, I’m increasingly convinced that the job market is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs.
Despite the considerable drama, the economy’s performance in 2025 is set to come in close to what we had forecast for the year when we did our projections at the end of 2024. That is, the economy did okay in 2025, although it fell well short of its 2024 performance.
January 4, 2026 at 5:28 PM
Despite the considerable drama, the economy’s performance in 2025 is set to come in close to what we had forecast for the year when we did our projections at the end of 2024. That is, the economy did okay in 2025, although it fell well short of its 2024 performance.
Reposted by Mark Zandi
@markzandi.bsky.social joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the state of the economy, focusing on consumer sentiment, Fed Independence, and likely trends in inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth in early 2026.
econofact.org/podcast/the-...
econofact.org/podcast/the-...
The Uncertain and Uneven Economy | Econofact Chats
Mark Zandi discusses the state of the economy, focusing on consumer sentiment, Fed Independence, and likely trends in inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth in early 2026.
econofact.org
December 17, 2025 at 11:48 PM
@markzandi.bsky.social joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the state of the economy, focusing on consumer sentiment, Fed Independence, and likely trends in inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth in early 2026.
econofact.org/podcast/the-...
econofact.org/podcast/the-...
Reposted by Mark Zandi
"The shape of the financial system has shifted from where it was in the Great Financial Crisis, from a bank-centric hub-and-spoke system with the banks in the middle and everyone else around the periphery to more of a web, with private credit more central in that web." - @markzandi.bsky.social
September 19, 2025 at 5:36 PM
"The shape of the financial system has shifted from where it was in the Great Financial Crisis, from a bank-centric hub-and-spoke system with the banks in the middle and everyone else around the periphery to more of a web, with private credit more central in that web." - @markzandi.bsky.social
Reposted by Mark Zandi
What have we learned from these first few months of talks?
@scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:
@scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:
Opinion | Trump’s tariff deadline: Six experts weigh in
Donald Trump’s deadline for countries to strike a trade deal with the U.S. or face hefty tariffs has arrived.
wapo.st
August 1, 2025 at 11:02 PM
What have we learned from these first few months of talks?
@scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:
@scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:
Reposted by Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi: “The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.” http://f-st.co/M6nFvD7
Housing market ‘red flare’: Moody’s chief economist sees home price declines spreading
Mark Zandi: 'The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.”
f-st.co
July 19, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Mark Zandi: “The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.” http://f-st.co/M6nFvD7
I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate. Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon. That, however, seems unlikely.
July 14, 2025 at 7:40 PM
I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate. Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon. That, however, seems unlikely.
Reposted by Mark Zandi
How do trade, spending cuts, and policy uncertainty affect growth? @markzandi.bsky.social of Moodys Analytics warns that while a recession isn't imminent, long-term U.S. growth could suffer.
Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...
Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...
Throttling Back: The Long and Short-run Economic Effects of Continued Uncertainty | Econofact Chats
A discussion with Mark Zandi on how continued uncertainty could affect the U.S. economy over the coming months, and over the longer term.
econofact.org
July 3, 2025 at 2:01 PM
How do trade, spending cuts, and policy uncertainty affect growth? @markzandi.bsky.social of Moodys Analytics warns that while a recession isn't imminent, long-term U.S. growth could suffer.
Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...
Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...
Another sign of a softer job market is rising unemployment insurance claims. Continuining claims are up, and signaling a slump in hiring. Initial claims are also up as of late. Anything north of their current near 250k per week would suggest layoffs are rising, and the job market is stalling.
June 12, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Another sign of a softer job market is rising unemployment insurance claims. Continuining claims are up, and signaling a slump in hiring. Initial claims are also up as of late. Anything north of their current near 250k per week would suggest layoffs are rising, and the job market is stalling.
The more I cogitate on the May jobs report, released last Friday by the BLS, the more uncomfortable I get about the economy’s prospects. There are a bunch of reasons why (listen to this week’s Inside Economics podcast), but high on the list is the sharp drop-off in labor force growth.
June 9, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The more I cogitate on the May jobs report, released last Friday by the BLS, the more uncomfortable I get about the economy’s prospects. There are a bunch of reasons why (listen to this week’s Inside Economics podcast), but high on the list is the sharp drop-off in labor force growth.
The job market is steadily but surely throttling back. Monthly job gains are moderating, and most telling, the gains are being consistently revised lower, and not by a little bit. Indeed, after revision, monthly job gains appear to be closing in on 100k.
June 6, 2025 at 1:49 PM
The job market is steadily but surely throttling back. Monthly job gains are moderating, and most telling, the gains are being consistently revised lower, and not by a little bit. Indeed, after revision, monthly job gains appear to be closing in on 100k.
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac’s fate is back under debate, 15 years after entering conservatorship. Their stock prices are up, but what’s next for the GSEs? Here’s a breakdown of the most likely scenarios over the next few years, their probabilities, and their impact on mortgage rates:
June 2, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac’s fate is back under debate, 15 years after entering conservatorship. Their stock prices are up, but what’s next for the GSEs? Here’s a breakdown of the most likely scenarios over the next few years, their probabilities, and their impact on mortgage rates:
I’m perplexed by the narrative that while the so-called soft economic data are in the dumper, the hard economic data are just fine. Really? No argument regarding the soft data. Consumer, business, and investor sentiment is about as dark as it gets, but the hard data have also taken on a shadowy hue.
May 11, 2025 at 4:41 PM
I’m perplexed by the narrative that while the so-called soft economic data are in the dumper, the hard economic data are just fine. Really? No argument regarding the soft data. Consumer, business, and investor sentiment is about as dark as it gets, but the hard data have also taken on a shadowy hue.
A high and rising number of American households are under mounting financial stress. That’s the message in the April delinquency rate data we calculate based on all the credit files in the country from the credit bureau Equifax.
May 9, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A high and rising number of American households are under mounting financial stress. That’s the message in the April delinquency rate data we calculate based on all the credit files in the country from the credit bureau Equifax.
After digging deep into the economic data released last week, from GDP to jobs, and all the releases in between, here’s why I’m even more concerned about the economy’s prospects:
May 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
After digging deep into the economic data released last week, from GDP to jobs, and all the releases in between, here’s why I’m even more concerned about the economy’s prospects:
The April jobs report shows the economy is not in recession, despite the Q1 decline in GDP. Employment increased 177,000 in the month, suggesting the job market remain a firewall between continued growth and a downturn.
May 2, 2025 at 1:49 PM
The April jobs report shows the economy is not in recession, despite the Q1 decline in GDP. Employment increased 177,000 in the month, suggesting the job market remain a firewall between continued growth and a downturn.
Reposted by Mark Zandi
OPINION TODAY featured podcast —
Chuck Todd is joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy.
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/162029400/...
Chuck Todd is joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy.
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/162029400/...
April 25, 2025 at 12:25 AM
OPINION TODAY featured podcast —
Chuck Todd is joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy.
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/162029400/...
Chuck Todd is joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy.
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/162029400/...
The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s exceptionalism. 🧵
April 21, 2025 at 6:49 PM
The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s exceptionalism. 🧵
Reposted by Mark Zandi
Another great discussion with @markzandi.bsky.social trying to explain what the Trump admin is trying to do with tariffs. It’s the most complete explanation I have heard though I disagree they are competent or honest actors in their plan.
#tariffs #econsky
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
#tariffs #econsky
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Channeling Trump
Podcast Episode · Moody's Talks - Inside Economics · 04/09/2025 · Bonus · 1h 16m
podcasts.apple.com
April 12, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Another great discussion with @markzandi.bsky.social trying to explain what the Trump admin is trying to do with tariffs. It’s the most complete explanation I have heard though I disagree they are competent or honest actors in their plan.
#tariffs #econsky
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
#tariffs #econsky
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
The U.S.’s global safe haven status is severely damaged by the U.S. tariffs and resulting global trade war. Global investors rightly question whether the U.S. is money good – the global economy’s Aaa credit. Thus, the spike in the long-term Treasury yields and the weaker U.S. dollar in recent days.
April 13, 2025 at 8:47 PM
The U.S.’s global safe haven status is severely damaged by the U.S. tariffs and resulting global trade war. Global investors rightly question whether the U.S. is money good – the global economy’s Aaa credit. Thus, the spike in the long-term Treasury yields and the weaker U.S. dollar in recent days.
Reposted by Mark Zandi
In the latest episode of The Delegates Lounge podcast, we're joined by Moody's Chief Economist @markzandi.bsky.social. Three guesses which classic movie reminds him of the present moment. Listen apple.co/4ejt5jE or wherever you get your podcasts.
April 2, 2025 at 5:16 PM
In the latest episode of The Delegates Lounge podcast, we're joined by Moody's Chief Economist @markzandi.bsky.social. Three guesses which classic movie reminds him of the present moment. Listen apple.co/4ejt5jE or wherever you get your podcasts.
Reposted by Mark Zandi
“The thing that worries me is that our economies are now quickly moving apart. They already have decoupled and they're disengaging. And it's becoming self-reinforcing.”
@markzandi.bsky.social on the #Tariffs impact on US-China relations.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
@markzandi.bsky.social on the #Tariffs impact on US-China relations.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
OTTD: Tariffs
Podcast Episode · The Middle with Jeremy Hobson · 03/10/2025 · 30m
podcasts.apple.com
April 9, 2025 at 8:20 PM
“The thing that worries me is that our economies are now quickly moving apart. They already have decoupled and they're disengaging. And it's becoming self-reinforcing.”
@markzandi.bsky.social on the #Tariffs impact on US-China relations.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
@markzandi.bsky.social on the #Tariffs impact on US-China relations.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%.
April 10, 2025 at 12:17 PM
It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%.