Mathew Barlow
@mathewabarlow.bsky.social
Climate scientist at UMass Lowell: droughts, floods, extreme events, & climate change. IPCC WG1 AR6 lead author. Skunk cabbage fan. he/him/his. Shocked but not awed.
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
Pinned
Climate Change Initiative
www.uml.edu
The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is the hub for all things climate at UMass Lowell:
www.uml.edu/research/cli...
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Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Brief note regarding potential major SSW in the forecast: the formal definition requires the *daily-mean* 10 hPa 60°N U wind to turn negative. A sub-daily reversal wouldn’t qualify as a major event using the most widely established criteria.
November 25, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Brief note regarding potential major SSW in the forecast: the formal definition requires the *daily-mean* 10 hPa 60°N U wind to turn negative. A sub-daily reversal wouldn’t qualify as a major event using the most widely established criteria.
Data gaps are certainly challenging - I think it is surprising the ENSO signal is as strong as it is in that region.
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Data gaps are certainly challenging - I think it is surprising the ENSO signal is as strong as it is in that region.
Indeed! Water management (or lack thereof) appears to be a big part of the urban impacts.
November 24, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Indeed! Water management (or lack thereof) appears to be a big part of the urban impacts.
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Irrational exuberance meets irresponsible accounting?
"It seems like a marvel of financial engineering: Meta is building a $27 billion data center in Louisiana, financed with debt, and neither the data center nor the debt will be on its own balance sheet."
AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center
Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Irrational exuberance meets irresponsible accounting?
Thanks! I agree about La Niña, probably a substantial factor this fall but likely less so in the recent multi-year run of drought. The Indian Ocean, West Pacific, & North Atlantic are also factors and it would take a bit of work to assess their individual contributions over the last few years.
November 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Thanks! I agree about La Niña, probably a substantial factor this fall but likely less so in the recent multi-year run of drought. The Indian Ocean, West Pacific, & North Atlantic are also factors and it would take a bit of work to assess their individual contributions over the last few years.
For a review of the multiple factors forcing drought in the region:
Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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November 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
For a review of the multiple factors forcing drought in the region:
Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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Barlow, M., B. Zaitchik, S. Paz, E. Black, J. Evans, and A. Hoell, 2016: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI....
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The ocean has a strong influence on precipitation in Southwest Asia. The historical patterns of warm and cold that suppress rain in Tehran are shown on the left. The current pattern is shown on the right, aligning closely for maximum forcing of drought.
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November 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The ocean has a strong influence on precipitation in Southwest Asia. The historical patterns of warm and cold that suppress rain in Tehran are shown on the left. The current pattern is shown on the right, aligning closely for maximum forcing of drought.
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Tehran is having an historic drought due to a combination of factors, including climate change.
The ocean is not helping.
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The ocean is not helping.
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November 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Tehran is having an historic drought due to a combination of factors, including climate change.
The ocean is not helping.
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The ocean is not helping.
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Reposted by Mathew Barlow
If you care about politics that works for non-billionaires, I highly encourage you to read this story about the 140-fold (>$1B in a year) increase in political donations from the wealthiest Americans.
wapo.st/4ipXaBd (gift link)
wapo.st/4ipXaBd (gift link)
November 22, 2025 at 4:20 PM
If you care about politics that works for non-billionaires, I highly encourage you to read this story about the 140-fold (>$1B in a year) increase in political donations from the wealthiest Americans.
wapo.st/4ipXaBd (gift link)
wapo.st/4ipXaBd (gift link)
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Very cool graphic alert... incredible work by
@jreiterwx.bsky.social.
Props to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for inspiring us to make this!
bsky.app/profile/cira...
@jreiterwx.bsky.social.
Props to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for inspiring us to make this!
bsky.app/profile/cira...
Every Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2020, all together, in one group photo.
H/t to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for the inspiration.
H/t to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for the inspiration.
November 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Very cool graphic alert... incredible work by
@jreiterwx.bsky.social.
Props to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for inspiring us to make this!
bsky.app/profile/cira...
@jreiterwx.bsky.social.
Props to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for inspiring us to make this!
bsky.app/profile/cira...
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
👩🌾 Grab your tools
November 20, 2025 at 4:03 PM
👩🌾 Grab your tools
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Take a look at this... Remarkable "warmth" last month across both polar regions when visualizing temperature departures by latitude. The x-axis is quite stretched out here compared to my usual monthly update of this graphic.
GISTEMPv4 using their 1951-1980 baseline (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
GISTEMPv4 using their 1951-1980 baseline (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
November 20, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Take a look at this... Remarkable "warmth" last month across both polar regions when visualizing temperature departures by latitude. The x-axis is quite stretched out here compared to my usual monthly update of this graphic.
GISTEMPv4 using their 1951-1980 baseline (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
GISTEMPv4 using their 1951-1980 baseline (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
What a difference a day makes!
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
November 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
What a difference a day makes!
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
The expert review of the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open from 17 Oct - 12 Dec 2025.
Experts who wish to participate in the review can register until midnight CET on November 30, 2025.
Find out more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
Experts who wish to participate in the review can register until midnight CET on November 30, 2025.
Find out more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
November 20, 2025 at 11:11 AM
The expert review of the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open from 17 Oct - 12 Dec 2025.
Experts who wish to participate in the review can register until midnight CET on November 30, 2025.
Find out more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
Experts who wish to participate in the review can register until midnight CET on November 30, 2025.
Find out more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
RFK Jr had committed to Bill Cassidy, as a condition to win his vote, that he would keep website language.
Cassidy in February: “If confirmed… CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism.”
Note the language in second photo.
Cassidy in February: “If confirmed… CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism.”
Note the language in second photo.
November 20, 2025 at 2:42 AM
RFK Jr had committed to Bill Cassidy, as a condition to win his vote, that he would keep website language.
Cassidy in February: “If confirmed… CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism.”
Note the language in second photo.
Cassidy in February: “If confirmed… CDC will not remove statements on their website pointing out that vaccines do not cause autism.”
Note the language in second photo.
Shifting more of my graphics work flow over to @blender.org - here's a first cut on the tropopause over North America. 🧪
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Shifting more of my graphics work flow over to @blender.org - here's a first cut on the tropopause over North America. 🧪
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
#30DayMapChallenge Day 19: Projections. A comparison of an ‘orthographic’ projection, which positions the viewer an infinite distance from the Earth and views a full hemisphere, and a ‘vertical perspective’ projection which simulates a view from a specified altitude—in this case geostationary orbit.
November 19, 2025 at 10:51 PM
#30DayMapChallenge Day 19: Projections. A comparison of an ‘orthographic’ projection, which positions the viewer an infinite distance from the Earth and views a full hemisphere, and a ‘vertical perspective’ projection which simulates a view from a specified altitude—in this case geostationary orbit.
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Hazzah! Today, my colleagues at @virginiaclimate.bsky.social released the first-ever Virginia Climate Assessment, a "comprehensive, science-based evaluation of how past, current, and anticipated climate conditions have and will impact Virginia and its people." Please join me in thanking them.
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The Virginia Climate Assessment — Virginia Climate Center
www.vaclimate.gmu.edu
November 19, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Hazzah! Today, my colleagues at @virginiaclimate.bsky.social released the first-ever Virginia Climate Assessment, a "comprehensive, science-based evaluation of how past, current, and anticipated climate conditions have and will impact Virginia and its people." Please join me in thanking them.
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Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Finally! 🤩 Our position piece: Against the Uncritical Adoption of 'AI' Technologies in Academia:
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
We unpick the tech industry’s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
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doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
We unpick the tech industry’s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
1/n
September 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Finally! 🤩 Our position piece: Against the Uncritical Adoption of 'AI' Technologies in Academia:
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
We unpick the tech industry’s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
1/n
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
We unpick the tech industry’s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
1/n
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Though the season doesn't officially end until November 30, here's a look at Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in 2025 from an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) perspective.
What stands out to me is the anomalously high August + October activity and the anomalously low September activity.
What stands out to me is the anomalously high August + October activity and the anomalously low September activity.
November 19, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Though the season doesn't officially end until November 30, here's a look at Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in 2025 from an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) perspective.
What stands out to me is the anomalously high August + October activity and the anomalously low September activity.
What stands out to me is the anomalously high August + October activity and the anomalously low September activity.
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
November 18, 2025 at 6:59 PM
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
📈🚨NEW: Extreme heat events are increasingly threatening to become mass mortality events. In @natclimate.nature.com today, we project tens of thousands of deaths in a single week across Europe if extreme heat domes coincide with rising global temperatures.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur - Nature Climate Change
The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. Th...
www.nature.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:06 PM
📈🚨NEW: Extreme heat events are increasingly threatening to become mass mortality events. In @natclimate.nature.com today, we project tens of thousands of deaths in a single week across Europe if extreme heat domes coincide with rising global temperatures.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Hey authors! Check to see if Anthropic stole your book to train their slop generator on. You’re entitled to $1500 per stolen Work.
Look up your work, and if you’re in the database, file a claim
secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup/
Look up your work, and if you’re in the database, file a claim
secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup/
Submit a Claim
secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Hey authors! Check to see if Anthropic stole your book to train their slop generator on. You’re entitled to $1500 per stolen Work.
Look up your work, and if you’re in the database, file a claim
secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup/
Look up your work, and if you’re in the database, file a claim
secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup/
Reposted by Mathew Barlow
Jamaica more or less out of the news entirely just a few weeks after Melissa hit. It shouldn't be.
"Hurricane Melissa changed the life of every Jamaican in less than 24 hours."
"Hurricane Melissa changed the life of every Jamaican in less than 24 hours."
‘This is survival’: Jamaica leads calls from vulnerable nations at Cop30
Countries including Mauritius and Cuba reiterate life-or-death nature of cutting emissions, calling it ‘a moral duty’
www.theguardian.com
November 17, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Jamaica more or less out of the news entirely just a few weeks after Melissa hit. It shouldn't be.
"Hurricane Melissa changed the life of every Jamaican in less than 24 hours."
"Hurricane Melissa changed the life of every Jamaican in less than 24 hours."