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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16d

No caso da minha mulher também estamos à espera há cerca de 2 anos, mas os advogados avisaram-nos logo que não seriam menos de 4-5 anos para ela

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16d

Obrigado Pedro! No nosso caso nem é muito crítico pois felizmente as miúdas são americanas. Há pessoal que tem bebés apátridas por causa dos atrasos. De qualquer das formas, insólito que as minhas filhas portuguesas já tenham dois vistos de entrada em Portugal no seu passaporte

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Pedro Guerreiro @pedroguerreiro.bsky.social · 17d

Lamento muito que a família do @mfariacastro.bsky.social também esteja a passar por isto. É vergonhoso que Portugal demore mais de 1 ano a reconhecer a cidadania de filhos bebés de portugueses nascidos no estrangeiro

expresso.pt/sociedade/20...

Atrasos do IRN deixam bebés de emigrantes sem pátria

Emigrantes aguardam mais de um ano para registar os filhos como portugueses. Durante a espera, não têm país nem documentos

expresso.pt

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jul 17

US retirement normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic via St. Louis Fed
www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

U.S. Retirement Normalization following the COVID-19 Pandemic

After surging when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S., retirements have returned to their prepandemic trend. New research examines what caused this surge.

www.stlouisfed.org

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

Link to the paper: s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouis...

s3.amazonaws.com

Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

Once again, our method can be applied to *any* credit registry dataset that reports basic information on the characteristics of credit facilities. Such credit registries are extremely common in Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia. 11/11

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

We conclude by applying a back-of-the-envelope version of our method to summary stats reported in other papers in the literature that study capital allocation efficiency using data on credit. Doing it properly requires micro data, but we show our results are not crazy 10/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

This means that loans were "underpriced" during this period, i.e. contractual rates were too low given observable loan characteristics. We speculate that this could have been caused by credit market interventions, perception of implicit guarantees, and/or zombie lending 9/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

In particular, we show that the distribution of these lender discount rates becomes negatively skewed during 2020-21. This is not what we would expect from an "increasing risk premia" story, which would generate positive skew. These rates become too *low* during this period 8/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

We argue that this spike was driven by an increase in the coefficient of variation of "lender discount rates". These are the residuals of loan asset pricing: fluctuations in contractual rates that do not reflect changes in the observable terms of loans, such as maturity or PD 7/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

We find that, unexpectedly, capital misallocation is generally low in the US throughout our sample. Losses are around 0.5% of GDP. There is a large spike in 2020-21 (average of 1.1%) and then a return to normal levels 6/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

Knowledge of the social planner's marginal value of capital (r^social) allows us to estimate the extent of "static" capital misallocation using a sufficient statistics approach that relies on the first and second moments of r^social 5/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

Our method requires knowledge of i) type of loan, ii) interest rate, iii) maturity, iv) probability of default, v) loss given default. The outputs are measures of a) lender's discount rate, b) firm's internal cost of capital, c) social planner's marginal value of capital 4/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

Using a standard dynamic corporate finance model, we show how to map basic credit registry data objects into economic variables that are informative about the expected marginal revenue product of capital for firms, a key input for most measures of capital misallocation 3/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

We do two things:
1. develop a method to measure capital misallocation that can be applied to any credit registry data, using a dynamic corporate finance model as a measurement device
2. apply this method to US data, the Federal Reserve's FR Y-14Q (stress testing data) 2/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Jun 16

New WP: "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States", with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz 1/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Apr 8

Ontem, na Antena 1, sobre o impacto das tarifas:
www.rtp.pt/play/p1467/e...

Programa da Tarde

Bolsas: terceiro dia consecutivo em queda - 'Não se estava a contar que a política norte-americana fosse tão agressiva e generalizada a todos os pa

www.rtp.pt

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Apr 7

When a stock's prices moves a lot, the NYSE halts trading in that stock for 30 minutes. On Monday March 17 (just tried an arbitrary Monday), there were 30 such circuit breakers triggered.

Today, so far, 229! Feel liberated!

www.nyse.com/trade-halt

Trading Halt DataNYSE LogoNYSE LogoNYSE Logo

www.nyse.com

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Apr 5

Acho que ainda vou a tempo de me retratar de muito do que disse aqui ha quase exactamente 2 meses. Na altura supus que a aplicacao das tarifas seria muito mais "cirurgica": contida e racional. Penso que muitos outros supuseram o mesmo, a julgar pelas reaccao dos mercados.

Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Feb 4

Na Radio Observador a explicar as novas tarifas
observador.pt/programas/a-...

Como a guerra das tarifas nos poderá afetar?

Donald Trump promete e já está a usar tarifas para travar importações. A política protecionista vai ter consequências? Miguel Faria e Castro é professor e economista na FED no Banco de Saint Louis.

observador.pt

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Apr 5

Markets stopped falling today 🙏

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Apr 4

CDS não sei, mas não há comparação possível ao PSD

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Apr 4

Ao falar com malta portuguesa sobre política americana, choca-me que ainda haja quem veja os republicanos como uma coisa ali entre o PSD e o CDS quando faz já *uma década* (desde 2016) que são um Chega com laivos de PNR

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · Mar 29

This is the dumbest thing I read this week and trust me I read a lot of dumb things this week

nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Tina Smith @smith.senate.gov · Mar 24

Circling back on this…

Post from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that reads: Any unauthorized release of classified information is a violation of the law and will be treated as such.

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