Michael Santoli
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
CNBC talking head. Markets, mostly. Maybe some baseball and movies.
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
The ascendant 'non-OpenAI AI' complex led by Broadcom and Alphabet, as well as sharp bounces in Meta and Palantir, helped drive the gain.
cnb.cx
November 24, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
Market setup for the week. Indexes tentatively bouncing off support after disgorging two months of gains, purging some froth, resetting sentiment.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Turbulent November market puts the onus back on the bulls to show resilience
Is the market in the process of building a better, more-balanced bull while humbling the hubristic momentum traders?
www.cnbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Market setup for the week. Indexes tentatively bouncing off support after disgorging two months of gains, purging some froth, resetting sentiment.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
November 21, 2025 at 6:37 PM
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
The market trying to rotate away from the immediate blast radius of speculative junk, peripheral AI food-chain plays and crypto, with cyclical groups catching a bid after dipping into the red on a one-year basis.
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
November 21, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The market trying to rotate away from the immediate blast radius of speculative junk, peripheral AI food-chain plays and crypto, with cyclical groups catching a bid after dipping into the red on a one-year basis.
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Stock indexes at their lows for the day.
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
November 20, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Stock indexes at their lows for the day.
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
A peppy, broad bounce at the open. 85% upside volume. Nvidia restores confidence in the AI-infrastructure food chain for now, though shares only back to a 10-day high.
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
November 20, 2025 at 2:57 PM
A peppy, broad bounce at the open. 85% upside volume. Nvidia restores confidence in the AI-infrastructure food chain for now, though shares only back to a 10-day high.
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
We're well beyond the "everybody wins" phase of rewarding all AI spenders and vendors alike.
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
November 19, 2025 at 4:33 PM
We're well beyond the "everybody wins" phase of rewarding all AI spenders and vendors alike.
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Handicapping the reaction to Nvidia results across the market is both inevitable and futile.
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
November 19, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Handicapping the reaction to Nvidia results across the market is both inevitable and futile.
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
When stocks go down in price they go back in time. Nasdaq 100 returning to Sept. 18 levels, right after the Fed resumed rate cuts. Starting to become a proper reset.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
November 18, 2025 at 3:04 PM
When stocks go down in price they go back in time. Nasdaq 100 returning to Sept. 18 levels, right after the Fed resumed rate cuts. Starting to become a proper reset.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Not to downplay the less-generous welcome today's new grads are getting from employers. But I'm adding a second chart as "When I was your age" ammo for fellow GenXers who have a kid graduating college in '26.
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
November 17, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Not to downplay the less-generous welcome today's new grads are getting from employers. But I'm adding a second chart as "When I was your age" ammo for fellow GenXers who have a kid graduating college in '26.
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
Reposted by Michael Santoli
The bull market probably didn’t die last week.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
All three of the core premises behind the bull market are coming under questioning
Mike Santoli breaks down the recent turbulence seen in the market and whether it is a sign of a bigger washout to come.
www.cnbc.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The bull market probably didn’t die last week.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
The bull market probably didn’t die last week.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
All three of the core premises behind the bull market are coming under questioning
Mike Santoli breaks down the recent turbulence seen in the market and whether it is a sign of a bigger washout to come.
www.cnbc.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The bull market probably didn’t die last week.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
But the recent ructions offer a glimpse of its eventual demise - symptoms of underlying imbalances emerging, pre-chronic conditions threatining to go acute.
Still just a routine-looking choppy phase in an uptrend?
New column, free with email signup.
Given the season, maybe not surprising to see some selling pressure pick up this week to raise shopping money. One of these will now cost you five shares of IBIT...
November 14, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Given the season, maybe not surprising to see some selling pressure pick up this week to raise shopping money. One of these will now cost you five shares of IBIT...
Tech stocks trying to hold this crazy-steep outperformance trend line relative to the S&P 500....
November 14, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Tech stocks trying to hold this crazy-steep outperformance trend line relative to the S&P 500....
The "rebasement" trade...
November 14, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The "rebasement" trade...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, rooted in the 19th-century manufacturing economy and using 1890s tabulation methods, has overtaken the Nasdaq 100 this quarter thanks largely to the Dow's 10%+ weight in Goldman Sachs, which refuses to split its stock and accounts for half of today's 300-point gain.
November 12, 2025 at 4:15 PM
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, rooted in the 19th-century manufacturing economy and using 1890s tabulation methods, has overtaken the Nasdaq 100 this quarter thanks largely to the Dow's 10%+ weight in Goldman Sachs, which refuses to split its stock and accounts for half of today's 300-point gain.
"Michael Burry looks sideways at GPU accounting" and "Masa Son sells Softbank's Nvidia stake" are legitimate coin tosses as Buy/Sell signals, meaning no signal at all.
Softbank sold 32m NVDA shares worth $5.8B, you say?
The stock trades 180m shares a day and yesterday added $264B in value.
Softbank sold 32m NVDA shares worth $5.8B, you say?
The stock trades 180m shares a day and yesterday added $264B in value.
November 11, 2025 at 2:27 PM
"Michael Burry looks sideways at GPU accounting" and "Masa Son sells Softbank's Nvidia stake" are legitimate coin tosses as Buy/Sell signals, meaning no signal at all.
Softbank sold 32m NVDA shares worth $5.8B, you say?
The stock trades 180m shares a day and yesterday added $264B in value.
Softbank sold 32m NVDA shares worth $5.8B, you say?
The stock trades 180m shares a day and yesterday added $264B in value.
My (almost) daily market observations at the close for CNBC Pro...
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Relief over expected reopening of the government expressed oddly
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Relief over expected reopening of the government expressed oddly
The leadership in the rebound from last week's downside chop was a mix of the usual mega-cap leaders, AI food-chain, momentum- and the usual "story" stocks.
cnb.cx
November 10, 2025 at 9:28 PM
My (almost) daily market observations at the close for CNBC Pro...
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com
November 1, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
Everyone knows the deal: Good years for stocks tend to end strong. The market's pricey but this tends not to bite when profits are rising and the Fed cutting rates.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Lock in the gain? S&P 500 enters final two months of the year up 16%
After one of the best seven-month rallies in memory, how does the risk-reward tradeoff look?
www.cnbc.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Everyone knows the deal: Good years for stocks tend to end strong. The market's pricey but this tends not to bite when profits are rising and the Fed cutting rates.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com
November 1, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
As a rewarding year for markets pivots from the season of feigned fright to a month of thanksgiving, a look at the risk-reward setup from here.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
Lock in the gain? S&P 500 enters final two months of the year up 16%
After one of the best seven-month rallies in memory, how does the risk-reward tradeoff look?
www.cnbc.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:57 PM
As a rewarding year for markets pivots from the season of feigned fright to a month of thanksgiving, a look at the risk-reward setup from here.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
Even the companies can't know or say for sure how many of the layoffs are due to AI.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
From Amazon to Target, the country’s largest employers are retrenching, laying off tens of thousands of office workers.
Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite
Companies ranging from Amazon to Target are sending workers into an unwelcoming market.
on.wsj.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Even the companies can't know or say for sure how many of the layoffs are due to AI.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
October 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.
October 28, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.