Monica Marks
@monicamarks.bsky.social
9.8K followers 680 following 2.4K posts
Prof of Middle East Politics at NYU Abu Dhabi. Tunisia, Turkey, Gulf. PhD St Antony's College, Oxford. Rhodes, Fulbright, Harvard WCFIA. 14 years writing on Tunisia. Religion & democracy. Tango & bizarre travel enthusiast. Perpetually craving Istanbul.
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monicamarks.bsky.social
For TIME Magazine, I wrote about the shaky future of the Abraham Accords after Israel bombed Qatar. The attack crossed a Rubicon, shocking leaders across the GCC.

It’s a long piece (by TIME standards!) based on 5+ years of watching the Accords in rich detail from the UAE.

time.com/7318734/futu...
Reposted by Monica Marks
katz.theracket.news
Even a pause in the killing and displacement would be good and I share the cautious optimism that this could end this phase of the catastrophe. But it is wild that people are treating this as if it’s the negotiated end of the Russo-Japanese War, or even Camp David 1978.
Reposted by Monica Marks
joelhs.bsky.social
This is a person who is still taken seriously and published in left-wing spaces.

To be clear: No, most Israeli Jews are not descended from Polish Jews. And even for the minority who are, it would obviously not be safe for them all to go there now, given the Polish government.
Tweet from Axel Folio, PhD: "To Poland where they are from"
monicamarks.bsky.social
You really can’t make this stuff up
monicamarks.bsky.social
Correct. And humans are on the committee, like all committees. There are better reasons why he won’t get it tomorrow that I mentioned!
monicamarks.bsky.social
I get why some are saying this.

But delaying the Nobel Peace Prize to manipulate one famously egotistical president into doing the right thing for the wrong reasons would set a crazy precedent & make the Nobel look unserious.

Trump can implement the full deal & wait a year.
monicamarks.bsky.social
And it could embolden Trump to continue thwarting peacemaking in numerous other ways (eg: his war on multilateral institutions, like the UN & ICC/ICJ; his erosion of democratic institutions that can preserve peaceful pluralism in the US where political violence is rising, etc.).
monicamarks.bsky.social
Trump must, at least, ensure that this deal sticks to be considered seriously for next year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

Rewarding him now would be premature. It would remove the incentive to make the deal stick—let alone to secure a true peace that ends the occupation & secures a 2SS.
monicamarks.bsky.social
No fiercely independent committee likes a bully.

Some members of the Nobel committee might also feel that US deserves no special award for halting what UN experts recently concluded is a genocide, when it’s been Israel’s key enabler. Trump presided over 8 months of this horror.
monicamarks.bsky.social
But the Nobel Committee will want to wait & see if Trump has the focus & fortitude to implement all phases of this agreement.

That will be much harder. If Trump does—and especially if he pushes Israel to end the occupation & realise a 2SS—he could win the Nobel in coming years.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The committee will be glad, as all peace-minded people are, for Phase 1 of this ceasefire deal.

Trump deserves plaudits for that & it’s more than Biden ever did during this. Obama had no reason to win the Nobel, but hadn’t done Trump’s damage to democracy & peace institutions.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The Nobel committee also knows that President Trump is autocratising the US by assaulting checks & balances, that he’s launched extralegal ops against Venezuelan entities, that his war on illegal migrants is cruel, & that he’s harshly violated pro-🇵🇸 activists’ speech in the US.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The Nobel committee is not ignorant of the fact that Trump has waged an unprecedented full-front assault on multilateral institutions vital to peace-making now & in the future.

These include the UN, the ICJ & the ICC.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The deal Trump made possible between Israel & Hamas will only be realised in its first phase now.

All subsequent phases were left deliberately vague to make Phase 1 possible. Disarming Hamas & getting Israel to withdraw from Gaza are 2 of the thorniest parts of coming phases.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The Nobel committee stopped receiving nominations for the prize in January.

Strong contenders for this year’s award include civil society groups in Sudan, Russian pro-democracy dissident Alexei Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnaya, the Committee to Protect Journalists, UNICEF, etc.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced tomorrow from Oslo at 10am GMT. Trump, despite ostentatiously gunning for it & even trying to pressure the fiercely independent committee, will not receive it.

A few thoughts on why & what this says about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 “peace” deal:

🧵
Reposted by Monica Marks
monicamarks.bsky.social
“Finally, we will be able to close this dark chapter & move on to the next chapter of Israeli-Palestinian peace.”

Exactly the right attitude. Celebrate this reprieve & the lives it will save. But make this *a first step toward actual peace,* which requires ending the occupation.

1/
monicamarks.bsky.social
Yes- but just Phase 1. Still, a huge breakthrough & the best in 2 years. Now we’ll see about the other phases. Those will be more difficult & chance for slippage is high. And of course the core problems that led to all this remain & are exacerbated now
monicamarks.bsky.social
Aid will finally surge into Gaza. The needs are massive.

Over 90% of Gaza’s housing has been destroyed by Israeli bombardment. That’s made 1.9 million homeless. They’re sleeping in hallways & garages of still-standing buildings. And they’re paying to “rent” tiny sand plots where they put up tents.
monicamarks.bsky.social
1000%. If Trump actually solved the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict & ended the occupation, he’d completely deserve the Nobel.

This deal is far from a permanent solution for peace. Its latter phases may never be realised. But ending this butchery was a must for any other horizon to be possible.
monicamarks.bsky.social
The chance of this deal dying on the vine in its later phases, so the core issues that led to this hell aren’t resolved, is high.

For a war like this to never happen again, Palestinians must have a genuine horizon of hope. As long as the occupation lasts, true peace cannot have been achieved.

2/
monicamarks.bsky.social
“Finally, we will be able to close this dark chapter & move on to the next chapter of Israeli-Palestinian peace.”

Exactly the right attitude. Celebrate this reprieve & the lives it will save. But make this *a first step toward actual peace,* which requires ending the occupation.

1/
monicamarks.bsky.social
Historic photo. Truly incredible image when you consider that, exactly one month ago to the day, Israel provoked unprecedented ire in the GCC by bombing Hamas in Qatar.

Now, Qatar's Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Thani, is shaking hands w/ IDF Major General Nitzan Alon.
Reposted by Monica Marks
abuaardvark.bsky.social
I’ll fucking sign Trumps Nobel Peace Prize myself if it ends the genocide, starts aid, prevents Israeli annexation and stops the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. We are a long way from that. Still better than Biden’s crew of super-geniuses managed.

abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/gazas-tomorr...
Gaza's Tomorrow is Yesterday
Plus the latest from the MENA Academy Last week, the Trump White House announced a somewhat odd 20 point peace plan for Gaza; the language was so casual and the key points so vague that I at first as...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io
Reposted by Monica Marks
rimaanabtawi.bsky.social
Ya’Kub Ira is a Filipino American artist, educator, and photojournalist. He is a well known Eskrima Filipino martial art expert and is known for his work and activism in Baybayin script scholarship and revival.
stevanzetti.bsky.social
The Dallas area Palestinian Youth Movement reported yesterday that Ya'Kub Ira, an activist and martial arts instructor, was abducted by ICE despite Ira's legal status under DACA.

"This is the second unexpected arrest of someone with proximity to the Palestine movement in the past two weeks."