Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Mott Smith

dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 20d

This is a dialogue re Measure ULA with Joan Ling, former executive director for Community Corporation of Santa Monica (a nonprofit housing developer) and a staff attorney for Public Counsel.

www.planningreport.com/2025/09/18/r...

Real Property Transfer Tax and Measure ULA: Sorting Fact from Fiction | The Planning Report

The Planning Report is the insider's guide to urban planning and infrastructure in Southern California

www.planningreport.com

1 1 8

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

2) This is a more fair point. Still, Taxing Tomorrow includes a supplemental analysis showing total entitled units fell dramatically after ULA. Again, entitlements aren't as good an indicator as permits, but falling entitlements does suggest fewer permitted units.

1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

1) If you include ED1, you credit ULA for the ED1 boost & make ULA’s harms look smaller. Ward & Phillips flagged this, explained why the bias is ambiguous, and excluded ED1 to avoid mixing policy shocks. A good-faith rebuttal would have engaged that choice, not pretended they didn’t address it.

1 1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Super interesting. What's the source for that?

1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

In the last week of session, I am always prepared to be surprised. That way I'm never disappointed. :)

1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Before you say you agree with the critiques, please read our detailed response to them: www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/the...

The Consequences of Measure ULA: Some Clarifications

This report responds to criticisms of two earlier UCLA Lewis Center reports. We show that these criticisms are misguided and also examine a claim that Measure ULA created 10,000 union construction job...

www.lewis.ucla.edu

1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Asm. Buffy Wicks has been leading on this. 80% of the taxes that would be killed by the Howard Jarvis initiative are in Northern California, her home. She is trying to thread the needle between preserving revenues, restoring incentives to build and unlocking funds for new aff hsg.

1 3

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Very much so.

1 5

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

My pleasure. I'm up for more procrastination excuses, so don't hesitate to lob more questions or thoughts. :)

2

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Again, my fingers are crossed that some efforts in Sacramento will fix this problem and all the ULA programs will be available for leverage.

2

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

The upcoming Notice of Funding Availability (housing.lacity.gov/ula/homes-fo...) was designed accordingly. Two of its big subcategories--"Alternative Models: Preservation" and "Alternative Models: New Construction"--allow for 80-100% ULA financing for exactly this reason.

Homes for LA NOFA – LAHD

housing.lacity.gov

2 1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

No problem! Ask away. (It's helping me procrastinate about some other stuff I should be doing, so I appreciate it.)

The average 10% TDC you're referring to is for projects that have gotten ULA *awards.* Only a couple have actually closed their financing. Most will have a hard time doing so.

1 1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

You can say that again. :)

There is a ray of hope -- local and state leaders are working on fixes to unlock the money for its intended use and, hopefully, provide relief for new construction. If that happens, we'll be able to protect ULA as a revenue source, and it will do what voters wanted.

2 2

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Sadly, no. Measure ULA was supposed to be be a "soft money" gap source. But because its authors flubbed the design--and made it unchangeable without state legislation or another initiative--for the most part, ULA money will have to ~100% of the financing in anything it touches.

1 1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

1. Unlike most "soft money," ULA requires its affordability covenants to be senior to the 1st mortgage. This isn't unheard of, but it's unusual.
2. ULA projects can only be sold to nonprofits (a big problem for banks)
3. The AMIs are strict and can't "float up" in the event of foreclosure

1 1

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

In the meantime, let's keep the good faith, evidence-based conversation going. To that end, check out our detailed response to the advocate/authors' critiques in this recently published paper.

www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/the...

/end

The Consequences of Measure ULA: Some Clarifications

This report responds to criticisms of two earlier UCLA Lewis Center reports. We show that these criticisms are misguided and also examine a claim that Measure ULA created 10,000 union construction job...

www.lewis.ucla.edu

6

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

If ULA’s supporters won’t acknowledge its flaws and work toward solutions, they may hand HJTA the very case it wants to make.

1 7

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Because this isn’t happening in a vacuum. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association is already advancing “TPA 2.0,” a measure that would wipe out most local transfer taxes in the state, among other revenue sources.

2 5

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

That doesn’t mean ULA is doomed. The flaws are fixable. But when defenders deny the problems and resist reform, they don’t protect ULA--they put 42 local taxes in California at risk.

2 6

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

The uncomfortable truth is that ULA is raising less money than promised, hobbling the real estate market, slowing property tax growth, and producing almost no affordable housing.

1 4 15

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

When you see someone respond with ad hominem attacks, recycled talking points, and double standards, it suggests the evidence isn’t on their side.

1 6

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

It’s also notable that these same advocate/authors dismiss Ward & Phillips’ paper -- which is based on two years of post-ULA data -- as “premature.” Yet they were fine declaring ULA “already a success” a year earlier, before it had funded a single unit. A clear double standard.

1 6

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

With few exceptions, the new Oxy paper doesn’t raise serious questions about Ward & Phillips’ research. Instead, it leans on insinuations -- like that UCLA’s work is suspect because the Lewis family funds the Center. But the same authors were happy to publish there in 2022.

1 4

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

Same here: when advocate/authors make wild, clearly false claims like “10,000 jobs,” it’s a signal. If we can’t trust them on straightforward things like jobs or housing results, how can we trust their subtle critiques of research design? It should give one pause.

1 7

Mott Smith @mottsmith.bsky.social · Sep 8

All of this is context for how seriously one should take the advocate/authors’ supposed critiques of Ward & Phillips. Think of Van Halen’s “brown M&Ms” rule: if promoters didn't pay attention to the band's candy preferences, how could they be trusted with dangerous pyrotechnics?

1 7