NFL Scenarios
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NFL tiebreaking expert.
Author of https://NFLPlayoffScenarios.com
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Author of https://NFLPlayoffScenarios.com
Keep the site ad-free by supporting the Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/cw/TiebreakerExperts
All professional looking images are by @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
2025 Week 18 AFC Seeding Scenarios. All 64 combinations (assumes no ties):
December 30, 2025 at 1:20 AM
2025 Week 18 AFC Seeding Scenarios. All 64 combinations (assumes no ties):
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
2025 Week 18 NFC Seeding Scenarios:
December 30, 2025 at 4:15 AM
2025 Week 18 NFC Seeding Scenarios:
With the ATL win, NYJ has been eliminated from 1st overall draft pick contention. We're down to just NYG & LV.
December 30, 2025 at 4:14 AM
With the ATL win, NYJ has been eliminated from 1st overall draft pick contention. We're down to just NYG & LV.
Not quite. If ATL holds on tonight, then SF loss + LAR win next week would still put LAR at the 5 seed on Common Games (9-3 vs 8-4)
If Atlanta holds on, would LAR be locked into the 6 seed?
December 30, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Not quite. If ATL holds on tonight, then SF loss + LAR win next week would still put LAR at the 5 seed on Common Games (9-3 vs 8-4)
What to watch for in LAR/ATL:
1) If ATL loses/ties, CAR/TB on Saturday will solely determine the NFC South Champion.
2) If ATL wins/ties, NYJ loses the ability to get the 1st overall draft pick.
1) If ATL loses/ties, CAR/TB on Saturday will solely determine the NFC South Champion.
2) If ATL wins/ties, NYJ loses the ability to get the 1st overall draft pick.
December 30, 2025 at 1:03 AM
What to watch for in LAR/ATL:
1) If ATL loses/ties, CAR/TB on Saturday will solely determine the NFC South Champion.
2) If ATL wins/ties, NYJ loses the ability to get the 1st overall draft pick.
1) If ATL loses/ties, CAR/TB on Saturday will solely determine the NFC South Champion.
2) If ATL wins/ties, NYJ loses the ability to get the 1st overall draft pick.
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
If Atlanta loses or ties on MNF, it would be the first time there are TWO winner-take-all games entering the final week of the season since 2013 when PHI/DAL played for the NFC East title; and GB/CHI for the NFC North crown.
December 28, 2025 at 10:13 PM
If Atlanta loses or ties on MNF, it would be the first time there are TWO winner-take-all games entering the final week of the season since 2013 when PHI/DAL played for the NFC East title; and GB/CHI for the NFC North crown.
We have the week 18 playoff picture up with contingencies for LAR/ATL tonight! Includes seeding-specific scenarios as well as 1st overall draft pick scenarios. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
2025 Week 18 Playoff Picture (Prior to week 17 MNF)
Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!
nflplayoffscenarios.com
December 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
We have the week 18 playoff picture up with contingencies for LAR/ATL tonight! Includes seeding-specific scenarios as well as 1st overall draft pick scenarios. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...
With the SF win, the NFC West title and NFC 1 seed will be determined by the SF/SEA game in week 18.
December 29, 2025 at 4:36 AM
With the SF win, the NFC West title and NFC 1 seed will be determined by the SF/SEA game in week 18.
With the CHI loss, CHI has been knocked out of 1 seed contention.
December 29, 2025 at 4:35 AM
With the CHI loss, CHI has been knocked out of 1 seed contention.
With the SF win, LAR has been eliminated from NFC West title contention.
December 29, 2025 at 4:35 AM
With the SF win, LAR has been eliminated from NFC West title contention.
What to watch for in CHI/SF:
1) The loser will be knocked out of 1 seed contention, the winner stays alive into week 18
2) If we have a tie, both teams are knocked out and SEA has a chance to clinch the 1 seed tomorrow.
3) LAR is knocked out of division race with SF win
1) The loser will be knocked out of 1 seed contention, the winner stays alive into week 18
2) If we have a tie, both teams are knocked out and SEA has a chance to clinch the 1 seed tomorrow.
3) LAR is knocked out of division race with SF win
December 29, 2025 at 1:24 AM
What to watch for in CHI/SF:
1) The loser will be knocked out of 1 seed contention, the winner stays alive into week 18
2) If we have a tie, both teams are knocked out and SEA has a chance to clinch the 1 seed tomorrow.
3) LAR is knocked out of division race with SF win
1) The loser will be knocked out of 1 seed contention, the winner stays alive into week 18
2) If we have a tie, both teams are knocked out and SEA has a chance to clinch the 1 seed tomorrow.
3) LAR is knocked out of division race with SF win
With the BUF loss, NE has clinched the AFC East Division Title.
December 29, 2025 at 12:33 AM
With the BUF loss, NE has clinched the AFC East Division Title.
With the NYG win, the 1st overall pick cannot be clinched in week 17.
December 28, 2025 at 11:54 PM
With the NYG win, the 1st overall pick cannot be clinched in week 17.
What to watch for in the late slate
1) NE clinches the AFC East division title with BUF loss/tie
2) PHI is locked into the 3 seed with a loss
3) NYG clinches the 1st overall pick with a loss
1) NE clinches the AFC East division title with BUF loss/tie
2) PHI is locked into the 3 seed with a loss
3) NYG clinches the 1st overall pick with a loss
December 28, 2025 at 9:15 PM
What to watch for in the late slate
1) NE clinches the AFC East division title with BUF loss/tie
2) PHI is locked into the 3 seed with a loss
3) NYG clinches the 1st overall pick with a loss
1) NE clinches the AFC East division title with BUF loss/tie
2) PHI is locked into the 3 seed with a loss
3) NYG clinches the 1st overall pick with a loss
With the JAX win, JAX cannot be knocked out of 1 seed contention in week 17.
December 28, 2025 at 9:08 PM
With the JAX win, JAX cannot be knocked out of 1 seed contention in week 17.
With the CAR loss, CAR cannot clinch the NFC South title (or a playoff berth) in week 17. CAR/TB will go into week 18 with a chance for the 4 seed. We will not know until after Monday Night if it will be a winner-take-all when it is played (if ATL wins out, TB will be eliminated)
December 28, 2025 at 8:59 PM
With the CAR loss, CAR cannot clinch the NFC South title (or a playoff berth) in week 17. CAR/TB will go into week 18 with a chance for the 4 seed. We will not know until after Monday Night if it will be a winner-take-all when it is played (if ATL wins out, TB will be eliminated)
With the NE win, NE cannot be knocked out of 1 seed contention in week 17 (which also means DEN cannot clinch the 1 seed in week 17)
December 28, 2025 at 8:57 PM
With the NE win, NE cannot be knocked out of 1 seed contention in week 17 (which also means DEN cannot clinch the 1 seed in week 17)
With the PIT loss, PIT cannot clinch the division title or a playoff berth this week. PIT/BAL in week 18 will determine the 4 seed.
December 28, 2025 at 8:55 PM
With the PIT loss, PIT cannot clinch the division title or a playoff berth this week. PIT/BAL in week 18 will determine the 4 seed.
Scott Hanson just said if TB & CAR both lose then TB/CAR will be for the division. This isn't quite accurate. If TB & CAR both lose, TB beats CAR next week and ATL wins out, CAR will still win the division by winning the 3-way ATL/TB/CAR tie on head-to-head.
December 28, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Scott Hanson just said if TB & CAR both lose then TB/CAR will be for the division. This isn't quite accurate. If TB & CAR both lose, TB beats CAR next week and ATL wins out, CAR will still win the division by winning the 3-way ATL/TB/CAR tie on head-to-head.
What to watch for in the early slate (excluding ties)
1) CAR clinches the NFC South title with a win + TB loss
2) TB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss + CAR win
3) PIT clinches the AFC North title with a win
4) BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with PIT win
1) CAR clinches the NFC South title with a win + TB loss
2) TB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss + CAR win
3) PIT clinches the AFC North title with a win
4) BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with PIT win
December 28, 2025 at 5:52 PM
What to watch for in the early slate (excluding ties)
1) CAR clinches the NFC South title with a win + TB loss
2) TB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss + CAR win
3) PIT clinches the AFC North title with a win
4) BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with PIT win
1) CAR clinches the NFC South title with a win + TB loss
2) TB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss + CAR win
3) PIT clinches the AFC North title with a win
4) BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with PIT win
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
Remaining NFC West scenarios:
December 28, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Remaining NFC West scenarios:
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
If PIT, HOU, GB, and CAR all clinch this week, it would mark the first time the entire playoff field is set prior to the final week of the season since 1974.
h/t (@JoeNFL on X)
h/t (@JoeNFL on X)
December 23, 2025 at 11:06 PM
If PIT, HOU, GB, and CAR all clinch this week, it would mark the first time the entire playoff field is set prior to the final week of the season since 1974.
h/t (@JoeNFL on X)
h/t (@JoeNFL on X)
Reposted by NFL Scenarios
At least one team has been locked into a specific seed with one week to play each season since 2004 (22nd straight year). Green Bay is the first team locked into the 7 seed with one week left since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020.
With the GB loss, GB is locked into the NFC 7 seed. They are the first team this season to be locked into a specific seed.
December 28, 2025 at 4:23 AM
At least one team has been locked into a specific seed with one week to play each season since 2004 (22nd straight year). Green Bay is the first team locked into the 7 seed with one week left since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020.
With the GB loss, GB is locked into the NFC 7 seed. They are the first team this season to be locked into a specific seed.
December 28, 2025 at 4:03 AM
With the GB loss, GB is locked into the NFC 7 seed. They are the first team this season to be locked into a specific seed.