Nick Korte
@nickkorte.bsky.social
Content is focused on:
•NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos
•Over The Cap contributor
•Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™
https://thinair.football
•NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos
•Over The Cap contributor
•Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™
https://thinair.football
At $16.1M over three seasons for Wil Lutz, that APY comes in as 6th highest among kickers.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
November 26, 2025 at 10:00 PM
At $16.1M over three seasons for Wil Lutz, that APY comes in as 6th highest among kickers.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
Over three seasons, a top Tier C contract probably comes out to about $22.5M to $24M, that's the range that I would guess for his contract's base amount.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
November 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Over three seasons, a top Tier C contract probably comes out to about $22.5M to $24M, that's the range that I would guess for his contract's base amount.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
Back in July, I had scoped out some tiers of interior defensive lineman contracts.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
November 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Back in July, I had scoped out some tiers of interior defensive lineman contracts.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
A two year cash flow of $25M also lags behind about as much as the APY on this contract does.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
November 26, 2025 at 2:01 AM
A two year cash flow of $25M also lags behind about as much as the APY on this contract does.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
Here was my look at a possible Luke Wattenberg extension back in July:
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
November 26, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Here was my look at a possible Luke Wattenberg extension back in July:
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
I'll be curious to see the structure of the reported $27M in guarantees.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
November 26, 2025 at 1:52 AM
I'll be curious to see the structure of the reported $27M in guarantees.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
I had envisioned a floor for a team friendly contract to be around $13.25M APY.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
November 26, 2025 at 1:51 AM
I had envisioned a floor for a team friendly contract to be around $13.25M APY.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
You can visit the Rookie Contract Cash Flows on OTC here:
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
November 24, 2025 at 5:21 PM
You can visit the Rookie Contract Cash Flows on OTC here:
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
With the regular season in college football coming to an end next week, I put together a new page for Over The Cap that lists the running cash flows that each drafted rookie is slated to earn as prescribed by the CBA, along with an interactive tool to compare non-NFL earnings.
November 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM
With the regular season in college football coming to an end next week, I put together a new page for Over The Cap that lists the running cash flows that each drafted rookie is slated to earn as prescribed by the CBA, along with an interactive tool to compare non-NFL earnings.
It is amazing and outstanding how the Broncos have had a string of 4 straight excellent kickers for over 20 years now.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
November 22, 2025 at 2:09 PM
It is amazing and outstanding how the Broncos have had a string of 4 straight excellent kickers for over 20 years now.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
#6 for kickers would indicate that Wil Lutz got a contract somewhere around this range:
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 PM
#6 for kickers would indicate that Wil Lutz got a contract somewhere around this range:
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
This Brandon Aiyuk development is wild. I wouldn't expect a player to waive his right to a grievance over voided guarantees. Does he really want out of San Francisco?
November 22, 2025 at 12:24 AM
This Brandon Aiyuk development is wild. I wouldn't expect a player to waive his right to a grievance over voided guarantees. Does he really want out of San Francisco?
In the next CBA I'd like to see more of the option bonus and void year stuff formalized a bit more, so that there's more clarity on exactly what tools teams have to allocate cap dollars across seasons.
November 20, 2025 at 10:56 PM
In the next CBA I'd like to see more of the option bonus and void year stuff formalized a bit more, so that there's more clarity on exactly what tools teams have to allocate cap dollars across seasons.
Broncos have been on the cutting edge of this too.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
November 20, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Broncos have been on the cutting edge of this too.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
If Solomon Thomas does not qualify as a compensatory free agent, the Cowboys' lost/gained different moves from 2 to 3.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
November 20, 2025 at 10:23 PM
If Solomon Thomas does not qualify as a compensatory free agent, the Cowboys' lost/gained different moves from 2 to 3.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
A good point was made to me by @ac352186:
With the Cowboys trading for Quinnen Williams, that could reduce Solomon Thomas's snaps.
Thomas is also dealing with an injury that could reduce snaps further.
This could add a 6th round compensatory pick to the Cowboys.
With the Cowboys trading for Quinnen Williams, that could reduce Solomon Thomas's snaps.
Thomas is also dealing with an injury that could reduce snaps further.
This could add a 6th round compensatory pick to the Cowboys.
November 20, 2025 at 10:21 PM
A good point was made to me by @ac352186:
With the Cowboys trading for Quinnen Williams, that could reduce Solomon Thomas's snaps.
Thomas is also dealing with an injury that could reduce snaps further.
This could add a 6th round compensatory pick to the Cowboys.
With the Cowboys trading for Quinnen Williams, that could reduce Solomon Thomas's snaps.
Thomas is also dealing with an injury that could reduce snaps further.
This could add a 6th round compensatory pick to the Cowboys.
So... due to the massive Cloudflare outage, my undivided attention is here for a while.
What's up? Anything new in the NFL world I should know? Any questions?
What's up? Anything new in the NFL world I should know? Any questions?
November 18, 2025 at 1:33 PM
So... due to the massive Cloudflare outage, my undivided attention is here for a while.
What's up? Anything new in the NFL world I should know? Any questions?
What's up? Anything new in the NFL world I should know? Any questions?
There's been a lot of talk about the features the new Broncos stadium should have, but there hasn't been enough talk about the necessity to make it among the loudest in the NFL.
November 17, 2025 at 3:53 PM
There's been a lot of talk about the features the new Broncos stadium should have, but there hasn't been enough talk about the necessity to make it among the loudest in the NFL.
It's so difficult to execute it in real time, but if De'Von Achane had gone down in bounds at around the 11 yard line, this game likely looks way different now.
November 16, 2025 at 5:25 PM
It's so difficult to execute it in real time, but if De'Von Achane had gone down in bounds at around the 11 yard line, this game likely looks way different now.
And for the Vikings, the tradeoff between playing Eric Wilson and getting a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick become starker, as now Trent Sherfield may be less likely to bail them out.
November 15, 2025 at 9:51 PM
And for the Vikings, the tradeoff between playing Eric Wilson and getting a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick become starker, as now Trent Sherfield may be less likely to bail them out.
For the Broncos, between this move, and JK Dobbins unfortunately being out for the season, their odds of getting at least one 7th round 2026 compensatory pick have gone up, and could get as many as three of them.
November 15, 2025 at 9:50 PM
For the Broncos, between this move, and JK Dobbins unfortunately being out for the season, their odds of getting at least one 7th round 2026 compensatory pick have gone up, and could get as many as three of them.
Furthermore, if Trent Sherfield is claimed off waivers, he still has incentives that he could earn on his contract, particularly at the 30% snap count level on offense.
November 15, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Furthermore, if Trent Sherfield is claimed off waivers, he still has incentives that he could earn on his contract, particularly at the 30% snap count level on offense.
It is still unknown as to, after a player is cut, whether or not additional snaps will count should he sign and play on offense with a new team.
If Trent Sherfield does find a new team and plays more than a quarter of the offensive snaps, we should learn.
If Trent Sherfield does find a new team and plays more than a quarter of the offensive snaps, we should learn.
November 15, 2025 at 9:47 PM
It is still unknown as to, after a player is cut, whether or not additional snaps will count should he sign and play on offense with a new team.
If Trent Sherfield does find a new team and plays more than a quarter of the offensive snaps, we should learn.
If Trent Sherfield does find a new team and plays more than a quarter of the offensive snaps, we should learn.
Trent Sherfield getting cut after just barely missing the 25% minimum to get a snap count boost in the compensatory formula provides a fascinating test case as to whether or not he'll qualify as a compensatory free agent, which implicates both the Broncos and Vikings.
November 15, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Trent Sherfield getting cut after just barely missing the 25% minimum to get a snap count boost in the compensatory formula provides a fascinating test case as to whether or not he'll qualify as a compensatory free agent, which implicates both the Broncos and Vikings.