Nick Macpherson
@nickmacpherson.bsky.social
Former Treasury official
The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles
November 14, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...
Visualizing architectural wonders lost to history: rendering Project Soane
YouTube video by RAMSA | Robert A.M. Stern Architects
youtu.be
October 29, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours
October 29, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours
2 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney
June 11, 2025 at 3:04 PM
2 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney
Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade
www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...
www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...
Starmer must defy Trump by hugging other tariff victims closer
Britain doesn’t deserve to be on the end of Donald Trump’s taxes, but the solution may be to form an economic coalition of the willing and focus on what we’re good at
www.thetimes.com
April 5, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade
www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...
www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
👊🇨🇦🔥
Carney: The system of global trade anchored on the United States.. is over. Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80 year period when the United States embraced the mantle of economic leadership… is over.
April 3, 2025 at 7:25 PM
👊🇨🇦🔥
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs.
Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world.
Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road.
First 300 clicks free.
Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world.
Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road.
First 300 clicks free.
A US tariff pathology is unleashed upon the world
[FREE TO READ] The Republicans have allowed a destructive economic nationalist to lead America into chaos
on.ft.com
April 3, 2025 at 2:18 PM
My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs.
Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world.
Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road.
First 300 clicks free.
Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world.
Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road.
First 300 clicks free.
The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...
March 26, 2025 at 9:39 PM
The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...
Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney
March 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney
Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade
It is my honour to serve. Canada has given me everything. Now, I’m ready to give everything for Canada.
March 14, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬
March 13, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬
My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...
Mellon vs Churchill — when world leaders chose co-operation over confrontation
Jill Eicher’s timely book brings to life the battle between the US Treasury secretary and the British chancellor in the wake of the first world war
www.ft.com
March 7, 2025 at 2:27 PM
My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.
February 28, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Happy Brexit Day (2).
Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts?
My National Institute Economic Review article (open access).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts?
My National Institute Economic Review article (open access).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 31, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Happy Brexit Day (2).
Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts?
My National Institute Economic Review article (open access).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts?
My National Institute Economic Review article (open access).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney
January 17, 2025 at 5:53 PM
UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney
An interesting battle is playing out between the Bank of England and the market as to who determines the interest rate mortgage holders and businesses pay. At the moment, the market is winning. #soundmoney
January 9, 2025 at 8:16 AM
An interesting battle is playing out between the Bank of England and the market as to who determines the interest rate mortgage holders and businesses pay. At the moment, the market is winning. #soundmoney
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Partnerships with HM Treasury & DBT mean our 'Chancellors & Treasury' & 'History of Civil Service' students had classes in the Old Chancellor's Office & the Old Admiralty Building with DBT perm sec Gareth Davies
ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social
ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social
December 13, 2024 at 10:59 AM
Partnerships with HM Treasury & DBT mean our 'Chancellors & Treasury' & 'History of Civil Service' students had classes in the Old Chancellor's Office & the Old Admiralty Building with DBT perm sec Gareth Davies
ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social
ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social
I commend John Kingman's article on how to get the economy growing. In short, be bolder on planning, infrastructure, university reform and social housing.
November 24, 2024 at 6:32 PM
I commend John Kingman's article on how to get the economy growing. In short, be bolder on planning, infrastructure, university reform and social housing.
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
Excellent case studies on the IMF & ERM crises on our 'Chancellors & the Treasury' module
Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani
The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@policyatkings.bsky.social
Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani
The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@policyatkings.bsky.social
November 19, 2024 at 12:48 PM
Excellent case studies on the IMF & ERM crises on our 'Chancellors & the Treasury' module
Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani
The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@policyatkings.bsky.social
Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani
The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
@policyatkings.bsky.social
I understand why inheritance tax is unpopular. But 100%IHT relief encourages asset hoarding until death: it encourages inefficiency and is a barrier to productivity growth.
November 19, 2024 at 7:48 AM
I understand why inheritance tax is unpopular. But 100%IHT relief encourages asset hoarding until death: it encourages inefficiency and is a barrier to productivity growth.
Not altogether surprising given uncertainty around the US election but a reminder that investors in UK gilts expect a return and demand has its limits. #soundmoney
November 5, 2024 at 11:10 AM
Not altogether surprising given uncertainty around the US election but a reminder that investors in UK gilts expect a return and demand has its limits. #soundmoney
The Budget is a brave attempt to deal with HMG's inheritance but contains two vulnerabilities. Has the Chancellor tightened policy enough? If not, she may require a 2nd bite. And will the market absorb the extra borrowing? Early days but the recent rise in gilt yields is not encouraging. #soundmoney
October 31, 2024 at 2:49 PM
The Budget is a brave attempt to deal with HMG's inheritance but contains two vulnerabilities. Has the Chancellor tightened policy enough? If not, she may require a 2nd bite. And will the market absorb the extra borrowing? Early days but the recent rise in gilt yields is not encouraging. #soundmoney
Reposted by Nick Macpherson
The UK's baby bust continues - births in England and Wales in 2023 fell below 600,000, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.44 - lowest rate on record.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
October 28, 2024 at 9:38 AM
The UK's baby bust continues - births in England and Wales in 2023 fell below 600,000, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.44 - lowest rate on record.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The new rules could increase investment. But they will unambiguously increase borrowing and pressure on funding costs. HMG can contain those pressures through a credible macro plan. That will have nothing to do with the rules and everything to do with the path to stabilising debt. #soundmoney
Today Rachel Reevea has swept away one of the biggest weaknesses in the UK’s macroeconomic framework: the bias against public investment. It’s a very big deal.
October 24, 2024 at 8:26 PM
The new rules could increase investment. But they will unambiguously increase borrowing and pressure on funding costs. HMG can contain those pressures through a credible macro plan. That will have nothing to do with the rules and everything to do with the path to stabilising debt. #soundmoney
Fiscal rules aren't "rules", simce they are constantly changing and there are no consequences if you miss them. We don't call the 2% inflation target a rule. Much more important is whether fiscal policy is sustainable and coherent. Time to move on.
September 27, 2024 at 6:32 AM
Fiscal rules aren't "rules", simce they are constantly changing and there are no consequences if you miss them. We don't call the 2% inflation target a rule. Much more important is whether fiscal policy is sustainable and coherent. Time to move on.