No Sunk Costs
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Neobanks, BNPL, Wallets, come one, come all, welcome to the Rewards Treadmill where all that juicy Gross MDR turns into a few drops of Net MDR
December 3, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Neobanks, BNPL, Wallets, come one, come all, welcome to the Rewards Treadmill where all that juicy Gross MDR turns into a few drops of Net MDR
US middle market leverage with and without addbacks
December 3, 2025 at 3:40 PM
US middle market leverage with and without addbacks
IG Tech issuance trends
December 3, 2025 at 3:39 PM
IG Tech issuance trends
Really good piece by Matt Klein
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
December 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Really good piece by Matt Klein
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
Fun fact -- despite all the talk about "China slowdown, India growth acceleration", China has grown faster than India over trailing 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods in USD GDP/Capita terms
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
The Indian rupee has fallen below 90 per dollar for the first time.
December 3, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Fun fact -- despite all the talk about "China slowdown, India growth acceleration", China has grown faster than India over trailing 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods in USD GDP/Capita terms
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
This is despite the fact that the INR is overvalued and the RMB is undervalued (perhaps significantly)
December 3, 2025 at 9:16 AM
I wish there was a feature that auto-corrected every person who posts that ridiculous '$140,000 is the poverty' line article
One of the worst pieces of analysis that has ever gone viral
One of the worst pieces of analysis that has ever gone viral
December 2, 2025 at 9:46 AM
I wish there was a feature that auto-corrected every person who posts that ridiculous '$140,000 is the poverty' line article
One of the worst pieces of analysis that has ever gone viral
One of the worst pieces of analysis that has ever gone viral
McKinsey on the current neocloud business model
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
November 30, 2025 at 6:51 PM
McKinsey on the current neocloud business model
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
The Shaanxi province is the Hollywood of the Chinese micro-drama industry
The economics can be very good
The economics can be very good
November 30, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The Shaanxi province is the Hollywood of the Chinese micro-drama industry
The economics can be very good
The economics can be very good
Cross-country differences in perceptions about AI -- Chinese are highly positive across age groups and think it will help address improtant societal challenges
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
November 30, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Cross-country differences in perceptions about AI -- Chinese are highly positive across age groups and think it will help address improtant societal challenges
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
November 30, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
Shocked, shocked that this is what JPM's analysis has concluded makes stocks work
November 30, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Shocked, shocked that this is what JPM's analysis has concluded makes stocks work
This guy’s argument can be boiled down to “we need less imports and higher beef prices so we as incumbent capital owners can make a higher, unnatural return on capital” but there’s a lot of other filler in between
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
pca.st
November 30, 2025 at 3:07 AM
This guy’s argument can be boiled down to “we need less imports and higher beef prices so we as incumbent capital owners can make a higher, unnatural return on capital” but there’s a lot of other filler in between
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation
pca.st
November 30, 2025 at 2:28 AM
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
I still have time for 'Pluribus' due to talent involved, but it increasingly feels like a slog -- I admire the desire to convey concepts and ideas in an artistic format, but that's better suited to a movie
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
November 30, 2025 at 1:26 AM
I still have time for 'Pluribus' due to talent involved, but it increasingly feels like a slog -- I admire the desire to convey concepts and ideas in an artistic format, but that's better suited to a movie
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
November 23, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
November 22, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
November 22, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
November 22, 2025 at 5:32 AM
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
November 22, 2025 at 5:10 AM
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
November 22, 2025 at 4:24 AM
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
November 21, 2025 at 8:41 AM
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
November 19, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 AM
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade