No Sunk Costs
@nosunkcosts.bsky.social
Archive - https://x.com/nosunkcosts
Neobanks, BNPL, Wallets, come one, come all, welcome to the Rewards Treadmill where all that juicy Gross MDR turns into a few drops of Net MDR
December 3, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Neobanks, BNPL, Wallets, come one, come all, welcome to the Rewards Treadmill where all that juicy Gross MDR turns into a few drops of Net MDR
US middle market leverage with and without addbacks
December 3, 2025 at 3:40 PM
US middle market leverage with and without addbacks
IG Tech issuance trends
December 3, 2025 at 3:39 PM
IG Tech issuance trends
Really good piece by Matt Klein
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
December 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Really good piece by Matt Klein
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
No point in having a European Commission without a Europe
theovershoot.co/p/waking-the...
December 3, 2025 at 9:16 AM
8% EBIT margin business after Depreciation with risks skewed to the downside
November 30, 2025 at 6:54 PM
8% EBIT margin business after Depreciation with risks skewed to the downside
- BMaaS has no margin for error
- GPU rental business is worse than most nontech retail businesses
- 'big flashy contracts' have terrible economics, but allow Neoclouds to raise money from rubes
- the Bull Case requires Neoclouds to compete effectively with their biggest customers
- GPU rental business is worse than most nontech retail businesses
- 'big flashy contracts' have terrible economics, but allow Neoclouds to raise money from rubes
- the Bull Case requires Neoclouds to compete effectively with their biggest customers
November 30, 2025 at 6:53 PM
- BMaaS has no margin for error
- GPU rental business is worse than most nontech retail businesses
- 'big flashy contracts' have terrible economics, but allow Neoclouds to raise money from rubes
- the Bull Case requires Neoclouds to compete effectively with their biggest customers
- GPU rental business is worse than most nontech retail businesses
- 'big flashy contracts' have terrible economics, but allow Neoclouds to raise money from rubes
- the Bull Case requires Neoclouds to compete effectively with their biggest customers
McKinsey on the current neocloud business model
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
November 30, 2025 at 6:51 PM
McKinsey on the current neocloud business model
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
- low barriers to entry
- pricing 85% below hyperscalers
- is there enough enterprise demand for AI workloads
- chip producers (Nvidia) are subsidizing "implicit backstop"
This analysis about Hollywood, the impact of the strikes and the its relevance in a globalized content landscape holds up pretty well I think
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-15/w...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-15/w...
November 30, 2025 at 11:47 AM
This analysis about Hollywood, the impact of the strikes and the its relevance in a globalized content landscape holds up pretty well I think
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-15/w...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-15/w...
Chinese micro-drama industry is creating job opportunities for Western acting talent -- the cost of content production in China is incredibly cheap and they want to export
This is actually where Hollywood studios should be leaning in -- Western cultural context is their strength!
This is actually where Hollywood studios should be leaning in -- Western cultural context is their strength!
November 30, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Chinese micro-drama industry is creating job opportunities for Western acting talent -- the cost of content production in China is incredibly cheap and they want to export
This is actually where Hollywood studios should be leaning in -- Western cultural context is their strength!
This is actually where Hollywood studios should be leaning in -- Western cultural context is their strength!
This has been obvious for years -- it's just that the commentary about culture is dominated by a different age group than the consumption and creation of culture today
Trenchant TikTok commentators... are on TikTok! They don't write articles or books!
bsky.app/profile/nosu...
Trenchant TikTok commentators... are on TikTok! They don't write articles or books!
bsky.app/profile/nosu...
November 30, 2025 at 11:42 AM
This has been obvious for years -- it's just that the commentary about culture is dominated by a different age group than the consumption and creation of culture today
Trenchant TikTok commentators... are on TikTok! They don't write articles or books!
bsky.app/profile/nosu...
Trenchant TikTok commentators... are on TikTok! They don't write articles or books!
bsky.app/profile/nosu...
'Popular content / popular culture' is downstream of technology and internet culture now -- what gets made is based on what can grab attention
The half-life of content is collapsing hence any meaningful conversation about 'cultural impact' is automatically dated
The half-life of content is collapsing hence any meaningful conversation about 'cultural impact' is automatically dated
November 30, 2025 at 11:38 AM
'Popular content / popular culture' is downstream of technology and internet culture now -- what gets made is based on what can grab attention
The half-life of content is collapsing hence any meaningful conversation about 'cultural impact' is automatically dated
The half-life of content is collapsing hence any meaningful conversation about 'cultural impact' is automatically dated
The Shaanxi province is the Hollywood of the Chinese micro-drama industry
The economics can be very good
The economics can be very good
November 30, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The Shaanxi province is the Hollywood of the Chinese micro-drama industry
The economics can be very good
The economics can be very good
Cross-country differences in perceptions about AI -- Chinese are highly positive across age groups and think it will help address improtant societal challenges
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
November 30, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Cross-country differences in perceptions about AI -- Chinese are highly positive across age groups and think it will help address improtant societal challenges
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
US and UK are much more negative with low-income residents in every country much more concerned than high-income residents
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
November 30, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Despite the median manufacturing wage in China ~2-3x Vietnam's level, power tools companies that move there have 4-10% higher production costs
Shocked, shocked that this is what JPM's analysis has concluded makes stocks work
November 30, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Shocked, shocked that this is what JPM's analysis has concluded makes stocks work
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
November 23, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
Average Japanese seller is tiny vs other developed markets
November 22, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Average Japanese seller is tiny vs other developed markets
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
November 22, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
November 22, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
Non-cash gains on private company stakes accounted for 7% of SPX earnings last quarter
November 22, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Non-cash gains on private company stakes accounted for 7% of SPX earnings last quarter
To be fair, Capex forecasts have been wildly behind actuals for some time now so everyone is only looking at upside cases vs downside cases
November 22, 2025 at 5:40 AM
To be fair, Capex forecasts have been wildly behind actuals for some time now so everyone is only looking at upside cases vs downside cases
I love that we are no doing Capex forecasts based on macroeconomic variables and a call to historical buildout bubbles
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
November 22, 2025 at 5:37 AM
I love that we are no doing Capex forecasts based on macroeconomic variables and a call to historical buildout bubbles
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
November 22, 2025 at 5:32 AM
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
