Author | Lightnews

Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 5h

Maybe, maybe not. There's a point at which key constituencies who *are* in the know, like public sector unions, might diverge from the GenPop. The point is, fear of public blame for the shutdown should not be part of the calculation. Even so, you still need a theory of the case for how it ends well.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 5h

These are the same people who believe the president has a Good Economy button on his desk and either presses it or refuses to do so because he has some other agenda

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 5h

Any and all strategy has to be predicted on the fact that most of the public cannot process "why did you shut the government down?" as a question posed to *Dems* because they're not in the majority. The average American becomes viscerally angry if you try to make them understand what a cloture is.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 5h

The most straightforward theory of victory is that a large chunk of the public is allergic to the word "cloture" or anything resembling parliamentary procedure, so... The Worse, The Better, because all blame attaches to the GOP and it's trifecta until the pain becomes too much to bear

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 6h

Any excuse to post... WHERE IS JA? m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-d...

Dave Chappelle - Ja rule

YouTube video by gazala

m.youtube.com

Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 10h

Yeah, for sure, it's only something you'd do if you thought one or more of the ARTCCs along the way we're so understaffed that it would cause delays. Most GA is between 5k and 10k feet, so you've got a window where there's not a lot of risk of conflict. 8k is odd, maybe flying under Class B or C

Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 10h

If commercial flights stick to Class E airspace, they can just do their thing and understaffed ARTCCs don't have to worry about clearing them from sector to sector.

dbgbdwolf.bsky.social @dbgbdwolf.bsky.social · 11h

I don't get why this would be done. It certainly doesn't help ATC because they'd be responsible for alerting/deviating for all the VFR flights at those levels instead of up in the high routes where it's all IFR on pre-determined routes.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 12h

It's less Palantir and more Anduril - people just tend to conflate them. Every time Palmer Luckey opens his mouth to discuss anything strategic, part of my soul dies.

John Jacob Oppenheimer Schmidt @sleepyfkndev.bsky.social · 23h

I watched that interview, is there something specific from there that you’d like to reference? I’m not trying to be defensive here but you’re talking in circles and being oddly vague. What exactly is Palantir doing wrong. Please be specific.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 12h

An apt metaphor for a certain would-be American Louis XIV

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Reposted by Vlad Oligarchsky

Mitch Wolfe @whrwlfthrwlf85v.bsky.social · 13h

"Kristi Noem, in human form, do you see? Matt Gaetz, in human form, do you see? Kristi Noem, changing, do you see? Matt Gaetz, changing, do you see? Krist Noem, Mar-a-Lago face, do you see? Matt Gaetz, Mar-a-Lago face, do you see?"

Ralph Fiennes and Philip Seymour Hoffman during the "Do You See" scene from Red Dragon.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 15h

a cartoon drawing of an angry toaster with the words [ angry toaster noise ] below it

ALT: a cartoon drawing of an angry toaster with the words [ angry toaster noise ] below it

media.tenor.com

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 18h

(Context: I spent 10 years at FEMA but left 3 years ago) US&R teams are not FEMA employees and are not under FEMA OPCON when activated, so that's why I excluded them. You say they got rid of the DSA cadre? It's still on the website www.fema.gov/careers/path...

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 18h

This gives the Coasties a sad

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 18h

The Response staff both in the Regions and HQ do play a very important role, but mostly a coordinating one. The Logistics folks are probably the most 'boots on the ground' FEMA employees from a Response standpoint, but the 'people in the FEMA jackets' walking door to door are DSA, i.e., Recovery

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 18h

It's true that Response writ large makes up a small part of FEMA staffing. That makes sense because FEMA is not a first responder agency and Response is the shortest, most limited phase - Recovery, Mitigation, and Preparedness are all more enduring and more expensive, hence the grants, training, etc

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 18h

That's especially ironic considering that FEMA NFIP $ are an important part of the Kalispell economy through the NFS folks
www.downtownkalispell.com/national-flo...

National Flood Services | Kalispell, Montana | Downtown Kalispell

Kalispell Downtown Association Member, National Flood Services, a leader in the flood industry, near Downtown Kalispell.

www.downtownkalispell.com

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

The ACC is a Markov chain

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

3. Engaging with the various interest groups on your side to understand/document what policy changes they want to see.

4. Engaging with the legislative branch to start putting together what the executive wants on the legislative body's agenda.

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

The policy teams are generally doing a couple of things:

1. Understanding & documenting what's going on with the various executive agencies using public and, where possible, non-public sources. This gets turned into briefing books for incoming political staff.

2. Developing First X Days Plans

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

The number of relationship metaphors used in politics has surely powered at least a half-dozen gender studies dissertations en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sev...

The Seven Year Itch - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

Transition teams do a lot more than just staffing (I worked on the 2017 Presidential Transition from within an executive branch agency... let me tell you, that was an experience)

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

🎶 They wanna get my
Gus on the ceiling 🎶

a man playing drums with a ludwig drum set

ALT: a man playing drums with a ludwig drum set

media.tenor.com

Reposted by Vlad Oligarchsky

Luke Knox @lukeknox.me · 1d

Gus Johnson on every snap right now

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

I mean, if you believe Mamdani is a Stalinist... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General...

Generalissimo of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Vlad Oligarchsky @opulenceihazit.bsky.social · 1d

As it was in the beginning,
Is now,
And ever shall be,
World without end.
Amen. Amen.

Pookleblinky @pookleblinky.bsky.social · Apr 22

There's an interesting grammatical tense used only to talk about powerful, wealthy people, where they have simultaneously done the thing, are doing the thing, and will do the thing.

Totally divorced from the concept of linear time, the only important element is: important person and thing.