Afshon Ostovar
@osto.bsky.social
Historian of the recent past | Naval Postgraduate School | FPRI | Opinions are mine & don't reflect any org. New Book: Wars of Ambition https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambition-United-States-Struggle/dp/0190940980/
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become more than a military force. In the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon (@osto.bsky.social) and Yeganeh Torbati (@yjtorbati.bsky.social) unpack their growing role in the economy.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."
August 19, 2025 at 11:30 AM
"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become more than a military force. In the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon (@osto.bsky.social) and Yeganeh Torbati (@yjtorbati.bsky.social) unpack their growing role in the economy.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."
New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions
Iran’s economy runs on oil, but so does its foreign policy. Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social) and Gregory Brew unpack the regime's lifeblood in the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning — the newest members-only podcast from War on the Rocks.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
August 5, 2025 at 6:31 PM
New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Look what just arrived! By some of the absolute best in their fields: Stéphane Lacroix, @musaalgharbi.bsky.social and @osto.bsky.social
August 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Look what just arrived! By some of the absolute best in their fields: Stéphane Lacroix, @musaalgharbi.bsky.social and @osto.bsky.social
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Behind the warheads — Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social) and Fabian Hinz explore how politics, partnerships, and pressure shaped Iran’s missile ambitions.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
July 21, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Behind the warheads — Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social) and Fabian Hinz explore how politics, partnerships, and pressure shaped Iran’s missile ambitions.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
Iran’s forever crisis is far from over
As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.
engelsbergideas.com
July 17, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
Iran’s forever crisis is far from over
As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.
engelsbergideas.com
July 17, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
Had an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together
newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...
newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...
What Iran Wants
Historian and podcaster Afshon Ostovar joins Faisal Al Yafai to discuss the ideology and strategy of Iran.
newlinesmag.com
July 11, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Had an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together
newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...
newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...
We’re doing a thing
This week, we are launching a new members-only show: "The Iran Contingency with Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social)." For a limited time, become a WOTR Platinum member for $99/year, down from $150 warontherocks.member...
June 23, 2025 at 7:51 PM
We’re doing a thing
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Excellent analysis by @osto.bsky.social: “Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.”
www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
How Iran Lost
Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 19, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Excellent analysis by @osto.bsky.social: “Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.”
www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
The regional status quo that Iran established over the past three decades is finished—and it is now clear that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have lost their decades-long conflict with Israel, argues @osto.bsky.social.
How Iran Lost
Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 18, 2025 at 7:14 PM
The regional status quo that Iran established over the past three decades is finished—and it is now clear that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have lost their decades-long conflict with Israel, argues @osto.bsky.social.
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com
How Iran Lost
Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 18, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli strikes on #Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group says.
June 19, 2025 at 1:43 AM
APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli strikes on #Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group says.
Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com
How Iran Lost
Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 18, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
The intelligence apparatus that has kept Khamenei in power for 4 decades is crumbling around him. He will spend the autumn of his life fighting to salvage the Islamic Republic.
"The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me
My story:
www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran
"The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me
My story:
www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran
Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options
Tehran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened and unable to respond in kind to Israeli attacks
www.wsj.com
June 14, 2025 at 8:08 AM
The intelligence apparatus that has kept Khamenei in power for 4 decades is crumbling around him. He will spend the autumn of his life fighting to salvage the Islamic Republic.
"The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me
My story:
www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran
"The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me
My story:
www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
@osto.bsky.social: "It’s a huge blow. It’s eviscerated a brain trust that has led Iran’s strategy for the last 20 years...It’s like taking out the bulk of your national security council...Khamenei is much more alone now than he was yesterday."
Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...
Iran’s Military Just Lost Its ‘Brain Trust’
Israeli strikes killed several of Iran’s top military commanders.
foreignpolicy.com
June 13, 2025 at 9:24 PM
@osto.bsky.social: "It’s a huge blow. It’s eviscerated a brain trust that has led Iran’s strategy for the last 20 years...It’s like taking out the bulk of your national security council...Khamenei is much more alone now than he was yesterday."
Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/video/series...
www.wsj.com/video/series...
Iran’s Military Arsenal Against Israel
As Iran strikes back at Israel after an unprecedented attack on Tehran’s nuclear operations, WSJ explains Iran’s military capabilities and strategy.
www.wsj.com
June 15, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/video/series...
www.wsj.com/video/series...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...
Iran’s Military Just Lost Its ‘Brain Trust’
Israeli strikes killed several of Iran’s top military commanders.
foreignpolicy.com
June 13, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com
Iran is rethinking its Houthi strategy
The Iranian regime is under intense strain. The collapse of its proxy network in Syria, Israel’s evisceration of Hezbollah and Hamas, and US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign have all...
unherd.com
April 7, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com
Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com
Iran is rethinking its Houthi strategy
The Iranian regime is under intense strain. The collapse of its proxy network in Syria, Israel’s evisceration of Hezbollah and Hamas, and US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign have all...
unherd.com
April 7, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com
Very cool! Congratulations, Sam!
All the books in this series have similar covers so this was expected but it’s still great to see!
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
April 4, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Very cool! Congratulations, Sam!
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science
On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...
pomeps.org
January 24, 2025 at 8:27 PM
It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know
The United Nations has expressed concern over persecution of Baha'is in Iran as arrests mount.
www.al-monitor.com
January 30, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
Reposted by Afshon Ostovar
Has Iran suffered a strategic defeat, or is it just a setback? What does its regional presence look like today - and how did it get there? My podcast this weeks talks to the great Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social about his new book Wars of Ambition
pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science
On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...
pomeps.org
January 23, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Has Iran suffered a strategic defeat, or is it just a setback? What does its regional presence look like today - and how did it get there? My podcast this weeks talks to the great Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social about his new book Wars of Ambition
pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science
On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...
pomeps.org
January 24, 2025 at 8:27 PM
It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...
Very honored to see Wars of Ambition make this list and be among such illustrious company
Books of the Year 2024
Contributors to Engelsberg Ideas highlight the books they’ve enjoyed in 2024.
engelsbergideas.com
December 20, 2024 at 5:15 PM
Very honored to see Wars of Ambition make this list and be among such illustrious company