Oyster Analytics
@oysteranalytics.bsky.social
Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent. Made it to Bluesky!
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
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In Keith Law's #94 rank of Seaver King, Law cites King's big AFL campaign in his aggressive evaluation of the SS, but we are a bit wary. In our AFL piece (link in replies), we looked at regular-season strugglers who went off in the AFL and found that they had underwhelming career outcomes.
January 26, 2026 at 6:21 PM
In Keith Law's #94 rank of Seaver King, Law cites King's big AFL campaign in his aggressive evaluation of the SS, but we are a bit wary. In our AFL piece (link in replies), we looked at regular-season strugglers who went off in the AFL and found that they had underwhelming career outcomes.
Williams, who was our Mets #2 prospect and now Milwaukee's #2 (post-trade updates coming soon!), is one of our favorite players! He's a prime example of a sneaky hitting threat: he's got XBH power in spades, great lift rates, and has great BB ability. Also + SS or CF potential!
January 23, 2026 at 10:33 PM
Williams, who was our Mets #2 prospect and now Milwaukee's #2 (post-trade updates coming soon!), is one of our favorite players! He's a prime example of a sneaky hitting threat: he's got XBH power in spades, great lift rates, and has great BB ability. Also + SS or CF potential!
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Check out our take on Baseball America's 2026 Top-100! We highlight some of our agreements and disagreements, and go deeper into how our model evaluates players. We also answer a burning question: Why is Konnor Griffin so low in our rankings?
What a Data Driven Rankings System Makes of the New Baseball America Top 100
We explore what key similarities and differences in BA and Oyster rankings tell us about top prospects, scouting, and modeling
downonthefarm.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Check out our take on Baseball America's 2026 Top-100! We highlight some of our agreements and disagreements, and go deeper into how our model evaluates players. We also answer a burning question: Why is Konnor Griffin so low in our rankings?
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In the lead-up to tomorrow's article giving our takes on some of Baseball America's 2026 top 100, we wanted to showcase our prior work on the major prospect ranking outlets, what they do well, where they miss, and the strengths and weaknesses of each!
The Rankings Audit: How Good Are Mainstream Prospect Rankings Really?
We look back on Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline rankings between 2017-2021 and discuss how they compare, what they do well, and what they miss
downonthefarm.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:45 AM
In the lead-up to tomorrow's article giving our takes on some of Baseball America's 2026 top 100, we wanted to showcase our prior work on the major prospect ranking outlets, what they do well, where they miss, and the strengths and weaknesses of each!
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What impact will Robert Jr. have on the Mets? Despite being worse vs. RHP, Robert Jr. upgrades the lineup more vs. righties, as Tyrone Taylor has well-below avg. splits vs. RHP. Robert Jr. projects to be a below-average hitter overall, and the Mets will hope he can find his old form!
January 21, 2026 at 6:09 AM
What impact will Robert Jr. have on the Mets? Despite being worse vs. RHP, Robert Jr. upgrades the lineup more vs. righties, as Tyrone Taylor has well-below avg. splits vs. RHP. Robert Jr. projects to be a below-average hitter overall, and the Mets will hope he can find his old form!
This hot take Tuesday, we agree with the surprisingly high placement of Romero as the #5 3B per MLB Pipeline. We love his skillset; he has solid power and respectable contact with a high LD, high FB profile. We're low on his ceiling because of low BB, but IF with pop are rare!
January 20, 2026 at 7:17 PM
This hot take Tuesday, we agree with the surprisingly high placement of Romero as the #5 3B per MLB Pipeline. We love his skillset; he has solid power and respectable contact with a high LD, high FB profile. We're low on his ceiling because of low BB, but IF with pop are rare!
The Oyster Simulator takes on the biggest signings of this free agency period: Tucker to the Dodgers and Bichette to the Mets! While both moves make their squads better, the Tucker acquisition is especially valuable, as he both benefits and boosts the Dodgers' elite bats!
Pay the Big Dawgs! Simulating the Impact of the Tucker and Bichette Signings
The Oyster Simulator returns to assess the sluggers’ impacts on the Dodgers and Mets lineups
open.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 9:33 PM
The Oyster Simulator takes on the biggest signings of this free agency period: Tucker to the Dodgers and Bichette to the Mets! While both moves make their squads better, the Tucker acquisition is especially valuable, as he both benefits and boosts the Dodgers' elite bats!
Signing the top OF projects to have a big payoff for the Dodgers, who improve against both RHP and LHP. Adding .3 runs per game (with the ideal lineup) is a massive increase, even for a team as loaded as Los Angeles!
January 17, 2026 at 12:03 AM
Signing the top OF projects to have a big payoff for the Dodgers, who improve against both RHP and LHP. Adding .3 runs per game (with the ideal lineup) is a massive increase, even for a team as loaded as Los Angeles!
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The AL Central may be the most exciting division for prospect hounds, with top-end talent rivalling any division. In today's article, we dive into the guys who we will be eagerly following in 2026, from MLB talent to R-Ball standouts looking to make the leap!
Overlooked Outfielders and a Catching Cornerstone: The Key AL Central Prospects to Watch in 2026
What to watch for and expect from players in each system entering pivotal seasons
downonthefarm.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:24 PM
The AL Central may be the most exciting division for prospect hounds, with top-end talent rivalling any division. In today's article, we dive into the guys who we will be eagerly following in 2026, from MLB talent to R-Ball standouts looking to make the leap!
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Despite a pair of 120+ wRC+'s, we're low on both of the new Marlins. Why? Both are quite old for their levels (Jones 23 in AA, Lewis 22 in A+). The big knock on both guys is very high IFFB% (27.2% for Jones, 34.8% for Lewis). Both have potential, but must pass upper-level tests!
January 14, 2026 at 7:51 PM
Despite a pair of 120+ wRC+'s, we're low on both of the new Marlins. Why? Both are quite old for their levels (Jones 23 in AA, Lewis 22 in A+). The big knock on both guys is very high IFFB% (27.2% for Jones, 34.8% for Lewis). Both have potential, but must pass upper-level tests!
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With the Cubs signing Alex Bregman, we ran our Oyster Sim to assess the signing. Despite the big paycheck, our simulator believes that the addition of Bregman will only marginally help the Cubs, who already possess solid RHH infield depth. Check out the full piece here:
How Big is the Bregman Bump? Simulating the $175-million Man's Impact
We use the Oyster Simulator to evaluate just how much better the Cubs’ lineup is with its expensive new addition
downonthefarm.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 7:24 PM
With the Cubs signing Alex Bregman, we ran our Oyster Sim to assess the signing. Despite the big paycheck, our simulator believes that the addition of Bregman will only marginally help the Cubs, who already possess solid RHH infield depth. Check out the full piece here:
While all big signings are exciting, big-time international FA signings are volatile to say the least. From our piece on all amateur signings, here's the top 10 by bonus received. A mixed list that shows how hard it is to ID talent at age 16!
January 10, 2026 at 9:27 PM
While all big signings are exciting, big-time international FA signings are volatile to say the least. From our piece on all amateur signings, here's the top 10 by bonus received. A mixed list that shows how hard it is to ID talent at age 16!
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Over the next few weeks, we'll be writing about one prospect from each team that we'll have our eyes on in '26. We started with the AL East, focusing on some of the league's big-swinging prospects (and one elite defender in Orioles orange). Check it out!
Big Swingers and a Speedster: The Key AL East Prospects to Watch in 2026
What to watch for and expect from players in each system entering pivotal seasons
downonthefarm.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Over the next few weeks, we'll be writing about one prospect from each team that we'll have our eyes on in '26. We started with the AL East, focusing on some of the league's big-swinging prospects (and one elite defender in Orioles orange). Check it out!
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Caissie's K-rate hurts his ceiling somewhat, but his strong line drive stroke gives him average despite the Ks, a rarity. The OF defense is also decent, another positive and rare for a big swinger. Comp is Kyle Stowers... the Fish developed him well!
January 7, 2026 at 6:59 PM
Caissie's K-rate hurts his ceiling somewhat, but his strong line drive stroke gives him average despite the Ks, a rarity. The OF defense is also decent, another positive and rare for a big swinger. Comp is Kyle Stowers... the Fish developed him well!
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On the Cabrera deal, if we were the Marlins, we'd have our eye on the (rumoured target) Owen Caissie. Ballesteros fits poorly with MIA, as they already have a poor glove, great bat C in Agustín Ramírez, but Caissie provides a solid corner OF option.
January 7, 2026 at 6:59 PM
On the Cabrera deal, if we were the Marlins, we'd have our eye on the (rumoured target) Owen Caissie. Ballesteros fits poorly with MIA, as they already have a poor glove, great bat C in Agustín Ramírez, but Caissie provides a solid corner OF option.
Once upon a time, we were big fans of Noel! His plus power and acceptable K rate were great, although the close cont. & reg. ratings indicated bust risk. In MLB, his chase has been his downfall (48%!! in 2025). Less chase or improved in-zone contact is the path forward!
January 5, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Once upon a time, we were big fans of Noel! His plus power and acceptable K rate were great, although the close cont. & reg. ratings indicated bust risk. In MLB, his chase has been his downfall (48%!! in 2025). Less chase or improved in-zone contact is the path forward!
Time for... Worst Take Wednesday? On the last day of the year, we'll respond to anyone who comments with our current "worst take." Check out the site (link in bio), find a bad take, and we'll (respectfully) defend our opinion. No Jadher slander allowed!
December 31, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Time for... Worst Take Wednesday? On the last day of the year, we'll respond to anyone who comments with our current "worst take." Check out the site (link in bio), find a bad take, and we'll (respectfully) defend our opinion. No Jadher slander allowed!
Carson Benge is an interesting prospect; above average in all areas and young, but only our #136 overall? Our model seems divided on his MiLB work: a good but old for level A+ run, a fantastic AA HR fest, and an unlucky, poor AAA stint. Also, a smaller sample than other hot prospects.
December 29, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Carson Benge is an interesting prospect; above average in all areas and young, but only our #136 overall? Our model seems divided on his MiLB work: a good but old for level A+ run, a fantastic AA HR fest, and an unlucky, poor AAA stint. Also, a smaller sample than other hot prospects.
Since the off-season, we’ve cleaned up our mobile presentation! Check out guys like EV gainer Luis Peña on our shiny app, link in bio!
December 27, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Since the off-season, we’ve cleaned up our mobile presentation! Check out guys like EV gainer Luis Peña on our shiny app, link in bio!
Merry Christmas, everyone! While we can't get gifts down your chimneys, we hope to keep delivering the best prospect analysis out there. Enjoy the holidays and the new year!
December 25, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Merry Christmas, everyone! While we can't get gifts down your chimneys, we hope to keep delivering the best prospect analysis out there. Enjoy the holidays and the new year!
We're higher on Melton than most! His well-rounded play is a serious asset, and he's a rare player with + power and good contact and discipline. He also plays a decent CF and swiped 37 bags last season. He's had slow promotion performances before rebounding. MLB more of the same?
December 22, 2025 at 4:20 PM
We're higher on Melton than most! His well-rounded play is a serious asset, and he's a rare player with + power and good contact and discipline. He also plays a decent CF and swiped 37 bags last season. He's had slow promotion performances before rebounding. MLB more of the same?
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Our final piece of 2025 recaps a fun year in baseball research and prospect analysis! Highlighting the best of our 47 articles, we give you some concise takeaways to prime your 2026. Simulations, steal strategy, sticky traits, sending runners, and more!
The Down on the Farm Year in Review: Our Prime Nine Nuggets of 2025
We wrap up the year with a distillation of 47 articles into a lineup’s worth of key takeaways
downonthefarm.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Our final piece of 2025 recaps a fun year in baseball research and prospect analysis! Highlighting the best of our 47 articles, we give you some concise takeaways to prime your 2026. Simulations, steal strategy, sticky traits, sending runners, and more!
This #hottaketuesday, stay high on Nimmala! He faded from the spotlight after a slow finish, but the underlying numbers still look good. He cut a poor ~30% K% in '24 to 21.4% in '25, and has + pop for a then 19 YO. If he can up his lift and pull in '25, look out!
December 16, 2025 at 10:27 PM
This #hottaketuesday, stay high on Nimmala! He faded from the spotlight after a slow finish, but the underlying numbers still look good. He cut a poor ~30% K% in '24 to 21.4% in '25, and has + pop for a then 19 YO. If he can up his lift and pull in '25, look out!
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We wrote about the O's new acquisitions in last week's piece, and these two prospects are the next up! We love Basallo; his AAA output is in an elite class. Our model is unkind to Bradfield Jr, as it ignores his ++ fielding upside, but as a BB-driven non-masher, MLB may be tough!
December 14, 2025 at 8:47 PM
We wrote about the O's new acquisitions in last week's piece, and these two prospects are the next up! We love Basallo; his AAA output is in an elite class. Our model is unkind to Bradfield Jr, as it ignores his ++ fielding upside, but as a BB-driven non-masher, MLB may be tough!
We broke down the O's recent acquisitions in today's article.
@oriolesontheverge.bsky.social might be into this one!
@oriolesontheverge.bsky.social might be into this one!
Hot off the presses, we use the Oyster Simulator to predict how the Orioles' new signings, Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso, will impact an offense looking for redemption in 2026! Spoiler: both signings fit the Orioles' righty bat need while boosting production across the board!
How Good Are the New-Look Orioles? Simulating the Alonso-Ward Boost
We dig into exactly how much the Orioles can expect their new acquisitions to improve their run scoring capabilities
downonthefarm.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 7:44 PM
We broke down the O's recent acquisitions in today's article.
@oriolesontheverge.bsky.social might be into this one!
@oriolesontheverge.bsky.social might be into this one!