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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 3d

Yet another article that approaches the Taiwan issue purely in terms of military deterrence. It's a diplomatic problem that needs a diplomatic solution. But there's no US appetite for dealing with Beijing, so diplomacy is not in the cards. This only makes military conflict more likely.

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20d

"I wish both countries well"?

Reposted by Paul Heer

Jake Werner @jwdwerner.bsky.social · 20d

I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.

They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.

Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...

What Does China Want?

Join as we discuss China's true goals and motivations.

quincyinst.org

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Reposted by Paul Heer

John Culver @johnculver689.bsky.social · 26d

Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?

Ezra Klein @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social · 26d

"I had friends say to me, look, we can oppose political violence without whitewashing this guy. I spent some time thinking about that over the weekend...and my reaction honestly is that it is too little to just say we oppose political violence."

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Sep 11

This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.

Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · Sep 11

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.

I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.

A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Sep 6

Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Sep 4

Does it matter what's in the Epstein files? Whatever is there, the Republicans are going to prevent any prosecution or impeachment of Trump.

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 20

"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 20

"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

What Does China Want?

Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...

direct.mit.edu

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 20

"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

What Does China Want?

Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...

direct.mit.edu

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 19

"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."

Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · Aug 19

George Will: The problem is not that (Trump) is endlessly cynical, which would be an improvement. Rather, he seems promiscuously sincere, believing everything equally, no matter how discordant his beliefs today are with yesterday’s. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | Now it is the Old World’s turn to rescue the United States

As Trump met with European leaders on Ukraine, Churchill’s words from days long ago came to mind.

www.washingtonpost.com

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 18

"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."

John Culver @johnculver689.bsky.social · Aug 18

Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs:

"The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will."

x.com/BrookingsFP/...

Brookings Foreign Policy on X: ""Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169" / X

"Xi is obsessed with ensuring that the PLA’s men would resist if need be—but he is still not confident they would." In @ForeignAffairs, Brookings experts @jonczin & @JohnCulver689 examine Xi's approach to the PLA and his continued grip on the military: https://t.co/YAilFOn169

x.com

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 17

Just like Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un. He ignored the advice that you can't get something for nothing, and instead got nothing for something.

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Aug 4

"China’s Achilles’ heel has long been the fear it engenders with its aggressive behavior and lack of respect for other nations. Now, America is acting a lot like China and paying the price in global opinion."

Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · Aug 4

While conciliating Beijing, Trump has been alienating U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region with his capricious tariff threats. The latest to suffer is India, a key U.S. partner in confronting China. Trump announced Wednesday that he was hitting India with 25 percent tariffs. wapo.st/3UeAFE9

Opinion | China is winning the trade war Trump started

On many fronts, Trump is inadvertently aiding China’s anti-American dictatorship.

wapo.st

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 30

"The real politicization is the calculated distortion of intelligence by administration officials, notably Mr. Trump’s directors of national intelligence and the CIA, positions that should be apolitical."

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...

Opinion | Brennan and Clapper: Let’s Set the Record Straight on Russia and 2016

www.nytimes.com

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 29

“. . . We need a strategy that not only deals with both but recognizes the relationship between them and adjusts accordingly.” Biden acknowledged but never confronted this challenge. The Trump Administration appears even farther away from recognizing and addressing it. (3/3)

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 29

“ . . . to work with other nations to deal with shared challenges and we will not be able to do that unless we understand how a more competitive world affects cooperation and how the need for cooperation affects competition. . . ." (2/3)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 29

An important but largely overlooked—and still highly relevant—passage from the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy: “We cannot succeed in our competition with the major powers who offer a different vision for the world if we do not have a plan . . ." (1/3)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 12

And Rubio left the country rather than make the announcement and confront State employees himself.

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 10

Consequently, the stability and the stature and the very notion of America as we have long known it are all eroding. The most important open question is whether this condition is terminal, or might still be reversed. (END)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 10

Meanwhile, virtually all foreign and domestic policy has become reckless and inconsistent. Political discourse has become both shrill and futile. The country is becoming only more polarized, and now more violent. (3/4)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 10

In their response to this, Congress, the Supreme Court, and half of the American people—out of fear, excessive caution, and gullibility, respectively—are not exercising their constitutional power to push back in an effort to save the country. (2/4)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 10

What’s happening here? The US Government is now being driven by two things: the impulsive whims of an egotistical leader who recognizes no limits on his power; and a new “deep state” that is using him as the vehicle for its retrograde and revengeful agenda. (1/4)

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 8

"A lot of people don't understand that."

Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 2

"This is not something POTUS is not addressing." America would be much better off if there was a lot more that POTUS was not addressing.

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · Jul 2

"While publicly claiming that its actions are meant to depoliticize U.S. intelligence agencies, the Trump administration has in fact politicized them further . . . "

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence

“Speak plainly!” Russian President Vladimir Putin snapped at his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, at a televised security council meeting on the eve of his shambolic full-scale invasion o...

www.foreignaffairs.com