John Culver
@johnculver689.bsky.social
2.5K followers 81 following 200 posts
Fmr National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, retired CIA analyst. Views solely my own. Likes/reposts are not an endorsement.
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johnculver689.bsky.social
Watching the Chinese leadership manage public opinion across 1.4 billion citizens for decades is interesting. They have the autocratic toolkit (state media ownership, massive propaganda and censorship apparatus, the Great Firewall to block foreign news), but still worry constantly about public... 1/
johnculver689.bsky.social
What if Trump calls on the PRC to renounce use of force in exchange for a halt to US arms sales and Trump announces US support for reunification? Still nominating him?
fbermingham.bsky.social
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te:

"We hope Taiwan will continue to enjoy the support of President Trump. If he is able to convince Xi Jinping to permanently renounce the use of force against Taiwan, President Trump will surely win the Nobel Peace Prize"
President Lai interviewed by The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show-News releases-News & activities|Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)
Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)
english.president.gov.tw
johnculver689.bsky.social
And yet, Ms Parker is not, by far, the worst opinion columnist gracing the pages of the once-venerable Washington Post.
Reposted by John Culver
erinsikorsky.bsky.social
Fascinating look at China's resilience to extreme weather events -- investments in physical adaptation capacity unparalleled and innovative, yet information control that limits local officials' ability to build trust/tell truth limits effectiveness. (1/2)
How China was ready for Super Typhoon Ragasa – and what still needs to be done
Chinese cities have been hit by a series of deadly storms over the decades, but this time no one died on the mainland.
www.scmp.com
johnculver689.bsky.social
Please tell me Bellingcat is working on identifying Goon Squad members and operations.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Take a look at their major corporate underwriters.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Have you ever heard of Robert Paxton? He is a leading expert on fascism.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Command & control of swarms seems non-trivial. If they have an endgame for ground targets, their main utility might be to make TW air defenses go Winchester before high value systems go active.
johnculver689.bsky.social
They may not be interested in global trends, but GT are interested in them. I recall the last couple that were published forecast these asshole with clarity.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Yeah, we know. Someone should tell Chuck, Hakeem, and Nancy. They seem to think the polls indicate Dems will do great in the midterms. They don't know they're going to Gitmo for being ANTIFA.
davidakaye.bsky.social
bit by bit, the administration is laying the groundwork and actually carrying out a system of repressing democratic life in america. redefining opposition as terrorism, targeting critics, investigating civic funders.

we're so far beyond normal and, again, only eight months in.
johnculver689.bsky.social
All to bomb Lop Nur, where China neither makes nor stores nukes. Genius. If this idiocy comes to pass, China should let their Taliban friends know that strikes from there will result in a nuke DF-26 hitting Bagram. Nothing personal, just business.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?
ezrakleinbot.bsky.social
"I had friends say to me, look, we can oppose political violence without whitewashing this guy. I spent some time thinking about that over the weekend...and my reaction honestly is that it is too little to just say we oppose political violence."
johnculver689.bsky.social
It's an old model for insurgency and "national liberation" movements. The Political Wing and the Armed Wing, one public-facing, the other welding terror to make the PW look "reasonable." Usually connected at the top. Sinn Féin & IRA being the best know example.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Starting to think that the political class is all-in on the great AI race because they know the US has already lost the industrial one.
johnculver689.bsky.social
I hope some MSM reporters reach out because they are so not up to understanding any of this.
Reposted by John Culver
segfaultvicta.aludel.xyz
last night as i was trying to wind down for bed i had a unified theory of what the fuck just happened, and i wrote it down, and filed it under "well, i can't talk about this on main without sounding insane until and unless the perp gets caught and is provably a groyper"

anyways, great news! (1/X)
Reposted by John Culver
zackcooper.bsky.social
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.

I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.

A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
johnculver689.bsky.social
Whitey Bulger was an FBI CI. The bureau covered up 16 murders by his mob. Two FBI senior agents went to prison.
johnculver689.bsky.social
BTW, I first posted this on the other site five years ago.
johnculver689.bsky.social
What Trump wants from the military besides personal loyalty to him is for them to be killers. He has no idea, and would dismiss if explained, the role of laws governing armed conflict or domestic use of armed forces. He likely thinks Russian war crimes in Ukraine are great.
johnculver689.bsky.social
What Trump wants from the military besides personal loyalty to him is for them to be killers. He has no idea, and would dismiss if explained, the role of laws governing armed conflict or domestic use of armed forces. He likely thinks Russian war crimes in Ukraine are great.
johnculver689.bsky.social
Fun fact: during WW2 the US thought about seizing Taiwan--a Japanese colony since 1895--and decided Okinawa was easier and closer to the home islands. US combat losses on Okinawa and Iwo Jima figured in Truman's decision to use nuclear weapons to end the war.
johnculver689.bsky.social
I'm 💯 % sure that if someone asked Trump about the CBI theater of WW2, he'd start talking about Phantom of the Opera and end with hamberders.