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Reposted by Pedro Trivin

Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · Jun 16

¿Qué ocurre con el consumo cuando sube el salario mínimo? nadaesgratis.es/admin/que-oc... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

¿Qué ocurre con el consumo cuando sube el salario mínimo?

Por Ignacio González, Héctor Sala y Pedro Trivín En los últimos años, el debate sobre el salario mínimo ha cobrado una renovada relevancia. En este blog se ha discutido ampliamente el papel del sal...

nadaesgratis.es

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Jun 4

Muchas gracias por la difusión y los comentarios @nachoalvarez.bsky.social!

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Dep Economia Aplicada UAB @ecapuab.bsky.social · Jun 3

Hoy @lavanguardia.com recoge los resultados de la investigación del profesor de @ecapuab.bsky.social Hector Sala, realizada junto a Ignacio González y @pedrotrivin.bsky.social:
www.lavanguardia.com/economia/202...

El documento original disponible aquí: ddd.uab.cat/repec/doc/wp...

ddd.uab.cat

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

🔗 Full paper: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/92ic8...
Feedback more than welcome!

www.dropbox.com

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

8/8🌍 Policy Takeaway: Big MW increases can raise welfare by expanding consumption choices—not just levels—for low-income households. Spain’s case shows it’s possible without job losses or inflation.

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

7/8🤔 Why Non-Essentials? We model this using non-homothetic preferences: Low-wage workers, once basic needs are met, prioritize discretionary goods (e.g., leisure, gadgets).

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

6/8📉 Prices? Unlike some U.S. studies, we see no meaningful pass-through to prices. Real and nominal consumption effects align, suggesting firms absorbed costs or demand shifts were localized.

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

5/8⚖️ No Employment Trade-off: Despite fears, we find no detectable rise in unemployment post-reform. The consumption boost wasn’t offset by job losses—a win for low-wage workers’ purchasing power.

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

4/8🏠 Household Data Confirms: Survey results show similar trends—affected households increased spending by 4.6%, with leisure, restaurants, and furniture driving gains. No significant rise in essentials like health/education (likely due to Spain’s strong public services).

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

3/8💡 Key Result: The MW hike increased aggregate household consumption by 4.5%—but the gains were uneven. Spending surged on non-essentials:

Electronics: +20.2%

Leisure: +11.7%

Restaurants/hotels: +8.7%

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

2/8 📊 Context: Spain’s 2019 MW reform was unprecedented—raising wages by 22.3% in a low-inflation environment. Did this boost consumption? We analyze high-frequency transaction data (credit cards/POS) + household surveys to find out.

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · May 26

1/8 🚨 New paper alert!: "Consumption Responses to a Major Minimum Wage Increase: Evidence from Spain" (w/ @nacho2g.bsky.social & Hector Sala). We study how a historic 22.3% minimum wage (MW) rise affected household spending. Key findings below!

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Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · May 2

La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo nadaesgratis.es/admin/la-bre... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo

Por José I. Silva Las mujeres enfrentan un coste laboral importante por ser madres, incluso en países con sistemas de bienestar consolidados. En España, ese coste se manifiesta con fuerza en el mer...

nadaesgratis.es

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Reposted by Pedro Trivin

American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) @ajpseditor.bsky.social · Jan 21

Populism and the rule of law: The importance of institutional legacies by Andreas Kyriacou and Pedro Trivin is now available in Early View. @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social @pedrotrivin.bsky.social ajps.org/2025/01/21/p...

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Jan 4

Apres ski

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · Dec 22

Interesting paper just came out in the Journal of Finance:

"Working More to Pay the Mortgage: Household Debt, Interest Rates, and Family Labor Supply" by Michael Zator

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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Dan Vergano @danvergano.bsky.social · Nov 30

"Populism and the rule of law: The importance of institutional legacies"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/7CZEEG...

"a persistent negative impact on the rule of law, evident even 15 years after"

"greater in countries with a weak rule of law heritage: a fall of 17.5 pp. compared to a fall of 5.8 pp"

Effect of populist on rule of law over time from historical sample, divided by high vs. low rule of law nations

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

Bottom line: Populists are most dangerous to the rule of law in societies where legal institutions are already fragile. In countries like the U.S., with stronger traditions, institutions can limit the damage—but the impact remains non-negligible. 7/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

While we don’t directly test how populists dismantle institutions, we do not observe that populists are more likely to reform the constitutions, but they are more likely to replace it in contexts with weak rule of law. 6/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

iii) Populists attack the rule of law broadly:

- Judicial independence weakens.
- Access to justice erodes.
- Corruption increases.

5/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

ii) The impact varies based on the strength of the rule of law before populists take office. Populist governments have a stronger effect in contexts with weaker rule of law traditions. 4/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

Empirically, we use Synthetic Control Methods to analyze a cross-country sample including 51 populist events, we find that: i) Populist governments cause a substantial and persistent decline in the rule of law—an 11.4 percentage-point drop after 15 years. 3/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

Core Idea: Populists’ ability to undermine the rule of law depends on a country’s institutional legacies and societal norms. When respect for the law is ingrained as expected behavior, populists face stronger resistance—and institutions hold up better. 2/7

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Dec 3

Thrilled to kick off my Bluesky account by sharing that our paper, "Populism and the Rule of Law: The Importance of Institutional Legacies" (with @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social ), is now published in the AJPS (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! Here’s what we found. 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

Existing work sees populist governments undermining the rule of law because they seek to dismantle institutional constraints on their personalistic plebiscitarian rule. We argue that populist rulers ...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Pedro Trivin @pedrotrivin.bsky.social · Nov 19

Hola Santiago, me podrías añadir a la lista. Gracias!

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