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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 7d

President Donald Trump might not be crying for Argentina, but he does seem concerned about the future of the country’s economy.

In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how the potential "Trump bailout" is just another instance of this time NOT being different.

Trump’s Bailout of Argentina Is Not as Unusual as It Seems

The U.S. pledge to bail out Argentina’s economy may be due to Trump’s bond with Milei, but it’s not unprecedented.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 8d

IR Book of the Week!

"War and Power" by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Book argues that the focus on what makes nations "Great Powers" has led to a skewed our understanding of the true sources of power, particularly in the context of war.

War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why

War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why - Kindle edition by O'Brien, Phillips Payson. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why.

www.amazon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 8d

I shared my thoughts on Trump's "Gaza Peace Plan" 👇

TL,DR: There are some real positives, but unclear it will be accepted, hold, or enforced.

Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will acce...

Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will accept t...

www.linkedin.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 9d

Additionally, there were a host of comments by Trump & Hegseth that are consistent with this recent @wpr.bsky.social column:

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/interstate-w...

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 9d

Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding the Hegseth/Trump speeches: TL,DR -- this was a big mistake by both.

My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not… | Pa...

My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not toler...

www.linkedin.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10d

ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10d

Trump's UN speech was rooted in “an American First foreign policy” and Trump's own vision of the US as the "indispensable nation".

That is the thought I shared with @salon.com for this piece

www.salon.com/2025/09/27/a...

An Ugly American berates the United Nations — and shames the rest of us

Trump's angry speech before the General Assembly was "coarse absurdist theater"

www.salon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 11d

Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...

Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy

Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.

info.carnegiecouncil.org

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12d

Very true! As I wrote last year, always a worrying sign when a bunch of alliance pacts are forming at once

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-nato-...

A Rush to Form Alliances Is Always a Bad Sign

With a consolidation of competing alliance blocs, the world is entering a perilous time. It may only get worse.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12d

Here is the column

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article...

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12d

The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 14d

Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5

That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 15d

IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex

Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books

www.amazon.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 16d

I don't mean it in a braggadocious way, but I wrote about how prediction is hard...especially when it comes to world politics. Contrary to Trump's claims, you can't be right about everything.

Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Click on the article title to read more.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 17d

Glad I could contribute to this forum on the relevance of the UN after 80 years. I see the UN -- specifically the UNSC -- as largely successful because, "The original purpose of the Security Council was to prevent war between the great powers, not to prevent the great powers from waging war."

Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 17d

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?

From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

globalaffairs.org

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 17d

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?

From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

globalaffairs.org

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Craig Kafura @ckafura.bsky.social · 17d

Marking #UN80 @global-affairs.bsky.social with a great panel on internationalism and intl institutions, feat. @profpaulpoast.bsky.social, @ianhurd.bsky.social, and Juliet Sorensen

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 17d

Multilateralism is facing serious challenges. Ian Hurd and Juliet Sorensen join @profpaulpoast.bsky.social to discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the UN's 80th anniversary.

📹 : brnw.ch/21wW01K

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 18d

ICYMI: in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I discuss how an embrace and even enthusiasm for using violence abroad inevitably links back to violence at home.

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 18d

With Britain, Canada, and Australia officially recognizing Palestine as a state, I'm re-upping this recent @wpr.bsky.social piece on the topic. Some worry that this recognition rewards Hamas. It's not clear to me how that is the case, since the recognition is conditional on Hamas not being in power.

Recognizing Palestinian Statehood Isn’t Just Political Theater

France, the U.K. and Canada are all prepared to recognize the state of Palestine. What does that actually mean in international relations?

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 20d

During his Riverside sermon, MLK said that when a country embraces "massive doses of violence to solve its problems to bring about the changes it wanted" abroad, that directly leads to embracing the same approach home. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how we are seeing that dynamic today

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 21d

It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless

International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 21d

Next week, join @polisciatnu.bsky.social's Ian Hurd, @loyolachicago.bsky.social's Juliet Sorensen, and Council fellows Cécile Shea and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social as they discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary. brnw.ch/21wVTkc

A promotional graphic for the Council's 9/22 event, "The Future of Multilateralism: UN80 and Beyond," featuring headshots of speakers Ian Hurd, Juliet Sorensen, Cécile Shea, and Paul Poast and event details over a blue background.

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 22d

On Monday, I'm moderating this @global-affairs.bsky.social panel on the Future of the United Nations and Multilaterialism. It's going to be a great discussion. For those interested and in the Chicago area, hope you can make it!

globalaffairs.org/events/futur...

The Future of Multilateralism: UN80 and Beyond

Cécile Shea, Juliet Sorensen, Ian Hurd, and Paul Poast discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary.

globalaffairs.org

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 23d

To clarify, this is 50% of China's public think the EU is a friend.

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 23d

Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 24d

Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations.

It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 25d

ICYMI: I explore "What China Wants?" in my latest @wpr.bsky.social. The TL,DR is that China wants to be at the center, but not the leader, of a new global order.

Does Xi Actually Want China to Lead the Global Order?

Xi’s recent speeches contain clues about his vision for the future of the world order and China’s role in it.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 26d

🙏

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