Project Syndicate
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social
The World’s Opinion Page, featuring exclusive commentaries by scholars, policymakers, practitioners, and civic activists.
For Iran's rulers, the real threat posed by today's protests lies not in what Iranians can achieve on their own, but in whether they can serve as the handmaiden for a US war on the Islamic Republic, @valinasr.bsky.social explains. bit.ly/3NoA3eR
Why This Time Is Different for Iran
Vali Nasr points out that the Islamic Republic is facing a perfect storm of external and internal threats to its survival.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 8:56 PM
For Iran's rulers, the real threat posed by today's protests lies not in what Iranians can achieve on their own, but in whether they can serve as the handmaiden for a US war on the Islamic Republic, @valinasr.bsky.social explains. bit.ly/3NoA3eR
For Kristi Noem, JD Vance, and other administration officials, the price of admission to the MAGA cult is a robotic renunciation of conscience and a performative lobotomization of the self, Stephen Holmes observes. bit.ly/45pJKA7
A Slain Mother and the Triumph of the Lie
Stephen Holmes explains the deep, dark meaning of the Trump administration's falsehoods about Renee Nicole Good.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 8:39 PM
For Kristi Noem, JD Vance, and other administration officials, the price of admission to the MAGA cult is a robotic renunciation of conscience and a performative lobotomization of the self, Stephen Holmes observes. bit.ly/45pJKA7
One hopes that we have reached “peak Trump,” and that this dystopian era will end with the 2026 and 2028 elections. But the rest of the world cannot rely on hope alone. It must adopt a policy of containment, @josephestiglitz.bsky.social suggests. bit.ly/4pA6y77
America’s New Age of Empire
Joseph E. Stiglitz thinks the rest of the world should plan for the worst and pursue a policy of containment of the US.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 2:40 PM
One hopes that we have reached “peak Trump,” and that this dystopian era will end with the 2026 and 2028 elections. But the rest of the world cannot rely on hope alone. It must adopt a policy of containment, @josephestiglitz.bsky.social suggests. bit.ly/4pA6y77
The Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marks a watershed for international law and the global order, @dacemoglumit.bsky.social observes. bit.ly/3N4TDwK
What Now for the “Rules-Based Order”?
Daron Acemoglu thinks international relations will need to be rebuilt on a new philosophical and institutional foundation.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 12:34 PM
The Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marks a watershed for international law and the global order, @dacemoglumit.bsky.social observes. bit.ly/3N4TDwK
The capture of Venezuela's president probably augurs a new era of US intervention in Latin America, concludes
@nyu.edu's Jorge G. Castaneda. But whether Donald Trump can realize his vision of hemispheric hegemony is far from clear. bit.ly/3NAQp41
@nyu.edu's Jorge G. Castaneda. But whether Donald Trump can realize his vision of hemispheric hegemony is far from clear. bit.ly/3NAQp41
January 9, 2026 at 12:18 PM
The capture of Venezuela's president probably augurs a new era of US intervention in Latin America, concludes
@nyu.edu's Jorge G. Castaneda. But whether Donald Trump can realize his vision of hemispheric hegemony is far from clear. bit.ly/3NAQp41
@nyu.edu's Jorge G. Castaneda. But whether Donald Trump can realize his vision of hemispheric hegemony is far from clear. bit.ly/3NAQp41
While the economic challenges they face differ sharply, China, Europe, and the US have one thing in common, writes @ceps.eu's Daniel Gros: economic policy has little influence over their prospects. bit.ly/4qji08w
The Major Economies’ Prospects in 2026
Daniel Gros points out that the forces shaping the performance of China, Europe, and the US are largely immune to policy.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 11:10 AM
While the economic challenges they face differ sharply, China, Europe, and the US have one thing in common, writes @ceps.eu's Daniel Gros: economic policy has little influence over their prospects. bit.ly/4qji08w
Speculative unbacked tokens and lightly regulated stablecoins must be contained before they threaten financial stability and become part of the shadow banking sector, the Nobel laureate economist Jean Tirole argues. bit.ly/4qNoQTK
January 8, 2026 at 4:59 PM
Speculative unbacked tokens and lightly regulated stablecoins must be contained before they threaten financial stability and become part of the shadow banking sector, the Nobel laureate economist Jean Tirole argues. bit.ly/4qNoQTK
If the world is to prevent Donald Trump's Hobbesian approach to international relations from taking hold, condemnations will not be enough, warns Shlomo Ben-Ami in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. bit.ly/49tGaWH
Trump’s Hobbesian World Order
Shlomo Ben-Ami assesses the likely implications of the US attack on Venezuela for international relations.
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January 8, 2026 at 4:54 PM
If the world is to prevent Donald Trump's Hobbesian approach to international relations from taking hold, condemnations will not be enough, warns Shlomo Ben-Ami in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. bit.ly/49tGaWH
Reposted by Project Syndicate
I wrote about prediction markets' interpretive problem for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:
The Limits of Prediction Markets
Erin Lockwood parses the confusion over the winning bets on Time’s Person of the Year and explains why it matters.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 8, 2026 at 4:03 PM
I wrote about prediction markets' interpretive problem for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:
Unexpected or under-appreciated geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, points out AEI's Desmond Lachman in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. DonaldTrump’s actions may thus pose a grave risk to his favorite economic indicator: stock-market valuations. bit.ly/4sxUkin
How the Stock Market Could Sink Trump in 2026
Desmond Lachman identifies the main risks that could drag down the US president’s favorite economic indicator.
bit.ly
January 8, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Unexpected or under-appreciated geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, points out AEI's Desmond Lachman in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. DonaldTrump’s actions may thus pose a grave risk to his favorite economic indicator: stock-market valuations. bit.ly/4sxUkin
The Trump administration’s approach to international affairs further underscored the rest of the West’s casual complacency. If now isn’t the time for Westerners to articulate their foundational beliefs, when is? Jim O'Neill asks. bit.ly/4aP5xEP
Venezuela and the Future of the West
Jim O'Neill thinks the US intervention in Venezuela ends all hope that the old international order can still be salvaged.
bit.ly
January 8, 2026 at 2:41 PM
The Trump administration’s approach to international affairs further underscored the rest of the West’s casual complacency. If now isn’t the time for Westerners to articulate their foundational beliefs, when is? Jim O'Neill asks. bit.ly/4aP5xEP
The dispute over which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket underscores their dependence on human judgment, argues Erin Lockwood. bit.ly/4puXMaG
The Limits of Prediction Markets
Erin Lockwood parses the confusion over the winning bets on Time’s Person of the Year and explains why it matters.
bit.ly
January 8, 2026 at 2:38 PM
The dispute over which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket underscores their dependence on human judgment, argues Erin Lockwood. bit.ly/4puXMaG
We are pleased to announce our partnership with Impact CEE for its 2026 event, one of the region’s most important gatherings of political and business leaders, on May 13-14 in Poznań, Poland. Learn more about the event and get your ticket at the link. #Impact26 #PSEvents bit.ly/45wGkeG
January 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM
We are pleased to announce our partnership with Impact CEE for its 2026 event, one of the region’s most important gatherings of political and business leaders, on May 13-14 in Poznań, Poland. Learn more about the event and get your ticket at the link. #Impact26 #PSEvents bit.ly/45wGkeG
While China trails the US in cutting-edge model development, it is steadily assembling the hardware base and infrastructure on which the next phase of AI will depend, writes Angela Huyue Zhang. bit.ly/4qdkF3J
Overcapacity Is China’s Biggest AI Advantage
Angela Huyue Zhang explains why technological dominance hinges less on models and chips than on economy-wide dissemination.
bit.ly
January 8, 2026 at 11:17 AM
While China trails the US in cutting-edge model development, it is steadily assembling the hardware base and infrastructure on which the next phase of AI will depend, writes Angela Huyue Zhang. bit.ly/4qdkF3J
While many people believe that runaway population growth is overwhelming the planet, the real demographic time bomb is falling fertility rates, argues @ebrd.bsky.social's Beata Javorcik. bit.ly/3YYQj8W
The Looming Population Bust
Beata Javorcik warns that shrinking workforces and political inertia threaten fiscal sustainability and long-term stability.
bit.ly
January 8, 2026 at 10:21 AM
While many people believe that runaway population growth is overwhelming the planet, the real demographic time bomb is falling fertility rates, argues @ebrd.bsky.social's Beata Javorcik. bit.ly/3YYQj8W
With the world’s two economic superpowers contributing to the hollowing out of East Asian industry, the South Korean and Japanese economies’ prospects may seem bleak, writes Keun Lee. But they do not have to be. bit.ly/4bnLGww
The Hollowing Out of East Asian Industry
Keun Lee suggests how South Korea and Japan can adapt to US tariffs and China’s competitiveness in high-end goods.
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January 8, 2026 at 10:05 AM
With the world’s two economic superpowers contributing to the hollowing out of East Asian industry, the South Korean and Japanese economies’ prospects may seem bleak, writes Keun Lee. But they do not have to be. bit.ly/4bnLGww
Yi Fuxian shows how high-level Chinese officials like Peng Peiyun obscured the failures of the one-child policy, thereby compounding the damage exponentially. bit.ly/4qakFRJ
The End of China’s One-Child Policy, Ten Years Later
Yi Fuxian shows how high-level officials were able to obscure the failure of family-planning rules.
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January 7, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Yi Fuxian shows how high-level Chinese officials like Peng Peiyun obscured the failures of the one-child policy, thereby compounding the damage exponentially. bit.ly/4qakFRJ
Policymakers from middle-income countries must demand that multilateral development banks make at-risk financing available as soon as the next pandemic strikes, write Masyita Crystallin and @rglenner.bsky.social. bit.ly/3LzbUle
Ensuring Pandemic Financing for Middle-Income Countries
Masyita Crystallin & Rachel Glennerster call on multilateral development banks to commit now to providing at-risk funding for bets on vaccines.
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January 7, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Policymakers from middle-income countries must demand that multilateral development banks make at-risk financing available as soon as the next pandemic strikes, write Masyita Crystallin and @rglenner.bsky.social. bit.ly/3LzbUle
Europe cannot compete with the United States technologically because its single market exists only on paper, not in practice, Antonin Bergeaud, André Loesekrug-Pietri, and Jean Tirole argue. bit.ly/4qLfLuA
Europe Does Not Lack Capital - It Lacks Scale
Antonin Bergeaud, André Loesekrug-Pietri and Jean Tirole show that the biggest barrier to the sector’s development is structural, not financial.
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January 7, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Europe cannot compete with the United States technologically because its single market exists only on paper, not in practice, Antonin Bergeaud, André Loesekrug-Pietri, and Jean Tirole argue. bit.ly/4qLfLuA
Following Donald Trump's intervention in Venezuela, more countries will be looking to hedge their strategic bets and reduce their exposure to the US, even if there is no mass exodus from the US-anchored international order, Carla Norrlöf explains. bit.ly/4qLimoo
Does Venezuela Herald a No-Rules International Order?
Carla Norrlöf thinks the Trump administration has muddied the waters in ways that will make US global leadership costlier.
bit.ly
January 7, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Following Donald Trump's intervention in Venezuela, more countries will be looking to hedge their strategic bets and reduce their exposure to the US, even if there is no mass exodus from the US-anchored international order, Carla Norrlöf explains. bit.ly/4qLimoo
Stephen Holmes of NYU School of Law argues that Donald Trump's military intervention in #Venezuela is a policy made possible by the destruction of constitutional mechanisms intended to discipline US presidents' power.
bit.ly/4aLn68O
bit.ly/4aLn68O
January 7, 2026 at 12:33 PM
Stephen Holmes of NYU School of Law argues that Donald Trump's military intervention in #Venezuela is a policy made possible by the destruction of constitutional mechanisms intended to discipline US presidents' power.
bit.ly/4aLn68O
bit.ly/4aLn68O
Globally, there is a clear majority that can still be mobilized not just for humanitarian aid (provided the money is well spent), but also for collective action to deal with issues like climate change and pandemic prevention, Gordon Brown writes. bit.ly/3LBzzBz
January 7, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Globally, there is a clear majority that can still be mobilized not just for humanitarian aid (provided the money is well spent), but also for collective action to deal with issues like climate change and pandemic prevention, Gordon Brown writes. bit.ly/3LBzzBz
We are at a turning point for international cooperation, notes Nilima Gulrajani. The Global North seems far more committed to aiding defense than to defending aid. bit.ly/4q4kZBy
A New Framework for Financing Global Security
Nilima Gulrajani rejects the idea that there must be a tradeoff between defense spending and development aid.
bit.ly
January 7, 2026 at 11:03 AM
We are at a turning point for international cooperation, notes Nilima Gulrajani. The Global North seems far more committed to aiding defense than to defending aid. bit.ly/4q4kZBy
At COP30, the ocean moved from the margins to the mainstream of climate governance: the official outcome document explicitly recognized the role of marine ecosystems in planetary stability, writes Kilaparti Ramakrishna. bit.ly/4qA0i0c
The Ocean Has Finally Entered the Global Climate Debate
Kilaparti Ramakrishna shows how marine-based solutions gained prominence at COP30 and why they hold the key to planetary health.
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January 6, 2026 at 3:26 PM
At COP30, the ocean moved from the margins to the mainstream of climate governance: the official outcome document explicitly recognized the role of marine ecosystems in planetary stability, writes Kilaparti Ramakrishna. bit.ly/4qA0i0c
While Japan’s AI-friendly approach is already bearing fruit, there are pitfalls the country must avoid if it is to make the most of the technology, writes Hiroshi Mikitani. bit.ly/49aPArj
Will Japan Be the World’s Next AI Leader?
Hiroshi Mikitani touts public acceptance of the technology and policymakers’ “innovation-first” approach to regulating it.
bit.ly
January 6, 2026 at 2:40 PM
While Japan’s AI-friendly approach is already bearing fruit, there are pitfalls the country must avoid if it is to make the most of the technology, writes Hiroshi Mikitani. bit.ly/49aPArj