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Robert Ward

@robertalanward.bsky.social

1.5K followers 100 following 210 posts

Director of Geo-economics, Japan Chair ジャパン・チェア・プログラム Senior Fellow for Japanese Security Studies at The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/robert-ward-44286611

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Aug 6

This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 18

RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 9

The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China.

english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...

Japan, South Korea leaders agree to build stable ties in 1st phone talks

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung agree to build stable bilateral ties amid a severe strategic environment, with both expressing hope to meet in perso...

english.kyodonews.net

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 6

Last night’s view - Tokyo Tower looking superb. #東京タワー

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 5

Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning.
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 5

One of the joys of Tokyo in June is the roadside hydrangeas. Spotted these gorgeous specimens over the past couple of days. #Japan

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Jun 4

Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 27

Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 22

US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 21

Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China.

But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 19

A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud.
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 19

PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc.

Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...

Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison

The premier said he disagrees with the idea of funding tax cuts with Japanese government bonds, signaling caution over additional government spending.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 15

2025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides.

www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...

South Korea denies report of first-ever joint drill with Japanese troops in Philippines

South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denied a report that its marines will participate in joint drills with Japanese forces.

www.stripes.com

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 14

Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 7

Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · May 2

A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 30

This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 27

Fantastic. Love swifts - always sad when they leave at the end of the summer

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 27

I think they’re extra specially good this year. The flowers plus the birdsong were just perfect.

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 27

…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.

Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 27

This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer.
#Cotswolds #bluebells

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 25

Beautiful Paris - Île Saint-Louis, 4th, yesterday.
#Paris #streetscape #city

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 25

Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.

Reposted by Robert Ward

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Apr 25

Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters

China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"

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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · Apr 24

Hidden Paris - 11th, last week.
#Paris #streetscene #city