Sam Hoppen
@samhoppen.bsky.social
NFL Data Scientist π| Fmr FantasyPros, Betsperts | #GoPackGo | Opinions are my own
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Unlocked my NFC North offseason preview to be free for everyone! I wrote about:
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
February 3, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Unlocked my NFC North offseason preview to be free for everyone! I wrote about:
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
happening this morning in Minneapolis -- ICE agents drawing guns on observers. I reiterate again that it is only a matter of time before DHS kills more innocent people in Minnesota. Congress needs to shut this shit down right now.
February 3, 2026 at 4:19 PM
happening this morning in Minneapolis -- ICE agents drawing guns on observers. I reiterate again that it is only a matter of time before DHS kills more innocent people in Minnesota. Congress needs to shut this shit down right now.
Unlocked my NFC North offseason preview to be free for everyone! I wrote about:
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
February 3, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Unlocked my NFC North offseason preview to be free for everyone! I wrote about:
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
π¦ Detroit's decisions on their 2023 draft class
π£ Minnesota rebuilding through the draft
π§ How Green Bay reloads for another push in 2026
π» Chicago bolstering their defense
π: t.co/h1z8AyXcNF
His first offseason is gonna be rough. Atlanta has some cap space and some wiggle room they can create with simple restructures, but they have his five draft picks in this yearβs draft.
January 30, 2026 at 2:05 AM
His first offseason is gonna be rough. Atlanta has some cap space and some wiggle room they can create with simple restructures, but they have his five draft picks in this yearβs draft.
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
January 29, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
January 29, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
π The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
π Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
π¦ββ¬ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
β«οΈ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
After thinking about it, Iβd go with 1οΈβ£ for two reasons. First, he will be more situation proof and can be used in more down and distance combinations. Second, in todayβs NFL, teams are running the ball more, emphasizing the need for a better run defense.
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
January 29, 2026 at 1:54 AM
After thinking about it, Iβd go with 1οΈβ£ for two reasons. First, he will be more situation proof and can be used in more down and distance combinations. Second, in todayβs NFL, teams are running the ball more, emphasizing the need for a better run defense.
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
January 28, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1β£B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2β£A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
"Can't remember" is sending me
Updated list of Hall of Fame voters who have publicly confirmed they voted for Bill Belichick. The unconfirmed list includes those who haven't spoken or have only discussed the HOF process
January 28, 2026 at 1:17 PM
"Can't remember" is sending me
Just watched the Vecna origin story episode of Stranger Things
a man with glasses is surrounded by a glowing circle and the website pmitf.com is displayed below him
ALT: a man with glasses is surrounded by a glowing circle and the website pmitf.com is displayed below him
media.tenor.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Just watched the Vecna origin story episode of Stranger Things
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
January 27, 2026 at 2:53 PM
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
It's that time of year and even though there's still a game left,
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
January 27, 2026 at 5:57 PM
It's that time of year and even though there's still a game left,
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
I'm sure there are things about Brady's scheme that I'm not familiar with, but it once again feels like someone getting propped up for having Josh Allen as his quarterback instead of optimizing his use.
January 27, 2026 at 4:55 PM
I'm sure there are things about Brady's scheme that I'm not familiar with, but it once again feels like someone getting propped up for having Josh Allen as his quarterback instead of optimizing his use.
I recognize that the skill group hasn't been elite, but when this is your play-calling strategy with Josh Allen at quarterback I start to question your decision-making.
January 27, 2026 at 4:48 PM
I recognize that the skill group hasn't been elite, but when this is your play-calling strategy with Josh Allen at quarterback I start to question your decision-making.
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/afc-south-...
January 27, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/afc-south-...
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
January 27, 2026 at 2:53 PM
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
βοΈ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
π What do the Colts do at QB?
π€ Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
π How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
π‡οΈ
I know they haven't had a ton of draft capital to do so, but the Browns have drafted one offensive lineman in the top 100 in the last five drafts and now their entire OL is hitting free agency this offseason
January 27, 2026 at 3:04 AM
I know they haven't had a ton of draft capital to do so, but the Browns have drafted one offensive lineman in the top 100 in the last five drafts and now their entire OL is hitting free agency this offseason
Okay, there's a chance I was wrong! May not be the best heuristic, but here's win probability added for TDs and FGs compared to what the final total of the game is. So TDs become more valuable to winning as scoring rises, but the value of FGs stays pretty consistent regardless of the scoring.
January 27, 2026 at 2:49 AM
Okay, there's a chance I was wrong! May not be the best heuristic, but here's win probability added for TDs and FGs compared to what the final total of the game is. So TDs become more valuable to winning as scoring rises, but the value of FGs stays pretty consistent regardless of the scoring.
That, too! They can still lose in OT!
January 27, 2026 at 2:33 AM
That, too! They can still lose in OT!
You can't add 3 to DEN's score and say, "well, it would've gone into OT if they had kicked" because that changes the way both teams play with that score. But, if DEN knew it'd be so damn tough to move the ball in the second half, I'd want to be more aggressive going for it when all I need is a yard.
January 27, 2026 at 2:27 AM
You can't add 3 to DEN's score and say, "well, it would've gone into OT if they had kicked" because that changes the way both teams play with that score. But, if DEN knew it'd be so damn tough to move the ball in the second half, I'd want to be more aggressive going for it when all I need is a yard.
Maybe if I'm thinking about this wrong, but I've long thought that if a game is going to be a low scoring environment I would be incentivized to go for it more. When scoring is at a premium, 7 points is going to have a more highly-weighted value than 3 points.
Important data point on the Broncos 4th-and-1.
Knowing how weather turned out, easy to say scoring environment was going to be lower than normal.
But what did we know at the time? Heading into that play the live total at DraftKings was 38.5. As in, 31.5 more expected points to come.
Knowing how weather turned out, easy to say scoring environment was going to be lower than normal.
But what did we know at the time? Heading into that play the live total at DraftKings was 38.5. As in, 31.5 more expected points to come.
January 27, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Maybe if I'm thinking about this wrong, but I've long thought that if a game is going to be a low scoring environment I would be incentivized to go for it more. When scoring is at a premium, 7 points is going to have a more highly-weighted value than 3 points.
How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Rams
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
January 26, 2026 at 2:49 PM
How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Rams
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
How the game was won: Broncos vs. Patriots
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
January 26, 2026 at 2:20 PM
How the game was won: Broncos vs. Patriots
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
The balls to do that in year 2 in a conference championship. Sheesh.
January 26, 2026 at 2:11 PM
The balls to do that in year 2 in a conference championship. Sheesh.