Sam Hoppen
@samhoppen.bsky.social
NFL Data Scientist 📊| Fmr FantasyPros, Betsperts | #GoPackGo | Opinions are my own
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
Substack: https://samhoppen.substack.com/
His first offseason is gonna be rough. Atlanta has some cap space and some wiggle room they can create with simple restructures, but they have his five draft picks in this year’s draft.
January 30, 2026 at 2:05 AM
His first offseason is gonna be rough. Atlanta has some cap space and some wiggle room they can create with simple restructures, but they have his five draft picks in this year’s draft.
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
January 29, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
January 29, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Today's offseason preview is of the AFC North! I cover:
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
🟠 The gaping holes that Cleveland has at OL
🐅 Another defensive-centric offseason for Cincy
🐦⬛ How can Baltimore optimize Lamar's prime?
⚫️ Whether the Steelers should be in win-now mode
Link to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...
After thinking about it, I’d go with 1️⃣ for two reasons. First, he will be more situation proof and can be used in more down and distance combinations. Second, in today’s NFL, teams are running the ball more, emphasizing the need for a better run defense.
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
January 29, 2026 at 1:54 AM
After thinking about it, I’d go with 1️⃣ for two reasons. First, he will be more situation proof and can be used in more down and distance combinations. Second, in today’s NFL, teams are running the ball more, emphasizing the need for a better run defense.
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
January 28, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Interesting question for edge prospects (h/t Ben Fennell) - would you rather:
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
1⃣B+ Pass Rusher, B+ Run Defender
2⃣A+ Pass Rusher, C- Run Defender
Not a direct comp, but here's how edge defenders graded out via PFF in 2025.
Would you want someone like Sweat/Karlaftis or Hunter/Verse?
"Can't remember" is sending me
Updated list of Hall of Fame voters who have publicly confirmed they voted for Bill Belichick. The unconfirmed list includes those who haven't spoken or have only discussed the HOF process
January 28, 2026 at 1:17 PM
"Can't remember" is sending me
Just watched the Vecna origin story episode of Stranger Things
a man with glasses is surrounded by a glowing circle and the website pmitf.com is displayed below him
ALT: a man with glasses is surrounded by a glowing circle and the website pmitf.com is displayed below him
media.tenor.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Just watched the Vecna origin story episode of Stranger Things
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
January 27, 2026 at 2:53 PM
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
It's that time of year and even though there's still a game left,
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
January 27, 2026 at 5:57 PM
It's that time of year and even though there's still a game left,
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
@mikegolicjr.bsky.social has secured victory in the
@minakimes.bsky.social 2025 Team Draft. Huge pull getting both Super Bowl participants that late in the draft!
That's now back-to-back victories for Mike. Is a dynasty building??
I recognize that the skill group hasn't been elite, but when this is your play-calling strategy with Josh Allen at quarterback I start to question your decision-making.
January 27, 2026 at 4:48 PM
I recognize that the skill group hasn't been elite, but when this is your play-calling strategy with Josh Allen at quarterback I start to question your decision-making.
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
January 27, 2026 at 2:53 PM
In the next installation of my offseason preview series, I bring you the AFC South!
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
⚔️ Can the Titans surround Ward with more talent?
🐎 What do the Colts do at QB?
🤠 Does Houston have enough firepower on offense?
🐆 How does Jacksonville build off of its success in 2025?
🔗⤵️
I know they haven't had a ton of draft capital to do so, but the Browns have drafted one offensive lineman in the top 100 in the last five drafts and now their entire OL is hitting free agency this offseason
January 27, 2026 at 3:04 AM
I know they haven't had a ton of draft capital to do so, but the Browns have drafted one offensive lineman in the top 100 in the last five drafts and now their entire OL is hitting free agency this offseason
Maybe if I'm thinking about this wrong, but I've long thought that if a game is going to be a low scoring environment I would be incentivized to go for it more. When scoring is at a premium, 7 points is going to have a more highly-weighted value than 3 points.
Important data point on the Broncos 4th-and-1.
Knowing how weather turned out, easy to say scoring environment was going to be lower than normal.
But what did we know at the time? Heading into that play the live total at DraftKings was 38.5. As in, 31.5 more expected points to come.
Knowing how weather turned out, easy to say scoring environment was going to be lower than normal.
But what did we know at the time? Heading into that play the live total at DraftKings was 38.5. As in, 31.5 more expected points to come.
January 27, 2026 at 2:25 AM
Maybe if I'm thinking about this wrong, but I've long thought that if a game is going to be a low scoring environment I would be incentivized to go for it more. When scoring is at a premium, 7 points is going to have a more highly-weighted value than 3 points.
How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Rams
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
January 26, 2026 at 2:49 PM
How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Rams
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
Both passing attacks crushed it and neither defense really had an answer for the opposition. Just an incredible showing by both teams.
How the game was won: Broncos vs. Patriots
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
January 26, 2026 at 2:20 PM
How the game was won: Broncos vs. Patriots
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
Both defenses played really well, but the turnovers ultimately made the difference to give the Patriots the win
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
January 26, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:
Show me someone who picked a Seahawks-Pats Super Bowl matchup in the preseason because I want them to give me tomorrow’s lottery numbers as well
January 26, 2026 at 3:06 AM
Show me someone who picked a Seahawks-Pats Super Bowl matchup in the preseason because I want them to give me tomorrow’s lottery numbers as well
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
Riq the first to make it to McVay 💀💀💀
January 26, 2026 at 2:53 AM
Riq the first to make it to McVay 💀💀💀
I love the stones from the Seahawks to put the ball in Darnold’s hands and try to seal the win instead of just going the easy way out with a couple of runs. Hell yeah.
January 26, 2026 at 2:43 AM
I love the stones from the Seahawks to put the ball in Darnold’s hands and try to seal the win instead of just going the easy way out with a couple of runs. Hell yeah.
Reposted by Sam Hoppen
As long as he wants imo. You don’t like it? Go score next time
Horrible take. How long should this shithead be allowed to march up the Rams sideline, 6 inches from the coaches, bleating his nonsense?
January 26, 2026 at 2:06 AM
As long as he wants imo. You don’t like it? Go score next time
Rams vs. Seahawks this year
January 26, 2026 at 1:48 AM
Rams vs. Seahawks this year
Jake Bobo NFC championship appearance lmao
January 26, 2026 at 1:31 AM
Jake Bobo NFC championship appearance lmao
Releasing JSN from the backfield >>>>>>
January 26, 2026 at 1:05 AM
Releasing JSN from the backfield >>>>>>
Rams: We’re going to complete a pass
Nick Emmanwori:
Nick Emmanwori:
January 26, 2026 at 12:57 AM
Rams: We’re going to complete a pass
Nick Emmanwori:
Nick Emmanwori:
With the way Kenneth Walker has been playing lately, there’s a chance he gets the highest-paying RB deal in free agency this spring.
January 26, 2026 at 12:13 AM
With the way Kenneth Walker has been playing lately, there’s a chance he gets the highest-paying RB deal in free agency this spring.