Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
Pinned
Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
· Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
This is a good story and an interesting shift!
My annual 100-player MVP ballot is out tomorrow and in the first few years I probably averaged ~1 nickel on there. This year there are 5!
My annual 100-player MVP ballot is out tomorrow and in the first few years I probably averaged ~1 nickel on there. This year there are 5!
The most forward thinking defenses
in the NFL feature the nickel.
Talked with coaches like Jesse Minter about the rise of a position that was once an afterthought
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
in the NFL feature the nickel.
Talked with coaches like Jesse Minter about the rise of a position that was once an afterthought
www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...
The secret to great NFL defense in this era? Having a premium nickel
How players such as Nick Emmanwori, Kyle Hamilton, Derwin James and Cooper DeJean have made the nickel a valuable position.
www.nytimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:43 PM
This is a good story and an interesting shift!
My annual 100-player MVP ballot is out tomorrow and in the first few years I probably averaged ~1 nickel on there. This year there are 5!
My annual 100-player MVP ballot is out tomorrow and in the first few years I probably averaged ~1 nickel on there. This year there are 5!
Our model had go for it on 4th-and-8 and in. And a clear go on 4th-and-5 and in.
It was 4th-and-4.
It was 4th-and-4.
January 20, 2026 at 4:09 AM
Our model had go for it on 4th-and-8 and in. And a clear go on 4th-and-5 and in.
It was 4th-and-4.
It was 4th-and-4.
kicking to go up 6
January 20, 2026 at 4:07 AM
kicking to go up 6
Re: Bears go-for-2 decision, I think either option was very acceptable.
On one hand, definitely inclined to think a Ben Johnson play might be >48% and you don't have to move that needle far to make worth it.
On the other, we saw the benefit of PAT: teams are irrationally conservative...
On one hand, definitely inclined to think a Ben Johnson play might be >48% and you don't have to move that needle far to make worth it.
On the other, we saw the benefit of PAT: teams are irrationally conservative...
January 19, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Re: Bears go-for-2 decision, I think either option was very acceptable.
On one hand, definitely inclined to think a Ben Johnson play might be >48% and you don't have to move that needle far to make worth it.
On the other, we saw the benefit of PAT: teams are irrationally conservative...
On one hand, definitely inclined to think a Ben Johnson play might be >48% and you don't have to move that needle far to make worth it.
On the other, we saw the benefit of PAT: teams are irrationally conservative...
Reposted by Seth Walder
Dots on that Kam Curl INT in overtime.
(NGS)
(NGS)
January 19, 2026 at 2:56 AM
Dots on that Kam Curl INT in overtime.
(NGS)
(NGS)
Several minutes late here and I don't know what the wind direction situation is at the moment but:
First possession vs. second possession is so, so close in playoff OT that if one end is more favorable than the other the right answer very well might have been to play the wind.
First possession vs. second possession is so, so close in playoff OT that if one end is more favorable than the other the right answer very well might have been to play the wind.
January 19, 2026 at 2:48 AM
Several minutes late here and I don't know what the wind direction situation is at the moment but:
First possession vs. second possession is so, so close in playoff OT that if one end is more favorable than the other the right answer very well might have been to play the wind.
First possession vs. second possession is so, so close in playoff OT that if one end is more favorable than the other the right answer very well might have been to play the wind.
McVay's game management blunders looming large rn
January 19, 2026 at 2:38 AM
McVay's game management blunders looming large rn
OH MY GOD OH MY GOD OH
January 19, 2026 at 2:36 AM
OH MY GOD OH MY GOD OH
Rams should be calling timeout right now
January 19, 2026 at 2:33 AM
Rams should be calling timeout right now
Rams failed to take advantage. They should have passed the ball. And even if it goes incomplete in under 7 seconds, the 2 minute warning would have been burned on the punt!!
Hate that timeout at 2:07. Huge risk to waste two minute warning.
January 19, 2026 at 2:29 AM
Rams failed to take advantage. They should have passed the ball. And even if it goes incomplete in under 7 seconds, the 2 minute warning would have been burned on the punt!!
Hate that timeout at 2:07. Huge risk to waste two minute warning.
January 19, 2026 at 2:27 AM
Hate that timeout at 2:07. Huge risk to waste two minute warning.
Solidly an error here.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
January 19, 2026 at 2:01 AM
Solidly an error here.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
We've got this as a go on 4th-and-2.
January 19, 2026 at 1:56 AM
We've got this as a go on 4th-and-2.
From ESPN Research: The Bears have sent a DB rusher on 6 Matthew Stafford dropbacks so far tonight.
On those plays: 3 sacks, 3 incompletions.
On those plays: 3 sacks, 3 incompletions.
January 19, 2026 at 1:42 AM
From ESPN Research: The Bears have sent a DB rusher on 6 Matthew Stafford dropbacks so far tonight.
On those plays: 3 sacks, 3 incompletions.
On those plays: 3 sacks, 3 incompletions.
Green light go here
January 19, 2026 at 12:11 AM
Green light go here
Reposted by Seth Walder
“take the points, make it a one-score game!”
if they hadn’t done that, it might be a one-score game *now*.
doesn’t matter how many points you lose by
if they hadn’t done that, it might be a one-score game *now*.
doesn’t matter how many points you lose by
not gonna get many more scoring opportunities
That Texans field goal was a mistake.
January 18, 2026 at 11:16 PM
“take the points, make it a one-score game!”
if they hadn’t done that, it might be a one-score game *now*.
doesn’t matter how many points you lose by
if they hadn’t done that, it might be a one-score game *now*.
doesn’t matter how many points you lose by
Reposted by Seth Walder
In a game where you're struggling to move the ball and points are at a premium, you should be *more* aggressive going for it when you're close to the end zone. You can't count on getting many chances to score a TD!
Massive difference between breakeven and conversion estimate. AND high leverage.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
January 18, 2026 at 10:09 PM
In a game where you're struggling to move the ball and points are at a premium, you should be *more* aggressive going for it when you're close to the end zone. You can't count on getting many chances to score a TD!
Massive difference between breakeven and conversion estimate. AND high leverage.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
January 18, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Massive difference between breakeven and conversion estimate. AND high leverage.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
That's an unforgivable kick decision. Horrific.
January 18, 2026 at 10:07 PM
That's an unforgivable kick decision. Horrific.
That's such a waste to tush push on 3rd and 1. Take a shot, you're down 11!
January 18, 2026 at 10:03 PM
That's such a waste to tush push on 3rd and 1. Take a shot, you're down 11!
Reposted by Seth Walder
That's a go from ESPN analytics
January 18, 2026 at 8:28 PM
That's a go from ESPN analytics
My sack model's favorite bet today is Montez Sweat under 0.25 sacks (-136).
Tackle model's favorite is a fun alt line: Cobie Durant 5+ tackles (+980)
Tackle model's favorite is a fun alt line: Cobie Durant 5+ tackles (+980)
Any props for today?
January 18, 2026 at 6:59 PM
My sack model's favorite bet today is Montez Sweat under 0.25 sacks (-136).
Tackle model's favorite is a fun alt line: Cobie Durant 5+ tackles (+980)
Tackle model's favorite is a fun alt line: Cobie Durant 5+ tackles (+980)