Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Thanksgiving skeet.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in DVOA against zone coverage.
Remember early in the season when the Cowboys were basically playing nothing but zone?
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in DVOA against zone coverage.
Remember early in the season when the Cowboys were basically playing nothing but zone?
November 25, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Thanksgiving skeet.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in DVOA against zone coverage.
Remember early in the season when the Cowboys were basically playing nothing but zone?
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in DVOA against zone coverage.
Remember early in the season when the Cowboys were basically playing nothing but zone?
Texans allow a league-worst 10.0 yards per carry on scrambles... if you can get away from their pass rushers and get past the line of scrimmage.
November 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Texans allow a league-worst 10.0 yards per carry on scrambles... if you can get away from their pass rushers and get past the line of scrimmage.
I was curious, how rare is it to be No. 1 in both offensive and defensive DVOA like the Rams are now.
It's VERY rare.
Since 1978, these are the only teams to achieve this after Week 10 or later.
1994 Cowboys Wk 12-13
2001 Rams Wk 16-17
2007 Pats Wk 11
2014 Broncos Wk 10, 13
2025 Rams Wk 12
It's VERY rare.
Since 1978, these are the only teams to achieve this after Week 10 or later.
1994 Cowboys Wk 12-13
2001 Rams Wk 16-17
2007 Pats Wk 11
2014 Broncos Wk 10, 13
2025 Rams Wk 12
November 25, 2025 at 9:50 PM
I was curious, how rare is it to be No. 1 in both offensive and defensive DVOA like the Rams are now.
It's VERY rare.
Since 1978, these are the only teams to achieve this after Week 10 or later.
1994 Cowboys Wk 12-13
2001 Rams Wk 16-17
2007 Pats Wk 11
2014 Broncos Wk 10, 13
2025 Rams Wk 12
It's VERY rare.
Since 1978, these are the only teams to achieve this after Week 10 or later.
1994 Cowboys Wk 12-13
2001 Rams Wk 16-17
2007 Pats Wk 11
2014 Broncos Wk 10, 13
2025 Rams Wk 12
Steelers are 16th in DVOA on offense, 15th on defense, and 14th on special teams.
It all seems so awesomely mediocre in every way but their splits are not as balanced, they rank better in run offense and pass defense than pass offense and run defense.
It all seems so awesomely mediocre in every way but their splits are not as balanced, they rank better in run offense and pass defense than pass offense and run defense.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Steelers are 16th in DVOA on offense, 15th on defense, and 14th on special teams.
It all seems so awesomely mediocre in every way but their splits are not as balanced, they rank better in run offense and pass defense than pass offense and run defense.
It all seems so awesomely mediocre in every way but their splits are not as balanced, they rank better in run offense and pass defense than pass offense and run defense.
New DVOA ratings and commentary, as the Rams move to the top spot in both offense and defense. They are the No. 10 DVOA team through 11 games since 1978.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
Week 12 DVOA Ratings: Rams Move to No. 1
The Rams are now No. 1 on both offense and defense after a dominating victory over Tampa Bay.
ftnfantasy.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
New DVOA ratings and commentary, as the Rams move to the top spot in both offense and defense. They are the No. 10 DVOA team through 11 games since 1978.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated for MNF. I added Rams-Broncos to the Super Bowls list and we have that one now 8.9% of the time. Did you know there really aren't any well-known players who played multiple years for both franchises?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:03 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated for MNF. I added Rams-Broncos to the Super Bowls list and we have that one now 8.9% of the time. Did you know there really aren't any well-known players who played multiple years for both franchises?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Quick Reads is now updated with MNF, plus I've made the table of the top 10 QB on passes up the middle free for non-FTN subscribers. What's Jalen Hurts doing on there?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
Week 12 Quick Reads: Dak Flourishes in the Middle
Dak Prescott was the top quarterback of the week, and passes up the middle were a big part of it. Plus, the other best and worst players of Week 12.
ftnfantasy.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Quick Reads is now updated with MNF, plus I've made the table of the top 10 QB on passes up the middle free for non-FTN subscribers. What's Jalen Hurts doing on there?
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
I love Bill's Top 766 so much but I just wanted Brown to get over 200 this year and it didn't happen.
Still: RHODE ISLAND STATE CHAMPS.
Still: RHODE ISLAND STATE CHAMPS.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 14
UMass -0.5 Friends (NAIA) 😳😬
Lehigh -2.5 Purdue
Harding: 9th in the MAC
North Central: 8th in the MVFC
Michigan -120.5 Madonna (Mich.)
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
UMass -0.5 Friends (NAIA) 😳😬
Lehigh -2.5 Purdue
Harding: 9th in the MAC
North Central: 8th in the MVFC
Michigan -120.5 Madonna (Mich.)
Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
I love Bill's Top 766 so much but I just wanted Brown to get over 200 this year and it didn't happen.
Still: RHODE ISLAND STATE CHAMPS.
Still: RHODE ISLAND STATE CHAMPS.
I got a lot of responses like this about all the different players and again, the biggest problem with the NFL HOF is that they don't put enough guys in each year considering that there are 22 guys on the field at a time.
Kevin Williams needs more love. 5x first-team all-pro, and I believe it’s his first time being a semifinalist.
November 25, 2025 at 2:37 PM
I got a lot of responses like this about all the different players and again, the biggest problem with the NFL HOF is that they don't put enough guys in each year considering that there are 22 guys on the field at a time.
The fact that 2/3 of the finalists are offense is either revealing about the process or revealing about the backlog at wide receiver.
The full list of semifinalists:
November 25, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The fact that 2/3 of the finalists are offense is either revealing about the process or revealing about the backlog at wide receiver.
I know people identify Rodney Harrison with the Patriots now but you also have to understand how good he was with the Chargers from 1994 to 2002. That 1998 Chargers defense was awesome despite a terrible offense.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame has revealed 26 modern-era semifinalists for the Class of 2026:
Rodney Harrison make the cut.
Rodney Harrison make the cut.
a man in a suit and tie sitting in front of a framed certificate of authenticity
ALT: a man in a suit and tie sitting in front of a framed certificate of authenticity
media.tenor.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:15 PM
I know people identify Rodney Harrison with the Patriots now but you also have to understand how good he was with the Chargers from 1994 to 2002. That 1998 Chargers defense was awesome despite a terrible offense.
I remember Patriots fans chanting for Bailey Zappe instead of Mac Jones, oh how the turntables have turned.
I've seen this crowd chant "We Want [David!] Carr" before, I know the "We Want Mac" chant is close
November 25, 2025 at 2:07 AM
I remember Patriots fans chanting for Bailey Zappe instead of Mac Jones, oh how the turntables have turned.
samdarnoldseeingghosts.jpg only make it Brock Purdy
November 25, 2025 at 2:05 AM
samdarnoldseeingghosts.jpg only make it Brock Purdy
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
We at FTN have some amazing things coming for #NBASky from our charting team that's been watching every play since the start of last season.
More coming soon!
More coming soon!
November 25, 2025 at 12:20 AM
We at FTN have some amazing things coming for #NBASky from our charting team that's been watching every play since the start of last season.
More coming soon!
More coming soon!
The NY Giants have allowed 6.04 yards per carry, not including scrambles or aborted plays.
No other team since 1978 allowed more than 5.5 yards per carry in its first 12 games.
No other team since 1978 allowed more than 5.5 yards per carry in its first 12 games.
November 24, 2025 at 7:34 PM
The NY Giants have allowed 6.04 yards per carry, not including scrambles or aborted plays.
No other team since 1978 allowed more than 5.5 yards per carry in its first 12 games.
No other team since 1978 allowed more than 5.5 yards per carry in its first 12 games.
New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of Week 12, plus a discussion of how Dak Prescott is getting it done with passes to the middle of the field.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
Week 12 Quick Reads: Dak Flourishes in the Middle
Dak Prescott was the top quarterback of the week, and passes up the middle were a big part of it. Plus, the other best and worst players of Week 12.
ftnfantasy.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:14 PM
New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of Week 12, plus a discussion of how Dak Prescott is getting it done with passes to the middle of the field.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-...
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Monday Night Football DVOA Breakdown
🏟️ Pathers @ 49ers
Powered by StatsHub: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats
🏟️ Pathers @ 49ers
Powered by StatsHub: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats
November 24, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Monday Night Football DVOA Breakdown
🏟️ Pathers @ 49ers
Powered by StatsHub: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats
🏟️ Pathers @ 49ers
Powered by StatsHub: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats
New Schatz and Tanier podcast coming in 5 minutes! Come discuss blown leads with us as well as the Rams. (Those are two different things!)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr22...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr22...
Week 12 NFL Review and Panthers-49ers Preview
YouTube video by FTN
www.youtube.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
New Schatz and Tanier podcast coming in 5 minutes! Come discuss blown leads with us as well as the Rams. (Those are two different things!)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr22...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr22...
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated with Rams as clear SB favorites. I had to make a guess on the Baker Mayfield injury, erred on guessing he won't be out long since it's the non-throwing shoulder.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
ftnfantasy.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:34 PM
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated with Rams as clear SB favorites. I had to make a guess on the Baker Mayfield injury, erred on guessing he won't be out long since it's the non-throwing shoulder.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
Despite a reasonable day against the Patriots, the Bengals were able to barely hold on to their "lead" as the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA.
I'll be writing about this a bit for ESPN this week.
I'll be writing about this a bit for ESPN this week.
November 24, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Despite a reasonable day against the Patriots, the Bengals were able to barely hold on to their "lead" as the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA.
I'll be writing about this a bit for ESPN this week.
I'll be writing about this a bit for ESPN this week.
28th in defensive DVOA despite that defensive line.
NEWS: The Giants have fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, per source.
Sunday, New York lost its fifth road game this season in which they held a 10+ point lead. Bowen spent the past two seasons leading the Giants’ defense after three years in Tennessee.
Sunday, New York lost its fifth road game this season in which they held a 10+ point lead. Bowen spent the past two seasons leading the Giants’ defense after three years in Tennessee.
November 24, 2025 at 2:08 PM
28th in defensive DVOA despite that defensive line.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Los Angeles Rams are the new No. 1 team in DVOA.
In fact, the Rams are very slightly now No. 1 on both offense (over Colts) and defense (over Texans).
With the current version of DVOA, the only team to be No. 1 in both for a full season was... the 2001 Rams.
In fact, the Rams are very slightly now No. 1 on both offense (over Colts) and defense (over Texans).
With the current version of DVOA, the only team to be No. 1 in both for a full season was... the 2001 Rams.
November 24, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, your Los Angeles Rams are the new No. 1 team in DVOA.
In fact, the Rams are very slightly now No. 1 on both offense (over Colts) and defense (over Texans).
With the current version of DVOA, the only team to be No. 1 in both for a full season was... the 2001 Rams.
In fact, the Rams are very slightly now No. 1 on both offense (over Colts) and defense (over Texans).
With the current version of DVOA, the only team to be No. 1 in both for a full season was... the 2001 Rams.
There's only one thing that could stop the Rams right now, and that is a magazine profile of Sean McVay written by Olivia Nuzzi.
November 24, 2025 at 4:10 AM
There's only one thing that could stop the Rams right now, and that is a magazine profile of Sean McVay written by Olivia Nuzzi.
Shouldn’t it be time for Handsome Jimmy G?
November 24, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Shouldn’t it be time for Handsome Jimmy G?
I drew a map of Canada... Oh Canada... with your face sketched on it twice...
“One day [trump] sat on the plane with me. We were talking about Syria, and he drew a map of the Mideast for me. And it was a perfect map,” Kennedy told me. “Then he drew in the troop strength of each country, and also the troop strength on various borders.”
NEW: When RFK Jr. first told Trump that Tylenol might cause autism, the president wanted to tweet out a warning. Kennedy told him not to do that. There was nuance, and the drug companies would push back. “I don’t give a shit about that,” Trump responded. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
November 24, 2025 at 3:44 AM
I drew a map of Canada... Oh Canada... with your face sketched on it twice...