Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1h

Snoop Huntley, I believe.

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2h

The 49ers-Bucs game is between two very similar teams.

Both teams are 4-1 with close wins but have negative DVOA, but were projected to be better than this.

Both teams dealing with a ton of offensive injuries.

Both teams better passing than rushing, and better on defense vs. the run this year.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2h

Out of curiosity, I ran a playoff sim as if Lamar Jackson never returns.

Playoff odds are currently Steelers 66%, Ravens 56%

With no Lamar return, they would be Steelers 78%, Ravens 23%

(I approximate that Cooper Rush would not be as bad as he was Sunday all year long!)

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2h

Yes, and that includes me, and it also includes the Colts.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2h

I've been doing weekly picks based on DVOA as part of a deal that has FTN content running on Yahoo! Sports. Here are this week's picks.

sports.yahoo.com/article/aaro...

Aaron Schatz’ Week 6 2025 NFL Picks

If you like favorites, you're trying to rebound from a wild week with big losers including Kansas City, Buffalo, and the Los Angeles Rams. But one week isn't going to stop my DVOA-based formula from p...

sports.yahoo.com

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 2h

We still have the Chiefs making the playoffs in 58% of our simulations if they lose to the Lions Sunday night, dropping to 2-4.

They win the division 29% of the time after a loss to the Lions.

ftnfantasy.com/dvoa-playoff...

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX

NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

ftnfantasy.com

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 4h

A.J. Brown's Open Scores per ESPN Analytics:

2021: 99 (1st)
2022: 92 (3rd)
2023: 82 (5th)
2024: 91 (1st)
2025: 53 (62nd)

Is it possible that A.J. Brown is in fact not "Open a Lot" anymore @sethwalder.bsky.social?

Matt Higgins @matthiggins80.bsky.social · 5h

#Giants' Brian Daboll Takes Shot at #Eagles: A.J. Brown Is 'Open a Lot'

Giants' Brian Daboll Takes Shot at Eagles: A.J. Brown Is 'Open a Lot'

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll is adding fuel to the fire over A.J. Brown's issues with the Philadelphia Eagles.

sportsnaut.com

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 6h

If conservatives want to suggest an actually popular musical artist who better fits their tastes and isn't 80 years old, have they never heard of Morgan Wallen?

Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 6h

who should the NFL choose for its halftime show: Bad Bunny, who sold out basically every major arena in the country last year, or Lee Greenwood, whose current tour features the following dates

leegreenwood.com
Fri, OCT 17
Niswonger Performing Arts Center of
Northwest Ohio
Van Wert, OH
Sat, OCT 18
Ohio Star Theater at Dutch Valley
Sugarcreek, OH
Fri, OCT 24
Rayne Drop Inn Il
Marion Center, PA
Sat, OCT 25
State Theatre Center For the Arts
Uniontown, PA

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

New at @ftnfantasy.com, @brykno.bsky.social breaks down all seven 4-1 teams from the Lions (1st in DVOA) to the Bucs (18th in DVOA).

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/breaking...

Breaking Down the 4-1 Teams, from Bucs to Lions

Seven teams are 4-1, but they range from No. 1 to No. 18 in DVOA. Bryan Knowles breaks down all seven.

ftnfantasy.com

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

Baltimore past schedule: 15.4% (2)
Baltimore future schedule: -10.1% (29)

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

Thanks to @brykno.bsky.social for pointing this out to me.

Now that the NFL has made the AAFC stats into official NFL records, the 1972 Dolphins are no longer the only undefeated team in NFL history.

1948 Browns!

www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/19...

1948 Cleveland Browns Rosters, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 1948 Cleveland Browns Roster, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees, Injury Reports and more on Pro-Football-Reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

Yes, one of the toughest schedules after that game, average 7.6% DVOA.

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

The flip to the Patriots schedule is the Vikings, at least for the rest of the year.

Past Vikings schedule averaged -14.5% DVOA
Future Vikings schedule averages +14.0% DVOA

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 8h

Remember this from a week ago?

The Patriots' schedule strength is now at -17.0% average DVOA of opponents, which would be the easiest schedule ever.

This will change as the season goes on, especially once Lamar Jackson returns for the Ravens.

But boy oh boy is their schedule easy.

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 5d

Here's a table with the weakest schedules including the Patriots and Bills, full-season schedule based on DVOA through Week 4.

NE has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (BUFx2).

BUF has only 2 games against teams currently in the DVOA Top 12 (KC, PHI).

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 9h

Packers were 11-5 the year before! Not that unexpected.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 9h

Love this piece by @espnbillc.bsky.social, the kind of historical stuff I like to do in the NFL. I think everyone is familiar with the NFL teams that would be on a similar list. 1999 Rams No. 1.

www.espn.com/college-foot...

The 2000 Sooners and 19 other unlikely champions

OU's 2000 title team came out of nowhere to win it all. Honoring their 25th anniversary, we look at other surprising champs.

www.espn.com

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

Quirky Research @quirkyresearch.bsky.social · 1d

Answers:

1) Jose Cortez kicked for the 1999 Giants, 2002 Washingtons, 2005 Cowboys, and 2005 Eagles.

2) Quarterback Hunter Enis played for the 1960 Dallas Texans (now the Chiefs), the 1961 San Diego Chargers, the 1962 Broncos, and the 1962 Oakland Raiders in the then-AFL West.

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

Quirky Research @quirkyresearch.bsky.social · 1d

Impossible trivia: There are two players in NFL history who have played a game for all four franchises in one of the current divisions. Who are they?

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

I was asked this and figured I would broadcast to everyone.

Has a 2-3 team ever made the Super Bowl? Yes.

Since 1978:
1980 Raiders
1985 Patriots
2001 Patriots

Also, the 1987 Broncos started 2-2-1 if you don't count strikebreaker games.

No 1-4 or 0-5 team has, lots of 3-2 teams have.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

Since 1978, three 2-3 teams have made the Super Bowl.

1980 Raiders
1985 Patriots
2001 Patriots

Also, the 1987 Broncos were 2-2-1 if you don't count strikebreaker games.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

The Texans are not because of close games, rather because of one very huge game (this week over the Ravens).

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

With all the wild close games, we have a lot of these tables where current teams are very good or bad among teams with the same W-L record.

Chiefs are 5th among 2-3 teams since 1978, Texans 10th.

New DVOA commentary: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-d...

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 1d

I'm doubt that Joe Flacco makes the Bengals as a contender with their record and defense. But in support of the trade, Flacco's EPA is anchored by 4 of his 6 INTs that weren't his bad plays.

- 2 were dropped receiver deflections
- 1 was an end-of-half Hail Mary
- 1 came after a receiver slipped

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

I don't know but I'm going to guess the answer is yes.

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 1d

OK, but I don't think this saves the Bengals season. Their defense just isn't good enough to survive with an average offense.

NFL Daily News @fantasynflnews.bsky.social · 1d

Rap: Joe Flacco traded to the Bengals.

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