Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Fun at halftime.
Turns out Panthers-Rams actually had the biggest gap in regular-season DVOA between playoff opponents, ever.
Excuse an error on the table, 2011 Broncos-Steelers was in Denver not Pittsburgh.
Turns out Panthers-Rams actually had the biggest gap in regular-season DVOA between playoff opponents, ever.
Excuse an error on the table, 2011 Broncos-Steelers was in Denver not Pittsburgh.
January 11, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Fun at halftime.
Turns out Panthers-Rams actually had the biggest gap in regular-season DVOA between playoff opponents, ever.
Excuse an error on the table, 2011 Broncos-Steelers was in Denver not Pittsburgh.
Turns out Panthers-Rams actually had the biggest gap in regular-season DVOA between playoff opponents, ever.
Excuse an error on the table, 2011 Broncos-Steelers was in Denver not Pittsburgh.
I want to share the Rams week-to-week graph. The Rams ended up with a week-to-week variance of just 4.2% DVOA, which is the sixth-lowest variance of any team since 1978.
Even when they didn't seem consistent, like in the first half of Cardinals Week 18, the game ended up the same as the others.
Even when they didn't seem consistent, like in the first half of Cardinals Week 18, the game ended up the same as the others.
January 8, 2026 at 2:24 PM
I want to share the Rams week-to-week graph. The Rams ended up with a week-to-week variance of just 4.2% DVOA, which is the sixth-lowest variance of any team since 1978.
Even when they didn't seem consistent, like in the first half of Cardinals Week 18, the game ended up the same as the others.
Even when they didn't seem consistent, like in the first half of Cardinals Week 18, the game ended up the same as the others.
I was worried this table would mostly be teams that sat starters at the end of the year, but it is not. Most of these teams also failed in the playoffs. 1990 Giants had to get used to Hostetler at QB. 2008 Cardinals had a surprising playoff run.
January 7, 2026 at 9:39 PM
I was worried this table would mostly be teams that sat starters at the end of the year, but it is not. Most of these teams also failed in the playoffs. 1990 Giants had to get used to Hostetler at QB. 2008 Cardinals had a surprising playoff run.
Here is a list of playoff teams with the biggest gap between total and weighted DVOA. 2025 Patriots are No. 1.
These teams were hot entering the playoffs but you have to go down a bit to find one that made the Super Bowl.
2025 Bears would be at 8.9% difference. (2/2)
These teams were hot entering the playoffs but you have to go down a bit to find one that made the Super Bowl.
2025 Bears would be at 8.9% difference. (2/2)
January 7, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Here is a list of playoff teams with the biggest gap between total and weighted DVOA. 2025 Patriots are No. 1.
These teams were hot entering the playoffs but you have to go down a bit to find one that made the Super Bowl.
2025 Bears would be at 8.9% difference. (2/2)
These teams were hot entering the playoffs but you have to go down a bit to find one that made the Super Bowl.
2025 Bears would be at 8.9% difference. (2/2)
I just noticed this, but the 2025 Patriots have the biggest gap between total and weighted DVOA of any playoff team since 1978.
Weighted DVOA lowers the weight of earlier games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now. (1/2)
Weighted DVOA lowers the weight of earlier games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now. (1/2)
January 7, 2026 at 7:12 PM
I just noticed this, but the 2025 Patriots have the biggest gap between total and weighted DVOA of any playoff team since 1978.
Weighted DVOA lowers the weight of earlier games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now. (1/2)
Weighted DVOA lowers the weight of earlier games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now. (1/2)
I don't think I've run this one yet on social media. Here are the worst DVOA teams to make the playoffs.
5 of the bottom 6 (not counting Carolina) won their first playoff game! None got past the Divisional Round.
5 of the bottom 6 (not counting Carolina) won their first playoff game! None got past the Divisional Round.
January 7, 2026 at 3:56 PM
I don't think I've run this one yet on social media. Here are the worst DVOA teams to make the playoffs.
5 of the bottom 6 (not counting Carolina) won their first playoff game! None got past the Divisional Round.
5 of the bottom 6 (not counting Carolina) won their first playoff game! None got past the Divisional Round.
Here's the full table of average opposing pass defense by EPA per play and DVOA.
January 5, 2026 at 6:22 PM
Here's the full table of average opposing pass defense by EPA per play and DVOA.
The Dallas Cowboys finished with the No. 4 worst defense in the history of DVOA.
The Cincinnati Bengals were on this list for much of the season but improved in December.
The Cincinnati Bengals were on this list for much of the season but improved in December.
January 5, 2026 at 5:02 PM
The Dallas Cowboys finished with the No. 4 worst defense in the history of DVOA.
The Cincinnati Bengals were on this list for much of the season but improved in December.
The Cincinnati Bengals were on this list for much of the season but improved in December.
The Seattle Seahawks finished with one of the best defenses in the history of DVOA.
How about those mid-80s Bears for consistency?
How about those mid-80s Bears for consistency?
January 5, 2026 at 5:01 PM
The Seattle Seahawks finished with one of the best defenses in the history of DVOA.
How about those mid-80s Bears for consistency?
How about those mid-80s Bears for consistency?
OK, @miketanier.bsky.social asks for this one, so here's the final list of the easiest schedules by average DVOA of opponent.
As I've said, note that the top two teams here made the Super Bowl despite beating up on easy schedules.
As I've said, note that the top two teams here made the Super Bowl despite beating up on easy schedules.
January 5, 2026 at 4:53 PM
OK, @miketanier.bsky.social asks for this one, so here's the final list of the easiest schedules by average DVOA of opponent.
As I've said, note that the top two teams here made the Super Bowl despite beating up on easy schedules.
As I've said, note that the top two teams here made the Super Bowl despite beating up on easy schedules.
Take out special teams, and the Jets would have the third-worst DVOA ever behind only the 2005 49ers (who somehow won four close games) and the 1991 Colts. (4/4)
January 5, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Take out special teams, and the Jets would have the third-worst DVOA ever behind only the 2005 49ers (who somehow won four close games) and the 1991 Colts. (4/4)
The Jets ended up with the second-worst pass defense DVOA ever, and that's not even accounting for the fact that they faced the Bills backups and not starters in Week 18. (3/4)
January 5, 2026 at 3:37 PM
The Jets ended up with the second-worst pass defense DVOA ever, and that's not even accounting for the fact that they faced the Bills backups and not starters in Week 18. (3/4)
Jets special teams. Note that the Seahawks fell off this list with a bad special teams game in Week 18. (2/4)
January 5, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Jets special teams. Note that the Seahawks fell off this list with a bad special teams game in Week 18. (2/4)
The Indianapolis Colts had the highest DVOA ever for a team with a losing record.
A crazy good first two months, and then a crazy collapse.
A crazy good first two months, and then a crazy collapse.
January 5, 2026 at 3:27 PM
The Indianapolis Colts had the highest DVOA ever for a team with a losing record.
A crazy good first two months, and then a crazy collapse.
A crazy good first two months, and then a crazy collapse.
The Seahawks and Rams finished among the top 10 DVOA teams since 1978. Will they have more playoff success than other recent teams with surprisingly strong regular seasons?
All DVOA numbers now updated at FTN Fantasy: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
All DVOA numbers now updated at FTN Fantasy: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
January 5, 2026 at 3:16 PM
The Seahawks and Rams finished among the top 10 DVOA teams since 1978. Will they have more playoff success than other recent teams with surprisingly strong regular seasons?
All DVOA numbers now updated at FTN Fantasy: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
All DVOA numbers now updated at FTN Fantasy: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
The Rams finished with the best Adjusted Line Yards figure in 30 years. This stat measures blocking by cutting runs at specific distances to separate blocking from the RB in the open field.
Bills/Bears also historically good.
All three teams better in ALY than actual RB yards/carry.
Bills/Bears also historically good.
All three teams better in ALY than actual RB yards/carry.
January 5, 2026 at 2:37 PM
The Rams finished with the best Adjusted Line Yards figure in 30 years. This stat measures blocking by cutting runs at specific distances to separate blocking from the RB in the open field.
Bills/Bears also historically good.
All three teams better in ALY than actual RB yards/carry.
Bills/Bears also historically good.
All three teams better in ALY than actual RB yards/carry.
Cleveland's 20-18 win over the Bengals yesterday was the No. 6 biggest "Reverse PGWE" win since 1978.
Post-Game Win Expectancy is a metric that looks at how often we would expect a team to win given the underlying game stats.
Browns should win 1.1% of the time.
Post-Game Win Expectancy is a metric that looks at how often we would expect a team to win given the underlying game stats.
Browns should win 1.1% of the time.
January 5, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Cleveland's 20-18 win over the Bengals yesterday was the No. 6 biggest "Reverse PGWE" win since 1978.
Post-Game Win Expectancy is a metric that looks at how often we would expect a team to win given the underlying game stats.
Browns should win 1.1% of the time.
Post-Game Win Expectancy is a metric that looks at how often we would expect a team to win given the underlying game stats.
Browns should win 1.1% of the time.
Halftime, here's an updated version of a table I've run a couple of times. This is team passes per sack for the best sack seasons since 1982. Garrett still ends up on top but not as big a gap as there was before the last two weeks.
January 4, 2026 at 10:52 PM
Halftime, here's an updated version of a table I've run a couple of times. This is team passes per sack for the best sack seasons since 1982. Garrett still ends up on top but not as big a gap as there was before the last two weeks.
I'll update this tomorrow but here's the table of the worst DVOA ever IF we didn't count special teams.
January 4, 2026 at 10:44 PM
I'll update this tomorrow but here's the table of the worst DVOA ever IF we didn't count special teams.
Two week-to-week graphics in preparation for the NFC South Maybe-Championship.
The Bucs have hit the skids.
The Panthers season is drunk.
Green line is five-week average.
The Bucs have hit the skids.
The Panthers season is drunk.
Green line is five-week average.
December 30, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Two week-to-week graphics in preparation for the NFC South Maybe-Championship.
The Bucs have hit the skids.
The Panthers season is drunk.
Green line is five-week average.
The Bucs have hit the skids.
The Panthers season is drunk.
Green line is five-week average.
Comparing the Chiefs to the best 6-10 teams by DVOA.
The best team by far, the 1990 Chargers, imploded the next year. (The 1991 Chargers were 2-8 in close games.)
But most of the teams on this list had winning records the following season.
The best team by far, the 1990 Chargers, imploded the next year. (The 1991 Chargers were 2-8 in close games.)
But most of the teams on this list had winning records the following season.
December 29, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Comparing the Chiefs to the best 6-10 teams by DVOA.
The best team by far, the 1990 Chargers, imploded the next year. (The 1991 Chargers were 2-8 in close games.)
But most of the teams on this list had winning records the following season.
The best team by far, the 1990 Chargers, imploded the next year. (The 1991 Chargers were 2-8 in close games.)
But most of the teams on this list had winning records the following season.
Comparing the Lions and Colts to the best 8-8 teams by DVOA.
The 2011 Eagles and 2019 Cowboys collapsed the next year, but three of the teams on this list made the Super Bowl the following season.
The 2011 Eagles and 2019 Cowboys collapsed the next year, but three of the teams on this list made the Super Bowl the following season.
December 29, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Comparing the Lions and Colts to the best 8-8 teams by DVOA.
The 2011 Eagles and 2019 Cowboys collapsed the next year, but three of the teams on this list made the Super Bowl the following season.
The 2011 Eagles and 2019 Cowboys collapsed the next year, but three of the teams on this list made the Super Bowl the following season.
The Raiders took a running back 6th overall so they could finish with one of the least efficient run offenses ever. (It's mostly not his fault.)
Yes, the 1986 Patriots went 11-5 despite 2.9 yards per carry.
Note: This is @joshdubowap.bsky.social bait.
Yes, the 1986 Patriots went 11-5 despite 2.9 yards per carry.
Note: This is @joshdubowap.bsky.social bait.
December 29, 2025 at 7:38 PM
The Raiders took a running back 6th overall so they could finish with one of the least efficient run offenses ever. (It's mostly not his fault.)
Yes, the 1986 Patriots went 11-5 despite 2.9 yards per carry.
Note: This is @joshdubowap.bsky.social bait.
Yes, the 1986 Patriots went 11-5 despite 2.9 yards per carry.
Note: This is @joshdubowap.bsky.social bait.
After Drake Maye's huge game yesterday, the Jets now rank as the No. 5 worst pass defense of the DVOA era (since 1978) and the worst since 1999.
December 29, 2025 at 6:26 PM
After Drake Maye's huge game yesterday, the Jets now rank as the No. 5 worst pass defense of the DVOA era (since 1978) and the worst since 1999.
Here's an update on where the Patriots schedule strength will end up based on DVOA of opponents, including Miami next week.
This doesn't mean the Pats are out of it. Look at the Top 5 other teams.
1) made Super Bowl
2) won Super Bowl
4) won in WC
5) lost in WC (strike year)
6) made NFC CG
This doesn't mean the Pats are out of it. Look at the Top 5 other teams.
1) made Super Bowl
2) won Super Bowl
4) won in WC
5) lost in WC (strike year)
6) made NFC CG
December 29, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Here's an update on where the Patriots schedule strength will end up based on DVOA of opponents, including Miami next week.
This doesn't mean the Pats are out of it. Look at the Top 5 other teams.
1) made Super Bowl
2) won Super Bowl
4) won in WC
5) lost in WC (strike year)
6) made NFC CG
This doesn't mean the Pats are out of it. Look at the Top 5 other teams.
1) made Super Bowl
2) won Super Bowl
4) won in WC
5) lost in WC (strike year)
6) made NFC CG