Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
Our model put the breakeven point to justify going for 2 at 47.8%.
And it estimated the Bears chance of conversion at...47.8%.
And it estimated the Bears chance of conversion at...47.8%.
January 19, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Our model put the breakeven point to justify going for 2 at 47.8%.
And it estimated the Bears chance of conversion at...47.8%.
And it estimated the Bears chance of conversion at...47.8%.
...when tied.
The Rams had the ball with 13 seconds and two timeouts and just kneeled out the clock.
They would not have done that if they were down 1 point.
Nor should they have tied, but they did.
The Rams had the ball with 13 seconds and two timeouts and just kneeled out the clock.
They would not have done that if they were down 1 point.
Nor should they have tied, but they did.
January 19, 2026 at 3:29 PM
...when tied.
The Rams had the ball with 13 seconds and two timeouts and just kneeled out the clock.
They would not have done that if they were down 1 point.
Nor should they have tied, but they did.
The Rams had the ball with 13 seconds and two timeouts and just kneeled out the clock.
They would not have done that if they were down 1 point.
Nor should they have tied, but they did.
The Bears are not time constrained.
And there is no risk of them getting ball back another time if you get a stop.
And timeouts are much more valuable on defense.
Rams missed opportunity not calling TOs there.
And there is no risk of them getting ball back another time if you get a stop.
And timeouts are much more valuable on defense.
Rams missed opportunity not calling TOs there.
January 19, 2026 at 2:34 AM
The Bears are not time constrained.
And there is no risk of them getting ball back another time if you get a stop.
And timeouts are much more valuable on defense.
Rams missed opportunity not calling TOs there.
And there is no risk of them getting ball back another time if you get a stop.
And timeouts are much more valuable on defense.
Rams missed opportunity not calling TOs there.
it's true and maybe that should move us 2 or 3 percentage points but I think it's a big mistake to focus so much on a tiny sample instead of the entire season
January 19, 2026 at 2:03 AM
it's true and maybe that should move us 2 or 3 percentage points but I think it's a big mistake to focus so much on a tiny sample instead of the entire season
Rams already back to where Bears punted from
January 19, 2026 at 2:02 AM
Rams already back to where Bears punted from
