Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
just noticed our entire panel, myself include, picked seattle to win in our gut reaction picks last night 😬😬😬
January 27, 2026 at 3:48 AM
just noticed our entire panel, myself include, picked seattle to win in our gut reaction picks last night 😬😬😬
I didn't even send this one out because I assumed there wouldn't be any real discussion about it but:
January 26, 2026 at 4:57 AM
I didn't even send this one out because I assumed there wouldn't be any real discussion about it but:
oh, no -- not a tough call!
January 26, 2026 at 2:36 AM
oh, no -- not a tough call!
Here's a look at how open Shaheed was on the missed pass by Darnold
January 26, 2026 at 2:34 AM
Here's a look at how open Shaheed was on the missed pass by Darnold
Can see on the dots Bobo's move is just effective enough on Durant to give Darnold a window and he hits it
January 26, 2026 at 1:32 AM
Can see on the dots Bobo's move is just effective enough on Durant to give Darnold a window and he hits it
Rams lose JSN for a touchdown, dots!
January 26, 2026 at 1:05 AM
Rams lose JSN for a touchdown, dots!
Model based on positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff.
So basically considering everything in this picture (plus movement data for each player at that moment)
So basically considering everything in this picture (plus movement data for each player at that moment)
January 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Model based on positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff.
So basically considering everything in this picture (plus movement data for each player at that moment)
So basically considering everything in this picture (plus movement data for each player at that moment)
Weather extreme enough where I think it's totally fine to override the model now.
Probably should be more aggressive in FG situations. But this was punt vs. go.
Probably should be more aggressive in FG situations. But this was punt vs. go.
January 25, 2026 at 10:40 PM
Weather extreme enough where I think it's totally fine to override the model now.
Probably should be more aggressive in FG situations. But this was punt vs. go.
Probably should be more aggressive in FG situations. But this was punt vs. go.
here it is.
i'd be open to argument weather is more impactful than I stated. Tough one to estimate!
i'd be open to argument weather is more impactful than I stated. Tough one to estimate!
January 25, 2026 at 10:06 PM
here it is.
i'd be open to argument weather is more impactful than I stated. Tough one to estimate!
i'd be open to argument weather is more impactful than I stated. Tough one to estimate!
If you kick in that spot might as well pack it in and go home.
January 25, 2026 at 8:56 PM
If you kick in that spot might as well pack it in and go home.
Stidham to Mims against Christian Gonzalez for 52, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
January 25, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Stidham to Mims against Christian Gonzalez for 52, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
this is what I wrote about him in the story. his receiving work was amazing! that's why he's in there!
but to be a top 5 most valuable player as a running back who had a very bad year running the ball is an incredibly tough sell to me
but to be a top 5 most valuable player as a running back who had a very bad year running the ball is an incredibly tough sell to me
January 22, 2026 at 2:32 PM
this is what I wrote about him in the story. his receiving work was amazing! that's why he's in there!
but to be a top 5 most valuable player as a running back who had a very bad year running the ball is an incredibly tough sell to me
but to be a top 5 most valuable player as a running back who had a very bad year running the ball is an incredibly tough sell to me
kicking to go up 6
January 20, 2026 at 4:07 AM
kicking to go up 6
Solidly an error here.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
January 19, 2026 at 2:01 AM
Solidly an error here.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
12 percentage point gap between breakeven point and the conversion probability, so fairly strong confidence.
Massive difference between breakeven and conversion estimate. AND high leverage.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
January 18, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Massive difference between breakeven and conversion estimate. AND high leverage.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Kicking in that spot is trying to lose.
Our model preferred kick.
If I recall correctly had to get to 5 to go before it flipped to go.
If I recall correctly had to get to 5 to go before it flipped to go.
January 18, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Our model preferred kick.
If I recall correctly had to get to 5 to go before it flipped to go.
If I recall correctly had to get to 5 to go before it flipped to go.
P.J. Locke undercuts Curtis Samuel and picks off Josh Allen, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
January 17, 2026 at 11:40 PM
P.J. Locke undercuts Curtis Samuel and picks off Josh Allen, dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
Yes...though it was officially logged as a 4th-and-3. And at 3 we were go.
January 17, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Yes...though it was officially logged as a 4th-and-3. And at 3 we were go.
The worst four quarterbacks in QBR since Week 11.
January 14, 2026 at 3:02 PM
The worst four quarterbacks in QBR since Week 11.