Pierre Fermigier 🇫🇷🇪🇺
@scriptio.bsky.social
Politics, History, MENA & International Relations | Ex HRVP Cabinet, EEAS, SGDSN, Quai d'Orsay & Assemblée nationale | RT≠endorsement
Pinned
America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine
A bad deal is worse than no deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
“Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russia wants peace in #Ukraine. But as Carl von Clausewitz memorably put it, an aggressor is ‘always peace-loving’ insofar as it would prefer to invade unopposed.”
“Policymakers who want to avoid freedom-limiting measures in boosting fertility rates must develop a framework that affirms both individual autonomy and the societal value of family life.“
The Depopulation Panic
What demographic decline really means for the world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:24 PM
“Policymakers who want to avoid freedom-limiting measures in boosting fertility rates must develop a framework that affirms both individual autonomy and the societal value of family life.“
«Avant d’être une guerre de drones, la guerre d’Ukraine est d’abord une guerre de fantassins, qui doivent tous disposer d’un treillis, d’un casque, de chaussures et d’une arme à feu. Ce sont autant de sujets trop souvent négligés en Europe.»
Guerre en Ukraine : les 10 tendances lourdes de 2025 | Le Grand Continent
L’Ukraine est un laboratoire de la guerre moderne. Dans un conflit d’attrition dominé par l’urgence, armées et sociétés s’adaptent sans cesse. En 2025, le conflit ukrainien n’a pas seulement impacté...
legrandcontinent.eu
December 30, 2025 at 5:53 PM
«Avant d’être une guerre de drones, la guerre d’Ukraine est d’abord une guerre de fantassins, qui doivent tous disposer d’un treillis, d’un casque, de chaussures et d’une arme à feu. Ce sont autant de sujets trop souvent négligés en Europe.»
“But Hungary’s lesson is that media capture does not happen overnight. It happens gradually, through incentives rather than commands, as regulatory discretion, ownership concentration and political signalling begin to align.”
The Orbanisation of American media is here – European Council on Foreign Relations
Hungary's media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism's boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the
ecfr.eu
December 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
“But Hungary’s lesson is that media capture does not happen overnight. It happens gradually, through incentives rather than commands, as regulatory discretion, ownership concentration and political signalling begin to align.”
“AI-related borrowing now accounts for around 30 per cent of net investment grade issuance, according to Goldman Sachs, and is expected to grow in 2026, despite concerns over the level of #debt being taken on by the #AI ‘hyperscalers’.”
AI debt boom pushes US corporate bond sales close to record
Investment-grade borrowers have issued $1.7tn of bonds this year, closing in on 2020’s Covid debt rush
giftarticle.ft.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:26 AM
«Fidèle à sa prédilection pour les Mérovingiens, dont il est l’un des plus éminents spécialistes, Bruno Dumézil souligne à juste titre que les Carolingiens n’ont pas tout inventé, mais qu’une grande partie de ce qu’on attribue à #Charlemagne remonte en réalité beaucoup plus haut.»
Du nouveau sur Charlemagne
Recensé : Bruno Dumézil, Charlemagne, Puf
laviedesidees.fr
December 22, 2025 at 5:53 PM
«Fidèle à sa prédilection pour les Mérovingiens, dont il est l’un des plus éminents spécialistes, Bruno Dumézil souligne à juste titre que les Carolingiens n’ont pas tout inventé, mais qu’une grande partie de ce qu’on attribue à #Charlemagne remonte en réalité beaucoup plus haut.»
“Democrats are playing by the rules of a game that no longer exists. They are relying on sterile communiqués, predictable conferences, and cautious diplomacy while their opponents have become more ruthless, more imaginative, and better networked.”
The Illiberal International
Authoritarian cooperation is reshaping the global order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:45 PM
“Democrats are playing by the rules of a game that no longer exists. They are relying on sterile communiqués, predictable conferences, and cautious diplomacy while their opponents have become more ruthless, more imaginative, and better networked.”
“Last December, while Witkoff was visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss Gaza and other issues, the crown prince made an offer: I can help you solve #Ukraine. It involved Prince Mohammed’s longtime friend and the head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev”.
How Putin Got His Preferred U.S. Envoy: Come Alone, No CIA
The Kremlin fueled the rise of Trump’s friend Steve Witkoff with a prisoner release, sidelining career diplomats.
www.wsj.com
December 20, 2025 at 5:05 PM
“Last December, while Witkoff was visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss Gaza and other issues, the crown prince made an offer: I can help you solve #Ukraine. It involved Prince Mohammed’s longtime friend and the head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev”.
“Europe is hampered by structural weaknesses, but the United States’ difficulties largely result from its own choices. After decades of slowly building the complex machinery of economic warfare, the United States is ripping it apart.”
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagi...
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 14, 2025 at 5:08 PM
“Europe is hampered by structural weaknesses, but the United States’ difficulties largely result from its own choices. After decades of slowly building the complex machinery of economic warfare, the United States is ripping it apart.”
“The difference now is that these [28 Trump] points have been distributed across four documents, each with its own list of signatories.”
“Trump’s “New” “Peace Plan”: What Ukraine Is Being Compelled To Accept. Analysis of Four Documents”
ZN.UA publishes a detailed analysis of Trump's “updated” peace plan. Despite cosmetic changes, the proposals essentially repeat the Kremlin's demands regarding territories, NATO, and Ukraine's securit...
zn.ua
December 14, 2025 at 10:34 AM
“The difference now is that these [28 Trump] points have been distributed across four documents, each with its own list of signatories.”
“The defensive lines are a pragmatic economy of force measure. By hardening the frontier with sensors and unmanned systems, #NATO can economize its limited high-readiness maneuver units, concentrating them at decisive points rather than spreading them thin along a 1,500-kilometer border.“
Europe’s New Lines of Defense Are Not Maginot 2.0
Across Europe, nations have signaled a desire to dig, wire, and network their frontiers. From the Baltic Defense Line and the European Union’s proposed
warontherocks.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:55 PM
“The defensive lines are a pragmatic economy of force measure. By hardening the frontier with sensors and unmanned systems, #NATO can economize its limited high-readiness maneuver units, concentrating them at decisive points rather than spreading them thin along a 1,500-kilometer border.“
“It was previously believed that a resolution to the conflict built upon this premise could if not halt then at least slow down or seriously complicate Moldova’s drift toward the West, and derail its pro-EU course.”
Transnistria Reemerges as an Obstacle to Moldova Joining the EU
The issue of withdrawing troops and tons of ammunition from the left bank of the Dniester River requires discussion with Russia, and the Moldovan authorities are not yet ready for that.
carnegieendowment.org
December 13, 2025 at 3:45 PM
“It was previously believed that a resolution to the conflict built upon this premise could if not halt then at least slow down or seriously complicate Moldova’s drift toward the West, and derail its pro-EU course.”
“Unlike some previous heads of the Presidential Office, these contenders are not second-tier bureaucrats. All, except Palisa, hold high-ranking positions […] signaling that Zelensky does not intend to reduce the Presidential Office’s influence, as some opposition figures have urged.”
Yermak’s Replacement? All You Need to Know About the Top 5 Contenders
President Volodymyr Zelensky has named five potential candidates to replace Andriy Yermak as his chief of staff. Kyiv Post has prepared a brief overview of each of them.
www.kyivpost.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:33 PM
“Unlike some previous heads of the Presidential Office, these contenders are not second-tier bureaucrats. All, except Palisa, hold high-ranking positions […] signaling that Zelensky does not intend to reduce the Presidential Office’s influence, as some opposition figures have urged.”
«Le #SlowWeb, c'est l'idée que la technologie, c’est comme la nourriture : nous en consommons tous les jours et, si nous sommes ce que nous mangeons, alors nous sommes aussi ce que nous consommons numériquement.»
🔴 Un Web de M€&$£ ?
et ce que l'on peut faire pour changer cela.
www.cybernetica.fr
December 7, 2025 at 7:41 PM
«Le #SlowWeb, c'est l'idée que la technologie, c’est comme la nourriture : nous en consommons tous les jours et, si nous sommes ce que nous mangeons, alors nous sommes aussi ce que nous consommons numériquement.»
“Many Georgians are undoubtedly tired of the lack of tangible progress in the EU integration process, but that fatigue has not translated into widespread, grassroots dislike of the West.”
Is Georgia on a One-Way Road to Autocracy?
Georgian Dream may continue along the path of “managed democracy” and growing pressure on the opposition and civil society. But this model of authoritarianism will still leave room for destabilization...
carnegieendowment.org
December 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
“Many Georgians are undoubtedly tired of the lack of tangible progress in the EU integration process, but that fatigue has not translated into widespread, grassroots dislike of the West.”
“Isolated from their local community, the audience is instead pointed to controversies in American politics — a welcome development for the right wing, ensuring that people remain demobilized and focused on events that they cannot meaningfully influence.”
The Americanization of European Conservatism
Europe’s conservative politicians are increasingly obsessed with online culture wars rather than broad projects for society. It reflects a postmodern shift in which once deep-rooted party organization...
jacobin.com
December 7, 2025 at 5:22 PM
“Isolated from their local community, the audience is instead pointed to controversies in American politics — a welcome development for the right wing, ensuring that people remain demobilized and focused on events that they cannot meaningfully influence.”
“These bases even help the United States protect itself. To reach the northern Atlantic Ocean, for example, Russian submarines must first travel from a naval and air base on the Arctic Ocean through a chokepoint known as the #GIUK Gap (for Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom).”
Beware the Europe You Wish For
The downsides and dangers of allied independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 7, 2025 at 5:15 PM
“These bases even help the United States protect itself. To reach the northern Atlantic Ocean, for example, Russian submarines must first travel from a naval and air base on the Arctic Ocean through a chokepoint known as the #GIUK Gap (for Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom).”
«Là où #Vance verrait bien une Europe d’extrême droite inféodée à la Russie, #Rubio veut maintenir le continent dans la sphère d’influence des États-Unis.» @mayakandel.bsky.social
Marco Rubio, J. D. Vance : les deux politiques étrangères de l’administration Trump
Si l’Ukraine et ses soutiens européens ont pu retravailler le plan de paix très défavorable qui leur a été soumis par Washington, c’est grâce à la fracture à la tête des États-Unis, où s’affrontent d…
www.mediapart.fr
December 7, 2025 at 4:42 PM
«Là où #Vance verrait bien une Europe d’extrême droite inféodée à la Russie, #Rubio veut maintenir le continent dans la sphère d’influence des États-Unis.» @mayakandel.bsky.social
“If Trump has not yet realized his vision for the Ukraine war and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing hard to get. But counting on Putin always undermining a U.S.-Russia agreement cannot be Europe’s security strategy.” @nathalietocci.bsky.social
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
foreignpolicy.com
December 7, 2025 at 8:09 AM
“If Trump has not yet realized his vision for the Ukraine war and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing hard to get. But counting on Putin always undermining a U.S.-Russia agreement cannot be Europe’s security strategy.” @nathalietocci.bsky.social
“Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russia wants peace in #Ukraine. But as Carl von Clausewitz memorably put it, an aggressor is ‘always peace-loving’ insofar as it would prefer to invade unopposed.”
America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine
A bad deal is worse than no deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:45 PM
“Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russia wants peace in #Ukraine. But as Carl von Clausewitz memorably put it, an aggressor is ‘always peace-loving’ insofar as it would prefer to invade unopposed.”
“The constant struggle between the country’s presidents and parliament has long made the presidential administration, with its vague and undefined powers, the country’s main power center under ambitious leaders.“ #Ukraine
Yermak’s Resignation Has Changed the Landscape of Ukrainian Politics
The chief of staff’s resignation may have eased political tensions in Ukraine, but it has not yet resolved any of the accumulated problems.
carnegieendowment.org
December 6, 2025 at 2:30 PM
“The constant struggle between the country’s presidents and parliament has long made the presidential administration, with its vague and undefined powers, the country’s main power center under ambitious leaders.“ #Ukraine
“Russia seems to be succeeding at stringing the Trump administration along into an iterative process under which Trump increasingly pressures #Ukraine to move closer to Russia’s demands, and which divides the U.S. from its European and NATO allies.”
After Putin meeting, US envoys to host Ukraine advisor in Miami
With no major breakthrough at talks between US envoys & Vladimir Putin Tuesday, Russia seems to be succeeding at stringing the Trump administration along into an iterative process that serves its aims
diplomatic.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:17 PM
“Russia seems to be succeeding at stringing the Trump administration along into an iterative process under which Trump increasingly pressures #Ukraine to move closer to Russia’s demands, and which divides the U.S. from its European and NATO allies.”
“In addition to Merz and Macron, other participants in the call also do not trust the two U.S. emissaries.” #Ukraine
"We Must Not Leave Ukraine and Volodymyr Alone with These Guys"
DER SPIEGEL has obtained notes from a conference call involving EU leaders - including Germany's Friedrich Merz and France's Emmanuel Macron - showing just how little trust Europe has in Washington.
macspaunday.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:12 PM
“In addition to Merz and Macron, other participants in the call also do not trust the two U.S. emissaries.” #Ukraine
“While the cost of implementation is high upfront, proponents argue that the cost of not doing it is also massive—lost productivity, lost taxes, increased inequality, and greater long-term social spending.”
Is free universal childcare really such a crazy idea?
Laetitia@Work #88
laetitiaatwork.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 1:14 PM
“While the cost of implementation is high upfront, proponents argue that the cost of not doing it is also massive—lost productivity, lost taxes, increased inequality, and greater long-term social spending.”
“Preserving this fragile equilibrium would be a core objective of the reassurance force.
Geography, direct interests, and legal and practical considerations make the three NATO allies on the Black Sea—Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey—natural candidates to assume this role.”
Geography, direct interests, and legal and practical considerations make the three NATO allies on the Black Sea—Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey—natural candidates to assume this role.”
Turkey Stakes its Claim in the Ukraine Peace Process
Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in a postwar reassurance force for Ukraine, especially in the Black Sea. But Ankara’s relationships with Moscow and Washington mean it faces a tough choice...
carnegieendowment.org
November 29, 2025 at 12:58 AM
“Preserving this fragile equilibrium would be a core objective of the reassurance force.
Geography, direct interests, and legal and practical considerations make the three NATO allies on the Black Sea—Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey—natural candidates to assume this role.”
Geography, direct interests, and legal and practical considerations make the three NATO allies on the Black Sea—Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey—natural candidates to assume this role.”
“As a precondition to supporting the EU plan, De Wever demanded that member states provide Euroclear with binding commitments to cover the €185bn held at the depository, should the loan go sour or sanctions against the Russian assets be lifted.” #Ukraine
Belgium says using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal
Premier Bart De Wever sets out conditions that would resolve his objections to a proposed €140bn EU loan to Kyiv
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:46 PM
“As a precondition to supporting the EU plan, De Wever demanded that member states provide Euroclear with binding commitments to cover the €185bn held at the depository, should the loan go sour or sanctions against the Russian assets be lifted.” #Ukraine