Pierre Fermigier
@scriptio.bsky.social
Politics, History, MENA & International Relations | Ex HRVP Cabinet, EEAS, SGDSN, Quai d'Orsay & Assemblée nationale | RT≠endorsement
Pinned
America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine
A bad deal is worse than no deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
“Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russia wants peace in #Ukraine. But as Carl von Clausewitz memorably put it, an aggressor is ‘always peace-loving’ insofar as it would prefer to invade unopposed.”
“What we are seeing is, in fact, the manifestation of a balancing coalition against not just the UAE but against Israel and its increasingly reckless attacks across the region”.
The Saudi-UAE Throwdown
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have over the last week erupted into an incredibly nasty and heated conflict eerily reminiscent of their joint 2017 campaign against Qatar. The most immediat...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io
January 11, 2026 at 6:08 PM
“What we are seeing is, in fact, the manifestation of a balancing coalition against not just the UAE but against Israel and its increasingly reckless attacks across the region”.
”Zelenskyy did not intend to appoint Budanov as head of his office. And for a month, he did not do so. Budanov’s proposals—packaged as a set of twelve points—failed to impress him. All this time, they lay idle on the president’s desk, just like the initiatives put forward by Mykhailo Fedorov.”
Successor or Neutralization? Why the President Chose Budanov to Lead Presidential Office
Zelensky appointed Kirill Budanov as head of the Presidential Administration. Why this is more than just a personnel decision, and what it says about plans for a second term.
zn.ua
January 11, 2026 at 6:01 PM
”Zelenskyy did not intend to appoint Budanov as head of his office. And for a month, he did not do so. Budanov’s proposals—packaged as a set of twelve points—failed to impress him. All this time, they lay idle on the president’s desk, just like the initiatives put forward by Mykhailo Fedorov.”
“European officials made a dangerous bet, effectively waiting for a crisis to force themselves to fix widely acknowledged problems. Now, they risk doing something worse: wasting a crisis by failing to act as it unfolds.”
Europe Is Missing Its Moment
It’s time to finally reform—or risk irrelevance.
link.foreignaffairs.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:35 PM
“European officials made a dangerous bet, effectively waiting for a crisis to force themselves to fix widely acknowledged problems. Now, they risk doing something worse: wasting a crisis by failing to act as it unfolds.”
“The June war accelerated these trends. In the six months following it, the rial lost over 40% of its value and inflation surged by as much as 60%. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear program had reduced its leverage to negotiate sanctions relief, capital flight soon followed.”
Why This Time Is Different for Iran
Vali Nasr points out that the Islamic Republic is facing a perfect storm of external and internal threats to its survival.
prosyn.org
January 11, 2026 at 5:19 PM
“The June war accelerated these trends. In the six months following it, the rial lost over 40% of its value and inflation surged by as much as 60%. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear program had reduced its leverage to negotiate sanctions relief, capital flight soon followed.”
“And while Pahlavi did not outwardly endorse the attacks, he was perhaps the most prominent Iranian arguing they were paving the way for democracy. He made that case, repeatedly, on American television, international television and to various political leaders.”
The Son of the Last Shah Wants to Be the Next Leader of Iran
Reza Pahlavi has a famous name but whether he has enough support inside the country to rise to power is unclear.
www.politico.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:03 PM
“And while Pahlavi did not outwardly endorse the attacks, he was perhaps the most prominent Iranian arguing they were paving the way for democracy. He made that case, repeatedly, on American television, international television and to various political leaders.”
“Nuclear discourse in #Canada has accelerated already, thanks largely to Trump’s rhetoric. Watching Trump suddenly encircle Canada would effectively guarantee a #nuclear arms program in Canada itself—with all of the threats, uncertainty, and destabilizing factors attendant.“
Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe
Any attempt by the United States to claim the island would quickly spiral out of control.
link.foreignpolicy.com
January 10, 2026 at 8:54 AM
“By ditching the anti-Armenian rhetoric, Aliyev could end up undermining his own legitimacy while the county is struggling with stagnating living standards, economic problems, closed borders, corruption, and growing repression.” #Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan’s “Neither War Nor Peace” Strategy Is Limiting Rapprochement With Armenia
While signaling internationally that it wants peace, the Azerbaijani regime continues to promote anti-Armenian sentiment at home to mobilize domestic support.
carnegieendowment.org
January 9, 2026 at 6:31 PM
“By ditching the anti-Armenian rhetoric, Aliyev could end up undermining his own legitimacy while the county is struggling with stagnating living standards, economic problems, closed borders, corruption, and growing repression.” #Azerbaijan
“Policymakers who want to avoid freedom-limiting measures in boosting fertility rates must develop a framework that affirms both individual autonomy and the societal value of family life.“
The Depopulation Panic
What demographic decline really means for the world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:24 PM
“Policymakers who want to avoid freedom-limiting measures in boosting fertility rates must develop a framework that affirms both individual autonomy and the societal value of family life.“
«Avant d’être une guerre de drones, la guerre d’Ukraine est d’abord une guerre de fantassins, qui doivent tous disposer d’un treillis, d’un casque, de chaussures et d’une arme à feu. Ce sont autant de sujets trop souvent négligés en Europe.»
Guerre en Ukraine : les 10 tendances lourdes de 2025 | Le Grand Continent
L’Ukraine est un laboratoire de la guerre moderne. Dans un conflit d’attrition dominé par l’urgence, armées et sociétés s’adaptent sans cesse. En 2025, le conflit ukrainien n’a pas seulement impacté...
legrandcontinent.eu
December 30, 2025 at 5:53 PM
«Avant d’être une guerre de drones, la guerre d’Ukraine est d’abord une guerre de fantassins, qui doivent tous disposer d’un treillis, d’un casque, de chaussures et d’une arme à feu. Ce sont autant de sujets trop souvent négligés en Europe.»
“But Hungary’s lesson is that media capture does not happen overnight. It happens gradually, through incentives rather than commands, as regulatory discretion, ownership concentration and political signalling begin to align.”
The Orbanisation of American media is here – European Council on Foreign Relations
Hungary's media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism's boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the
ecfr.eu
December 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
“But Hungary’s lesson is that media capture does not happen overnight. It happens gradually, through incentives rather than commands, as regulatory discretion, ownership concentration and political signalling begin to align.”
“AI-related borrowing now accounts for around 30 per cent of net investment grade issuance, according to Goldman Sachs, and is expected to grow in 2026, despite concerns over the level of #debt being taken on by the #AI ‘hyperscalers’.”
AI debt boom pushes US corporate bond sales close to record
Investment-grade borrowers have issued $1.7tn of bonds this year, closing in on 2020’s Covid debt rush
giftarticle.ft.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:26 AM
«Fidèle à sa prédilection pour les Mérovingiens, dont il est l’un des plus éminents spécialistes, Bruno Dumézil souligne à juste titre que les Carolingiens n’ont pas tout inventé, mais qu’une grande partie de ce qu’on attribue à #Charlemagne remonte en réalité beaucoup plus haut.»
Du nouveau sur Charlemagne
Recensé : Bruno Dumézil, Charlemagne, Puf
laviedesidees.fr
December 22, 2025 at 5:53 PM
«Fidèle à sa prédilection pour les Mérovingiens, dont il est l’un des plus éminents spécialistes, Bruno Dumézil souligne à juste titre que les Carolingiens n’ont pas tout inventé, mais qu’une grande partie de ce qu’on attribue à #Charlemagne remonte en réalité beaucoup plus haut.»
“Democrats are playing by the rules of a game that no longer exists. They are relying on sterile communiqués, predictable conferences, and cautious diplomacy while their opponents have become more ruthless, more imaginative, and better networked.”
The Illiberal International
Authoritarian cooperation is reshaping the global order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:45 PM
“Democrats are playing by the rules of a game that no longer exists. They are relying on sterile communiqués, predictable conferences, and cautious diplomacy while their opponents have become more ruthless, more imaginative, and better networked.”
“Last December, while Witkoff was visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss Gaza and other issues, the crown prince made an offer: I can help you solve #Ukraine. It involved Prince Mohammed’s longtime friend and the head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev”.
How Putin Got His Preferred U.S. Envoy: Come Alone, No CIA
The Kremlin fueled the rise of Trump’s friend Steve Witkoff with a prisoner release, sidelining career diplomats.
www.wsj.com
December 20, 2025 at 5:05 PM
“Last December, while Witkoff was visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss Gaza and other issues, the crown prince made an offer: I can help you solve #Ukraine. It involved Prince Mohammed’s longtime friend and the head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev”.
“Europe is hampered by structural weaknesses, but the United States’ difficulties largely result from its own choices. After decades of slowly building the complex machinery of economic warfare, the United States is ripping it apart.”
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagi...
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 14, 2025 at 5:08 PM
“Europe is hampered by structural weaknesses, but the United States’ difficulties largely result from its own choices. After decades of slowly building the complex machinery of economic warfare, the United States is ripping it apart.”
“The difference now is that these [28 Trump] points have been distributed across four documents, each with its own list of signatories.”
“Trump’s “New” “Peace Plan”: What Ukraine Is Being Compelled To Accept. Analysis of Four Documents”
ZN.UA publishes a detailed analysis of Trump's “updated” peace plan. Despite cosmetic changes, the proposals essentially repeat the Kremlin's demands regarding territories, NATO, and Ukraine's securit...
zn.ua
December 14, 2025 at 10:34 AM
“The difference now is that these [28 Trump] points have been distributed across four documents, each with its own list of signatories.”
“The defensive lines are a pragmatic economy of force measure. By hardening the frontier with sensors and unmanned systems, #NATO can economize its limited high-readiness maneuver units, concentrating them at decisive points rather than spreading them thin along a 1,500-kilometer border.“
Europe’s New Lines of Defense Are Not Maginot 2.0
Across Europe, nations have signaled a desire to dig, wire, and network their frontiers. From the Baltic Defense Line and the European Union’s proposed
warontherocks.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:55 PM
“The defensive lines are a pragmatic economy of force measure. By hardening the frontier with sensors and unmanned systems, #NATO can economize its limited high-readiness maneuver units, concentrating them at decisive points rather than spreading them thin along a 1,500-kilometer border.“
“It was previously believed that a resolution to the conflict built upon this premise could if not halt then at least slow down or seriously complicate Moldova’s drift toward the West, and derail its pro-EU course.”
Transnistria Reemerges as an Obstacle to Moldova Joining the EU
The issue of withdrawing troops and tons of ammunition from the left bank of the Dniester River requires discussion with Russia, and the Moldovan authorities are not yet ready for that.
carnegieendowment.org
December 13, 2025 at 3:45 PM
“It was previously believed that a resolution to the conflict built upon this premise could if not halt then at least slow down or seriously complicate Moldova’s drift toward the West, and derail its pro-EU course.”
“Unlike some previous heads of the Presidential Office, these contenders are not second-tier bureaucrats. All, except Palisa, hold high-ranking positions […] signaling that Zelensky does not intend to reduce the Presidential Office’s influence, as some opposition figures have urged.”
Yermak’s Replacement? All You Need to Know About the Top 5 Contenders
President Volodymyr Zelensky has named five potential candidates to replace Andriy Yermak as his chief of staff. Kyiv Post has prepared a brief overview of each of them.
www.kyivpost.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:33 PM
“Unlike some previous heads of the Presidential Office, these contenders are not second-tier bureaucrats. All, except Palisa, hold high-ranking positions […] signaling that Zelensky does not intend to reduce the Presidential Office’s influence, as some opposition figures have urged.”
«Le #SlowWeb, c'est l'idée que la technologie, c’est comme la nourriture : nous en consommons tous les jours et, si nous sommes ce que nous mangeons, alors nous sommes aussi ce que nous consommons numériquement.»
🔴 Un Web de M€&$£ ?
et ce que l'on peut faire pour changer cela.
www.cybernetica.fr
December 7, 2025 at 7:41 PM
«Le #SlowWeb, c'est l'idée que la technologie, c’est comme la nourriture : nous en consommons tous les jours et, si nous sommes ce que nous mangeons, alors nous sommes aussi ce que nous consommons numériquement.»
“Many Georgians are undoubtedly tired of the lack of tangible progress in the EU integration process, but that fatigue has not translated into widespread, grassroots dislike of the West.”
Is Georgia on a One-Way Road to Autocracy?
Georgian Dream may continue along the path of “managed democracy” and growing pressure on the opposition and civil society. But this model of authoritarianism will still leave room for destabilization...
carnegieendowment.org
December 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
“Many Georgians are undoubtedly tired of the lack of tangible progress in the EU integration process, but that fatigue has not translated into widespread, grassroots dislike of the West.”
“Isolated from their local community, the audience is instead pointed to controversies in American politics — a welcome development for the right wing, ensuring that people remain demobilized and focused on events that they cannot meaningfully influence.”
The Americanization of European Conservatism
Europe’s conservative politicians are increasingly obsessed with online culture wars rather than broad projects for society. It reflects a postmodern shift in which once deep-rooted party organization...
jacobin.com
December 7, 2025 at 5:22 PM
“Isolated from their local community, the audience is instead pointed to controversies in American politics — a welcome development for the right wing, ensuring that people remain demobilized and focused on events that they cannot meaningfully influence.”
“These bases even help the United States protect itself. To reach the northern Atlantic Ocean, for example, Russian submarines must first travel from a naval and air base on the Arctic Ocean through a chokepoint known as the #GIUK Gap (for Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom).”
Beware the Europe You Wish For
The downsides and dangers of allied independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 7, 2025 at 5:15 PM
“These bases even help the United States protect itself. To reach the northern Atlantic Ocean, for example, Russian submarines must first travel from a naval and air base on the Arctic Ocean through a chokepoint known as the #GIUK Gap (for Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom).”
«Là où #Vance verrait bien une Europe d’extrême droite inféodée à la Russie, #Rubio veut maintenir le continent dans la sphère d’influence des États-Unis.» @mayakandel.bsky.social
Marco Rubio, J. D. Vance : les deux politiques étrangères de l’administration Trump
Si l’Ukraine et ses soutiens européens ont pu retravailler le plan de paix très défavorable qui leur a été soumis par Washington, c’est grâce à la fracture à la tête des États-Unis, où s’affrontent d…
www.mediapart.fr
December 7, 2025 at 4:42 PM
«Là où #Vance verrait bien une Europe d’extrême droite inféodée à la Russie, #Rubio veut maintenir le continent dans la sphère d’influence des États-Unis.» @mayakandel.bsky.social
“If Trump has not yet realized his vision for the Ukraine war and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing hard to get. But counting on Putin always undermining a U.S.-Russia agreement cannot be Europe’s security strategy.” @nathalietocci.bsky.social
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
foreignpolicy.com
December 7, 2025 at 8:09 AM
“If Trump has not yet realized his vision for the Ukraine war and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing hard to get. But counting on Putin always undermining a U.S.-Russia agreement cannot be Europe’s security strategy.” @nathalietocci.bsky.social