Stefan Gerlach
@sgerlach.bsky.social
Chief Economist of EFG Bank in Zurich; ex-Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; ex-Executive Director, HKMA; ex-BIS and ex-Prof at Goethe University and Brandeis University. (Views expressed are my own.)
Substack: https://swissmacro.substack.com
Substack: https://swissmacro.substack.com
Pinned
In today’s post, I ask whether the number of former government ministers on ECB's Governing Council has risen and note that it increased from 0 in 2001 to 7 in 2021. Why has this shift occurred, and what might it mean for monetary policy?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/when-polit...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/when-polit...
When Politicians Become Central Bankers
The backgrounds of the ECB’s Governing Council members may shape monetary policy
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:14 AM
In today’s post, I ask whether the number of former government ministers on ECB's Governing Council has risen and note that it increased from 0 in 2001 to 7 in 2021. Why has this shift occurred, and what might it mean for monetary policy?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/when-polit...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/when-polit...
An interesting presentation by SNB President Martin Schlegel at the 2025 SNB Watchers conference this afternoon.
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
The path to the monetary policy decision at the SNB
www.snb.ch
November 21, 2025 at 2:17 PM
An interesting presentation by SNB President Martin Schlegel at the 2025 SNB Watchers conference this afternoon.
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
I began looking into how Swiss banks fared in the Great Depression and found a paper on the near failure of the Schweizerische Volksbank in 1933. It deserves wider attention, so I decided to write a post based on it.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...
Blowing Up the Second-Largest Swiss Bank
The 1933 rescue of the Schweizerische Volksbank
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:29 AM
I began looking into how Swiss banks fared in the Great Depression and found a paper on the near failure of the Schweizerische Volksbank in 1933. It deserves wider attention, so I decided to write a post based on it.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...
Markets still see 2% as the most likely ECB policy rate in 2026, but the ECB Watch Tool suggests it would not take much for a cut to 1.75% to become the central scenario.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
Quick comment: Will the ECB stay at 2%?
Markets appear not fully convinced
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Markets still see 2% as the most likely ECB policy rate in 2026, but the ECB Watch Tool suggests it would not take much for a cut to 1.75% to become the central scenario.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
Today I return to global monetary policy. Looking at 10 central banks, I show how the mean versus the median of interest rates helps predict future interest rate changes. The data suggest that further interest rate moves are now likely to be modest.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/back-to-gl...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/back-to-gl...
Back to global monetary policy
Further easing looks likely to be slow and modest
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Today I return to global monetary policy. Looking at 10 central banks, I show how the mean versus the median of interest rates helps predict future interest rate changes. The data suggest that further interest rate moves are now likely to be modest.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/back-to-gl...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/back-to-gl...
The Riksbank is looking for a new Deputy Governor. Central banks should advertise all senior positions — if the pool is restricted to insiders there can be no presumption that the best possible candidate is appointed.
www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...
www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...
Recruitment of new Executive Board member initiated
The General Council of the Riksbank has decided to begin a recruitment process for a new member of the Executive Board of the Riksbank. The General Council also
www.riksbank.se
October 24, 2025 at 8:22 AM
The Riksbank is looking for a new Deputy Governor. Central banks should advertise all senior positions — if the pool is restricted to insiders there can be no presumption that the best possible candidate is appointed.
www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...
www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...
That didn’t age well: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Switzerland Shows No Signs of Changing the SNB After Jordan’s Long Reign
Switzerland could have the best chance in years to revamp its central bank right now, if the country actually wanted it.
www.bloomberg.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:49 AM
That didn’t age well: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Yesterday the SNB released its first Summary of the discussion at its last monetary policy meeting. I was positively surprised and found it well done. Here is a post I wrote:
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The SNB releases a meeting summary
A welcome step toward greater transparency in Swiss monetary policy
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Yesterday the SNB released its first Summary of the discussion at its last monetary policy meeting. I was positively surprised and found it well done. Here is a post I wrote:
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Stephen Miran, the Fed’s newest governor, used his first speech to argue that the neutral rate has plunged after this year’s sharp shift in US economic policy. It is a striking claim — and it raises the obvious question: is he right?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...
Governor Miran’s first speech
Has the neutral rate fallen sharply?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Stephen Miran, the Fed’s newest governor, used his first speech to argue that the neutral rate has plunged after this year’s sharp shift in US economic policy. It is a striking claim — and it raises the obvious question: is he right?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...
Great -- what enthusiasm! youtu.be/AHio_rKk5tE?...
Exclusif : les premiers mots de Philippe Aghion, prix Nobel d’économie
YouTube video by franceinfo
youtu.be
October 16, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Great -- what enthusiasm! youtu.be/AHio_rKk5tE?...
Some comments on a very interesting recent Bloomberg article on the upcoming ECB appointments:
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bloomberg-...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bloomberg-...
Bloomberg on Upcoming Changes at the ECB
A major reshuffle ahead
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Some comments on a very interesting recent Bloomberg article on the upcoming ECB appointments:
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bloomberg-...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bloomberg-...
In today’s post, I look at the upcoming decision of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-mas-at...
The MAS at the Crossroads
Decision finely balanced, but patience likely to prevail for now
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 4:14 AM
In today’s post, I look at the upcoming decision of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-mas-at...
In today’s post, I look at Martin Schlegel’s excellent first year as SNB president.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...
Martin Schlegel’s First Year as SNB President
A promising start with hopes of more to come
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 3:02 AM
In today’s post, I look at Martin Schlegel’s excellent first year as SNB president.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...
In today’s post, I look at annual inflation (the average monthly inflation rate over the past year) which is not very informative about current price pressures. By averaging across countries instead of over time we can get a better sense of current inflation.
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Tracking Global Inflation
A cross-country approach to identifying turning points in inflation
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:18 AM
In today’s post, I look at annual inflation (the average monthly inflation rate over the past year) which is not very informative about current price pressures. By averaging across countries instead of over time we can get a better sense of current inflation.
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Now at the SNB’s annual Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture at the ETH Zurich. This year’s speaker is John Cochrane.
October 2, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Now at the SNB’s annual Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture at the ETH Zurich. This year’s speaker is John Cochrane.
A very interesting speech, given at @suomenpankki.fi yesterday. The highlight was President Lagarde’s discussion of why the impact of the US tariffs on the euro area has been less than expected.
on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’
on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’
Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’ as markets doubt further cuts
Central bank’s president stresses policymakers ready to act if ‘risks to inflation shift’
on.ft.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:02 AM
A very interesting speech, given at @suomenpankki.fi yesterday. The highlight was President Lagarde’s discussion of why the impact of the US tariffs on the euro area has been less than expected.
on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’
on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’
This is a good read by @tuomasvalimaki.suomenpankki.fi on the ECB’s operational framework.
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
A new dawn, a new day, a new life for monetary policy implementation
How we implement monetary policy shapes the financial system and its infrastructure in a fundamental way. – This is a moment of opportunity. The Eurosystem has a solid operational foundation. Now is the time to learn, refine, and adapt. We’re not starting from scratch. We’re building on years of experience, evidence, and excellent collaboration within the central banking community, said Member of the Board Tuomas Välimäki at the Bank of Finland & SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation: Old Wisdoms and New Trends in Helsinki on 11 June 2025.
www.suomenpankki.fi
October 1, 2025 at 6:38 AM
This is a good read by @tuomasvalimaki.suomenpankki.fi on the ECB’s operational framework.
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
Today I attended a timely and thought-provoking conference hosted by @suomenpankki.fi on monetary policy, geopolitics and trade. Highlights included speeches by Governor @ollirehn.suomenpankki.fi, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and ECB President Lagarde.
September 30, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Today I attended a timely and thought-provoking conference hosted by @suomenpankki.fi on monetary policy, geopolitics and trade. Highlights included speeches by Governor @ollirehn.suomenpankki.fi, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and ECB President Lagarde.
In today’s post I review an article on tariffs and monetary policy. Central banks should not look through tariff shocks but rather manage to decline in economic activity to the new equilibrium level.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
Tariffs and Monetary Policy
Why central banks should not simply “look through” tariff-driven inflation
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 7:21 AM
In today’s post I review an article on tariffs and monetary policy. Central banks should not look through tariff shocks but rather manage to decline in economic activity to the new equilibrium level.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...