Shelley Clark | Lightnews

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 1d

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41277108/

Now available:

"From Birth to Death: The Marital Consequences of Child Loss for Unmarried Mothers"

Stud Fam Plann 2025 Nov 23. doi:10.1111/sifp.70041. Online ahead of print.

Abstract
High levels of premarital childbearing in Africa have spurred considerable interest in its consequences for women. Premarital childbearing corresponds with women's poor health, as well as their subsequent life course outcomes, including their marriage timing and quality. However, this work has not considered the survival of women's premaritally born children, leaving unclear what happens to unmarried mothers when their children do not survive. In this paper, we ask how infant death affects unmarried mothers' subsequent life course outcomes. We analyze recent Demographic and Health Survey data from 26 countries to examine the marital outcomes of unmarried mothers-differentiating between those whose firstborn survived infancy and those whose child did not. We find that, although premarital childbearing is generally known to correspond with marriage disadvantages, unwed mothers whose premarital births ended in the death of an infant have distinctive marital trajectories and experiences compared to their peers with a surviving child. Although child loss accelerates unmarried mothers' entry into marriages, these bereaved mothers are more likely to marry less educated, polygynous, and violent husbands, especially among younger birth cohorts. The results demonstrate the double disadvantages unmarried women face in both bearing and losing a child.

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 7d

Thread!

Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 8d

1/ Concerns about low birth rates & below "replacement" fertility have been in the news a lot lately. But what does "replacement fertility" mean exactly?
(Throwback pic to that time I tried replacement fertility all in one go). jenndowd.substack.com/p/what-is-re... #demography #fertility

Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 8d

1/ Concerns about low birth rates & below "replacement" fertility have been in the news a lot lately. But what does "replacement fertility" mean exactly?
(Throwback pic to that time I tried replacement fertility all in one go). jenndowd.substack.com/p/what-is-re... #demography #fertility

Matthew M. Brooks @ruraldemography.bsky.social · 13d

Want to know why these encouraging but expected trends occurred? Well you can read the full paper here to find out: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

<em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em> | NCFR Family Science Journal | Wiley Online Library

Objective To examine whether family change in rural America is widening the rural–urban child poverty gap and increasing inequalities between children raised in married parent families and those rai...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Matthew M. Brooks @ruraldemography.bsky.social · 13d

Answer #2: When using the Supplemental Poverty Rate, we find that rural child poverty rates have fallen, particularly post 2017. Broadly speaking, this progress on poverty is unexpected since rural kids are increasingly living in nonmarital families, which normally have high risks of poverty.

Matthew M. Brooks @ruraldemography.bsky.social · 13d

Answer #1: Rural kids are increasingly NOT living in married parent families. Instead they are increasingly living with cohabiting parents, never married parents, and with no parents (kinship care). This shift away from married families has happened at much faster pace for rural than urban kids.

Matthew M. Brooks @ruraldemography.bsky.social · 13d

Ever wonder about what’s it like to grow up in rural America? So did we! @shelleydclark.bsky.social and I tackle two basic—but essential—questions in our new Journal of Marriage and Family article, just out today. Who do rural kids live with today? How likely are rural kids to grow up in poverty?

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 21d

Looking forward to this!

Leafia Ye @leafiaye.bsky.social · Oct 10

We are building a new pop center at UofT and will hold our first mini-conference on Nov 6 - come join us!!

Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓

Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 23d

@mcgillarts.bsky.social @mcgillumedia.bsky.social @mcgillnewsmag.bsky.social @popassocamerica.bsky.social

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · 23d

psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/t/1_np...

"The current pro-natalist project is weaponizing an imaginary rural America in ways that harm real rural Americans today."

My DeJong Lecture, and the others in the 20th anniversary event, is now available: "How pro-natalist policies harm rural Americans."

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Oct 23

Starting now; join us on Zoom.

pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...

20th Annual De Jong Lecture | Population Research Institute

The Department of Sociology and Criminology is thrilled to announce the 20th Anniversary of the De Jong Lectureship Series on Thursday, October 23, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. in Welch, Room 202 (or via Zoom)....

pop.psu.edu

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Oct 22

Tomorrow at 9 am EST I'll be one of the three speakers for the 20th anniversary of the De Jong Lecture at Penn State, discussing “The Underpinnings and Limits of Pronatalism.” Registration to watch on Zoom is available at the link.

pop.psu.edu/events/20th-...

20th Annual De Jong Lecture | Population Research Institute

The Department of Sociology and Criminology is thrilled to announce the 20th Anniversary of the De Jong Lectureship Series on Thursday, October 23, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. in Welch, Room 202 (or via Zoom)....

pop.psu.edu

Leafia Ye @leafiaye.bsky.social · Oct 10

We are building a new pop center at UofT and will hold our first mini-conference on Nov 6 - come join us!!

Exhibit 1: amazing speaker line-up - featuring friends around the world to discuss why demography/pop center matters! 🤓

Exhibit 2: the iconic castle where this conference will take place 🏰 ✨

The speaker line-up for the Toronto Population Network's first mini-conference (Ridhi Kashyap, Oxford; Elizabeth Dhuey, UofToronto; Emilio Parrado, UPenn; Katherine Curtis, Wisconsin; Rachel Margolis, Western; Sarah Flood, Minnesota Pop Center; Shelley Clark, McGill)

The conference venue - Hart House, University of Toronto

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Aug 21

This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.

sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...

Amanda Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · Aug 20

I found this out because there were these weird off-hand comments in the population projections from the era. I was shocked that they thought fertility rates would remain at or near Depression levels in the 1940s and 1950s.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.

Amanda Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · Aug 20

Did you know that in the 1930s and 1940s elites across society were wringing their hands about birthrate decline? Just like today they attributed their low fertility (BELOW REPLACEMENT, SHUDDER SHUDDER) to individualism, urbanization, consumerism, selfishness, etc.

This paper discusses it nicely.

ipc2009.popconf.org

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Aug 20

#population #demography

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Aug 20

Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.

Amanda Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · Aug 20

Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.

We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.

Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · Aug 20

From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"

Amanda Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · Aug 20

Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.

We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.

Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · Aug 20

From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"

graph of historical population projections from 1946 showing they were all too low

Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · Aug 20

Feeling alarmed over dire long-term population projections that suggest humanity will disappear? Don't be!

Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.

sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...

Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball

August 20th, 2025

Population panic – worries about “depopulation” linked to low birth rates – has become pervasive, with dire predictions in both the short and long term. Yet demographers like us – experts who explicitly study population size, composition, and structure – are generally not highly concerned. Why is this? It’s because we understand the strengths and limitations of population projections. Projections can accurately describe how populations will change if we know future birth, death, and migration rates. But demographers are well aware that they don’t have a crystal ball – we can’t fully anticipate economic shifts, political changes, global events, or how future generations will respond to their changing worlds. That’s why the farther we project from the present, the less accurate those projections are likely to be.

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Aug 1

ICYMI

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...

Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions

While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.

theconversation.com

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

Read the whole thing!
@mcgillumedia.bsky.social @mcgillarts.bsky.social

9/9

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

Our ongoing conversation partners about these ideas and the need for demographers to challenge the mistakes of pronatalism include
@amandajean.bsky.social @srhayford.bsky.social @lauralindberg.bsky.social @alisongemmill.bsky.social @drjenndowd.bsky.social
8/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

But the kind of crisis that pronatalists say requires state policy interventions in childbearing decisions isn't supported by evidence or good social science.
7/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

There can be a good case for adjustments to economic and labor policies, family support, education investments, and immigration to adapt to changes in the age structure of the population, and to help families reach their desired number of children.
6/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

Nor is there any current reason to expect medium-term decline in the US population in particular, or the crises pronatalists imagine about the labor force. Some of their ideas risk making labor force problems *worse* by reversing gains in women's labor force participation.
5/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

"Most population scientists avoid making such long-term projections, for the simple reason that they are usually wrong. That’s because fertility and mortality rates change over time in unpredictable ways."
4/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

Pronatalists overestimate the precision of long-term projections of fertility rates, assuming that once they've fallen they will stay low forever.
3/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

The public pronatalism discourse misunderstands how an important measure of fertility works and what it does and doesn't tell us. It relies on a measure, the total fertility rate, that *necessarily* underestimates lifetime fertility during a transition to childbearing at older ages.
2/

Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29

My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...

Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions

While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.

theconversation.com

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