Sinem Adar
@sinemadar.bsky.social
Head (CATS/SWPBerlin & CATS Network), Co-Head of the Autocratisation Thematic Group @SWP. Views personal. Writes in EN/TR
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Reposted by Sinem Adar
The SDF-STG agreement appears to have strengthened the trend away from collective status. Today, the basis to effectively sustain autonomy, let alone decentralisation, is much weaker. Whether coercive assimilation will in time replace the seeming commitment to individual rights is yet to be seen.
The decree by Shara'a granting Kurdish citizens of Syria rights is no coincidence. It is the carrot, along with the fighting, to reset the neg. positions. As important as the promise here towards an inclusive citizenship, the decree shifts the terrain from collective rights to individual rights.
January 30, 2026 at 2:12 PM
The SDF-STG agreement appears to have strengthened the trend away from collective status. Today, the basis to effectively sustain autonomy, let alone decentralisation, is much weaker. Whether coercive assimilation will in time replace the seeming commitment to individual rights is yet to be seen.
The SDF-STG agreement appears to have strengthened the trend away from collective status. Today, the basis to effectively sustain autonomy, let alone decentralisation, is much weaker. Whether coercive assimilation will in time replace the seeming commitment to individual rights is yet to be seen.
The decree by Shara'a granting Kurdish citizens of Syria rights is no coincidence. It is the carrot, along with the fighting, to reset the neg. positions. As important as the promise here towards an inclusive citizenship, the decree shifts the terrain from collective rights to individual rights.
January 30, 2026 at 2:12 PM
The SDF-STG agreement appears to have strengthened the trend away from collective status. Today, the basis to effectively sustain autonomy, let alone decentralisation, is much weaker. Whether coercive assimilation will in time replace the seeming commitment to individual rights is yet to be seen.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
I am not sure what the formation of brigades with SDF fighters would in practice mean when i) internal security forces under Damascus are agreed to enter the city centres of Hasakah and Qamisli, ii) integration of AANES institutions to the Syrian state is foreseen, and that
January 30, 2026 at 9:58 AM
I am not sure what the formation of brigades with SDF fighters would in practice mean when i) internal security forces under Damascus are agreed to enter the city centres of Hasakah and Qamisli, ii) integration of AANES institutions to the Syrian state is foreseen, and that
I keep hearing that the KDP is anxious for its own survival. Yet find it not convincing, given that the SDF's strategic decline (alongside Ankara's rapprochement with Ocalan) creates a vacuum for Kurdish leadership in the region. KDP could very well see this as an opportunity.
January 30, 2026 at 11:50 AM
I keep hearing that the KDP is anxious for its own survival. Yet find it not convincing, given that the SDF's strategic decline (alongside Ankara's rapprochement with Ocalan) creates a vacuum for Kurdish leadership in the region. KDP could very well see this as an opportunity.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
Turkey will repatriate all Turkish women and children under 12 from al Hol and Roj camps, in Syria. According to UN, there are 1300 Turkish nationals. Apparently men and boys above 12 have been transferred elsewhere
kisadalga.net/haber/ozel-h...
kisadalga.net/haber/ozel-h...
Türkiye, Al Hol ve Roj’daki vatandaşlarını alıyor: Rehabilitasyon ve yargılama planı
Ankara, Suriye’nin kuzeyinde bulunan Al Hol ve Al Roj kamplarında tutulan IŞİD’le bağlantılı Türkiye Cumhuriyeti vatandaşı kadınlar ile 12 yaş altı çocukları Türkiye’ye getirme kararı aldı. Karar kaps...
kisadalga.net
January 30, 2026 at 11:15 AM
Turkey will repatriate all Turkish women and children under 12 from al Hol and Roj camps, in Syria. According to UN, there are 1300 Turkish nationals. Apparently men and boys above 12 have been transferred elsewhere
kisadalga.net/haber/ozel-h...
kisadalga.net/haber/ozel-h...
I am not sure what the formation of brigades with SDF fighters would in practice mean when i) internal security forces under Damascus are agreed to enter the city centres of Hasakah and Qamisli, ii) integration of AANES institutions to the Syrian state is foreseen, and that
January 30, 2026 at 9:58 AM
I am not sure what the formation of brigades with SDF fighters would in practice mean when i) internal security forces under Damascus are agreed to enter the city centres of Hasakah and Qamisli, ii) integration of AANES institutions to the Syrian state is foreseen, and that
Reposted by Sinem Adar
My standing position for a while is “free (are votes accurately counted) and fair (what are the structural conditions of elections)” is not a good rubric anymore for assessing electoral regimes
That being said, we do need to be thinking more along the lines of how competitive authoritarian regimes target the "fair" rather than "free" part of elections. The big one — which is happening — is media consolation in the hands of regime-supporting oligarchs.
I agree. The more likely scenario is interdicting the results. Maybe @jamellebouie.net considers that separate from "rigging." I don't.
January 25, 2026 at 5:15 PM
My standing position for a while is “free (are votes accurately counted) and fair (what are the structural conditions of elections)” is not a good rubric anymore for assessing electoral regimes
Reposted by Sinem Adar
In his interview with NTV yesterday, Hakan Fidan made a curious move. When asked about the earlier criticism that his uncompromising stance on the SDF could jeopardise the so-called peace initiative, Fidan stated that as a politician, he must take public opinion seriously.
One of the most intriguing questions for me concerns the implications of this for the future of political system In Turkey and, within this context, also for succession dynamics.
January 24, 2026 at 8:35 AM
In his interview with NTV yesterday, Hakan Fidan made a curious move. When asked about the earlier criticism that his uncompromising stance on the SDF could jeopardise the so-called peace initiative, Fidan stated that as a politician, he must take public opinion seriously.
Turkish gains in Syria come with the mid-to-long-term risk of becoming hostage to the structures that are formed and the interests they shape. Managing path dependencies without being led by them is not easy.
January 25, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Turkish gains in Syria come with the mid-to-long-term risk of becoming hostage to the structures that are formed and the interests they shape. Managing path dependencies without being led by them is not easy.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
UAE plans to pay for first of the Gaza concentration camps, um “planned communities”. Naturally.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
United Arab Emirates plans to bankroll first ‘planned community’ in south Gaza
Exclusive: Blueprints describe a ‘case study’ community where residents submit biometric data to gain entry
www.theguardian.com
January 23, 2026 at 10:50 PM
UAE plans to pay for first of the Gaza concentration camps, um “planned communities”. Naturally.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
In his interview with NTV yesterday, Hakan Fidan made a curious move. When asked about the earlier criticism that his uncompromising stance on the SDF could jeopardise the so-called peace initiative, Fidan stated that as a politician, he must take public opinion seriously.
One of the most intriguing questions for me concerns the implications of this for the future of political system In Turkey and, within this context, also for succession dynamics.
January 24, 2026 at 8:35 AM
In his interview with NTV yesterday, Hakan Fidan made a curious move. When asked about the earlier criticism that his uncompromising stance on the SDF could jeopardise the so-called peace initiative, Fidan stated that as a politician, he must take public opinion seriously.
If you have not done so already, follow the CATS Network's LinkedIn Account for updates on publications from CATS and its Network partners. 👇
January 23, 2026 at 2:04 PM
If you have not done so already, follow the CATS Network's LinkedIn Account for updates on publications from CATS and its Network partners. 👇
Reposted by Sinem Adar
Die Ära der Pax Americana geht zu Ende. Europa kann sich nicht länger auf die Partnerschaft mit den USA verlassen. Eine Studie von Barbara Lippert & Stefan Mair (Hg.) zeigt in 14 Beiträgen Wege aus der Abhängigkeit von Washington. (1/4) www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Mit, ohne, gegen Washington: Die Neubestimmung der Beziehungen Europas zu den USA
Die Epoche der Pax Americana, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg Deutschlands und Europas Sicherheit garantierte, kommt an ihr Ende. Die Europäer...
www.swp-berlin.org
January 22, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Die Ära der Pax Americana geht zu Ende. Europa kann sich nicht länger auf die Partnerschaft mit den USA verlassen. Eine Studie von Barbara Lippert & Stefan Mair (Hg.) zeigt in 14 Beiträgen Wege aus der Abhängigkeit von Washington. (1/4) www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
"“So, I see the presence continuing, perhaps withdrawn to Iraq at some point, and then subordinating US interests to regional allies. In this case, there are synergies between Turkey and the Arab states. The outlier was always Israel.”, Stein said"
www.turkeyrecap.com/p/syrian-dem...
www.turkeyrecap.com/p/syrian-dem...
Syrian Democratic Farces
Issue #289
www.turkeyrecap.com
January 22, 2026 at 4:14 PM
"“So, I see the presence continuing, perhaps withdrawn to Iraq at some point, and then subordinating US interests to regional allies. In this case, there are synergies between Turkey and the Arab states. The outlier was always Israel.”, Stein said"
www.turkeyrecap.com/p/syrian-dem...
www.turkeyrecap.com/p/syrian-dem...
Bahceli: "The DEM Party must make a decision: Will it stand with or against the founding leader of the PKK? Will it remain in the shadow of terrorism, or will it serve a future free of terrorism?
[...]
[...]
Should the SDF lose more ground, which will increase the likelihood of a unified central state authority under Shara'a, I will also not be surprised to see a new wave of repression against the DEM Party.
January 21, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Bahceli: "The DEM Party must make a decision: Will it stand with or against the founding leader of the PKK? Will it remain in the shadow of terrorism, or will it serve a future free of terrorism?
[...]
[...]
Reposted by Sinem Adar
After Erdogan visited Trump last year, the discussion was thst TR left the US with empty hands. There is clearly more to what the bare eye sees. The last couple of days underline this.
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
January 20, 2026 at 4:46 PM
After Erdogan visited Trump last year, the discussion was thst TR left the US with empty hands. There is clearly more to what the bare eye sees. The last couple of days underline this.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
January 20, 2026 at 4:35 PM
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
After Erdogan visited Trump last year, the discussion was thst TR left the US with empty hands. There is clearly more to what the bare eye sees. The last couple of days underline this.
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
January 20, 2026 at 4:46 PM
After Erdogan visited Trump last year, the discussion was thst TR left the US with empty hands. There is clearly more to what the bare eye sees. The last couple of days underline this.
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
January 20, 2026 at 4:35 PM
It is now confirmed, I think, that the Trump administration’s vision for Syria overlaps with that of the Turkish and the Saudi: centralized state under Arab leadership.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
Seeming like the Shammar Sanadid Forces have defected from the SDF to the govt, meaning the YPG has lost its earliest Arab ally (dating back to 2013)... also means DAANES loses a big chunk of Arab populated areas at the end of the M4 on Iraqi border (between Rmeilan and Ya'rubiyah)
January 20, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Seeming like the Shammar Sanadid Forces have defected from the SDF to the govt, meaning the YPG has lost its earliest Arab ally (dating back to 2013)... also means DAANES loses a big chunk of Arab populated areas at the end of the M4 on Iraqi border (between Rmeilan and Ya'rubiyah)
Reposted by Sinem Adar
Collapse of Yemen’s STC and Syria’s SDF in such close proximity seems to be more than coincidence, especially given how the Saudi-UAE fallout has been framed around state sovereignty vs armed secessionist movements. Obviously local context matters most but there’s a new regional dynamic in play.
January 19, 2026 at 10:49 AM
Collapse of Yemen’s STC and Syria’s SDF in such close proximity seems to be more than coincidence, especially given how the Saudi-UAE fallout has been framed around state sovereignty vs armed secessionist movements. Obviously local context matters most but there’s a new regional dynamic in play.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
Hamidreza Azizi: "Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah is existential. Turkey neither seeks nor can credibly assume that role. Ankara’s broader regional project remains [...] calibrated to preserve maneuverability vis-à-vis Israel, the west and Arab partners"
amwaj.media/en/debate/de...
amwaj.media/en/debate/de...
Debate: Will Hezbollah have a new partner in Turkey? | Amwaj.media
The war in Gaza, Hezbollah's setbacks in Lebanon and the fall of former president Bashar Al-Assad in Syria have all diminished Iran's strategic depth in the Levant. What was once the core of Tehran's ...
amwaj.media
January 18, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Hamidreza Azizi: "Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah is existential. Turkey neither seeks nor can credibly assume that role. Ankara’s broader regional project remains [...] calibrated to preserve maneuverability vis-à-vis Israel, the west and Arab partners"
amwaj.media/en/debate/de...
amwaj.media/en/debate/de...
The agreement btw the STG and the SDF sets the stage for a new phase in the struggle over political representation in Syria. One of the key components of this new phase will be efforts (by Damascus and other actors) to "indigenize" the Kurdish representation.
January 19, 2026 at 7:41 AM
The agreement btw the STG and the SDF sets the stage for a new phase in the struggle over political representation in Syria. One of the key components of this new phase will be efforts (by Damascus and other actors) to "indigenize" the Kurdish representation.
Reposted by Sinem Adar
For background and context for today’s major developments in Syria and the SDF, check out several of the pieces in this terrific collection released last month. Questions of centralization, fragmentation and federalism have been critical to the transition.
pomeps.org/pomeps-studi...
pomeps.org/pomeps-studi...
POMEPS Studies 57: Syria After Assad - Project on Middle East Political Science
Many developments during the past year have given rise to a host of crucial questions about the future of Syria and the Syrian people. To explore them, the Project on Middle East Political Science (PO...
pomeps.org
January 18, 2026 at 8:18 PM
For background and context for today’s major developments in Syria and the SDF, check out several of the pieces in this terrific collection released last month. Questions of centralization, fragmentation and federalism have been critical to the transition.
pomeps.org/pomeps-studi...
pomeps.org/pomeps-studi...