Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
Professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Power Politics | Empires | International Order
dhnexon.net | https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com | duckofminerva.com
Power Politics | Empires | International Order
dhnexon.net | https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com | duckofminerva.com
Pinned
Dan Nexon
@dhnexon.bsky.social
· Oct 4
It has been suggested that i pin this piece, but I never actually posted it myself. So 👇
Reposted by Dan Nexon
This is partly true but moreso DOGE teams have become fully part of the departments they were integrated with and are very much alive and a part of normal processes now
The "DOGE is gone" articles are clickbait but this one gets it closer to the truth: DOGE is not gone, it just claims to have "no centralized leadership" anymore -- in other words, its leadership is hiding in an attempt to avoid blame.
DOGE no longer has ‘centralized leadership’ under White House tech team, personnel head says
The team that was altered to house DOGE — formerly the U.S. Digital Service — is also still doing its own technology work across agencies.
www.nextgov.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:54 PM
This is partly true but moreso DOGE teams have become fully part of the departments they were integrated with and are very much alive and a part of normal processes now
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Nothing is "long-standing": Russia's "objectives have been numerous and varied significantly through the first year of the war"
See Samuel Charap and Khrystyna Holynska, Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad, available at www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
See Samuel Charap and Khrystyna Holynska, Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad, available at www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
November 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Nothing is "long-standing": Russia's "objectives have been numerous and varied significantly through the first year of the war"
See Samuel Charap and Khrystyna Holynska, Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad, available at www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
See Samuel Charap and Khrystyna Holynska, Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad, available at www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Dan Nexon
You know what? I'm going to toot my own horn a little bit. Here are the first two pages from "Lost Worlds." If you've read "Sapiens," compare the depth of his understanding of the material he's citing with what I'm doing here.
November 25, 2025 at 5:49 PM
You know what? I'm going to toot my own horn a little bit. Here are the first two pages from "Lost Worlds." If you've read "Sapiens," compare the depth of his understanding of the material he's citing with what I'm doing here.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
I would decline to voluntarily cooperate. No way. Issue a subpoena and fight it out in court.
MS NOW confirms: The FBI is working with Capitol Police to schedule interviews with the six Democratic lawmakers who urged service members to refuse to comply with illegal orders.
November 25, 2025 at 5:39 PM
I would decline to voluntarily cooperate. No way. Issue a subpoena and fight it out in court.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Abuse of power extending beyond Senator Kelly
"FBI has requested interviews with six Democratic U.S. lawmakers."
DOJ official "said the interviews were to determine 'if there's any wrongdoing and then go from there.'"
Note: For video accurately stating military law
www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...
"FBI has requested interviews with six Democratic U.S. lawmakers."
DOJ official "said the interviews were to determine 'if there's any wrongdoing and then go from there.'"
Note: For video accurately stating military law
www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...
November 25, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Abuse of power extending beyond Senator Kelly
"FBI has requested interviews with six Democratic U.S. lawmakers."
DOJ official "said the interviews were to determine 'if there's any wrongdoing and then go from there.'"
Note: For video accurately stating military law
www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...
"FBI has requested interviews with six Democratic U.S. lawmakers."
DOJ official "said the interviews were to determine 'if there's any wrongdoing and then go from there.'"
Note: For video accurately stating military law
www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...
🧵 Obligatory self-promotion.
@cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social devote a chapter to the transnational far-right in Exit from Hegemony. We contextualize it within broader dynamics of int'l power transitions, hegemonic decline, and transformation in international order. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
@cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social devote a chapter to the transnational far-right in Exit from Hegemony. We contextualize it within broader dynamics of int'l power transitions, hegemonic decline, and transformation in international order. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 25, 2025 at 5:46 PM
🧵 Obligatory self-promotion.
@cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social devote a chapter to the transnational far-right in Exit from Hegemony. We contextualize it within broader dynamics of int'l power transitions, hegemonic decline, and transformation in international order. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
@cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social devote a chapter to the transnational far-right in Exit from Hegemony. We contextualize it within broader dynamics of int'l power transitions, hegemonic decline, and transformation in international order. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Analysis of hypothetical RCV in 2020 Dem primary in this article is really interesting. Spoilers: Biden still wins, because more than half of Sanders supporters exhausted their ballots—they didn’t rank all of the candidates. If they had ranked Warren, she would have won in this poll.
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Analysis of hypothetical RCV in 2020 Dem primary in this article is really interesting. Spoilers: Biden still wins, because more than half of Sanders supporters exhausted their ballots—they didn’t rank all of the candidates. If they had ranked Warren, she would have won in this poll.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Made the Versailles-Versailles error in a podcast yesterday, which is basically the most horrifying thing that can happen to a University of Kentucky professor.
November 25, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Made the Versailles-Versailles error in a podcast yesterday, which is basically the most horrifying thing that can happen to a University of Kentucky professor.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
NEWS --> BBC confirms to me that they did edit a line out of historian @rutgerbregman.com's speech. It called Trump "the most openly corrupt president in US history."
BBC also confirms this was done on the advice of lawyers. So Trump's threats worked.
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2036...
BBC also confirms this was done on the advice of lawyers. So Trump's threats worked.
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2036...
Trump’s Fury at BBC Gets Unnerving Results with Pro-MAGA Edit Stunner
First, British Broadcasting Corporation execs resigned after Trump complained about a segment. Now the BBC edited out a line from a historian that was critical of Trump. Where does this end?
newrepublic.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:10 PM
NEWS --> BBC confirms to me that they did edit a line out of historian @rutgerbregman.com's speech. It called Trump "the most openly corrupt president in US history."
BBC also confirms this was done on the advice of lawyers. So Trump's threats worked.
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2036...
BBC also confirms this was done on the advice of lawyers. So Trump's threats worked.
New piece:
newrepublic.com/article/2036...
Reposted by Dan Nexon
LGM Podcast: Twenty-Eight Points with @cherylrofer.bsky.social and @dhnexon.bsky.social www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/11/lgm-... @lawgunsmoney.bsky.social
LGM Podcast: Twenty-Eight Points - Lawyers, Guns & Money
On the latest LGM Podcast Cheryl, Dan, and myself talk through the “peace” deal that the Trump administration attempted to foist upon Europe, Ukraine, and possibly Russia last week. We work through wh...
www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:11 PM
LGM Podcast: Twenty-Eight Points with @cherylrofer.bsky.social and @dhnexon.bsky.social www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/11/lgm-... @lawgunsmoney.bsky.social
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Utterly ludicrous framing from @nytimes.com here, treating Pete Hegseth's arguments as if they're legitimate. The casual reader will be left with no inkling whatsoever of how unusual and corrupt an abuse of the process this truly is:
November 24, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Utterly ludicrous framing from @nytimes.com here, treating Pete Hegseth's arguments as if they're legitimate. The casual reader will be left with no inkling whatsoever of how unusual and corrupt an abuse of the process this truly is:
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Matt Stoller is a Fucking Idiot Umpteenth Edition
Matt Stoller: “..Trump & Mamdani defeated establishment in their own way, representing hunger of voters on the right & left who want something different. If those sides cd come together.. that would be a sea change in how we organize our political economy”.
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
Monopoly Round-Up: Why the Establishment Freaked Out Over a Mamdani-Trump Press Conference
Meta wins its antitrust case, there are now two fire truck antitrust claims, the stock market got wobbly, and Larry Summers was exiled from the establishment, at least for now.
www.thebignewsletter.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Matt Stoller is a Fucking Idiot Umpteenth Edition
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Thank you. Smart people have been saying this every time that Reuters slop slid by.
DOGE isn't over so much as dispersed... www.nextgov.com/digital-gove... "But the longstanding White House technology team that President Donald Trump used to house DOGE continues to work on technology modernization projects throughout federal agencies."
DOGE no longer has ‘centralized leadership’ under White House tech team, personnel head says
The team that was altered to house DOGE — formerly the U.S. Digital Service — is also still doing its own technology work across agencies.
www.nextgov.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Thank you. Smart people have been saying this every time that Reuters slop slid by.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
On Nov. 22, Vahid Abedini, an Iranian Studies professor at University of Oklahoma, was boarding a flight to attend the Middle East Studies Assn mtg in Washington, D.C. when he was detained by ICE.
OU Prof Joshua Landis says "he has been wrongfully detained because he has a valid H-1B visa."
OU Prof Joshua Landis says "he has been wrongfully detained because he has a valid H-1B visa."
November 24, 2025 at 10:33 PM
On Nov. 22, Vahid Abedini, an Iranian Studies professor at University of Oklahoma, was boarding a flight to attend the Middle East Studies Assn mtg in Washington, D.C. when he was detained by ICE.
OU Prof Joshua Landis says "he has been wrongfully detained because he has a valid H-1B visa."
OU Prof Joshua Landis says "he has been wrongfully detained because he has a valid H-1B visa."
Reposted by Dan Nexon
The Russian delegation at the Geneva 'peace' plan negotiations with Ukraine on Sunday
November 23, 2025 at 4:32 PM
The Russian delegation at the Geneva 'peace' plan negotiations with Ukraine on Sunday
Reposted by Dan Nexon
FWIW, RUMINT, but pretty reliable:
1. Vance key to US embrace of Russia plan on Ukraine, Rubio (and even Trump) out of the loop.
2. Vance-Rubio relations “awful.”
3. Rubio told the senators exactly what they said he told them.
4. Hegseth paranoid he’ll be shoved out, Driscoll will replace him.
1. Vance key to US embrace of Russia plan on Ukraine, Rubio (and even Trump) out of the loop.
2. Vance-Rubio relations “awful.”
3. Rubio told the senators exactly what they said he told them.
4. Hegseth paranoid he’ll be shoved out, Driscoll will replace him.
November 23, 2025 at 2:32 PM
FWIW, RUMINT, but pretty reliable:
1. Vance key to US embrace of Russia plan on Ukraine, Rubio (and even Trump) out of the loop.
2. Vance-Rubio relations “awful.”
3. Rubio told the senators exactly what they said he told them.
4. Hegseth paranoid he’ll be shoved out, Driscoll will replace him.
1. Vance key to US embrace of Russia plan on Ukraine, Rubio (and even Trump) out of the loop.
2. Vance-Rubio relations “awful.”
3. Rubio told the senators exactly what they said he told them.
4. Hegseth paranoid he’ll be shoved out, Driscoll will replace him.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
It’s a concentration camp, a prison camp, and a reeducation camp.
“They also vow stern measures to move homeless people to the remote site and force many of them to undergo treatment…
“They also vow stern measures to move homeless people to the remote site and force many of them to undergo treatment…
October 31, 2025 at 12:23 AM
It’s a concentration camp, a prison camp, and a reeducation camp.
“They also vow stern measures to move homeless people to the remote site and force many of them to undergo treatment…
“They also vow stern measures to move homeless people to the remote site and force many of them to undergo treatment…
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Difficult to overstate how profound a failure DOGE was. Spending in FY2025 was not only than in FY2024 – but higher than it was projected to be when Trump first took office.*
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
Bye bye, “DOGE”.
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
November 23, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Difficult to overstate how profound a failure DOGE was. Spending in FY2025 was not only than in FY2024 – but higher than it was projected to be when Trump first took office.*
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
The little bit of spending DOGE cut has already killed hundreds of thousands and will eventually lead to millions of deaths.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
The NASA Manned Spacecraft Center minimum-energy crewed Mars mission study (1968-69) post is coming along well. I got bogged down in the math for a while, until I realized that nearly all of it is approximations. They lacked data sufficient to know what would really work.
Now I am free and writing.
Now I am free and writing.
November 23, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The NASA Manned Spacecraft Center minimum-energy crewed Mars mission study (1968-69) post is coming along well. I got bogged down in the math for a while, until I realized that nearly all of it is approximations. They lacked data sufficient to know what would really work.
Now I am free and writing.
Now I am free and writing.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Congrats to everyone who covered the obviously bad faith, unprecedentedly illegal, & wildly unconstitutional data theft & dismantling of the federal government by a billionaire criminal Nazi & his henchmen as a legitimate process of “government efficiency.” Truly, well done.
Bye bye, “DOGE”.
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
It no longer exists as a “centralized entity”, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/dog...
November 23, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Congrats to everyone who covered the obviously bad faith, unprecedentedly illegal, & wildly unconstitutional data theft & dismantling of the federal government by a billionaire criminal Nazi & his henchmen as a legitimate process of “government efficiency.” Truly, well done.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Oddly enough, in media coverage of Dems' video warning against carrying out illegal orders, there's very little discussion of *whether it's actually reasonable to fear Trump is giving illegal commands or not.*
The evidence is strong that he is. Media should say so:
newrepublic.com/article/2035...
The evidence is strong that he is. Media should say so:
newrepublic.com/article/2035...
November 23, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Oddly enough, in media coverage of Dems' video warning against carrying out illegal orders, there's very little discussion of *whether it's actually reasonable to fear Trump is giving illegal commands or not.*
The evidence is strong that he is. Media should say so:
newrepublic.com/article/2035...
The evidence is strong that he is. Media should say so:
newrepublic.com/article/2035...
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Indonesia discovers the way to Trump heart is through billion dollar real estate concessions. www.ft.com/content/12c4...
When Hary met Donald: the billionaire key to Trump’s Indonesian plans
Hot-mic moment puts US president’s relationship with Hary Tanoesoedibjo in spotlight
www.ft.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Indonesia discovers the way to Trump heart is through billion dollar real estate concessions. www.ft.com/content/12c4...
Reposted by Dan Nexon
That it’s happening in America is exceptionally terrible not because we’re this paragon of virtue but because the US is still so powerful. It can affect everyone. Probably in ways we haven’t even thought of yet.
November 23, 2025 at 1:35 AM
That it’s happening in America is exceptionally terrible not because we’re this paragon of virtue but because the US is still so powerful. It can affect everyone. Probably in ways we haven’t even thought of yet.
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Reposted by Dan Nexon
Kavanaugh stop. Smashed the kid’s car windows and arrested him. He told them he was a U.S. citizen. The officer replied “I don’t care.”
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon
The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.
www.oregonlive.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Kavanaugh stop. Smashed the kid’s car windows and arrested him. He told them he was a U.S. citizen. The officer replied “I don’t care.”
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...