G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
crazy how hard the administration is pushing on this
January 13, 2026 at 3:11 AM
crazy how hard the administration is pushing on this
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Thanks to @perrybaconjr.bsky.social and @newrepublic.com for a great conversation today!
Talking democratic erosion with Perry Bacon, Jr.
Discussing ICE, Powell, Venezuela, and Democratic narratives from 2024
smotus.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Thanks to @perrybaconjr.bsky.social and @newrepublic.com for a great conversation today!
How early is too early to look at polls of the midterm elections? The answer, in tomorrow's Deep Dive:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/when-midte...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/when-midte...
How early is too early to look at midterm polls?
Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains about 5 points between now and November
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 12, 2026 at 8:57 PM
How early is too early to look at polls of the midterm elections? The answer, in tomorrow's Deep Dive:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/when-midte...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/when-midte...
@mehdirhasan.bsky.social Hey Medhi,
We want to add this poll to our website. Could you share a pdf of this article with us?
zeteo.com/p/graham-pla...
Thanks!
We want to add this poll to our website. Could you share a pdf of this article with us?
zeteo.com/p/graham-pla...
Thanks!
EXCLUSIVE: Graham Platner Poll Shows Him Up by 15 Points in Maine Senate Primary
The survey results, shared first with Zeteo, indicate Platner’s support is ‘strong and stable,’ his pollster told the campaign’s supporters last week.
zeteo.com
January 12, 2026 at 7:11 PM
@mehdirhasan.bsky.social Hey Medhi,
We want to add this poll to our website. Could you share a pdf of this article with us?
zeteo.com/p/graham-pla...
Thanks!
We want to add this poll to our website. Could you share a pdf of this article with us?
zeteo.com/p/graham-pla...
Thanks!
Note that the big "deciding to win" report published in fall 2024 (by a pro-centrism Dem Super PAC) was conducted almost entirely with data collected in Q4 2024 - Q1 2025, now rendered basically irrelevant by the inevitability of the passage of time.
January 12, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Note that the big "deciding to win" report published in fall 2024 (by a pro-centrism Dem Super PAC) was conducted almost entirely with data collected in Q4 2024 - Q1 2025, now rendered basically irrelevant by the inevitability of the passage of time.
This graph shows political independents are functionally as liberal as they are conservative, in terms of self-placement, a big uptick since 2024.
But I thought messaging on immigration in 2025 was going to marginalize more voters and push them away from Dems!!
But I thought messaging on immigration in 2025 was going to marginalize more voters and push them away from Dems!!
January 12, 2026 at 6:01 PM
This graph shows political independents are functionally as liberal as they are conservative, in terms of self-placement, a big uptick since 2024.
But I thought messaging on immigration in 2025 was going to marginalize more voters and push them away from Dems!!
But I thought messaging on immigration in 2025 was going to marginalize more voters and push them away from Dems!!
New Gallup figures in these charts. Well, so much for that emerging Republican majority people were writing about in November 2024. Was evidently a mass overreaction to Trump's win and failure to acknowledge softness of support, and thermostatic politics www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
January 12, 2026 at 5:58 PM
New Gallup figures in these charts. Well, so much for that emerging Republican majority people were writing about in November 2024. Was evidently a mass overreaction to Trump's win and failure to acknowledge softness of support, and thermostatic politics www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
in a hyper-inflation scenario, would the treasury issue i-bonds for like 50%? 100? 1000%?
January 12, 2026 at 2:34 AM
in a hyper-inflation scenario, would the treasury issue i-bonds for like 50%? 100? 1000%?
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?
January 12, 2026 at 1:44 AM
What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?
January 12, 2026 at 1:38 AM
googled "ICE polls" (from a fresh browser on a VPN with no cache). feels good
January 12, 2026 at 1:23 AM
googled "ICE polls" (from a fresh browser on a VPN with no cache). feels good
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
NEW from me:
Job growth has been functionally zero over the last five months, as the US sinks from a “low hire, low fire” labor market to a “no hire” one.
That slowdown is hitting young & low income workers the hardest 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-no-hir...
Job growth has been functionally zero over the last five months, as the US sinks from a “low hire, low fire” labor market to a “no hire” one.
That slowdown is hitting young & low income workers the hardest 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-no-hir...
The 'No Hire' Economy
US Job Growth has Zeroed Out as Hiring Rates Sink, Hitting Young & Low Income Workers the Hardest
www.apricitas.io
January 11, 2026 at 2:57 PM
NEW from me:
Job growth has been functionally zero over the last five months, as the US sinks from a “low hire, low fire” labor market to a “no hire” one.
That slowdown is hitting young & low income workers the hardest 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-no-hir...
Job growth has been functionally zero over the last five months, as the US sinks from a “low hire, low fire” labor market to a “no hire” one.
That slowdown is hitting young & low income workers the hardest 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-no-hir...
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
January 11, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
If you had predicted with precise accuracy any of our current top stories this week during the ‘24 election, it would have been dismissed as Trump Derangement Syndrome by most of the professional takesmiths.
January 10, 2026 at 3:43 PM
If you had predicted with precise accuracy any of our current top stories this week during the ‘24 election, it would have been dismissed as Trump Derangement Syndrome by most of the professional takesmiths.
The reason so many ICE agents are willing to break the law is that their leaders have created a permission and protection structure for doing so. ICE is killing & kidnapping citizens because the Republican Party has given them the green light. If you break the law the president will just pardon you!
Another US citizen being abducted.
She then escapes, and they nab her again.
How many more of these scenes can we watch?
This isn't immigration control.
It is state-sponsored kidnapping.
She then escapes, and they nab her again.
How many more of these scenes can we watch?
This isn't immigration control.
It is state-sponsored kidnapping.
January 11, 2026 at 2:28 AM
The reason so many ICE agents are willing to break the law is that their leaders have created a permission and protection structure for doing so. ICE is killing & kidnapping citizens because the Republican Party has given them the green light. If you break the law the president will just pardon you!
Interesting. And also: good for him. Proud Episcopalian here
Like I’ve been saying: I think one of the big political stories of the year is going to be non-conservative Christians getting loud.
At last night’s candlelight vigil for Renee Nicole Good, Bishop Rob Hirschfeld of the Episcopal Diocese of New Hampshire announced he had asked the clergy of the diocese to get their affairs in order and to make sure they have their wills written ...,
January 11, 2026 at 2:21 AM
Interesting. And also: good for him. Proud Episcopalian here
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
This is a question we're looking into in more detail this year (including in our spring survey - follow youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com to hear more! ) but some thoughts here based on data we got in fall and spring of last year ( www.ymrp.org/polling ) -- here's hopefully relevant context:
January 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM
This is a question we're looking into in more detail this year (including in our spring survey - follow youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com to hear more! ) but some thoughts here based on data we got in fall and spring of last year ( www.ymrp.org/polling ) -- here's hopefully relevant context:
it would be good if we had a political party in america that was at least as concerned with what is morally right as it is with what will make its donors and advisors happy
January 10, 2026 at 5:54 PM
it would be good if we had a political party in america that was at least as concerned with what is morally right as it is with what will make its donors and advisors happy
we have breached containment
January 9, 2026 at 7:46 PM
we have breached containment
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:57 PM
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Today’s jobs report shows yet more losses for construction and manufacturing, after declining for most of 2025. The working class is really getting squeezed under Trump
January 9, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Today’s jobs report shows yet more losses for construction and manufacturing, after declining for most of 2025. The working class is really getting squeezed under Trump
I thought this was a good piece from Ryan. Democratic (lowercase “d”) electoral competition in America will require a democratic faction to win control of the Republican Party 
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
The Future of Democracy Depends on the Republican Party
The Battle for a Liberal Society is Happening Within the Political Right
open.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:04 PM
I thought this was a good piece from Ryan. Democratic (lowercase “d”) electoral competition in America will require a democratic faction to win control of the Republican Party 
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...