G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
missed this. dems should do it regardless of the motivations. plurality single-winner primaries are dumb www.axios.com/2025/11/24/d...
Scoop: Democrats eye ranked-choice voting for 2028 primaries
It's a tool that drew national attention when it propelled New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to a decisive primary win.
www.axios.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:21 PM
missed this. dems should do it regardless of the motivations. plurality single-winner primaries are dumb www.axios.com/2025/11/24/d...
Public opinion changes over time — sometimes, quite quickly. Dems recently opened up an adv on economics that would have been game-changing in 2024.
Parties that myopically read polls blind themselves to strategies that work conditional on opinion change www.gelliottmorris.com/i/179654793/...
Parties that myopically read polls blind themselves to strategies that work conditional on opinion change www.gelliottmorris.com/i/179654793/...
November 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Public opinion changes over time — sometimes, quite quickly. Dems recently opened up an adv on economics that would have been game-changing in 2024.
Parties that myopically read polls blind themselves to strategies that work conditional on opinion change www.gelliottmorris.com/i/179654793/...
Parties that myopically read polls blind themselves to strategies that work conditional on opinion change www.gelliottmorris.com/i/179654793/...
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats
Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
Liberal Socialism is on the rise in the US. I wouldn't call is post-Liberal in the way the MAGA movement is
I don't think this is a correct description of America's party system.
November 23, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Liberal Socialism is on the rise in the US. I wouldn't call is post-Liberal in the way the MAGA movement is
Tomorrow's political data roundup is about survey experiments and what they can teach us about how voters are responding to information about the policies of the Trump presidency/GOP-controlled Congress: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
Two new polls find learning about Trump's policies moves opinion to Democrats
Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Tomorrow's political data roundup is about survey experiments and what they can teach us about how voters are responding to information about the policies of the Trump presidency/GOP-controlled Congress: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-new-po...
More from my interview with WNYC's On The Media about whether Democrats need to substantially moderate their issue positions (the claims are especially re: social policy) to win elections: www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm...
The Battle for the Future of the Democratic Party | On the Media | WNYC Studios
Progressive and centrist Democratic candidates had big wins in the 2025 elections. On this week’s On the Media, a data scientist fact-checks the claim that Democrats need moderate vot...
www.wnycstudios.org
November 22, 2025 at 4:17 PM
More from my interview with WNYC's On The Media about whether Democrats need to substantially moderate their issue positions (the claims are especially re: social policy) to win elections: www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm...
Trump approval (among adults) below 40% again: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
November 22, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Trump approval (among adults) below 40% again: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
marjorie taylor greene, noted article i defender www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2025 at 2:21 AM
marjorie taylor greene, noted article i defender www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
neat use of LLMs to extract discrete data out of survey responses. especially love the transparency around the exact model (GPT-5.1) and prompt used
November 21, 2025 at 6:31 PM
neat use of LLMs to extract discrete data out of survey responses. especially love the transparency around the exact model (GPT-5.1) and prompt used
The long Strength In Numbers article I posted yesterday has probably generated the most positive response to anything I've ever written.
Three notes:
1. Thank you all!!
2. Thanks also to @verasight.io for fielding my wild experiments
3. Please support SIN if you can!! gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Three notes:
1. Thank you all!!
2. Thanks also to @verasight.io for fielding my wild experiments
3. Please support SIN if you can!! gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
November 21, 2025 at 6:39 PM
The long Strength In Numbers article I posted yesterday has probably generated the most positive response to anything I've ever written.
Three notes:
1. Thank you all!!
2. Thanks also to @verasight.io for fielding my wild experiments
3. Please support SIN if you can!! gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Three notes:
1. Thank you all!!
2. Thanks also to @verasight.io for fielding my wild experiments
3. Please support SIN if you can!! gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Good rundown from @gelliottmorris.com on where things stand with all of the latest generic ballot polls.
There’s been a real post-election shift, and it’s looking more like Trump/GOP only temporarily ‘borrowed’ some voters who made up their 2024 coalition.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
There’s been a real post-election shift, and it’s looking more like Trump/GOP only temporarily ‘borrowed’ some voters who made up their 2024 coalition.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week
Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Good rundown from @gelliottmorris.com on where things stand with all of the latest generic ballot polls.
There’s been a real post-election shift, and it’s looking more like Trump/GOP only temporarily ‘borrowed’ some voters who made up their 2024 coalition.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
There’s been a real post-election shift, and it’s looking more like Trump/GOP only temporarily ‘borrowed’ some voters who made up their 2024 coalition.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Polls this week showed Democrats growing their margin in the House generic ballot — by 2 points on avg, compared to polls from the same pollsters last month.
Dems lead with 2024 non-voters & get 25% of non-white Trump voters!
If historical patterns hold, Dems could exceed their 2018 “blue wave.”
Dems lead with 2024 non-voters & get 25% of non-white Trump voters!
If historical patterns hold, Dems could exceed their 2018 “blue wave.”
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week
Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Polls this week showed Democrats growing their margin in the House generic ballot — by 2 points on avg, compared to polls from the same pollsters last month.
Dems lead with 2024 non-voters & get 25% of non-white Trump voters!
If historical patterns hold, Dems could exceed their 2018 “blue wave.”
Dems lead with 2024 non-voters & get 25% of non-white Trump voters!
If historical patterns hold, Dems could exceed their 2018 “blue wave.”
yes -- our poll is representative of the 2024 election by turnout. the turnout rate for the "affordability/non-ideology party" is well over 50%.
So does the non-ideological 38%, that values affordability above all else, actually vote?
If they did, then it's difficult to imagine they'd vote republican given the gop's punitive economic policies & the 38%'s priorities from this word frequency distribution.
If they did, then it's difficult to imagine they'd vote republican given the gop's punitive economic policies & the 38%'s priorities from this word frequency distribution.
November 21, 2025 at 4:41 AM
yes -- our poll is representative of the 2024 election by turnout. the turnout rate for the "affordability/non-ideology party" is well over 50%.
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
A landmark in data-driven political science that comes with info-packed charts galore. My personal favorite:
November 20, 2025 at 10:50 PM
A landmark in data-driven political science that comes with info-packed charts galore. My personal favorite:
actually, I don't think they do, based on the average level of political knowledge in our polls & their text answers to this question. they may have *preferences*, but they are not ideological (at the very least, not before they are affordability minded/general group interested/nature of the times)
I love the data and the presentation. My quibble would be that those affordability+non or less ideoligical voters really do have underlying ideologies. Just ask them how they are going to address affordability. Increased taxes? On whom? Decrease "waste fraud and abuse" deport people?
November 21, 2025 at 4:38 AM
actually, I don't think they do, based on the average level of political knowledge in our polls & their text answers to this question. they may have *preferences*, but they are not ideological (at the very least, not before they are affordability minded/general group interested/nature of the times)
this article will publish tomorrow morning at 7:30 am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House generic ballot polls this week
Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House vote. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:35 AM
this article will publish tomorrow morning at 7:30 am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Here are links to three recent posts at Strength In Numbers about partisan violence and the right's selective commitment to the Constitution substack.com/@gelliottmor...
G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris)
In light of Trump saying Democratic lawmakers should be killed for telling service members to refuse illegal orders, here are three posts I wrote earlier this year about political violence and the…
substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Here are links to three recent posts at Strength In Numbers about partisan violence and the right's selective commitment to the Constitution substack.com/@gelliottmor...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
This article's well-designed graphs and visualizations make a compelling case that the standard wisdom that "most voters are moderates" overlooks the essential distinction between "moderate" and "null" ideology. "Null" voters may *ignore* left/right: "Give me practical help for folks like me?"
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:35 PM
This article's well-designed graphs and visualizations make a compelling case that the standard wisdom that "most voters are moderates" overlooks the essential distinction between "moderate" and "null" ideology. "Null" voters may *ignore* left/right: "Give me practical help for folks like me?"
I would be pretty embarrassed/ashamed to be associated with a company (and company) this stupid. But I guess the payday is worth it to some people
November 20, 2025 at 5:23 PM
I would be pretty embarrassed/ashamed to be associated with a company (and company) this stupid. But I guess the payday is worth it to some people
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
A great post from @gelliottmorris.com that affirms existing PoliSci research showing that most Americans are not ideological thinkers. It also reaffirms my belief that election surveys should do more open ended questions.
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:12 PM
A great post from @gelliottmorris.com that affirms existing PoliSci research showing that most Americans are not ideological thinkers. It also reaffirms my belief that election surveys should do more open ended questions.
I disagree that people are "learning the wrong lesson" but I agree that people should be running more open ended responses instead of putting voters into ideological boxes just because of the way they have constructed their survey analysis (averaging a bunch of yes/no policy questions)
I think people are learning the wrong lesson from Elliott's post. My peace plan: everyone stops arguing over labels and instead runs surveys (like this one) with OPEN ENDED responses and we listen to what voters actually say.
And then we act on those feelings to win more elections :)
And then we act on those feelings to win more elections :)
we can probably agree on the following interpretation
parties can increase their probability of winning future elections not only (or even primarily) by moving to the coherent center on ideological issues, but by moving down the axis of ideology-materialism and focusing attention on affordability
parties can increase their probability of winning future elections not only (or even primarily) by moving to the coherent center on ideological issues, but by moving down the axis of ideology-materialism and focusing attention on affordability
November 20, 2025 at 3:13 PM
I disagree that people are "learning the wrong lesson" but I agree that people should be running more open ended responses instead of putting voters into ideological boxes just because of the way they have constructed their survey analysis (averaging a bunch of yes/no policy questions)
you are welcome
I gotta say it was fun to wake up and find a brand new and well researched article supporting my vibe that politics needed a 3d axis, left and right being insufficient cuz most folks DGAF about ideology. TLDR this is why you have a Spanberger and a Mamdani. And why the moderate debate is stupid AF.
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
November 20, 2025 at 3:12 PM
you are welcome
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
This is very cool and interesting and helpful. My only quibble is this finding should not be surprising! to anyone! Tons of normal voters mostly do not have coherent ideologies, particularly at the issue level. They want a jumble of stuff.
November 20, 2025 at 2:54 PM
This is very cool and interesting and helpful. My only quibble is this finding should not be surprising! to anyone! Tons of normal voters mostly do not have coherent ideologies, particularly at the issue level. They want a jumble of stuff.
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Elliott, I can't stress enough how enlightening your work has been. Hope your newsletter flourishes and you get the success you and your family deserve.
November 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Elliott, I can't stress enough how enlightening your work has been. Hope your newsletter flourishes and you get the success you and your family deserve.