G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
This is a question we're looking into in more detail this year (including in our spring survey - follow youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com to hear more! ) but some thoughts here based on data we got in fall and spring of last year ( www.ymrp.org/polling ) -- here's hopefully relevant context:
January 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM
This is a question we're looking into in more detail this year (including in our spring survey - follow youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com to hear more! ) but some thoughts here based on data we got in fall and spring of last year ( www.ymrp.org/polling ) -- here's hopefully relevant context:
it would be good if we had a political party in america that was at least as concerned with what is morally right as it is with what will make its donors and advisors happy
January 10, 2026 at 5:54 PM
it would be good if we had a political party in america that was at least as concerned with what is morally right as it is with what will make its donors and advisors happy
we have breached containment
January 9, 2026 at 7:46 PM
we have breached containment
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:57 PM
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Today’s jobs report shows yet more losses for construction and manufacturing, after declining for most of 2025. The working class is really getting squeezed under Trump
January 9, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Today’s jobs report shows yet more losses for construction and manufacturing, after declining for most of 2025. The working class is really getting squeezed under Trump
I thought this was a good piece from Ryan. Democratic (lowercase “d”) electoral competition in America will require a democratic faction to win control of the Republican Party 
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
The Future of Democracy Depends on the Republican Party
The Battle for a Liberal Society is Happening Within the Political Right
open.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:04 PM
I thought this was a good piece from Ryan. Democratic (lowercase “d”) electoral competition in America will require a democratic faction to win control of the Republican Party 
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...
New polling from Civiqs finds support for abolishing ICE has reached a new high. Other polls have shown a decrease in the agency's approval rating, and broad anxiety about agents' use of force to accomplish Trump's agenda
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Support for abolishing ICE is at a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 9, 2026 at 1:02 PM
New polling from Civiqs finds support for abolishing ICE has reached a new high. Other polls have shown a decrease in the agency's approval rating, and broad anxiety about agents' use of force to accomplish Trump's agenda
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
January 9, 2026 at 2:24 AM
these guys just have some absolutely terrible advisors
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
Top Democrats decline to say if they would rein in ICE after Minnesota shooting
www.independent.co.uk
January 8, 2026 at 11:35 PM
these guys just have some absolutely terrible advisors
Tomorrow at Strength In Numbers: A fresh look at public opinion toward ICE and Trump's deportation agenda, plus brand-new data on support for abolishing ICE.
Get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
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Subscribe to Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion, and elections. Evidence, not spin. Learn what the data really says. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a Substack p...
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 8, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Tomorrow at Strength In Numbers: A fresh look at public opinion toward ICE and Trump's deportation agenda, plus brand-new data on support for abolishing ICE.
Get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
I'm looking at the data for a column, and "abolish ICE" is both a lot more popular than you probably think, and a lot more popular than it has been in the past, including 2018
January 8, 2026 at 9:13 PM
I'm looking at the data for a column, and "abolish ICE" is both a lot more popular than you probably think, and a lot more popular than it has been in the past, including 2018
New YouGov polling shows more people say inflation is their #1 issue now than said the same at any point in 2023-2024 today.yougov.com/politics/art...
January 8, 2026 at 6:50 PM
New YouGov polling shows more people say inflation is their #1 issue now than said the same at any point in 2023-2024 today.yougov.com/politics/art...
It's also factually wrong. According to polling, Americans do not approve of ICE and do not support Trump's deportations. The 2024 election was not an up-or-down vote on a $1.3 trillion ICE budget
In 1933 a plurality of Germans voted for the NSDAP -- winning an election doesn't make your actions moral.
Sen. Katie Britt: "This is what America voted for"
January 8, 2026 at 3:53 PM
It's also factually wrong. According to polling, Americans do not approve of ICE and do not support Trump's deportations. The 2024 election was not an up-or-down vote on a $1.3 trillion ICE budget
looking forward to reading this (the economics of Pluribus)
January 8, 2026 at 3:15 PM
looking forward to reading this (the economics of Pluribus)
you can't talk about ice murdering a citizen or it'll increase the salience of biden's border policy www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
Video: Videos Contradict Trump Administration Account of ICE Shooting in Minneapolis
An analysis of footage from three camera angles show that the vehicle appears to be turning away from a federal officer as he opened fire.
www.nytimes.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:12 PM
you can't talk about ice murdering a citizen or it'll increase the salience of biden's border policy www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
democrats catch the republicans in party favorability in DDHQ's trackers. reminds me to put up our averages soon decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/favorabili...
January 8, 2026 at 1:01 PM
democrats catch the republicans in party favorability in DDHQ's trackers. reminds me to put up our averages soon decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/favorabili...
Check in on these numbers again in a few days:
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
January 8, 2026 at 4:15 AM
Check in on these numbers again in a few days:
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.2k): No one's buying this Greenland shit. Trump loses virtually everyone on the threat of force. He barely gets *half of Republicans* on "purchasing" Greenland.
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
January 7, 2026 at 7:50 PM
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.2k): No one's buying this Greenland shit. Trump loses virtually everyone on the threat of force. He barely gets *half of Republicans* on "purchasing" Greenland.
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
you do not need a constitutional amendment to zero out ice's budget??
Of course, none of this is going to happen. Abolishing ICE is about as likely as fixing the electoral college.
January 8, 2026 at 4:06 AM
you do not need a constitutional amendment to zero out ice's budget??
the map is a geographic map, not a cartogram, because that's what the free chart provider I use supports. don't be a dick
you see that map of the US colored orange and green ?
when the map looks like this, there will be science in what @gelliottmorris.com does
till then, not so much
the point of course is that your brain sees the huge green of S Dak& N Dak and your brain can't unsee that while NYC is invisible
when the map looks like this, there will be science in what @gelliottmorris.com does
till then, not so much
the point of course is that your brain sees the huge green of S Dak& N Dak and your brain can't unsee that while NYC is invisible
January 7, 2026 at 3:49 PM
the map is a geographic map, not a cartogram, because that's what the free chart provider I use supports. don't be a dick
it's probably just noise. i wanted to add uncertainty intervals to this chart, but then the vis gets really muddy
Weird little quirk going on right now on "immigration," showing a minor uptick (my guess is the massive attack on the right against Somalis is activating some bigotry) while support for "deportations" fell.
January 7, 2026 at 3:41 PM
it's probably just noise. i wanted to add uncertainty intervals to this chart, but then the vis gets really muddy
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Showing that Trump II has for now slipped below Trump I and he now has the very worst net approval through at this point of any polling-era presidency. Impressive!
the trump approval charts on the data hub are updated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
January 7, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Showing that Trump II has for now slipped below Trump I and he now has the very worst net approval through at this point of any polling-era presidency. Impressive!
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
"why aren't people watching cable news?"
cable news:
cable news:
January 7, 2026 at 3:25 PM
"why aren't people watching cable news?"
cable news:
cable news:
January 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
the trump approval charts on the data hub are updated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
January 7, 2026 at 1:01 PM
the trump approval charts on the data hub are updated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data