G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
January 12, 2026 at 1:38 AM
googled "ICE polls" (from a fresh browser on a VPN with no cache). feels good
January 12, 2026 at 1:23 AM
googled "ICE polls" (from a fresh browser on a VPN with no cache). feels good
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
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www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
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January 11, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/venezuela-...
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we have breached containment
January 9, 2026 at 7:46 PM
we have breached containment
January 9, 2026 at 2:24 AM
New YouGov polling shows more people say inflation is their #1 issue now than said the same at any point in 2023-2024 today.yougov.com/politics/art...
January 8, 2026 at 6:50 PM
New YouGov polling shows more people say inflation is their #1 issue now than said the same at any point in 2023-2024 today.yougov.com/politics/art...
democrats catch the republicans in party favorability in DDHQ's trackers. reminds me to put up our averages soon decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/favorabili...
January 8, 2026 at 1:01 PM
democrats catch the republicans in party favorability in DDHQ's trackers. reminds me to put up our averages soon decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/favorabili...
Check in on these numbers again in a few days:
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
January 8, 2026 at 4:15 AM
Check in on these numbers again in a few days:
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
YouGov: ICE favorability 39% today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
YG: 60% say ICE uses 2 much force today.yougov.com/politics/art...
Data 4 progress: 66% oppose ICE "roughing" protestors.(Imagine support for fatal violence against citizens is much lower)
January 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
the trump approval charts on the data hub are updated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
January 7, 2026 at 1:01 PM
the trump approval charts on the data hub are updated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
ICYMI: There is a very weak relationship between economic growth and House seat change in midterm elections. Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-a...
January 6, 2026 at 4:31 PM
ICYMI: There is a very weak relationship between economic growth and House seat change in midterm elections. Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-a...
teaser for tomorrow's deep dive over at strength in numbers www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-a...
January 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
teaser for tomorrow's deep dive over at strength in numbers www.gelliottmorris.com/p/midterms-a...
Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
January 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
On average across multiple polls, only 25% of Americans support military action in Venezuela
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
January 3, 2026 at 3:25 PM
On average across multiple polls, only 25% of Americans support military action in Venezuela
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
Wanted to show something cool w/ our polling averages.
There's been a slowdown in new data to add bc of the holidays. This increases uncertainty about what the polling avg is 2day (shaded green area).
Our avg is the only one with real uncertainty intervals!
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
There's been a slowdown in new data to add bc of the holidays. This increases uncertainty about what the polling avg is 2day (shaded green area).
Our avg is the only one with real uncertainty intervals!
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
January 2, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Wanted to show something cool w/ our polling averages.
There's been a slowdown in new data to add bc of the holidays. This increases uncertainty about what the polling avg is 2day (shaded green area).
Our avg is the only one with real uncertainty intervals!
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
There's been a slowdown in new data to add bc of the holidays. This increases uncertainty about what the polling avg is 2day (shaded green area).
Our avg is the only one with real uncertainty intervals!
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Fox News viewers love Trump.
People who watch MSNBC hate him.
And people who get their news primarily from podcasts lean left, esp on the economy.
Here's what your news diet says about your politics:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...
People who watch MSNBC hate him.
And people who get their news primarily from podcasts lean left, esp on the economy.
Here's what your news diet says about your politics:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...
January 2, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Fox News viewers love Trump.
People who watch MSNBC hate him.
And people who get their news primarily from podcasts lean left, esp on the economy.
Here's what your news diet says about your politics:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...
People who watch MSNBC hate him.
And people who get their news primarily from podcasts lean left, esp on the economy.
Here's what your news diet says about your politics:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...
Trump said on "Truth Social" the other day that his "real" approval rating is 64%. He is a liar. It is 40% (56% disapprove).
It is important to call out authoritarians when they try to manufacture consent for their unpopular agendas. Remind people how unpopular he is.
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
It is important to call out authoritarians when they try to manufacture consent for their unpopular agendas. Remind people how unpopular he is.
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
January 2, 2026 at 4:01 AM
Trump said on "Truth Social" the other day that his "real" approval rating is 64%. He is a liar. It is 40% (56% disapprove).
It is important to call out authoritarians when they try to manufacture consent for their unpopular agendas. Remind people how unpopular he is.
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
It is important to call out authoritarians when they try to manufacture consent for their unpopular agendas. Remind people how unpopular he is.
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
An official account of the United States government is dreamposting about deporting 80+ million citizens
December 31, 2025 at 11:16 PM
An official account of the United States government is dreamposting about deporting 80+ million citizens
Trump's job approval in our average at FiftyPlusOne.news is 40% approve, 56.3% disapprove, for a net of -16.3 today.
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
December 25, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Trump's job approval in our average at FiftyPlusOne.news is 40% approve, 56.3% disapprove, for a net of -16.3 today.
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really.
Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
looks like trump's approval rating is heading back down fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
December 24, 2025 at 8:23 PM
looks like trump's approval rating is heading back down fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
A November YouGov poll had ICE favorability underwater by 14 points among all Americans and 37(!) points among political independents today.yougov.com/politics/art...
December 21, 2025 at 1:38 AM
A November YouGov poll had ICE favorability underwater by 14 points among all Americans and 37(!) points among political independents today.yougov.com/politics/art...
"safe" seat?? you're just making stuff up now www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...
December 20, 2025 at 11:24 PM
"safe" seat?? you're just making stuff up now www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...