Andy Scollick
@andyscollick.bsky.social
Strategic foresight analyst: future security environment, defence policy, strategic planning, warfare development | Climate-energy-defence interactions | Former adviser to Ukraine's military | PhD in complex adaptive systems, sustainability and governance
Pinned
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Germany says talks with France on nuclear deterrence are at an early stage reut.rs/4rw7hbe
Germany says talks with France on nuclear deterrence are at an early stage
Talks between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron over creating a joint European nuclear deterrent are at an early stage and not aimed at diminishing the role of the United States, a German government spokesperson said on Monday.
reut.rs
February 16, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Germany says talks with France on nuclear deterrence are at an early stage reut.rs/4rw7hbe
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The fuel crisis in Cuba is so grave that in some areas, large numbers of people are reliant on a limited number of EVs. Renewable energy is “helping the country move forward,” a Havana resident told Reuters. “Otherwise, we would be completely paralyzed.”
#Solar Independence
#Solar Independence
The best way to fix a bad relationship with a neighbor is to reach out and help them fix a problem— no strings attached. We should help Cuba install a huge amount of solar and storage capacity to fix their electricity problem. Grace and gratitude could bring peace to our neighborhood.
February 16, 2026 at 12:06 PM
The fuel crisis in Cuba is so grave that in some areas, large numbers of people are reliant on a limited number of EVs. Renewable energy is “helping the country move forward,” a Havana resident told Reuters. “Otherwise, we would be completely paralyzed.”
#Solar Independence
#Solar Independence
Reposted by Andy Scollick
'By treating the EU not as a partner but as a delinquent debtor, the US has inadvertently supplied the one ingredient the European project always lacked: necessity.' writes William Dixon, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, in the latest RUSI Commentary.
Making Europe ‘Great' Again: US Hostility and the New World Order
Europe is being recast, sharper and stronger, reflecting the world order at work in the forge.
www.rusi.org
February 16, 2026 at 12:08 PM
'By treating the EU not as a partner but as a delinquent debtor, the US has inadvertently supplied the one ingredient the European project always lacked: necessity.' writes William Dixon, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, in the latest RUSI Commentary.
No consensus, for sure. But the writing is on the wall: Europe must up its game, fast, and emerge as a 'great' geopolitical power to rival (in strategic terms) the US, China and Russia.
Alea iacta est.
Alea iacta est.
This year's Munich Security Conference showed that while the U.S.-Europe alliance continues to function, the old order that bound the two sides for decades has broken down.
And there is no consensus on how the relationship can move forward.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/muni...
#MSC2026
And there is no consensus on how the relationship can move forward.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/muni...
#MSC2026
February 16, 2026 at 12:10 PM
No consensus, for sure. But the writing is on the wall: Europe must up its game, fast, and emerge as a 'great' geopolitical power to rival (in strategic terms) the US, China and Russia.
Alea iacta est.
Alea iacta est.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
For months, European capitals have attacked the EU's environmental policies, arguing onerous green rules were strangling their economies. But the bloc's single biggest weapon for slowing global warming remained off-limits.
That taboo was broken last week.
That taboo was broken last week.
The week the EU’s climate foundations started to shake
An assault on Europe’s most important climate law, the Emissions Trading System, took the fight against green rules to a whole new level.
www.politico.eu
February 16, 2026 at 8:40 AM
For months, European capitals have attacked the EU's environmental policies, arguing onerous green rules were strangling their economies. But the bloc's single biggest weapon for slowing global warming remained off-limits.
That taboo was broken last week.
That taboo was broken last week.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
President Volodymyr Zelensky said there is information indicating a possible large-scale attack in the coming days.
February 16, 2026 at 12:01 PM
President Volodymyr Zelensky said there is information indicating a possible large-scale attack in the coming days.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
New article!
Far-right fossil fuel ignorance: the nostalgia of national-industrial modernity by Kjell Vowles.
@kvowles.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2620920
Far-right fossil fuel ignorance: the nostalgia of national-industrial modernity by Kjell Vowles.
@kvowles.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2620920
February 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM
New article!
Far-right fossil fuel ignorance: the nostalgia of national-industrial modernity by Kjell Vowles.
@kvowles.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2620920
Far-right fossil fuel ignorance: the nostalgia of national-industrial modernity by Kjell Vowles.
@kvowles.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2620920
Reposted by Andy Scollick
8/ The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by >58 meters if melted entirely.
We are NOT talking about this happening soon.
But several individual basins have the potential to contribute meters of long-term sea-level rise if their thresholds are crossed.
We are NOT talking about this happening soon.
But several individual basins have the potential to contribute meters of long-term sea-level rise if their thresholds are crossed.
February 16, 2026 at 11:51 AM
8/ The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by >58 meters if melted entirely.
We are NOT talking about this happening soon.
But several individual basins have the potential to contribute meters of long-term sea-level rise if their thresholds are crossed.
We are NOT talking about this happening soon.
But several individual basins have the potential to contribute meters of long-term sea-level rise if their thresholds are crossed.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
7/ Another key insight: the ice drainage basins interact.
Ice loss in one region can lead to dynamic feedbacks in neighboring regions, increasing the risk of cascading responses.
Ice loss in one region can lead to dynamic feedbacks in neighboring regions, increasing the risk of cascading responses.
February 16, 2026 at 11:51 AM
7/ Another key insight: the ice drainage basins interact.
Ice loss in one region can lead to dynamic feedbacks in neighboring regions, increasing the risk of cascading responses.
Ice loss in one region can lead to dynamic feedbacks in neighboring regions, increasing the risk of cascading responses.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
3/ We analyzed 18 major Antarctic ice drainage basins using the ice-sheet model #PISM, gradually increasing global mean temperature to map their long-term response.
Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.
Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.
February 16, 2026 at 11:51 AM
3/ We analyzed 18 major Antarctic ice drainage basins using the ice-sheet model #PISM, gradually increasing global mean temperature to map their long-term response.
Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.
Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.
An excellent illustration of complex systems science. It underlines the message to policy makers and decision takers that we still don't know where many critical thresholds in the Earth System's physical subsystems lie (or are even aware that they exist) let alone in the human sphere subsystems.
2/ Our new study led by @ricarda-winkelmann.bsky.social and published today in @natclimate.nature.com shows that instead of a single tipping element with one threshold, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a system of interacting ice basins with different critical thresholds.
February 16, 2026 at 12:04 PM
An excellent illustration of complex systems science. It underlines the message to policy makers and decision takers that we still don't know where many critical thresholds in the Earth System's physical subsystems lie (or are even aware that they exist) let alone in the human sphere subsystems.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
February 16, 2026 at 11:51 AM
🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
Reposted by Andy Scollick
💯 "Universities risk ceding to AI their authority to define what counts as knowledge, judgement and learning. As AI evolves faster than institutional understanding, efficiency displaces reflection and convenience masquerades as progress." www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?sto...
When AI outpaces understanding: HE must reclaim authority
Universities risk ceding to AI their authority to define what counts as knowledge, judgement and learning. As AI evolves faster than institutional und...
www.universityworldnews.com
February 16, 2026 at 11:50 AM
💯 "Universities risk ceding to AI their authority to define what counts as knowledge, judgement and learning. As AI evolves faster than institutional understanding, efficiency displaces reflection and convenience masquerades as progress." www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?sto...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
At #MSC2026, Marco Rubio struck a more conciliatory tone than Vance last year, insisting the US & Europe 'belong together.'
But one year into Trump’s 2nd term, trust is low & the transatlantic relationship has radically changed.
🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
But one year into Trump’s 2nd term, trust is low & the transatlantic relationship has radically changed.
🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
February 16, 2026 at 9:34 AM
At #MSC2026, Marco Rubio struck a more conciliatory tone than Vance last year, insisting the US & Europe 'belong together.'
But one year into Trump’s 2nd term, trust is low & the transatlantic relationship has radically changed.
🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
But one year into Trump’s 2nd term, trust is low & the transatlantic relationship has radically changed.
🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Reposted by Andy Scollick
At #MSC2026, leaders from @fao.org @ifad.org @wfp.org @iom.int and @cgiar.org joined #OrderofMalta to examine how climate shocks, fragile supply chains, and shrinking humanitarian budgets are deepening food insecurity.
🔴 Watch: https://on.cgiar.org/465hgMb
🔴 Watch: https://on.cgiar.org/465hgMb
February 16, 2026 at 9:37 AM
At #MSC2026, leaders from @fao.org @ifad.org @wfp.org @iom.int and @cgiar.org joined #OrderofMalta to examine how climate shocks, fragile supply chains, and shrinking humanitarian budgets are deepening food insecurity.
🔴 Watch: https://on.cgiar.org/465hgMb
🔴 Watch: https://on.cgiar.org/465hgMb
Reposted by Andy Scollick
February 15, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Seems like yesterday. February 1996. I went to Pembrokeshire to take photographs of the oil spill impacts for use by eNGOs. I ended up helping rescue oiled seabirds. Sometimes you couldn't see one until a 'lump' in the crude oil moved slightly.
It was horrific. You never get over it.
It was horrific. You never get over it.
"Those images they saw, that's the real price of oil."
One of the UK's most devastating oil spills happened 30 years ago, killing thousands of seabirds and turning the beaches of south Wales black. Never again. We need a clean, renewable future for our seas & wildlife.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
One of the UK's most devastating oil spills happened 30 years ago, killing thousands of seabirds and turning the beaches of south Wales black. Never again. We need a clean, renewable future for our seas & wildlife.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Red eyes and black beaches: How the Sea Empress disaster left its mark
A major oil spill which killed thousands of birds is still being debated, three decades later.
www.bbc.co.uk
February 16, 2026 at 11:32 AM
Seems like yesterday. February 1996. I went to Pembrokeshire to take photographs of the oil spill impacts for use by eNGOs. I ended up helping rescue oiled seabirds. Sometimes you couldn't see one until a 'lump' in the crude oil moved slightly.
It was horrific. You never get over it.
It was horrific. You never get over it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Agree with almost all the takes on MSC. It felt like Davos was the shock, MSC was the hangover. Administration sought to tone down European outrage. It didn't work. And yet...
Europe increasingly has a NATO problem. There is no effort to prepare for war without the US. But...1/
Europe increasingly has a NATO problem. There is no effort to prepare for war without the US. But...1/
February 15, 2026 at 11:39 PM
Agree with almost all the takes on MSC. It felt like Davos was the shock, MSC was the hangover. Administration sought to tone down European outrage. It didn't work. And yet...
Europe increasingly has a NATO problem. There is no effort to prepare for war without the US. But...1/
Europe increasingly has a NATO problem. There is no effort to prepare for war without the US. But...1/
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Our security is more uncertain than in decades. But by working together, and by showing strength, Britain, Germany and the rest of Europe can preserve peace.
As defence chiefs, we warn you today about Russia, and say this rearmament is not warmongering | Richard Knighton and Carsten Breuer
Our security is more uncertain than in decades. But by working together, and by showing strength, Britain, Germany and the rest of Europe can preserve peace, say defence chiefs Richard Knighton and Ca...
www.theguardian.com
February 15, 2026 at 9:12 PM
Our security is more uncertain than in decades. But by working together, and by showing strength, Britain, Germany and the rest of Europe can preserve peace.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
June 3, 2025 at 8:34 AM
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
Exactly the wrong way to go about boosting Europe's security and defence: make it at the expense of health, education, welfare and environment.
Such short-sighted right-wing dogmatism will result in Far Right and Left governments opposed to defence, thus undermining Europe's security. 1/2 #MSC2026
Such short-sighted right-wing dogmatism will result in Far Right and Left governments opposed to defence, thus undermining Europe's security. 1/2 #MSC2026
German Foreign Minister called on France to prioritise budget cuts in social spending to bolster Europe’s defence capacity.
Germany deems French defence spending efforts ‘insufficient’
Germany deems French defence spending efforts 'insufficient'
www.brusselstimes.com
February 16, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Exactly the wrong way to go about boosting Europe's security and defence: make it at the expense of health, education, welfare and environment.
Such short-sighted right-wing dogmatism will result in Far Right and Left governments opposed to defence, thus undermining Europe's security. 1/2 #MSC2026
Such short-sighted right-wing dogmatism will result in Far Right and Left governments opposed to defence, thus undermining Europe's security. 1/2 #MSC2026
Reposted by Andy Scollick
European allies should take the lead in #NATO and shift it toward a Europe-led alliance, I argue w Rachel Ellehuus @rusi.bsky.social
As the discussions at #MSC2026 showed, it is time for Europeans to move beyond talk, roll up their sleeves and get to work. 👇
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
As the discussions at #MSC2026 showed, it is time for Europeans to move beyond talk, roll up their sleeves and get to work. 👇
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
The US wants a Europe-led NATO. Europeans should start planning it | Euractiv
The tendency to “muddle through” the Trump years until a new administration restores American engagement in the alliance, does not encourage bold initiatives. Wishful thinking and waiting it out are not a strategy
www.euractiv.com
February 16, 2026 at 9:40 AM
European allies should take the lead in #NATO and shift it toward a Europe-led alliance, I argue w Rachel Ellehuus @rusi.bsky.social
As the discussions at #MSC2026 showed, it is time for Europeans to move beyond talk, roll up their sleeves and get to work. 👇
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
As the discussions at #MSC2026 showed, it is time for Europeans to move beyond talk, roll up their sleeves and get to work. 👇
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Zelenskyy thanked Trump for the decisive sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, yet called for even more radical steps and issued a sharp address to Russians in the US and Europe.
February 16, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Zelenskyy thanked Trump for the decisive sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, yet called for even more radical steps and issued a sharp address to Russians in the US and Europe.
@glandsbergis.bsky.social: "Europe has to be ready to defend the values its vast majority holds dear."
Rubio kindly suggests replacing Western values with American interests
Everybody is discussing Rubio's speech, and nobody is discussing any European's speech.
landsbergis.com
February 16, 2026 at 10:56 AM
@glandsbergis.bsky.social: "Europe has to be ready to defend the values its vast majority holds dear."
Reposted by Andy Scollick
So good. @kajakallas.bsky.social is all of us.
February 14, 2026 at 3:24 PM
So good. @kajakallas.bsky.social is all of us.