Andy Scollick
@andyscollick.bsky.social
Strategic foresight analyst: future security environment, defence policy, strategic planning, warfare development | Climate-energy-defence interactions | Former adviser to Ukraine's military | PhD in complex adaptive systems, sustainability and governance
Pinned
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
"Doable", but for whom?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 7:34 AM
"Doable", but for whom?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Reposted by Andy Scollick
"‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating"
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 1:47 AM
"‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating"
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
Reposted by Andy Scollick
OKAY BIG ONE FOR YA
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
February 17, 2026 at 6:48 AM
OKAY BIG ONE FOR YA
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
Reposted by Andy Scollick
My professional opinion as an ecologist
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
In mid-latitudes, 1°C warming shifts climate belts >150km away from equator, toward poles
Closer to the poles means bigger shift
Most plant, animal species, etc live in 2°C temp range
In WA, 2°C moves Margaret River and Karri forest 300 km south
What's 300km south for you?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Closer to the poles means bigger shift
Most plant, animal species, etc live in 2°C temp range
In WA, 2°C moves Margaret River and Karri forest 300 km south
What's 300km south for you?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
February 17, 2026 at 1:01 AM
My professional opinion as an ecologist
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
"Doable"? Van Aalst has a strange sense of humour. He doesn't even mention the hugely increased violence, civil disorder, breakdown of governance and armed conflict that will likely come with a 3°C world. But yes, we can and must prepare for it.
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 4:44 AM
"Doable"? Van Aalst has a strange sense of humour. He doesn't even mention the hugely increased violence, civil disorder, breakdown of governance and armed conflict that will likely come with a 3°C world. But yes, we can and must prepare for it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Hours before peace talks in Geneva, virtually all of democratic Ukraine is under threat of attack by fascist Russia’s drones and missiles, yet Trump doesn’t criticize Kremlin dictator Putin - it’s “Ukraine better come to the table.”
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
February 17, 2026 at 4:30 AM
Hours before peace talks in Geneva, virtually all of democratic Ukraine is under threat of attack by fascist Russia’s drones and missiles, yet Trump doesn’t criticize Kremlin dictator Putin - it’s “Ukraine better come to the table.”
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since mid-2023
Ukraine reclaims 201 square kilometers in five days as Russia struggles without Starlink
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of
territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since
mid-2023, AFP reported
on Feb. 16, citing an analysis by the Insti...
english.nv.ua
February 17, 2026 at 12:18 AM
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since mid-2023
Reposted by Andy Scollick
❗️❗️Takeoff of a group of strategic bombers Tu-95MS, the planes are heading towards the launch lines.
February 16, 2026 at 10:46 PM
❗️❗️Takeoff of a group of strategic bombers Tu-95MS, the planes are heading towards the launch lines.
Unacceptable from @thejournal.ie. How so?
Not one mention of "climate change". Not one mention of why the Winter Olympics require artificial snow. Not one mention of the energy it takes to make artificial snow.
We expect better from the Editor, Sinead O'Carroll.
Not one mention of "climate change". Not one mention of why the Winter Olympics require artificial snow. Not one mention of the energy it takes to make artificial snow.
We expect better from the Editor, Sinead O'Carroll.
Meet the Irish man who *made* the slopes for the Olympic Games alpine skiing events in Bormio, Italy jrnl.ie/6954999f
The Irish man creating the magic slopes of the Olympic Games in Italy
jrnl.ie
February 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM
Unacceptable from @thejournal.ie. How so?
Not one mention of "climate change". Not one mention of why the Winter Olympics require artificial snow. Not one mention of the energy it takes to make artificial snow.
We expect better from the Editor, Sinead O'Carroll.
Not one mention of "climate change". Not one mention of why the Winter Olympics require artificial snow. Not one mention of the energy it takes to make artificial snow.
We expect better from the Editor, Sinead O'Carroll.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Winter Olympic bosses ban Ukrainian athlete from wearing a helmet in remembrance of Ukrainian athletes murdered by Russian invaders
But they seem perfectly happy selling Nazi-era imagery on a T-shirt
Utterly shameful!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv8zwxwp2eo
But they seem perfectly happy selling Nazi-era imagery on a T-shirt
Utterly shameful!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv8zwxwp2eo
Olympic body criticised for selling Nazi-era Games T-shirt
The International Olympic Committee defends the T-shirt as being part of its Heritage Collection, celebrating styles from all editions of the Games.
www.bbc.co.uk
February 16, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Winter Olympic bosses ban Ukrainian athlete from wearing a helmet in remembrance of Ukrainian athletes murdered by Russian invaders
But they seem perfectly happy selling Nazi-era imagery on a T-shirt
Utterly shameful!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv8zwxwp2eo
But they seem perfectly happy selling Nazi-era imagery on a T-shirt
Utterly shameful!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv8zwxwp2eo
Oh, the irony.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Feb. 16 accused Ukraine of attempting to interfere in Hungary’s upcoming elections during a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Orbán accuses Ukraine of trying to influence Hungary’s elections
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Feb. 16 accused Ukraine of attempting to interfere in Hungary’s upcoming elections during a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Hu...
english.nv.ua
February 16, 2026 at 10:22 PM
Oh, the irony.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
British and German chiefs of defence publish a joint oped warning their populations of Russia and arguing for a “whole-of-society approach and an honest, continent-wide conversation with the public that defence cannot be the preserve of uniformed personnel alone.“
As defence chiefs, we warn you today about Russia, and say this rearmament is not warmongering | Richard Knighton and Carsten Breuer
Our security is more uncertain than in decades. But by working together, and by showing strength, Britain, Germany and the rest of Europe can preserve peace, say defence chiefs Richard Knighton and Ca...
www.theguardian.com
February 16, 2026 at 7:57 PM
British and German chiefs of defence publish a joint oped warning their populations of Russia and arguing for a “whole-of-society approach and an honest, continent-wide conversation with the public that defence cannot be the preserve of uniformed personnel alone.“
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Croatia suspended all Russian oil supplies from its main terminal port at Adriatic coast in Krk to Hungary.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
February 16, 2026 at 9:41 PM
Croatia suspended all Russian oil supplies from its main terminal port at Adriatic coast in Krk to Hungary.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
At present. However, Europe could choose to extend its own umbrella based on France's nuclear deterrent (La Force de Dissuasion). And it could do it relatively rapidly. And we must. Before Russia beats us to it, by invading deeper into the east, and the Americans allow Russia to do it.
Germany’s Foreign Min Johann Wadephul on Europe: “We are only capable of defending ourselves together with the USA, not alone.
“Without the nuclear umbrella of the USA, without the secret service information from the USA, we are not capable of defending ourselves here.
“That is the pure reality.”
“Without the nuclear umbrella of the USA, without the secret service information from the USA, we are not capable of defending ourselves here.
“That is the pure reality.”
February 16, 2026 at 10:10 PM
At present. However, Europe could choose to extend its own umbrella based on France's nuclear deterrent (La Force de Dissuasion). And it could do it relatively rapidly. And we must. Before Russia beats us to it, by invading deeper into the east, and the Americans allow Russia to do it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
February 16, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The ETS is the most important and successful climate policy of the EU. It provides a market-based, predictable and stable way to transition to a sustainable economy. If EU truly wants to regain competitiveness, killing the ETS would be the worst thing you could do. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
The week the EU’s climate foundations started to shake
An assault on Europe’s most important climate law, the Emissions Trading System, took the fight against green rules to a whole new level.
www.politico.eu
February 16, 2026 at 9:54 PM
The ETS is the most important and successful climate policy of the EU. It provides a market-based, predictable and stable way to transition to a sustainable economy. If EU truly wants to regain competitiveness, killing the ETS would be the worst thing you could do. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
"With significant reserves of lithium, rare earth elements, and other valuable minerals like zinc and beryllium, Nigeria is positioned to become a key player in the global mineral supply chain." www.sfa-oxford.com/lithox/criti...
February 16, 2026 at 7:38 PM
"With significant reserves of lithium, rare earth elements, and other valuable minerals like zinc and beryllium, Nigeria is positioned to become a key player in the global mineral supply chain." www.sfa-oxford.com/lithox/criti...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Canada is looking to buy 300,000 new rifles and create a 400,000-strong supplementary reserve force of Canadian citizen soldiers. #ICYMI www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/...
Scott Taylor: The rush to rearm the Canadian Army
Replacing 40-year-old rifles should not cause consternation among even the most ardent peace advocates, says Scott Taylor.
www.saltwire.com
February 13, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Canada is looking to buy 300,000 new rifles and create a 400,000-strong supplementary reserve force of Canadian citizen soldiers. #ICYMI www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Munich 2026 -a benchmark for Europe’s transformation
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
President Zelenskyy:
Ukraine didn’t choose this war& it's wrong to assume that this is a permanent arrangement that others can stay safe behind Ukraine forever.Ukrainians are people,not terminators.
Ukraine didn’t choose this war& it's wrong to assume that this is a permanent arrangement that others can stay safe behind Ukraine forever.Ukrainians are people,not terminators.
February 16, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Munich 2026 -a benchmark for Europe’s transformation
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Macroeconomic bill for RU's dependence on oil, gas, coal, grain, and metals exports under financial sanctions keeps rising. 2026 will likely be worst year regardless of whether individual or groups of commodities perform well, bringing in more $
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
Burning Down the House – Riddle Russia
Nick Trickett on Russia’s commodity dependence in 2026
ridl.io
February 16, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Macroeconomic bill for RU's dependence on oil, gas, coal, grain, and metals exports under financial sanctions keeps rising. 2026 will likely be worst year regardless of whether individual or groups of commodities perform well, bringing in more $
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
No laughing matter.
February 16, 2026 at 7:32 PM
No laughing matter.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Many Kyivans have special go-bags in case they have to run for bomb shelter and, crucially, SLEEP there (or at least stay warm and reasonably relaxed).👇
Planning a "night out" in Kyiv these days be like, since the temperatures are heavily freezing again, while terrorussia-that-wants-peace is preparing another massive missile strike as per monitoring channels.
February 16, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Many Kyivans have special go-bags in case they have to run for bomb shelter and, crucially, SLEEP there (or at least stay warm and reasonably relaxed).👇
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Today’s movement has been one of the largest USAF fighter deployments to the Middle East we have ever tracked.
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
USAF Deploys 18 F-35A from Lakenheath to the Middle East, Marking One of the Largest Recent Lightning II Movements
At 1400z on 16 February, eighteen F-35A Lightning II of the 495th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath departed for the Middle East, supported by a significant tanker package from RAF Mildenhall. The ai...
www.itamilradar.com
February 16, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Today’s movement has been one of the largest USAF fighter deployments to the Middle East we have ever tracked.
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
If it's Lavrov NOW would be a good time to strike targets in Tehran. #justsaying
February 16, 2026 at 6:59 PM
If it's Lavrov NOW would be a good time to strike targets in Tehran. #justsaying
Reposted by Andy Scollick
"Charlie don't surf!"
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
Apocalypse Now | The Smell Of Napalm In The Morning | Starring Robert Duvall
YouTube video by StudiocanalUK
www.youtube.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
"Charlie don't surf!"
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌