Andy Scollick
@andyscollick.bsky.social
Strategic foresight analyst: future security environment, defence policy, strategic planning, warfare development | Climate-energy-defence interactions | Former adviser to Ukraine's military | PhD in complex adaptive systems, sustainability and governance
Pinned
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
This is a terrible headline!
Adapting to a 3C hotter world is not 'daunting but doable'. We need to be doing everything we can to avoid such a catastrophic future, while heavily investing in adaptation.
Adapting to a 3C hotter world is not 'daunting but doable'. We need to be doing everything we can to avoid such a catastrophic future, while heavily investing in adaptation.
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 12:33 PM
This is a terrible headline!
Adapting to a 3C hotter world is not 'daunting but doable'. We need to be doing everything we can to avoid such a catastrophic future, while heavily investing in adaptation.
Adapting to a 3C hotter world is not 'daunting but doable'. We need to be doing everything we can to avoid such a catastrophic future, while heavily investing in adaptation.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Russia has stepped up its hybrid threat activities and seems willing to take greater risks in the area surrounding Sweden, the head of Sweden's military intelligence said.
Russia increasing hybrid threats, says Sweden's military
Russia has stepped up its hybrid threat activities and seems willing to take greater risks in the area surrounding Sweden, the head of Sweden's military intelligence said.
www.rte.ie
February 17, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Russia has stepped up its hybrid threat activities and seems willing to take greater risks in the area surrounding Sweden, the head of Sweden's military intelligence said.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Significant shift in airpower posture
US F-35 stealth fighters have left RAF Lakenheath — believed to be bound for the Middle East
As many as 18 aircraft were involved amid rising regional tensions🔗⬇️
US F-35 stealth fighters have left RAF Lakenheath — believed to be bound for the Middle East
As many as 18 aircraft were involved amid rising regional tensions🔗⬇️
Strikes on Iran could last for weeks as more F-35s fly into the region, US says
Up to 18 of the fifth-generation jets are thought to have been deployed to the region from the UK as tensions continue to escalate
www.forcesnews.com
February 17, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Significant shift in airpower posture
US F-35 stealth fighters have left RAF Lakenheath — believed to be bound for the Middle East
As many as 18 aircraft were involved amid rising regional tensions🔗⬇️
US F-35 stealth fighters have left RAF Lakenheath — believed to be bound for the Middle East
As many as 18 aircraft were involved amid rising regional tensions🔗⬇️
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Spain approves $8 billion in aid for storm-battered regions reut.rs/4qEYC5i
Spain approves $8 billion in aid for storm-battered regions
The Spanish government approved financial aid worth around 7 billion euros ($8 billion) on Tuesday for people affected by the storms that battered the Extremadura and Andalusia regions in the past weeks.
reut.rs
February 17, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Spain approves $8 billion in aid for storm-battered regions reut.rs/4qEYC5i
Reposted by Andy Scollick
A crucial fact too few Europeans know:
Ukraine produces far more drones and inexpensive cruise missiles than the entire EU combined, yet it still doesn’t have enough.
What does it say about Europe’s capabilities?
We urgently need to step up
Ukraine produces far more drones and inexpensive cruise missiles than the entire EU combined, yet it still doesn’t have enough.
What does it say about Europe’s capabilities?
We urgently need to step up
February 17, 2026 at 9:24 AM
A crucial fact too few Europeans know:
Ukraine produces far more drones and inexpensive cruise missiles than the entire EU combined, yet it still doesn’t have enough.
What does it say about Europe’s capabilities?
We urgently need to step up
Ukraine produces far more drones and inexpensive cruise missiles than the entire EU combined, yet it still doesn’t have enough.
What does it say about Europe’s capabilities?
We urgently need to step up
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Read to the end of this devastating expose’. I have one very important fact to add to it:the ‘Ecosystem collapse and national security’ report published (reluctantly, silently) by the Govt is an iceberg: there is another chunk of the report that remains unpublished.
open.substack.com/pub/abolishw...
open.substack.com/pub/abolishw...
How the British military props up the oil industry
And how the oil industry influences the Ministry of Defence (long read)
open.substack.com
February 17, 2026 at 12:32 PM
Read to the end of this devastating expose’. I have one very important fact to add to it:the ‘Ecosystem collapse and national security’ report published (reluctantly, silently) by the Govt is an iceberg: there is another chunk of the report that remains unpublished.
open.substack.com/pub/abolishw...
open.substack.com/pub/abolishw...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Tipping points of the #Antarctic ice sheet revealed!
Temperatures of 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica once the ice sheet fully responds.
Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.
Temperatures of 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica once the ice sheet fully responds.
Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.
🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
February 16, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Tipping points of the #Antarctic ice sheet revealed!
Temperatures of 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica once the ice sheet fully responds.
Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.
Temperatures of 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica once the ice sheet fully responds.
Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
🌡️ For the third year in a row, every day in 2025 was more than 1°C warmer than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. Over a third of days were above 1.5°C.
⬇️
⬇️
February 17, 2026 at 9:30 AM
🌡️ For the third year in a row, every day in 2025 was more than 1°C warmer than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. Over a third of days were above 1.5°C.
⬇️
⬇️
Reposted by Andy Scollick
In our IPQ special issue @james-rogers.bsky.social of @congeostrategy.bsky.social explains why much closer British-German military cooperation provides a strong strategic answer to Europe‘s security situation. Do read it here:
ip-quarterly.com/en/geostrate...
ip-quarterly.com/en/geostrate...
Geostrategic Refresh: Europe in a New World
Britain and Germany should forge a military partnership to shape the arc from Greenland to the Black Sea.
ip-quarterly.com
February 17, 2026 at 11:38 AM
In our IPQ special issue @james-rogers.bsky.social of @congeostrategy.bsky.social explains why much closer British-German military cooperation provides a strong strategic answer to Europe‘s security situation. Do read it here:
ip-quarterly.com/en/geostrate...
ip-quarterly.com/en/geostrate...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Researchers are already warning Europe to prepare for a 3°C world.
I have significant criticisms of this news article. It discusses extreme weather and heat, but ignores the cascading impacts of 3°C on biodiversity, food systems, and tipping points.
But what is true is that 3°C is headed our way
I have significant criticisms of this news article. It discusses extreme weather and heat, but ignores the cascading impacts of 3°C on biodiversity, food systems, and tipping points.
But what is true is that 3°C is headed our way
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 11:14 AM
Researchers are already warning Europe to prepare for a 3°C world.
I have significant criticisms of this news article. It discusses extreme weather and heat, but ignores the cascading impacts of 3°C on biodiversity, food systems, and tipping points.
But what is true is that 3°C is headed our way
I have significant criticisms of this news article. It discusses extreme weather and heat, but ignores the cascading impacts of 3°C on biodiversity, food systems, and tipping points.
But what is true is that 3°C is headed our way
Reposted by Andy Scollick
We've recently supported the Ukrainian government in developing guidance for documenting how war and occupation have impacted its Emerald Network nature reserves.🧵 ceobs.org/new-guidance... #Ukraine #biodiversity 1/4
New guidance for documenting war’s impact on nature - CEOBS
CEOBS recently supported the Ukrainian government in documenting how the war has impacted its Emerald Network nature reserves.
ceobs.org
February 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM
We've recently supported the Ukrainian government in developing guidance for documenting how war and occupation have impacted its Emerald Network nature reserves.🧵 ceobs.org/new-guidance... #Ukraine #biodiversity 1/4
Reposted by Andy Scollick
There's an direct analogy to be drawn here with the civic planners of the 60s, 70s & 80s who sought to reassure the public that their government had plans to reboot society in the aftermath of a nuclear war... sociologists label them "Fantasy documents"!
As discussed in this podcast...
As discussed in this podcast...
February 17, 2026 at 12:07 PM
There's an direct analogy to be drawn here with the civic planners of the 60s, 70s & 80s who sought to reassure the public that their government had plans to reboot society in the aftermath of a nuclear war... sociologists label them "Fantasy documents"!
As discussed in this podcast...
As discussed in this podcast...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Much of the world becomes increasingly unliveable at a global average of 3C. We have not begun to grapple with the reality of this. There are solutions as I describe in my book #NomadCentury
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
- Advisory board member says Europe already paying price for lack of preparation but adapting is ‘not rocket science’
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
- Advisory board member says Europe already paying price for lack of preparation but adapting is ‘not rocket science’
#climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Much of the world becomes increasingly unliveable at a global average of 3C. We have not begun to grapple with the reality of this. There are solutions as I describe in my book #NomadCentury
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The ship raises questions about shifting logistics for Russian gas shipments as European sanctions tighten.
#Russia #LNG #ShadowFleet #EU #Sanctions #Arctic
#Russia #LNG #ShadowFleet #EU #Sanctions #Arctic
Chinese LNG Carrier Linked to Russian Arctic Gas Trade Circles Off Norway for a Month
An LNG carrier tied to Russia’s Arctic gas trade has spent nearly a month circling off the central Norwegian coast near Trondheim with no announced destination, raising questions about shifting logist...
en.highnorthnews.com
February 17, 2026 at 7:48 AM
The ship raises questions about shifting logistics for Russian gas shipments as European sanctions tighten.
#Russia #LNG #ShadowFleet #EU #Sanctions #Arctic
#Russia #LNG #ShadowFleet #EU #Sanctions #Arctic
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Stürme, Überschwemmungen und Hitze werden mit zunehmender Erderhitzung häufiger und heftiger. Während die globale Durchschnittstemperatur seit Beginn der Industrialisierung um etwa 1,4 Grad gestiegen ist, ist Europa ungefähr 2,4 Grad heißer geworden.
Leugnen bringt’s nicht.
www.taz.de/!6154994
Leugnen bringt’s nicht.
www.taz.de/!6154994
Klimawandel „höhlt Fundament der EU aus“: EU-Expert*innen fordern Anpassung an 3 Grad Erderhitzung
Der wissenschaftliche Klimabeirat der EU fordert eine einheitliche Strategie zur Klimaanpassung. Die werde aber ohne Klimaschutz nicht ausreichen.
www.taz.de
February 17, 2026 at 7:50 AM
Stürme, Überschwemmungen und Hitze werden mit zunehmender Erderhitzung häufiger und heftiger. Während die globale Durchschnittstemperatur seit Beginn der Industrialisierung um etwa 1,4 Grad gestiegen ist, ist Europa ungefähr 2,4 Grad heißer geworden.
Leugnen bringt’s nicht.
www.taz.de/!6154994
Leugnen bringt’s nicht.
www.taz.de/!6154994
We absolutely have to plan and, significantly, prepare for 3°C
And that means preparing to relocate and accommodate hundreds of millions of people.
And that means providing state armed forces protection for hundreds of millions of people.
3°C means violence and war. Lots of it.
And that means preparing to relocate and accommodate hundreds of millions of people.
And that means providing state armed forces protection for hundreds of millions of people.
3°C means violence and war. Lots of it.
Planning for ~3C isn’t “giving up” on 1.5C. It’s realistic risk management.
Europe is already feeling the impacts. Current adaptation plans aren’t enough. The message: act now on resilience, heat, floods, infrastructure, or pay far higher costs later.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Europe is already feeling the impacts. Current adaptation plans aren’t enough. The message: act now on resilience, heat, floods, infrastructure, or pay far higher costs later.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 7:52 AM
We absolutely have to plan and, significantly, prepare for 3°C
And that means preparing to relocate and accommodate hundreds of millions of people.
And that means providing state armed forces protection for hundreds of millions of people.
3°C means violence and war. Lots of it.
And that means preparing to relocate and accommodate hundreds of millions of people.
And that means providing state armed forces protection for hundreds of millions of people.
3°C means violence and war. Lots of it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
'Germany says it has exhausted its own air defence missile stocks for Ukraine: We gave everything we had' www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
Germany says it has exhausted its own air defence missile stocks for Ukraine: We gave everything we had
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul says Berlin has effectively exhausted its own stocks of air defence missiles for Ukraine and is now relying on newly produced systems financed by European partn...
www.pravda.com.ua
February 17, 2026 at 6:52 AM
'Germany says it has exhausted its own air defence missile stocks for Ukraine: We gave everything we had' www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
"Doable", but for whom?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 7:34 AM
"Doable", but for whom?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Yes, governments can and must prepare for the hellscape of hunger, mass displacement, forced migration, widespread violence, breakdown of authority and armed conflicts that come with a 3°C hotter world.
But who will survive? Who will be protected? For whom is this "doable"?
Reposted by Andy Scollick
"‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating"
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 1:47 AM
"‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating"
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
I can scarcely believe what I am reading, that adapting to 3C of warming is "doable". Only someone who doesn't understand what 3C of warming actually means, could think it "doable".
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
1/🧵
Reposted by Andy Scollick
OKAY BIG ONE FOR YA
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
February 17, 2026 at 6:48 AM
OKAY BIG ONE FOR YA
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone....
Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!!
ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>
Reposted by Andy Scollick
My professional opinion as an ecologist
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
In mid-latitudes, 1°C warming shifts climate belts >150km away from equator, toward poles
Closer to the poles means bigger shift
Most plant, animal species, etc live in 2°C temp range
In WA, 2°C moves Margaret River and Karri forest 300 km south
What's 300km south for you?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Closer to the poles means bigger shift
Most plant, animal species, etc live in 2°C temp range
In WA, 2°C moves Margaret River and Karri forest 300 km south
What's 300km south for you?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
February 17, 2026 at 1:01 AM
My professional opinion as an ecologist
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
3°C heating takes out most biodiversity on planet Earth
Most species live in less than a 2°C range of climate zones
A brief explainer
bsky.app/profile/prof...
"Doable"? Van Aalst has a strange sense of humour. He doesn't even mention the hugely increased violence, civil disorder, breakdown of governance and armed conflict that will likely come with a 3°C world. But yes, we can and must prepare for it.
‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating
Advisory board member says adapting is ‘not rocket science’ but Europe already paying price for lack of preparation
www.theguardian.com
February 17, 2026 at 4:44 AM
"Doable"? Van Aalst has a strange sense of humour. He doesn't even mention the hugely increased violence, civil disorder, breakdown of governance and armed conflict that will likely come with a 3°C world. But yes, we can and must prepare for it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Hours before peace talks in Geneva, virtually all of democratic Ukraine is under threat of attack by fascist Russia’s drones and missiles, yet Trump doesn’t criticize Kremlin dictator Putin - it’s “Ukraine better come to the table.”
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
February 17, 2026 at 4:30 AM
Hours before peace talks in Geneva, virtually all of democratic Ukraine is under threat of attack by fascist Russia’s drones and missiles, yet Trump doesn’t criticize Kremlin dictator Putin - it’s “Ukraine better come to the table.”
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
America has fallen so very far, so very fast.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since mid-2023
Ukraine reclaims 201 square kilometers in five days as Russia struggles without Starlink
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of
territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since
mid-2023, AFP reported
on Feb. 16, citing an analysis by the Insti...
english.nv.ua
February 17, 2026 at 12:18 AM
Ukraine’s defense forces regained 201 square kilometers of territory between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, their fastest pace of advance since mid-2023
Reposted by Andy Scollick
❗️❗️Takeoff of a group of strategic bombers Tu-95MS, the planes are heading towards the launch lines.
February 16, 2026 at 10:46 PM
❗️❗️Takeoff of a group of strategic bombers Tu-95MS, the planes are heading towards the launch lines.