Andy Scollick
@andyscollick.bsky.social
Strategic foresight analyst: future security environment, defence policy, strategic planning, warfare development | Climate-energy-defence interactions | Former adviser to Ukraine's military | PhD in complex adaptive systems, sustainability and governance
Pinned
The best kind of insurance is fully comprehensive insurance.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
The best kind of security is fully comprehensive security.
There is no security without:
🔹 Human (individual)
🔹 National (civil, military, defence)
🔹 Collective (international)
🔹 Energy
🔹 Climate and
🔹 Food security.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
British and German chiefs of defence publish a joint oped warning their populations of Russia and arguing for a “whole-of-society approach and an honest, continent-wide conversation with the public that defence cannot be the preserve of uniformed personnel alone.“
As defence chiefs, we warn you today about Russia, and say this rearmament is not warmongering | Richard Knighton and Carsten Breuer
Our security is more uncertain than in decades. But by working together, and by showing strength, Britain, Germany and the rest of Europe can preserve peace, say defence chiefs Richard Knighton and Ca...
www.theguardian.com
February 16, 2026 at 7:57 PM
British and German chiefs of defence publish a joint oped warning their populations of Russia and arguing for a “whole-of-society approach and an honest, continent-wide conversation with the public that defence cannot be the preserve of uniformed personnel alone.“
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Croatia suspended all Russian oil supplies from its main terminal port at Adriatic coast in Krk to Hungary.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
February 16, 2026 at 9:41 PM
Croatia suspended all Russian oil supplies from its main terminal port at Adriatic coast in Krk to Hungary.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar says that he is willing to allow oil supplies to Hungary, if it originates from countries other than Russia.
At present. However, Europe could choose to extend its own umbrella based on France's nuclear deterrent (La Force de Dissuasion). And it could do it relatively rapidly. And we must. Before Russia beats us to it, by invading deeper into the east, and the Americans allow Russia to do it.
Germany’s Foreign Min Johann Wadephul on Europe: “We are only capable of defending ourselves together with the USA, not alone.
“Without the nuclear umbrella of the USA, without the secret service information from the USA, we are not capable of defending ourselves here.
“That is the pure reality.”
“Without the nuclear umbrella of the USA, without the secret service information from the USA, we are not capable of defending ourselves here.
“That is the pure reality.”
February 16, 2026 at 10:10 PM
At present. However, Europe could choose to extend its own umbrella based on France's nuclear deterrent (La Force de Dissuasion). And it could do it relatively rapidly. And we must. Before Russia beats us to it, by invading deeper into the east, and the Americans allow Russia to do it.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
February 16, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Remember when Rubio criticised Hungary's democratic backsliding?
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
What changed? Certainly not Hungary's democratic backsliding
Reposted by Andy Scollick
The ETS is the most important and successful climate policy of the EU. It provides a market-based, predictable and stable way to transition to a sustainable economy. If EU truly wants to regain competitiveness, killing the ETS would be the worst thing you could do. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
The week the EU’s climate foundations started to shake
An assault on Europe’s most important climate law, the Emissions Trading System, took the fight against green rules to a whole new level.
www.politico.eu
February 16, 2026 at 9:54 PM
The ETS is the most important and successful climate policy of the EU. It provides a market-based, predictable and stable way to transition to a sustainable economy. If EU truly wants to regain competitiveness, killing the ETS would be the worst thing you could do. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
"With significant reserves of lithium, rare earth elements, and other valuable minerals like zinc and beryllium, Nigeria is positioned to become a key player in the global mineral supply chain." www.sfa-oxford.com/lithox/criti...
February 16, 2026 at 7:38 PM
"With significant reserves of lithium, rare earth elements, and other valuable minerals like zinc and beryllium, Nigeria is positioned to become a key player in the global mineral supply chain." www.sfa-oxford.com/lithox/criti...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Canada is looking to buy 300,000 new rifles and create a 400,000-strong supplementary reserve force of Canadian citizen soldiers. #ICYMI www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/...
Scott Taylor: The rush to rearm the Canadian Army
Replacing 40-year-old rifles should not cause consternation among even the most ardent peace advocates, says Scott Taylor.
www.saltwire.com
February 13, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Canada is looking to buy 300,000 new rifles and create a 400,000-strong supplementary reserve force of Canadian citizen soldiers. #ICYMI www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Munich 2026 -a benchmark for Europe’s transformation
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
President Zelenskyy:
Ukraine didn’t choose this war& it's wrong to assume that this is a permanent arrangement that others can stay safe behind Ukraine forever.Ukrainians are people,not terminators.
Ukraine didn’t choose this war& it's wrong to assume that this is a permanent arrangement that others can stay safe behind Ukraine forever.Ukrainians are people,not terminators.
February 16, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Munich 2026 -a benchmark for Europe’s transformation
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Some reflections.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference marked the moment when Europe stopped pretending that "things will somehow work out." ⤵️
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Macroeconomic bill for RU's dependence on oil, gas, coal, grain, and metals exports under financial sanctions keeps rising. 2026 will likely be worst year regardless of whether individual or groups of commodities perform well, bringing in more $
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
Burning Down the House – Riddle Russia
Nick Trickett on Russia’s commodity dependence in 2026
ridl.io
February 16, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Macroeconomic bill for RU's dependence on oil, gas, coal, grain, and metals exports under financial sanctions keeps rising. 2026 will likely be worst year regardless of whether individual or groups of commodities perform well, bringing in more $
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/burning-down...
No laughing matter.
February 16, 2026 at 7:32 PM
No laughing matter.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Many Kyivans have special go-bags in case they have to run for bomb shelter and, crucially, SLEEP there (or at least stay warm and reasonably relaxed).👇
Planning a "night out" in Kyiv these days be like, since the temperatures are heavily freezing again, while terrorussia-that-wants-peace is preparing another massive missile strike as per monitoring channels.
February 16, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Many Kyivans have special go-bags in case they have to run for bomb shelter and, crucially, SLEEP there (or at least stay warm and reasonably relaxed).👇
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Today’s movement has been one of the largest USAF fighter deployments to the Middle East we have ever tracked.
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
USAF Deploys 18 F-35A from Lakenheath to the Middle East, Marking One of the Largest Recent Lightning II Movements
At 1400z on 16 February, eighteen F-35A Lightning II of the 495th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath departed for the Middle East, supported by a significant tanker package from RAF Mildenhall. The ai...
www.itamilradar.com
February 16, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Today’s movement has been one of the largest USAF fighter deployments to the Middle East we have ever tracked.
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
www.itamilradar.com/2026/02/16/u...
If it's Lavrov NOW would be a good time to strike targets in Tehran. #justsaying
February 16, 2026 at 6:59 PM
If it's Lavrov NOW would be a good time to strike targets in Tehran. #justsaying
Reposted by Andy Scollick
"Charlie don't surf!"
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
Apocalypse Now | The Smell Of Napalm In The Morning | Starring Robert Duvall
YouTube video by StudiocanalUK
www.youtube.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
"Charlie don't surf!"
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
R.I.P. Robert Duvall 🙌
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Remember: Viktor Orban has built a corrupt, stagnant Hungary that is much poorer than it should be
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
America’s Future Is Hungary
MAGA conservatives love Viktor Orbán. But he’s left his country corrupt, stagnant, and impoverished.
www.theatlantic.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Remember: Viktor Orban has built a corrupt, stagnant Hungary that is much poorer than it should be
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Robert Duvall was a vigorous and subtle actor who always performed with passion and conviction
Robert Duvall was a vigorous and subtle actor who always performed with passion and conviction
From his steely self-effacing consigliere in The Godfather to his surf-crazed Wagner enthusiast in Apocalypse Now, just to see him on screen made me smile
www.theguardian.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Robert Duvall was a vigorous and subtle actor who always performed with passion and conviction
Good friend of mine, Myko One, took a Russian bullet in his shoulder when he sped into No Man's Land to rescue a cat near Shyrokyne in 2015. He saved the cat and had her taken home by volunteers to his wife and kids.
Myko was killed by Russian artillery while defending Kharkiv on 28 Feb 2022.
Myko was killed by Russian artillery while defending Kharkiv on 28 Feb 2022.
"What cat were you provided with in the Armed Forces of Ukraine?"
Ukrainian Defenders share photos with their cats on the front line
📷: hermano.dh_ /fanatic_oleg / sylenko_ju / dr_karpiuk /nemetz_82 /leonia_veremeyenko / markus_panda / shwainokaras /viktortrofymenko / stalnytskanata /edelweiss_ua/
Ukrainian Defenders share photos with their cats on the front line
📷: hermano.dh_ /fanatic_oleg / sylenko_ju / dr_karpiuk /nemetz_82 /leonia_veremeyenko / markus_panda / shwainokaras /viktortrofymenko / stalnytskanata /edelweiss_ua/
February 16, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Good friend of mine, Myko One, took a Russian bullet in his shoulder when he sped into No Man's Land to rescue a cat near Shyrokyne in 2015. He saved the cat and had her taken home by volunteers to his wife and kids.
Myko was killed by Russian artillery while defending Kharkiv on 28 Feb 2022.
Myko was killed by Russian artillery while defending Kharkiv on 28 Feb 2022.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Europe’s path to security without the US ft.trib.al/41a4o6j | opinion
Europe’s path to security without the US
The heads of Nato and EU Commission offer competing visions. Both have a point
ft.trib.al
February 16, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Europe’s path to security without the US ft.trib.al/41a4o6j | opinion
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Antarctica isn’t one big tipping point.
New research maps 18 separate ice basins, each with its own threshold. Some in West Antarctica may tip at just ~1–2C warming (i.e close to today’s levels).
Cross the line, and you commit to m’s of sea-level rise over centuries
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New research maps 18 separate ice basins, each with its own threshold. Some in West Antarctica may tip at just ~1–2C warming (i.e close to today’s levels).
Cross the line, and you commit to m’s of sea-level rise over centuries
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming - Nature Climate Change
Climate change threatens the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here the authors show that individual drainage basins have different thresholds and loss patterns, suggesting the need to consider the d...
www.nature.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Antarctica isn’t one big tipping point.
New research maps 18 separate ice basins, each with its own threshold. Some in West Antarctica may tip at just ~1–2C warming (i.e close to today’s levels).
Cross the line, and you commit to m’s of sea-level rise over centuries
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New research maps 18 separate ice basins, each with its own threshold. Some in West Antarctica may tip at just ~1–2C warming (i.e close to today’s levels).
Cross the line, and you commit to m’s of sea-level rise over centuries
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Noem admits that the reason for placing armed and masked ICE agents at polling stations this November is to ensure only MAGA Repubs can vote.
They don't need to patrol every voting place. Blocking voters from a relatively small number of heavily democratic precincts can flip election outcomes.
They don't need to patrol every voting place. Blocking voters from a relatively small number of heavily democratic precincts can flip election outcomes.
February 16, 2026 at 6:44 PM
Noem admits that the reason for placing armed and masked ICE agents at polling stations this November is to ensure only MAGA Repubs can vote.
They don't need to patrol every voting place. Blocking voters from a relatively small number of heavily democratic precincts can flip election outcomes.
They don't need to patrol every voting place. Blocking voters from a relatively small number of heavily democratic precincts can flip election outcomes.
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Yes we do need to 'go faster', and funnily enough Sir Keir, as Prime Minister you are the one person who can make it happen.
So maybe.... make it happen?
So maybe.... make it happen?
Keir Starmer says Britain needs to ‘go faster’ on defence spending
Prime minister is said to be examining how to bring forward plans to spend 3 per cent of UK GDP on military
www.ft.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Yes we do need to 'go faster', and funnily enough Sir Keir, as Prime Minister you are the one person who can make it happen.
So maybe.... make it happen?
So maybe.... make it happen?
RIP Lieutenant Colonel William "Bill" Kilgore, aka Robert Duvall
February 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM
RIP Lieutenant Colonel William "Bill" Kilgore, aka Robert Duvall
Reposted by Andy Scollick
Aligning with the Single Market isn't enough - fully joining both the Single Market and Customs Union would reduce duplication, cut costs, and help UK businesses trade more easily and confidently across Europe. The longer we delay taking action, the longer businesses are going to suffer.
February 16, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Aligning with the Single Market isn't enough - fully joining both the Single Market and Customs Union would reduce duplication, cut costs, and help UK businesses trade more easily and confidently across Europe. The longer we delay taking action, the longer businesses are going to suffer.
Would like to see 'defence spending' upgraded, properly funded and reframed as 'spending on comprehensive security'.
You cannot have human (individual) security without national (civil, military, defence), collective (international), energy, food and climate security.
It's all one system.
You cannot have human (individual) security without national (civil, military, defence), collective (international), energy, food and climate security.
It's all one system.
Germany calls on France to increase defence spending
Foreign minister puts pressure on Emmanuel Macron amid doubts over US’s commitment to European defence
www.theguardian.com
February 16, 2026 at 6:38 PM
Would like to see 'defence spending' upgraded, properly funded and reframed as 'spending on comprehensive security'.
You cannot have human (individual) security without national (civil, military, defence), collective (international), energy, food and climate security.
It's all one system.
You cannot have human (individual) security without national (civil, military, defence), collective (international), energy, food and climate security.
It's all one system.